Is It No Longer Okay to Wax Politically?

 

It's been a while since I've posted here. By far, the number one reason is because I've been so gosh darn busy on other pursuits. In particular, I've made great strides in my music business, putting in more hours this year than ever before. (You should check out my first album -- just search for "Mel Windham" in your favorite streaming service.) I've learned that the less I wax politically, the more I get done in my own personal life. The progress is much more enjoyable than the feeling of participating in political discussions.

I must also admit a second reason. Now that I'm becoming more visible in the music world, I've found that I need to behave -- in a sense. If I'm going around social media attacking anyone's political beliefs, they can then ban my business -- they can tell their friends, and then it'd be good luck getting my products sold.

But ultimately, I think deep down, I'm just tired of the current toxic political environment. I'm shocked to see reports of people losing their jobs over saying what I believe were reasonable ideas and/or objections. And how often do people say: this CEO supports that political cause, so we're going to ban her business? I've seen some go into bankruptcies over items that were not much more than simple misunderstandings. How did things get this bad?

I mostly left Twitter a few months ago and immediately felt happier in life. Like a big burden lifted. Do I really need this stuff in my life?

Nevertheless -- I do still have strong political views on certain items -- but I'm learning to keep them in check. I value my friendships more than I do being correct in political discussions. I have a good friend at work where we would get into the most intense political discussions, even scaring onlookers -- only to eat lunch with him one hour later, relaxing with non-political topics. I try to keep my friendships going despite our differences. But nevertheless -- I do notice that I've lost quite a big chunk of friends in the past couple of years who just can't associate with people who believe the way I do.

It's like we've all become precious snowflakes.

Then again, politics has served to be a good filter for me to learn who my true friends are. And believe me -- I have a LOT of respect for anyone who disagrees with me on so many items and still keeps me around. (A hint: we all disagree with any other random person on SOME deeply held belief -- if we knew the full truth, would we have any friends left?)

But still -- in today's environment, I no longer feel safe saying ... well ... anything. Even that good friend I mentioned from work -- we no longer talk politics -- we both know the environment is just too toxic.

Those who know me know how well I make friends, and how I get my friends to become friends with each other. I am the ultimate moderate. I always strive to accentuate the items where we agree on things -- and when you think about it -- if you were to pick a random person, you're both likely to agree 90% on just about everything. I've even had one person tell me at work: "we'll never be friends" only to now be friends -- well maybe good acquaintances. Funny thing is: today this friend and I are near 100% in agreement on political items, as we have both matured in our beliefs. We're both moderates now.

The problem: there is just so much HATE. Say the wrong buzz word, and all hell rains down. Then there is nothing you can say to be forgiven. It all reminds me of my favorite nightmare: where I'm in heaven, but we can still make mistakes -- and if we make just one mistake, that's it -- down to hell. And the nightmare was how much everyone hated being in heaven, and we were afraid to do ... just about anything.

And oh, how much I wish we could speak openly and still get along with each other. Because, more than ever before, we desperately need to be able to do so. More than any other time in my lifetime, I've never seen things get this bad. I've never before seen the possible end of our nation and our freedoms. If we could just ... talk ... then we could work things out. We could diffuse this toxic environment, and we could find solutions ... together.

What can we do about this? I'm not sure. Right now I feel I can only stay out of it all, continue enjoying my musical progress, and hope everything diffuses itself and goes back to normal. Perhaps it's already too late? Or perhaps the madness/wisdom cycle will swing back towards wisdom on its own? All I can do is hope for the best?

If I may suggest a filter for you to consider: we may be able to weed out the HATE collectively. If a political figure teaches you to hate any particular group of people, whether by race, nationality, religion, political beliefs, or any other label we can slap on anyone, then do NOT support that candidate. They contribute GREATLY to the problem.

Some readers may laugh and say: "But Mel, that filter doesn't leave very many politicians." Sadly that might be true. However, politicians who don't spread HATE do exist. Unfortunately they are the ones being forced out of office nearly everywhere, but they are exactly the politicians we need: the ones who promote LOVE, cooperation, synergy (7 Habits), and so on. If we can support those politicians, then I think we'd come out ahead. 

Then we'd again be able to wax politically while keeping our friends and livelihoods.

20th Anniversary of 9/11

Today is the 20th Anniversary of 9/11 -- a disaster we'll never forget. Thousands of people lost their lives. A symbol was destroyed. Practically everyone in this nation felt as if they had lost something. It was one of our worst times. 

But it also brought out the best of us. For a brief period of time, people banded together. 

Many first responders gave immediate assistance. Their goal -- to save as many lives as they could. For some, it wasn't even their shift. It was all hands on deck. Over the next few days, many worked many hours in the hopes of finding more survivors. And yet many of these responders were in the towers as they fell -- giving the ultimate sacrifice for saving lives.

A few days later, President Bush gave a speech and for the only time in my entire life, I saw both sides of the aisle cheering and clapping in unison. There were no more Democrats or Republicans -- only Americans. Bush's approval rating shot up to 90%. We were united, and we all supported what came next -- an action to destroy the power that attacked us. 

And we all did our parts, whether it was comforting those who had lost loved ones, or donating money, or supporting first responders across the nation. We even agreed to give up some of our freedoms through the Patriot Act -- just a few freedoms -- for the sake of security to make sure this never happened again. Though we were vulnerable in the attack, we came out stronger and united with the American Spirit we all possess, and we rebuilt and vowed never to forget. 

In fact, these days, you can't separate the words "never forget" from the 9/11 attack. If you don't believe me, just do a Google search -- it'll come up 90% 9/11. It is forever ingrained into our everyday life.

But sometimes I wonder if these are just meaningless words that we keep repeating ... as if we have indeed forgotten. I look around and I see a nation divided. Both sides hate the other immensely, and I see no remedy. Is it possible to have that same unity again -- unified with the same American Spirit? Do we need another disaster to bring us together?

Sometimes I believe that perhaps even a disaster wouldn't accomplish this. Imagine -- a disaster that shakes our whole nation -- killing thousands of people, bringing everything to a halt -- causing the action of many first responders across the nation to try and save lives, dealing directly with the death and struggles every day, working countless hours and even other people's shifts. 

If such a disaster were to happen, would we truly remember and unite again? Would we stop being Democrats and Republicans, and just be Americans? Would we again band together to help each other get through this disaster? Would we again revere the frontline responders, or would we instead ignore them while they cried into their pillows every night? Would our leaders lead us with consistency and full information or would they choose to take every opportunity to demonstrate how terribly the other side is doing for political gain? Would we again do our parts -- whatever it takes to get through it and come out stronger -- or would we choose to do nothing except mock those who die and their loved ones? Would we rebuild, or would we continue to tear apart?

Have we already truly forgotten? Or is it yet not too late?

Coronavirus -- Should I Protect the Unvaccinated?

I'm back for another special edition Coronavirus Update -- this one geared for the vaccinated people who are considering whether or not to put the masks back on.

I'm vaccinated. My immediate family is vaccinated. Almost everyone in my inner circle is vaccinated (with a couple of exceptions).

I no longer fear this virus. As Fox News (Julie Banderas) reported earlier on Friday: out of 163.9 Million people vaccinated, only 0.003% were hospitalized, and only 0.001% have died.

On top of that, we know that 97% of all recent hospitalizations are from the unvaccinated.

The data is very clear. The vaccines are working. I may still catch the virus and get sick, but I'm most likely not going to be hospitalized, and I'm also not going to die.

About 30% of adults remain unvaccinated, and they have their rights. Several have told me variations of: "It's my choice. Why should you even care if I get sick? It's a 99% survival rate, and I'm willing to take the chances." 

And you know what? I would be perfectly fine with this. It would be like me running some high-adventure high-risk company where people can come in to sign waivers to take on the risks themselves -- and then enjoy themselves. If they sign waivers, would I feel bad if they hurt themselves?

But then Delta comes around -- and this puppy is mean. It infects more people than any variant before it. Experts are saying it is now as contagious as the chicken pox. And this changes everything. Even some vaccinated people are catching it, having mild symptoms, and then passing it on to others.

I know of one congregation where a couple of weeks ago, a sick fully-vaccinated member went to church and infected at least five other people (some of which were also vaccinated -- also with mild symptoms). This prompted the temporary closing of that church. 

Perhaps I should put on a mask just to avoid even the mild symptoms? But would it really be worth it? Can't we just be done with this virus?

If everyone were vaccinated, we really wouldn't have to do anything further -- as everyone who got sick would just have mild symptoms, and then it would all go away for good.

In other words, no one would need protection. No masks, no shutdowns, no nothing.

But we still have 30%+ left that need protection. Before Delta, it appeared we were reaching a herd immunity with numbers dropping like a rock, and the unvaccinated were enjoying some protection, but now that's all out the window.

With Delta, there are the disturbing reports of hospitalized people asking for the vaccine, only to have the doctors tell them it was too late. Or hospitalized people expressing regret in not getting vaccinated. I highly recommend watching this BBC video (which I can't seem to embed). It shows some people expressing regrets, and also shows some compelling graphics depicting how few vaccinated people are catching COVID19 and dying.

This all gives me pause -- and helps me to realize -- many of my unvaccinated friends may be yelling at me now demanding a "waiver" so I don't have to worry, who will then in a few weeks be expressing regrets -- and possibly be angry at those who had been lying to them about COVID19 and these vaccines. Should I make my decisions based on their attitudes today? Or should I base my decisions on how their attitudes will be a month from now? 

Seeing the saddened people in that BBC video makes me want to still protect them until they finally figure it out and get vaccinated themselves. Sure -- I can put the mask back on. I hate it -- but I'll do it -- at least in most situations.

Coronavirus -- The Vaccine Good News

Here is another special-edition coronavirus newsletter on the vaccine. This time it's really good news.

First off, I should apologize for any and all self-righteousness I may have exhibited over this past year. I fear that my judgmental tone may have served to push people away from doing what's needed to end this pandemic. It was mainly my frustration with the Anti-Hype, which is real and still in full force, by the way. There really are people (mainly foreigners and anarchists) at the source who create all this dangerous misinformation -- much of which is scientifically generated with artificial intelligence to deceive us all -- with the goal of dividing and destroying our country.

As I tried to fight this Anti-Hype and bring my readers to the knowledge of its existence, I ended up pushing many of them away. No doubt some of the articles I came across were likewise scientifically generated to get people like me angry so we bite off our friends' heads and help entrench them in their beliefs. Likewise, I've come across many "liberal" leaning articles that had been downplaying the effectiveness of our vaccines and exaggerating the badness of COVID19 in attempts to scare us into submission -- which only had the result of further pushing away my friends.

Anyway -- I'll try again not to be so judgmental. Especially not now when the end is in sight. It is so very close.

What I have today is both very good news for all of us and at the same time very bad news for some of us.

The good news: the vaccines work -- like "crazy" work -- like "the numbers are actually dropping like a rock" work. Especially Pfizer and Moderna. (And the Johnson & Johnson shot is okay -- slightly less effective.) The UK and Israel are now experiencing really flat death rates, and they're just a little ahead of the US in vaccinations. We're almost there.

From recent studies and experience, we have strong evidence that the vaccines approved in the US cut down drastically on hospitalizations (and death), and are also drastically reducing asymptomatic transfer. Else we would be seeing a lot more cases and death in our actual experience.

This statement from the Cleveland Clinic observes that over 99% of hospitalizations in their hospitals from January to mid-April were unvaccinated patients. And this same trend seems to apply to other groups as well. As they state: "It cannot be more clear the message that vaccines work and it's the key action that we need to do to get back to our normal lives ..."

Not only that, but I think the mRNA vaccine technology itself (Pfizer and Moderna) -- if fully proven to be safe in other applications -- could be a watershed moment in the field of medicine, and could be the beginning of many miracle cures for a variety of diseases and syndromes -- all another reason why these recent developments are crazy good news.

It's such great news that Dr. Fauci, the CDC, and President Biden have all recommended that we no longer need masks indoors if we are vaccinated. It's probably the first time during the entire pandemic that I've seen these guys not treat us like children and actually spell it out accurately.

Though, it's not without confusion. And this is where the really bad news comes in -- but wait -- I'm building up to it. The biggest concern: How do we know which people have been vaccinated? Won't the unvaccinated people just take off their masks as well?

This CNN opinion article by scientists does a really good job summarizing all the concerns. It is true that the vaccines aren't 100% effective -- but then again, if we (as the article states) are getting deaths down to the level of influenza (even less than influenza among the vaccinated), then is it worth keeping everything shut down and wearing masks when they may no longer be necessary?

However, the CNN article does hit on one very important concern. If the vaccinated stop wearing masks, then unvaccinated people wearing masks may receive the judgmental wind. "Why haven't you gotten vaccinated yet? Stay away from me." This would provide a gigantic incentive for the unvaccinated to leave off their masks in order to avoid consternation. Which would then inspire concerned people who can't get vaccinated for medical reasons to shutter themselves at home, which can cause other issues.

And what's going to happen next? If the unvaccinated take off their masks, then there's going to be another wave of cases and then death. How big it gets will depend on how fast the remainder of us can get vaccinated to build up sufficient herd immunity. And who's going to die as a result? Mostly the unvaccinated.

This is the really bad news. Biden and the CDC in their announcement have officially declared open season on the unvaccinated. I don't know if this is intentional or not. Maybe Biden thinks more people will get vaccinated if they no longer have to wear masks. Or perhaps Biden thinks: "Screw it all. We have a vaccine so it's everyone for themselves. Let's open this puppy up." Maybe this new development will inspire more people to get vaccinated, regardless of Biden's intentions. If by some miracle we could get a crazy number like 90% vaccinated, then this all comes to an end.

I don't think we need that much, but if we don't get enough to keep it all under wraps, then the spread and death will continue at faster rates, which is really bad news for our unvaccinated friends and especially their unvaccinated vulnerable friends.

I'll end with this quick guide to help those still sitting on the fence:

So, You're Thinking About Getting the Shot?

Now with masks coming off, it's a good time to reconsider if you are prepared for what comes next.

Are these vaccines safe? You should check out this cool article that uses pictures to compare the risk of COVID19 vs. the risk of taking the vaccines. I'll give you a preview: Per capita, the number of people dying from COVID19 are much higher than those dying after the vaccines.

How do I get a shot? This looks like a good resource -- just type in your zip code and it'll show you plenty of places -- clinics, pharmacies, and even some grocery stores. Some places now accept walk-ins. And the best part -- they're all free!

Which shot should I get? At this stage, while demand is relatively low and supply is high, you can choose which shot you want. In the tool I mentioned in the last paragraph, you can even filter by Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson. Though, I've predicted on Facebook that in a couple of months we may have only one choice available, and it may be Johnson & Johnson. While you have a choice, I would choose Pfizer or Moderna, because they use the new mRNA technology that's super effective -- crazy effective. Johnson & Johnson seems to be having more "breakthrough" infections.

Do I need both shots? If you get Pfizer or Moderna, some of you may want to get just the first shot, as the second shot is reported to make people temporarily sick. I, myself, had a 99.3°F fever for about 12 hours. Just one shot gets you to about 80% protection, and the second shot gets you to over 95%. Note that the UK largely used the one-shot method to get more people with some level of vaccination. As that second shot only provides an additional 15%. Currently, the US is sitting at 46% at-least-one-shot vaccinated and 35% fully vaccinated. The UK is at 53% at-least-one-shot vaccinated and 28% fully vaccinated. And the UK is doing much better than us with their really low death rates even though the US has more fully-vaccinated people per capita.

So if you're one of those peeps who can't afford to miss any days of work, then just get the one shot, and you'll still be contributing a great deal to the nationwide vaccination effort.

Can I still get sick if I'm vaccinated? Unfortunately -- the chance remains. You can get COVID19 enough to end up in the hospital, and you can even die. But the observed counts are very low. So low that one may compare this with the dangers of getting into a car and getting hurt in an accident. Most likely, if you contract COVID19, it will be a mild case.

How does these vaccines even work? Don't they change our DNA and weaken our immune system? No -- in fact they do the opposite. Pfizer and Moderna are mRNA vaccines -- a new technology. It introduces instructions (mRNA) that our cells read to temporarily create harmless spiky proteins that look like COVID19. Then our natural immune system builds antibodies that will attack anything having those same spiky protein shells. The mRNA does enter the outside of our cells, where the proteins are created, but then the mRNA dissolves before getting anywhere close to the nucleus where our DNA is stored. Also, there is no mechanism provided to insert the instructions into our DNA.

Here's a quick video on mRNA vaccines:

Johnson & Johnson uses a similar tactic, but it relies on a repurposed virus that inserts the mRNA into our cells -- and again, this repurposed virus doesn't have the mechanism installed to change our DNA.

More information is available at the CDC site.

What if I choose not to get a shot? It's clear that these shots will not be forced on us. It is indeed a free country. But while we have freedom to choose, we don't get to choose the consequences. The virus will attack anyone who is not vaccinated, and those people can continue to spread the virus to friends and family who may be extra vulnerable. You should do your own research as to what the most risky option is. For some people, medical conditions could actually make the vaccine more risky -- such as people very susceptible to anaphylactic shock from vaccines. Weigh your options (entirely free of any political concerns), and decide on your own what you should do. And if you get any flack from your friends because of your decision, you can tell them not to be so judgmental.

But if you do choose not to get a shot, you may want to consider other mitigations factors to help reduce risk such as continuing to wear a mask, staying away from crowded indoor events, and practicing social distancing.

Closing Thoughts

This may be my very last coronavirus newsletter -- at least I would love it to be the last. I'm ready for this to be done. I'm vaccinated, and my family will be fully vaccinated shortly, and I've already started experiencing the newfound freedom this vaccine provides. If the variants are held at bay, then this will turn into a slow trickle and there will be an end to the high death counts. I'm even looking forward to catching the "Quiet Place" sequel at the end of the month -- in the theater. 

I wish you all well, and I hope you find your own way to live life to its fullest while at the same time mitigating the risks of death.

Biden -- Looking Ahead

I usually try to get these presidential previews out much earlier than this, but I've been busy. So in my four-year look ahead, I now have the advantage of hindsight for Biden's first 100 days. What's going to happen in the next four years?

Let me get the easy stuff out of the way, first. I have every reason to believe Biden is still going to be alive in four years. He may be on the sickly side, but his doctors are going to keep him alive. Will he run for a second term? I don't think so.

Undoing Trump

We should be used to this by now. Trump undid a lot of Obama, and Biden has already undone a lot of Trump -- so it earns first place on my list. On the most part I am happy with these actions. If you've been following my articles, there were several Trump policies that I opposed, even though I'm mostly a conservative.

I won't harp too much on this, except to note one Trump policy that still remains in place. We still have the tax cuts, including the 21% corporate tax rate. Biden wants to split the difference between that and the prior 35% to bring us to 28%. I'm personally opposed to this idea -- as everyone agrees that it will lead to job loss -- mainly among the middle class. He also wants to institute a minimum corporate tax, of which I strongly oppose. We should close the loopholes instead of punishing corporations for timing issues leading to temporary lower paid taxes.

Biden promises to leave alone the taxes on the first $400k of personal income, which I'm certain will stand -- the middle class tax rates will not change despite a lot of misinformation going around. But Biden does plan on raising taxes on income past $400k, including capital gains tax -- and I'm perfectly fine with this.

But will this pass through Congress? I think it will.

The Coronavirus

Overall, I think Biden's handling of the pandemic is okay. It's a lot better than Trump's handling. If Biden had done even the littlest thing at all to combat the virus, he would have done better than Trump after April 2020. As of now, I see vastly improved numbers and the situation is still getting better. Biden has successfully provided additional support to the states to help distribute the vaccine.

However, Biden seems a little wishy washy in areas that could have really helped get the numbers down even faster. Instead of only asking everyone to wear masks, he could have instituted an actual mask mandate. He could be doing a lot more to incentivize people to be vaccinated -- such as mandating vaccine passports and requiring them at places of transportation. He could have pushed the Google/Apple contact tracing technology and require a national use of it -- which really could help identify much more quickly the asymptomatic virus transfer. You may have seen my article as to what I would have done if I were president.

But maybe Biden has done enough -- maybe we'll see the virus go away now and normality by July 4th. It all depends on what happens next. The coronavirus numbers began coming down drastically in January when it was clear how Biden was going to lead.

Immigration

Will we ever have a president who gets this right? Trump, in my opinion was too strict in his immigration policy -- much more effectively lowering legal immigration than he did illegal immigration -- including a new policy to start rejecting green card renewals -- punishing those who "came through the gate legally." And building an expensive symbolic ineffective wall -- which evidently can still be scaled and dug underneath.

On the other hand, Biden seems to be too light on immigration. As soon as he got in office, immigration attempts skyrocketed -- especially among children. He says that it's just a winter rush of immigration, but we all know it's because everyone down south thinks Biden is "such a great guy." It also didn't help that Biden announced that we're not going to turn away the children. And it also seems that "catch and release" is back on the table.

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Maybe one day we'll get a president who can most effectively manage our borders. Not too strict. Not too light. More people coming in legally and paying taxes, and much less illegal immigration.

Obamacare

I have no idea what comes next, here. My guess is that Biden will reinstitute the individual mandate. Technically it still exists, but it's just set at $0. My prediction is that very little will happen in the area of healthcare, and prices will continue to increase.

Global Warming

The "scientist" side of me is actually a little excited about Biden's plans to counter global warming. Overall, since 2000, pollution from the US per capita has been decreasing as technologies improve, but we're still one of the highest per capita polluters.

However, I am a little concerned with the price tag on Biden's current infrastructure proposal. Trillions of dollars is a big deal, even if spread out over several years. It still falls far short of the impossibly ambitious Green New Deal, but it still seems to be too ambitious, possibly even including a lot of expensive liberal programs that don't really have much to do with global warming. (I haven't yet studied what's in that plan.)

I'm happy that Biden is doing something, but isn't there some innovative solution somewhere in the middle? I love the idea of building up solar cells to supplement our already-existing power supplies. (I've got some ideas in that area that I may share one day.) That doesn't seem to be too expensive. And within a couple of decades, we're likely to get some cold fusion going, which will be a much more efficient and cleaner energy source that would drastically reduce pollution just by the virtue of it becoming available.

We'll see what happens. I expect that the current proposal will NOT pass, but a watered-down version may eventually pass.

Midterm Elections

I'm going to go ahead and make a bold prediction -- that Republicans will NOT overtake the House nor the Senate. Well -- small chance they may get the Senate, but I believe the attempt to overturn the election supported by so many big named Republicans is going to backfire -- just as it did in the January special election in GA. Plus, I predict that many independents will actually like what Biden will have accomplished and will vote Democrat at the end of next year.

I'm not sure what to think about this development. A lot of my conservative friends fear that the "Socialist Democratic Party" will destroy our country. I wouldn't say we're going that far -- we'll definitely survive and have another chance later for conservatives to get back into power. But I do believe we may end up erring in the area of losing jobs and have another recession in a few years.

But then again -- I think that Republicans lost their seat at the table when they put Trump in the big chair. And they will likely be kept from that seat as long as they continue pushing the Trump agenda (which is only popular among a 30% base -- and not so much among independents anymore).

National Unity

This is where I saw the most hope for Biden. Obama divided us. Trump divided us ten times more than Obama did. I saw a very toxic situation brewing, which I think has already been diffused immensely ever since Biden got sworn into office. I still think Biden may have a chance in bringing Americans closer together.

However, he certainly has a strange way to carry this out. In this area I am somewhat disappointed already. Trump had said in his inaugural speech, "Come to me and I will unite you." (So funny!) Biden did a much better job in his speech asking for unity, but unfortunately, at a later time, he too said his version of "Come to me and I will unite you."

Biden seems to be really good at pushing liberal ideas, but I'm not seeing much conservative ideas being pushed. Also, Biden still doesn't seem to do too well when it comes to answering antagonistic questions. He, like Trump, seems to be very capable of walking off stage when the questions get tough.

In addition, he's not very good at winning over the Trump camp. Just like Obama did to Bush, and what Trump did to Obama, Biden is certainly continuing the blaming of the former president. He even continues to misrepresent what Trump says and utters inaccuracies all the time. For example, he blasts Trump's handling of the vaccine rollout, but then when he took over, the graph of vaccine shots per day did not really change its trend. Biden was simply continuing what Trump had started.

If Biden wants unity, he needs to speak the truth. He needs to acknowledge Trump where Trump did well. If he had simply thanked Trump for Operation Warp Speed and put him on a pedestal while praising the vaccine, then so many more conservatives would be getting the vaccine right now, and so many more conservatives might be thinking, "Biden isn't as bad as we thought he'd be."

I know Biden's heart is in the right place, but his current tactics just aren't working. Maybe he'll figure it out eventually. Those with good hearts tend to ultimately find the right answers.

My prediction on this front: I think we'll ultimately become more unified -- whether it be from the absence of a toxic president, or from Biden finally bringing us together.

Closing Remarks

Biden would not be my personal pick for president, but for the 2020 election, I did vote for him because that's what I thought was best for our nation. And that's even with me disagreeing with a lot of his policies. Ten years ago, I would have never imagined myself voting for him -- especially when I had remarked, "He looks just like his party mascot!" But yet, that's how my vote went.

Even though I may express some disappointment in Biden today and over the next four years, I do not regret my vote, and I am unlikely to regret it (I do not regret any of my presidential votes over my entire voting record). I know what direction we were heading, and I believe we've dodged that future for now. We get to survive another four years. I also know that things will not get as bad as many of my conservatives fear -- because I actually listen to what Biden is saying, and not what others say that he's saying.

Biden may continue to be wishy-washy, and provide us with plenty of funny senior moments. I think he'll fail at some of his goals, but will succeed in other areas. I also anticipate that the next four years will not be as exciting as the last four years (as I already enjoy the fact that I can go days without worrying about what the president is doing). But ... we'll see what happens.

Coronavirus -- You Will Most Likely Get Vaccinated

Welcome to a special edition coronavirus newsletter. I figured now would be the best time to provide a quick vaccine update. Overall, this is really good news, as all signs point to an actual end to this pandemic, and a relatively quick return to a normal life. I thought I would clarify some questions about the vaccine based on my recent research and also provide my own predictions. I will say outright that the health departments and the press have been downplaying these vaccines big time, so much that it's confusing many people who have valid concerns.

I will also now make a bold prediction that the vast majority of those reading this newsletter will ultimately choose to get vaccinated of their own volition, and I think you know this deep down. Maybe you'll choose to do so sooner rather than later, but we'll see.

What I'm going to do in this article is to first present four scenarios that are likely to play out, and I will also speak to several different concerns. And at the very end, I will finish off with my own personal testimony as a Christian for those who may appreciate it.

First off, I should point out that some people probably should NOT get vaccinated. If you have certain health conditions, you should discuss with a doctor. If a doctor tells you "no," then don't get vaccinated. If you are allergic to some inoculations, you might want to consider the Johnson & Johnson shot instead of Pfizer or Moderna. Also, if you've recently recovered from COVID19, you're likely to have protection for a while -- maybe six months. Everyone should keep this in mind and not be too judgmental. We just need "enough" to be vaccinated in order for this to end.

Scenario #1: The Happy Scenario

Once we hit a certain level of herd immunity, new infections will fall, and eventually the virus will disappear -- or it will become a very small trickle that's easy to handle. We could hit this level if we have enough people who get vaccinated plus those recently recovered from COVID19. For example, if 50% get fully vaccinated, and 20% have recent sickness protection, that would get us up to 70%. And if that's enough coverage (we're not sure what the right number is, yet), then we will hit this immunity pretty quickly and -- you wouldn't have to get vaccinated. And more power to us! I would love this outcome. The masks would come off, and everyone would be happy as things return to normal.

However -- you may already guess that I place a small probability on this outcome. I think that if we want to end this for good, we're going to need 90% total coverage as soon as possible. Even with herd immunity with a still-high base of active cases, I think it would still leave enough fuel for the virus to continue infecting the unvaccinated and mutate to new viruses that will resist the vaccines (ending herd immunity for everyone), which would then require booster shots. 

I do think it is highly likely that we will have to get at least one additional booster shot toward the end of this year. However, if we could somehow get up to 90% coverage fast enough, we could avoid this booster.

Scenario #2: The Peer Pressure Scenario

I notice that the vast majority of my friends on social media want this shot and are more than happy to share when they get their shots. These come from friends of all walks of life: liberals, conservatives, religious, atheist, and so on. The ones complaining about the shots are a shrinking minority. Depending on which poll you believe, the number who want the shot is around the 60-80% range.

Many of the remaining group may simply choose to go ahead and get vaccinated because they just don't want to be a holdout. That would be fine with me ... the more who get vaccinated, the better. Out of the four scenarios, I see this one as the most likely to play out.

Scenario #3: The Vaccine Passport Scenario

Biden has already made it clear that he's not going to force these vaccines nor the passports on us. He's going to leave it to the private sector to decide. And I think governors can still institute their own mandates.

I fully support the idea of instituting vaccine passports, whether it be a governor's executive order or a business's choice, as I believe it would help to expedite going back to normal more quickly without worrying so much about infecting the unvaccinated and inviting mutations and so on.

Newer studies are showing good evidence that 12 days after a full vaccination, we receive near-full protection from COVID19 and most of the current variants -- even stronger protection than one gets from recovering from the virus itself. And asymptomatic transfer may even be reduced significantly.

I personally think masks aren't as necessary for the fully vaccinated person, but there does remain around a 10% chance of still getting a mild case of the virus and possibly infecting someone else, so it would probably still be prudent to go ahead and continue wearing masks until base active counts get to be low again -- which won't be long if most of us get vaccinated.

In this vaccine passport scenario, it's likely that many of the resisters may get the vaccine so they can more freely get around, though they may feel that their freedoms are taken away. But then they'll be fine once everything goes back to normal. However, I place a low probability on this whole scenario, as Biden doesn't have enough gumption to push the vaccine passports on a national level, and I think there will be too much resistance. For example, Governor DeSantis has already banned all vaccine passports in Florida, even as that state is starting their next surge.

Scenario #4: The Drag-It-Out Worst Case Scenario

I really hope it doesn't come to this. If enough people resist the vaccines and we don't hit the desired herd immunity, then this thing is going to drag out even longer -- past July 4th -- past Thanksgiving -- past Christmas -- into 2022 and beyond. This is because mutations will continue to pop up, requiring further booster shots from updated vaccines -- maybe every 6 months or so. We'll see much more reinfections occurring.

But here's the catch ... the ones dying will mostly be among those who still refuse to be vaccinated. And there will come the time when they finally figure it out ... "We're dying. Okay -- we'll take the shot." I don't want to see my friends end this way. I also don't want to see this thing linger much longer.

So, let's take a closer look at some of the concerns that keep popping up.

I don't want to lose my freedoms.

I have never seen it this way and probably never will. And as I mentioned above, Biden isn't going to push it. 

We are all free to choose, but we don't get to choose the consequences. 

If we refuse the shot and die from COVID19 complications, we would have exercised our freedoms, but we would also have lost access to the rest of our lives. Further, if we refuse the shot, we could end up infecting another person who ends up dying -- thus curtailing the freedoms of that person.

Most people who get the vaccine get a sore arm, and then ... well ... they get back to their own lives, fully capable of enjoying their freedoms.

The FDA hasn't approved these vaccines.

This is true. It is being allowed only on an emergency basis. In fact, they're still doing tests to determine long-time efficacy and to determine any further long-term effects. This is also the first time mRNA vaccines have been allowed to be administered to the public (Pfizer and Moderna). This is amazing new technology, which could have tremendous applications against other viruses once it's proven to be safe enough. And no ... they do not change our DNA. The mRNA fragments don't even enter our cells -- a fact that may make this the safest type of vaccine ever created.

Being on emergency basis, the US continues to monitor results arising from the three approved vaccines: Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson&Johnson. So far, side effects and deaths are few -- with deaths being as low as compared to "not getting the vaccine." Experience is strongly supporting the fact that these vaccines are safe. (Though -- as I said before -- some people with underlying conditions may be more susceptible to adverse side effects -- if you suspect this, do your research -- talk to your doctor.)

These shots have aborted fetus tissue.

This is not quite true. Though, all three approved vaccines (and many of the other vaccinations) make use of cell cultures grown from three specific aborted fetuses from the 60s-80s. These cells are used either in the testing or in the production process, but as far as I can tell, these cells aren't in the final products. These same culture cells have also already been used around the world for decades for other medical purposes ... and yes ... they really do grow from the same three fetuses. No new abortions are needed to create these vaccines. If you want more details, you can read more in my earlier blog entry.

Or you can consider that the Pope and the leader of my church, Pres. Nelson, both of whom are fully aware of the existence of these cell cultures, have approved these vaccines, have received these vaccines, and have urged us all to get vaccinated. (Click the following pictures for more information.)

But I really like Trump, so I'm not getting the shot.

I doubt that any of you are saying this exactly, but I do notice that most people resisting the vaccine are on the conservative side, and most are avid Trump supporters. And sometimes it seems to me that they choose to fight the vaccine because it's one way to show their love and support for Trump. Or it may simply be that they pick up this sentiment visiting Parler or other conservative-leaning platforms.

If this really is the one thing holding you back, then please listen to Trump. These vaccines that we have now represent one thing Trump has done right in this pandemic. It is Trump's legacy, which is saving lives today.

Trump received at least the first shot of the vaccine in January. At CPAC, he urged everybody to get the shot.

And Trump emphasized this again in a recent phone interview on Fox News.

Trump wants you to be vaccinated -- he wants his legacy to be a success. Please don't let him down.

My final testimony

And lastly, I'd like to present my own personal religious testimony, Christian to other religionists. I usually like to keep these posts agnostic so all readers can benefit, but I feel that what I wish to say sincerely here will reach many of you.

You may remember during the beginning parts of the pandemic, right after lockdowns were urged in nearly every state -- there was much prayer and fasting for the epidemic to end. Pres. Nelson, of my own church, invited people from around the world to join in prayer and fasting on 4/10/2020 (Good Friday) -- exactly one year ago today. He asked us to pray for an end of the pandemic and that our lives would be normalized.

And many people of many faiths joined in the prayer on Good Friday -- either by invitation or independently. In my city of Winston-Salem, my wife and I watched a broadcast from our city government -- an hour of prayer and reflection from several religious leaders, including Christian, Muslim, Buddhist, Wiccan, and other religions.

I really believed something big would come out of this unification in prayer -- some miracle cure or other event that would save lives. But we would yet have another 500,000+ deaths in our nation alone. Was it in vain?

I've have only recently come to discover that something big did happen in April 2020 -- shortly after all the prayer and fasting. The first version of the first two vaccines to be approved in the US, Moderna and Pfizer, was finished and clinical trials began -- yes -- in April. Johnson&Johnson followed afterwards with trials beginning in July. And these vaccines would be among the most effective vaccines ever made -- as good as if not better than our current shots for measles and chicken pox. These vaccines put our flu vaccines to shame. It did take a while for adequate testing before being released to the public, but we have them now.

I believe these vaccines were a direct answer to all of our united fasting and prayer from different religions. God listened and provided us the key to stopping more death, normalizing our lives, and being healthy again. He had inspired the doctors and scientists to create very effective vaccines. He knows the count of our days and has let us know that He intends for us to live longer -- that it is not yet our time to die.

So, I happily choose to accept God's gift, and take this vaccine so that it may extend my life, and save the lives of others, and help bring us back to normality. I am not going to throw away the shot that He has provided.

Trump -- Looking Back

Four years ago, I made a series of predictions about Trump's first term. A little over halfway into his term, I posted an update. Today I'll finish out the backtesting -- how well did I do in my predictions? To save myself time, if there's no change between my mid-term report and today, I'll only give you the new developments.

"The next four years will be interesting." Ding ding ding ding -- that one was too easy.

Social issues

I was mostly off on this: "I don't think Trump will be as bad as many of my left-leaning friends fear." Technically this turned out to be true only in that it could have been much worse, but it was still pretty bad. Most of my right-leaning friends don't see this, but they also don't want to see it. I, on the other hand can't unsee what I've seen.

LGBT concerns: Pretty much nailed it.

Obamacare: As I mentioned before, Trump and friends failed to come up with a replacement, and healthcare costs are still high. Will it be a disaster with the mandate removed? It's still too soon to tell.

Immigration: It got even worse in the last two years. Many people don't seem to understand that Trump made it much harder to legally enter the United States. Quotas for refugees were drastically reduced. Those with green cards (also known as those who went through the gate legally) were hit with new rules to make it harder to remain in the country (while one of Trump's people ridiculed the Statue of Liberty). H1-B visas have gotten even more scarce. Refugees were treated contrary to the Geneva Refugee Convention, including deporting them back into danger and sometimes death, and permanently separating over a thousand children from their parents -- helping us to really stand out in the world. He did have portions of his Wall built, but not much. It still remains ugly, symbolic, ineffective, and expensive. Mexicans have already demonstrated that they can climb it and still dig under it.

And Mexico never did pay for the wall -- so I got that one right.

Muslims: Nothing new here -- I pretty much got that one right.

Black people: Tensions certainly increased in the last two years, including some highway protests -- so I'll give myself a thumbs-up on that. I still don't see Trump as racist toward black people, just someone who doesn't know how to handle these tensions correctly. He could have easily helped to diffuse many of the Black Lives Matter protests in 2020, but he ended up exacerbating the tensions -- I think mostly due to incompetence and thinking a ill-executed "Law and Order" campaign would actually work.

Trump as Hitler

I'll give myself a thumbs-up for saying Trump would not turn into Hitler. I still don't see him as evil. Though ... "Trump will usher in a disaster from his ignorance." A big thumbs-up to me. Ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding! Can someone say coronavirus? On this topic alone, I could go on and on and on, which I do in this post.

And though "Hitler" never happened, I had no idea that "Putin" would show up big time in Trump during the 2020 elections and how he tried to upend our Constitution in an attempt to maintain power. I chronicle much of what transpired here, but this doesn't include the Capitol riots. Depending on what occurs over the next couple of months, I may dive deeper into this big hoax, but I really don't want to have to do it.

Fake news

When I said Trump would have "zero effect" in silencing his opponents, I was right in that I don't believe any news outlets got in trouble or suffered. On the contrary, they may have flourished. But I was wrong in that Trump did succeed in convincing millions of Americans that reputable news sources really aren't "reputable."

And something I didn't see at all: fringe outlets such as OAN and Newsmax actually got a big boost after Fox News called Arizona for Biden in early November (they were only following the AP). Such a silly thing to get angry about. Move over Fox News, here comes something scarier!

And at the same time Twitter and Facebook made the stupidest mistake of silencing many of my conservative friends by flagging posts and deleting them. This pushed many conservatives to more conservative social media sites such as Parler, thus creating a dangerous confirmation bias environment.

Now I think we're still in a very precarious situation, and much, much, much closer to that strange civil war I keep warning about. Though, Biden becoming president seems to have already helped to diffuse this greatly.

"Perhaps we just need to take away his Twitter account." LOL! I had no idea how prophetic this sentence would turn out to be!

Money

I hit the money on the Federal Reserve (nothing happened -- really). And corporations really are flourishing. Though our deficit took a big hit -- even before coronavirus hit.

Foreign Relations

I was thankfully wrong about: "we will see one, if not two attacks." We have yet to see our next sizable foreign terrorist attack on our soil since 9/11. Though, domestic violence has increased greatly.

I was also wrong about Trump -- big time -- when it came to his big win helping to broker a peace deal in the Middle East -- didn't see that one coming.

Russia again did try to help Trump maintain power, but looks like it failed. Trump losing actually increases the chances of Putin's rival to gain more popularity and perhaps get into power. Russia continues to influence our social media ... big time, and most Americans still continue to fall into their scientifically-generated traps. (More about that later.)

Trump's Gift to Unite

It never happened. Trump never did rise to this call. He proved time and time again that his ability to maintain power was much more important than anything else. He has divided us further. He has made people more angry -- in particular, his base. He has turned himself into an idol -- bigger than his Party even, and sometimes even bigger than God. He has critically weakened the Republican Party, which is now likely to fall and possibly give way to another party.

It has been a very interesting four years. In some respects we may be better off, but in many others I think we are frighteningly worse off. I think my predictions turned out to be reasonable, though I missed a couple of big items. 

Up next -- I will do my own forecast of Biden's upcoming four years. I think that task will be more difficult. Heh.

Can the Republican Party Survive?

As a fiscal conservative, I'm watching with great interest the apparent downfall of the Republican Party, which I once belonged to. In the 2020 election, the Party did make gains in the House but failed to take the majority, and they also lost the Senate and the presidency, giving near-full control to the Democratic Party.

In the wake of the Capitol storming, many people are now leaving the Republican Party. This NPR article gives some scary numbers. More than 4,600 Republicans removed their names from the Party in Colorado. 6,000 in North Carolina, 10,000 in Pennsylvania, and 5,000 in Arizona. And in red Utah, as many as 7,600. As one defector says,"it's just become the party of mean people." Another one says, "I would probably never vote for another Republican again." Yet another person defected because the Republican Party "turned their backs completely on Trump."

According to this Reuters article, over 60 former W. Bush officials have left the Party -- one saying, "The Republican Party as I knew it no longer exists. I'd call it the cult of Trump."

I left, myself, in January 2016, saying, "If this is what the Republican Party is becoming, I want no part of it." I changed my status to Unaffiliated. At the time I was very sad not to have a conservative party to call my own (a topic for later). 

So, what's going on? Is the Republican Party falling apart? Will it continue to bleed members? Can the Party save itself? Perhaps, but by my reckoning, they must act now. One thing's for certain -- this exodus really did happen because of one man -- Donald Trump. Whether they like him or not, people are leaving either because they didn't want the Republican Party to incorporate Trump and his controversial policies, or because they feel the Party abandoned Trump. So ... yeah ... Trump, Trump, Trump.

In my specific case, if it had been just about any other candidate in 2016: Rubio, Carson, or even Cruz, I would have voted Republican -- 99% chance. I definitely did not want Hilary, and instead voted third party.

In 2020 I would have again most likely voted for any other candidate other than Trump or anyone who supported his controversial policies. Instead I chose to vote Biden, hoping the Republican Party would reboot and pick someone else for 2024.

I realize that most of my intended audience still likes Trump, and he did indeed accomplish some amazing things that only he could get away with: brokering a deal in the Middle East, diffusing the situation in North Korea. I get it.

But we've got to face it. Trump will never be president again. He's not going to get anywhere enough votes after the storming of the Capitol. You can see here that his average approval rating dropped like a rock just a couple of days after the event. Sure, he'd get his 30% base, but no independent, and definitely no Democrat is going to vote for man they believe tried to overturn the election along with the Constitution with very flimsy evidence of election fraud.

This also goes for any prominent Republican who supported Trump and his "Big Lie." That's what the majority of people are calling the whole election turnover attempt. Cruz and Hawley have absolutely no chance, and heaven forbid if Greene ever runs. While you may like these guys and would actually want them in the White House, I don't think they're electable. I sure wouldn't vote for any of them now.

Also, imagine this scenario: Trump, or someone else, breaks off and forms their own "Patriot" Party. What do you think would happen? That's right. The conservative vote would split. I'd probably vote Republican, a lot of you would vote for Trump, and the Democrats would win. 2024. 2028. And even 2032 ... we're looking at possibly two decades of Democrats enjoying free rein in our government before conservatives get their act together, and by then, good luck to our economy.

So How Can the Party Survive?

We first need to realize the true cause of the Republican Party's wound. It's not really Trump -- he's just the face of the real issue. When other people look at the Party, all they see is Inconsistency.

In late 2015 as Trump was pushing his presidential bid, most of the prominent Republican candidates were unified in their condemnation of Trump. They called him racist, xenophobic, radical, uncouth, and unelectable. They considered him to be a joke.

This was until December 2015 when Trump described his Muslim ban. At first everyone condemned this idea -- even Cruz. But then something happened. The candidates saw Trump's base increasing, and I think they did what they thought was best for their own careers. One candidate said, "Wait -- let's listen to Trump. He might be on to something with this ban." And then everything changed.

Trump didn't change -- the Republican Party changed and incorporated Trump and his controversial policies. The Party had first condemned Trump, and then they lost their spines. At least that's what the majority of the world is saying.

The number of conservatives who stayed consistent were few. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio continued to stand up to Trump throughout the election. Senator Romney stood up to Trump several times over the past four years, even voting to remove him from office. Senator Flake stood up to slow down the Kavanaugh hearings, and now retired, continues to criticize Trump.

These consistent few are held to be pariahs among most of the members of the Republican Party, but for a big chunk of frustrated conservatives (like me) and the rest of the world, these people are being held as heroes and exemplary models of integrity. These people actually have a spine!

And this is exactly where I see the Party surviving. Imagine if, for 2024, the Republicans put forth someone like Romney (he may be too old, himself) -- someone who people on the left might actually vote for. (Many Democrats have indeed said that they like Romney.)

Just think about it. Put on your game theory hats. If, as a Party, you had to choose between a nameless candidate who you knew would only get 30% of the vote, and another nameless one who could possibly get 60%, which one would you choose?

So ... if the Party is to survive, it needs to let go of Trump. It was a failed experiment that resulted in all power being taken away after four years (which is exactly what I had predicted in January 2016 would happen). Condemning Trump's election "Big Lie" and the resulting riot on the Capitol is the bare minimum for survival. Perhaps even someone like Cruz could find a way to redeem himself.

And then ... put forth a person in 2024 with so much integrity and leadership skills for whom it would be difficult NOT to vote.

It's up to you guys. You could stick with the man you love -- it's very easy to love Trump. But is it worth loving him more than the possibility of getting a conservative back in power? I believe there is somebody better. Does it really have to be Trump, when someone better could have a bigger chance of winning back the presidency?

Just think about it.

Coronavirus -- If I Were President

I know ... I said I was done with my coronavirus newsletters, but don't worry. This is just a random coronavirus post, which I warned would come as needed.

It's no secret that I find Trump's record on coronavirus to be abysmal. And nearly every time I bring up my thoughts, someone invariably asks, "Well, what would you do differently that Trump hasn't already done?" I usually give a short answer like, "Well, just about ANYTHING." No one seems happy with that, so here we go ... now, I'm President of the United States, and it's up to me to get on top of this COVID19 pandemic. What would I do?

#1) Clear and consistent messaging from the top.

People deserve to know the facts. They don't need sugar coating and to be told lies like "we're doing just fine" and "the end is just around the corner." I would personally give frequent short updates, provide words of encouragement, and echo sound advice for fighting the pandemic. If necessary I would warn about misinformation and explain why errant allegations are wrong. I would present the message of "Let's work together to bring this pandemic to an end."

In my "private" life and tweets, I would remain consistent with the messages. None of this "masks are recommended" one day and "doesn't Mr. Johnny John look like an idiot in his mask?" the next day.

#2) Let my team of scientists and experts navigate the pandemic.

There is no place for politics in any kind of emergency. I would allow the CDC to perform to its full potential -- none of this altering their warnings to fit my agenda. I would let my coronavirus task force shine and have them appear frequently to help us get through the pandemic. I would listen to the council from these experts and provide them with what they needed in order to help bring us to the quickest end of the pandemic.

#3) Testing, testing, testing.

In order to be effective, testing needs to be done quickly with fast results so that we can have the much-needed information to fight this disease at the source. Today, a sick person must wait a couple of days just for an appointment to be tested, and then wait a few days for the results to come back. By then, he could have infected several other people.

A person should be able to wake up one morning, decide to get tested, and get results by the end of the day. And all completely free of charge. I would help provide whatever was necessary to bring this to pass.

#4) Masks everywhere.

This one is specific to COVID19 and other respiratory viruses. I would encourage mask wearing anywhere in public in inside or crowded situations. (In other words, masks not required outside when people can remain far, far apart. And no masks for younger children.)

I wouldn't push mandates, but would urge, "It's the right thing to do." Though, I would support a business's right to refuse service for patrons not wearing masks.

Masks would no longer be encouraged (locally) when certain numbers drop below specified thresholds.

#5) Effective contact tracing (behind the scenes) and quarantining.

Our current team of contact tracers is so slow, the next generation of spread has already occurred by the time they finish their sleuthing. I would ensure that teams of contact tracers across the nation are adequately staffed and trained to speed up the process, so that they can actually stop the next vectors. 

I would also urge the public to cooperate with contact tracing efforts, reminding them that it's one of the easiest ways we can work together to fight the virus.

I would also provide the message that quarantines should be honored, whether it be for five days or two weeks, and let people know that it's better, faster, and more effective to quarantine individuals than to resort to an economy-destroying lockdown of everyone.

#6) Nationwide secure contact tracing mobile app.

To aid our team of contact tracers, I would have a nationwide mobile app developed using a secure and private shell, much like the current Apple/Google shell being used in several countries throughout the world. And though it wouldn't be compulsory, I would encourage everyone to use it. (You can see my thoughts about privacy concerns and other considerations here. The Apple/Google shell actually protects your privacy more than just about any other app on your phone.)

This app would be able to identify some exposed individuals faster than human contact tracing. The indications would then help to quarantine individuals, and businesses would be allowed to require certain statuses for patronage.

Up to here, I think Biden will definitely up the game with steps #1-#4, and I suspect #5 may also be part of his behind-the-scenes plans, but I haven't heard anything about #6, which is kind of disappointing (to me, a process improvement/automation guru). Either way, Trump has woefully failed in all 6 steps.

#7) Financial support for people in quarantine.

Those forced or requested to go into quarantine should receive immediate financial support if they are unable to work from home. For every day off of work, they should receive the same payment they would have received. For exempt workers, credits would be paid to the companies so sick days can be preserved. (This may be subject to caps.)

No employer would be allowed to fire anyone for being placed in quarantine.

#8) Work to keep everything open.

Doing all of the above are all bare minimum requirements for getting on top of a disease like COVID19. It is what I frequently like to call "Stage 1 understanding." And it's been one of my biggest frustrations with my country's handling of this situation. We've been spending an inordinate amount of energy trying to get all Americans on the same page, but it's only the First Page. Failing to achieve this minimum has been a disaster, helping us to achieve one of the top ten spots for deaths per capita in the world.

The countries that have been successful have already incorporated steps #1-#7 in some shape or form, and in each case it helps to bring everyone to the Second Page or "Stage 2 understanding." With everyone paying attention, the people can then be educated on how to keep everything open while still navigating the plague, until it's entirely eradicated. I'm talking dining inside, schools open, less need of social distancing, masks not needed in some circumstances -- because people would be employing other mitigation factors such as increasing air flow in buildings to dissipate aerosols (some places in the US are already doing this, BTW).

If we had we instituted steps #1-#7 immediately starting in late January 2020 or maybe even early February, we could have AVOIDED all the lockdowns in March, and we would be enjoying positive GPD growth, and then we would have been a huge example to the rest of the world, which would have helped to inspire others to take similar measures and possibly even help to bring a worldwide end to the pandemic by the close of 2020.

We are only in our current situation because we let it get bad in the early stages, and it hasn't gotten better since.

#9) Continued Monitoring.

At the end of the pandemic, the job would not be done. Sure, masks would come off, the automated contact tracing app would be disabled, and so on, but teams would still be on the lookout for the next pandemic behind the scenes. And when the next one comes (and it will), we would be ready. It would be like invoking some Order 66 and the American citizens would immediately know to institute steps #1-#7 in order to achieve #8, kill off the plague, and save lives. Depending on the nature of the outbreak, any modified steps would be quickly communicated.

Final Thoughts

I realize that a lot of this relies on 20/20 hindsight (yeah -- boo!), which is very easy for me to do right now. When COVID19 first started out, we didn't really understand how bad it could get. Would mitigation measures harm or do good? Would we be reacting over "nothing"? Everyone throughout the world was slow to take this seriously: China, the WHO, the CDC. Even though it was novel and already causing death, people were just afraid of overreacting.

In only a couple of months, China had a breakout worse than all other SARS outbreaks that proceeded it until they admitted it existed and stopped trying to cover it up. And then they quickly clamped down on it with much success, but not before it was already unleashed to the rest of the world.

Other Asian countries such as Korea and Japan acted quickly -- masks came up, and just like an Order 66, the public seemed to already know what to do to stem the spread. This is because these countries had real experience from prior outbreaks. They knew what they did wrong previously and they made sure not to do it again. They WORKED TOGETHER.

In April 2020, I was willing to give Trump a Mulligan, because we haven't really had that experience with a deadly virus. (Except for Ebola, which was immediately eradicated in the US because of some awesome very fast action by our government behind the scenes -- we knew that bug was dangerous and took care of it from Day 1.) I could see that Trump was trying. Perhaps I would have likewise been caught off guard. I've learned most of my knowledge on outbreaks after March 1, when it was already too late. But then again, I probably would have been more open than Trump to listen to epidemiologists who were already sounding warning bells as early as January.

I did try to get people to support Trump in April, because he was kind-of going in the right direction with his daily briefings, though he was still struggling. I feared that if he were to ever give up, we'd be doomed, so I tried to get people to reinforce Trump's good actions and make him want to keep on going. But when he was ridiculed about the detergent, he gave up entirely, and after that (since May), he hasn't really done anything. 

Well ... except for some of behind-the-scene things he did such as supplying certain emergency equipment, perhaps helping to get some financial aid passed, and also providing financial incentives to help produce a vaccine ... Trump does get praise for these actions. However, I see these as the super minimum things any president would have instituted, and so, I didn't include any of that in my steps above. Also, I did say I'm focusing on things Trump hasn't done that I would do. As it stands, we lost far more lives through Trump's inaction than we saved lives through what he did right.

However, I can say this going forward. We now have experience ... recent experience with a deadly pandemic, and hopefully we will be able to see our successes and our mistakes, and next time hopefully we'll do what we know works. If I were president, I would make sure it would happen as detailed above.

And now that we have come to the end of this blog post, I'm no longer president. It was fun while it lasted. Did I tell you they have really good breakfasts?

Coronavirus Newsletter -- Closing Thoughts

General Update / Farewell

Yeah ... you read that right. I'm done. I've been writing these newsletters for months now -- first on my Facebook page, and then over here on this blog. It's been fun, but ... let's face it ... it's pretty much too late to do anything anymore. Just hunker down and wait for what's coming over the next couple of grim months. Plus, I need a break, and starting the first week in January, I'm going to launch a whole new and exciting initiative.

I'll continue doing my weekly model updates on my Facebook page (which last run showed us hitting 400k total deaths by around January 20-ish). And I'll continue updating my deaths per million graphs once a month going forward (on Facebook). And every now and then when I feel like it, I'll come back and give a few more "Coronavirus Updates."

So, one more general update, and then some closing thoughts.

General Update

It's bad out there ... just bad. Practically all states are red on the hotspot map, except for Maine, Vermont, and Hawaii. 

Hospitals continue to fill up. You can check statuses on that here.

Cases per Capita -- last 7 days:

• Worst States: Rhode Island, Indiana, Alaska (wha?), Idaho, Kansas
• Best States: Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, Oregon, Washington
• North Carolina: Cases have skyrocket this last week. Forsyth County is increasing, but not in the top 20 counties.

Deaths per Capita -- last 7 days:

• Worst States: South Dakota, North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Rhode Island
• Best States: Hawaii, Washington, Maine, Virginia, Vermont

The Pfizer vaccine is about to start rolling out, as it is now approved by the FDA for emergency use. Though, we're not entirely sure if it was under duress with President Trump's threats to fire the head of the FDA.

Most of my readers will not be eligible for the first round, and we'll run out of doses. But don't worry -- other vaccines are likely to be approved shortly.

Emergency use means that the government will continue to monitor the vaccine and halt it if it turns out to have too many adverse effects or turns us into zombies. Two possibly identified side effects may be intense allergic reactions for those who use epipens (but no reports of anaphylactic shock), and possibly Bell's Palsy (it may have been a coincidence, but it was statistically significant). If you want to learn more about these, check out this Reuters fact check.

Hopefully this and other vaccines will help get R(t) < 1.0 and kill off the virus.

Farewell

Okay -- time for final words.

The good news is that every day, more and more people get on board. A majority of the people are sincerely working hard to fight the virus. They wear their masks, practice social distancing, and do whatever else they understand to help out and do their part. We are now estimated to be at around 73% mask coverage -- higher from 70% a couple of weeks ago.

The bad news is that the other 20%-30% are still fighting this. They fear that their rights are being taken away. Or they believe that since they're under 55 years old, they have no need to be careful, and let the vulnerable people fend for themselves (it's their fault if they catch the virus).

Unfortunately, this minority is responsible for the vast majority (85%+) of the spread of the virus in our nation -- whether it be through spreading misinformation or the virus itself through sick or asymptomatic spread.

Sadly 27% of us not wearing masks still provides the virus plenty of fuel for spreading and maximizing death.

If you haven't already, I highly recommend reading the following three newsletters, which I consider to be by far the most important posts I've written concerning the fight against the virus.

What Can You Do To Stop the Spread? -- Learn the simple steps that *you* can do to help join the fight against the virus and save lives. You can also see a list of actions to avoid.

The Simplicity -- What is the main goal of fighting the virus? R(t) < 1.000. But what does that mean? Click here to learn more about what we've learned from several outbreaks in the past.

The Loudness -- Learn about the nefarious forces that are intentionally trying to use the pandemic to weaken our country. Once you learn to recognize the signs, you will instantly realize how *you* can help to fight the virus effectively. 

By far, President Trump, Dr. Scott Atlas (a radiologist?), and a couple of rogue epidemiologists, are the most responsible for the spread of the virus in our nation. They have done so through their teachings, rhetoric, and actions. If you read those three articles and strive to understand them, then you, too, should be able to see this as well. Use these people as an example of what NOT to do.

I think it really will get better when Biden takes office in January. Then we will have much more consistent messaging coming from the top, and hopefully there will be a lot less confusion and nonsense coming from the minority.

We shall see. It's not too late to join the fight against the virus. Join the majority who are already doing it. Working together, we can stop this virus. 

Well ... you all can stop this virus. I've already done more than my fair share to fight the most disruptive virus in my lifetime, and my conscious is fully clear. Eventually I'll be back after the dose of reality we're all going to get in the next few weeks. But for now, I'm going to enjoy Christmas. I'm going to relax. And hopefully this annoying cough that I've just now developed is going to go away.

I wish you all well, and I'll see y'all on the other side.