In the wake of the Capitol storming, many people are now leaving the Republican Party. This NPR article gives some scary numbers. More than 4,600 Republicans removed their names from the Party in Colorado. 6,000 in North Carolina, 10,000 in Pennsylvania, and 5,000 in Arizona. And in red Utah, as many as 7,600. As one defector says,"it's just become the party of mean people." Another one says, "I would probably never vote for another Republican again." Yet another person defected because the Republican Party "turned their backs completely on Trump."
According to this Reuters article, over 60 former W. Bush officials have left the Party -- one saying, "The Republican Party as I knew it no longer exists. I'd call it the cult of Trump."
I left, myself, in January 2016, saying, "If this is what the Republican Party is becoming, I want no part of it." I changed my status to Unaffiliated. At the time I was very sad not to have a conservative party to call my own (a topic for later).
So, what's going on? Is the Republican Party falling apart? Will it continue to bleed members? Can the Party save itself? Perhaps, but by my reckoning, they must act now. One thing's for certain -- this exodus really did happen because of one man -- Donald Trump. Whether they like him or not, people are leaving either because they didn't want the Republican Party to incorporate Trump and his controversial policies, or because they feel the Party abandoned Trump. So ... yeah ... Trump, Trump, Trump.
In my specific case, if it had been just about any other candidate in 2016: Rubio, Carson, or even Cruz, I would have voted Republican -- 99% chance. I definitely did not want Hilary, and instead voted third party.
In 2020 I would have again most likely voted for any other candidate other than Trump or anyone who supported his controversial policies. Instead I chose to vote Biden, hoping the Republican Party would reboot and pick someone else for 2024.
I realize that most of my intended audience still likes Trump, and he did indeed accomplish some amazing things that only he could get away with: brokering a deal in the Middle East, diffusing the situation in North Korea. I get it.
But we've got to face it. Trump will never be president again. He's not going to get anywhere enough votes after the storming of the Capitol. You can see here that his average approval rating dropped like a rock just a couple of days after the event. Sure, he'd get his 30% base, but no independent, and definitely no Democrat is going to vote for man they believe tried to overturn the election along with the Constitution with very flimsy evidence of election fraud.
This also goes for any prominent Republican who supported Trump and his "Big Lie." That's what the majority of people are calling the whole election turnover attempt. Cruz and Hawley have absolutely no chance, and heaven forbid if Greene ever runs. While you may like these guys and would actually want them in the White House, I don't think they're electable. I sure wouldn't vote for any of them now.
Also, imagine this scenario: Trump, or someone else, breaks off and forms their own "Patriot" Party. What do you think would happen? That's right. The conservative vote would split. I'd probably vote Republican, a lot of you would vote for Trump, and the Democrats would win. 2024. 2028. And even 2032 ... we're looking at possibly two decades of Democrats enjoying free rein in our government before conservatives get their act together, and by then, good luck to our economy.
So How Can the Party Survive?
We first need to realize the true cause of the Republican Party's wound. It's not really Trump -- he's just the face of the real issue. When other people look at the Party, all they see is Inconsistency.
In late 2015 as Trump was pushing his presidential bid, most of the prominent Republican candidates were unified in their condemnation of Trump. They called him racist, xenophobic, radical, uncouth, and unelectable. They considered him to be a joke.
This was until December 2015 when Trump described his Muslim ban. At first everyone condemned this idea -- even Cruz. But then something happened. The candidates saw Trump's base increasing, and I think they did what they thought was best for their own careers. One candidate said, "Wait -- let's listen to Trump. He might be on to something with this ban." And then everything changed.
Trump didn't change -- the Republican Party changed and incorporated Trump and his controversial policies. The Party had first condemned Trump, and then they lost their spines. At least that's what the majority of the world is saying.
The number of conservatives who stayed consistent were few. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio continued to stand up to Trump throughout the election. Senator Romney stood up to Trump several times over the past four years, even voting to remove him from office. Senator Flake stood up to slow down the Kavanaugh hearings, and now retired, continues to criticize Trump.
These consistent few are held to be pariahs among most of the members of the Republican Party, but for a big chunk of frustrated conservatives (like me) and the rest of the world, these people are being held as heroes and exemplary models of integrity. These people actually have a spine!
And this is exactly where I see the Party surviving. Imagine if, for 2024, the Republicans put forth someone like Romney (he may be too old, himself) -- someone who people on the left might actually vote for. (Many Democrats have indeed said that they like Romney.)
Just think about it. Put on your game theory hats. If, as a Party, you had to choose between a nameless candidate who you knew would only get 30% of the vote, and another nameless one who could possibly get 60%, which one would you choose?
So ... if the Party is to survive, it needs to let go of Trump. It was a failed experiment that resulted in all power being taken away after four years (which is exactly what I had predicted in January 2016 would happen). Condemning Trump's election "Big Lie" and the resulting riot on the Capitol is the bare minimum for survival. Perhaps even someone like Cruz could find a way to redeem himself.
And then ... put forth a person in 2024 with so much integrity and leadership skills for whom it would be difficult NOT to vote.
It's up to you guys. You could stick with the man you love -- it's very easy to love Trump. But is it worth loving him more than the possibility of getting a conservative back in power? I believe there is somebody better. Does it really have to be Trump, when someone better could have a bigger chance of winning back the presidency?
Just think about it.
