- The lunch will occur in late 2028 or early 2029.
- I'm holding just one lunch and it will be in the Alpharetta, GA area. If you can make it down there -- fine.
- This lunch is open to all my friends, but a warning to liberals: the lunch will consist of several people telling me "I told you so."
- To be invited, I have to actually know who you are. Significant others are included, but children not included.
- Whether or not the lunch happens depends on a point system.
- I've ordered the predictions by suckitude -- the worst ones on top.
- We start with a score of 100 (because Trump hasn't done anything yet).
- The Points column represents the initial points awarded at the beginning, and will never change.
- The Score column represents the current score, and may change through time.
- If an event occurs, I will drop its score to zero. If there is some question/interpretation/subjectivity involved, I may take away only partial points.
- If the total score drops below 90, I will not be providing lunch.
- Each item is mutually exclusive. That is, say inflation reaches 30%. Then both the 10% and 25% events would be triggered, and a total of 10 points would be lost.
- I will allow my friends a deliberation period till Dec. 1, 2024, in which they can suggest alterations to these items. Though, I believe I've already balanced the possible outcomes to account for "this has been a really bad term, so no lunch" and "a few bad things happened, but it hasn't been so bad, so here's lunch." If any of you see a combination of small things on this list that adds up to more than 10 pts, and you think it wouldn't be sufficiently sucky, let me know and I'll consider it -- and perhaps rebalance.
|
Category |
Event |
Points |
Score |
Notes |
|
Retribution |
Uses presidential power or agencies to go after current or political opponents |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Imprisons at least one prominent political opponent critical of Trump |
5 |
5 |
|
|
|
Executes at least one political opponent |
9 |
9 |
These kind of actions would be a serious indicator of the erosion of our Constitution |
|
|
I am personally punished for speaking against Trump -- whether thrown into prison or this Tracker is censored |
10 |
10 |
If something happens to me -- you're just not getting lunch |
|
|
Military / Posse Comitatus |
Federalizes the National Guard and uses them against US civilians (that is, not going through governors) |
4 |
4 |
|
|
Uses active troops against US civilians |
7 |
7 |
This is allowed by law, but general goes against key principles behind the Constitution |
|
|
Inflation |
Inflation higher than 10% |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Inflation higher than 25% |
7 |
7 |
Inflation is rated higher, as it was a major reason why Trump was elected |
|
|
Immigration |
100,000 people die while being deported in any 12-month period |
4 |
4 |
|
|
100,000 LEGAL non-citizens are deported in any 12-month period |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
10,000 US citizens are deported |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
Media |
Punishes at least one media outlet through executive branch (suing doesn't count) |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Law passes to prohibit speech that is critical of President |
5 |
5 |
Would be against the First Amendment |
|
|
Foreign Concerns |
Helps give land "peacefully" from the Ukraine to Russia |
3 |
3 |
|
|
At least two other cases of allowing autocrats to take over democracies |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
Worldwide US share of reserve currency drops below 50% |
2 |
2 |
An indication of weakness |
|
|
Another currency tops the dollar as most used reserve currency |
2 |
2 |
An indication of weakness |
|
|
China and or Russia dominates over the US in power and influence |
4 |
4 |
An indication of weakness |
|
|
Social Issues |
LGBTQ protections are lessened |
2 |
2 |
|
|
Gay marriage is no longer federally recognized |
5 |
5 |
Do we really need more freedoms taken away? |
|
|
Federal Agencies |
Dismantles or lessens the independence of five or more federal agencies |
1 |
1 |
I will rate some items like this low to cover cases where Trump does this, but we end up being okay |
|
Destroys the independence of the Federal Reserve |
3 |
3 |
Will likely be the impetus of higher inflation, which could compound points here |
|
|
Environment |
Pulls us out of climate change agreements |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Pollution increased due to deregulation |
2 |
2 |
Some items like this are on the hard side to prove -- so I've rated them low |
|
|
Another pandemic is mishandled -- equal to or greater than Covid19 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
Third Term |
Tries to repeal 22nd Amendment |
1 |
1 |
|
|
22nd Amendment successfully repealed |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
Riches |
Collects more than $1B from his followers while in office |
1 |
1 |
Don't much care about this one -- it's not my money he's taking |
|
Lawsuits |
Pardons self or ends all lawsuits against him |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Totals |
|
100 |
100 |
I owe lunch |
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