I usually try to get these presidential previews out much earlier than this, but I've been busy. So in my four-year look ahead, I now have the advantage of hindsight for Biden's first 100 days. What's going to happen in the next four years?
Let me get the easy stuff out of the way, first. I have every reason to believe Biden is still going to be alive in four years. He may be on the sickly side, but his doctors are going to keep him alive. Will he run for a second term? I don't think so.
Undoing Trump
We should be used to this by now. Trump undid a lot of Obama, and Biden has already undone a lot of Trump -- so it earns first place on my list. On the most part I am happy with these actions. If you've been following my articles, there were several Trump policies that I opposed, even though I'm mostly a conservative.
I won't harp too much on this, except to note one Trump policy that still remains in place. We still have the tax cuts, including the 21% corporate tax rate. Biden wants to split the difference between that and the prior 35% to bring us to 28%. I'm personally opposed to this idea -- as everyone agrees that it will lead to job loss -- mainly among the middle class. He also wants to institute a minimum corporate tax, of which I strongly oppose. We should close the loopholes instead of punishing corporations for timing issues leading to temporary lower paid taxes.
Biden promises to leave alone the taxes on the first $400k of personal income, which I'm certain will stand -- the middle class tax rates will not change despite a lot of misinformation going around. But Biden does plan on raising taxes on income past $400k, including capital gains tax -- and I'm perfectly fine with this.
But will this pass through Congress? I think it will.
The Coronavirus
Overall, I think Biden's handling of the pandemic is okay. It's a lot better than Trump's handling. If Biden had done even the littlest thing at all to combat the virus, he would have done better than Trump after April 2020. As of now, I see vastly improved numbers and the situation is still getting better. Biden has successfully provided additional support to the states to help distribute the vaccine.
However, Biden seems a little wishy washy in areas that could have really helped get the numbers down even faster. Instead of only asking everyone to wear masks, he could have instituted an actual mask mandate. He could be doing a lot more to incentivize people to be vaccinated -- such as mandating vaccine passports and requiring them at places of transportation. He could have pushed the Google/Apple contact tracing technology and require a national use of it -- which really could help identify much more quickly the asymptomatic virus transfer. You may have seen my article as to what I would have done if I were president.
But maybe Biden has done enough -- maybe we'll see the virus go away now and normality by July 4th. It all depends on what happens next. The coronavirus numbers began coming down drastically in January when it was clear how Biden was going to lead.
Immigration
Will we ever have a president who gets this right? Trump, in my opinion was too strict in his immigration policy -- much more effectively lowering legal immigration than he did illegal immigration -- including a new policy to start rejecting green card renewals -- punishing those who "came through the gate legally." And building an expensive symbolic ineffective wall -- which evidently can still be scaled and dug underneath.
On the other hand, Biden seems to be too light on immigration. As soon as he got in office, immigration attempts skyrocketed -- especially among children. He says that it's just a winter rush of immigration, but we all know it's because everyone down south thinks Biden is "such a great guy." It also didn't help that Biden announced that we're not going to turn away the children. And it also seems that "catch and release" is back on the table.
It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Maybe one day we'll get a president who can most effectively manage our borders. Not too strict. Not too light. More people coming in legally and paying taxes, and much less illegal immigration.
Obamacare
I have no idea what comes next, here. My guess is that Biden will reinstitute the individual mandate. Technically it still exists, but it's just set at $0. My prediction is that very little will happen in the area of healthcare, and prices will continue to increase.
Global Warming
The "scientist" side of me is actually a little excited about Biden's plans to counter global warming. Overall, since 2000, pollution from the US per capita has been decreasing as technologies improve, but we're still one of the highest per capita polluters.
However, I am a little concerned with the price tag on Biden's current infrastructure proposal. Trillions of dollars is a big deal, even if spread out over several years. It still falls far short of the impossibly ambitious Green New Deal, but it still seems to be too ambitious, possibly even including a lot of expensive liberal programs that don't really have much to do with global warming. (I haven't yet studied what's in that plan.)
I'm happy that Biden is doing something, but isn't there some innovative solution somewhere in the middle? I love the idea of building up solar cells to supplement our already-existing power supplies. (I've got some ideas in that area that I may share one day.) That doesn't seem to be too expensive. And within a couple of decades, we're likely to get some cold fusion going, which will be a much more efficient and cleaner energy source that would drastically reduce pollution just by the virtue of it becoming available.
We'll see what happens. I expect that the current proposal will NOT pass, but a watered-down version may eventually pass.
Midterm Elections
I'm going to go ahead and make a bold prediction -- that Republicans will NOT overtake the House nor the Senate. Well -- small chance they may get the Senate, but I believe the attempt to overturn the election supported by so many big named Republicans is going to backfire -- just as it did in the January special election in GA. Plus, I predict that many independents will actually like what Biden will have accomplished and will vote Democrat at the end of next year.
I'm not sure what to think about this development. A lot of my conservative friends fear that the "Socialist Democratic Party" will destroy our country. I wouldn't say we're going that far -- we'll definitely survive and have another chance later for conservatives to get back into power. But I do believe we may end up erring in the area of losing jobs and have another recession in a few years.
But then again -- I think that Republicans lost their seat at the table when they put Trump in the big chair. And they will likely be kept from that seat as long as they continue pushing the Trump agenda (which is only popular among a 30% base -- and not so much among independents anymore).
National Unity
This is where I saw the most hope for Biden. Obama divided us. Trump divided us ten times more than Obama did. I saw a very toxic situation brewing, which I think has already been diffused immensely ever since Biden got sworn into office. I still think Biden may have a chance in bringing Americans closer together.
However, he certainly has a strange way to carry this out. In this area I am somewhat disappointed already. Trump had said in his inaugural speech, "Come to me and I will unite you." (So funny!) Biden did a much better job in his speech asking for unity, but unfortunately, at a later time, he too said his version of "Come to me and I will unite you."
Biden seems to be really good at pushing liberal ideas, but I'm not seeing much conservative ideas being pushed. Also, Biden still doesn't seem to do too well when it comes to answering antagonistic questions. He, like Trump, seems to be very capable of walking off stage when the questions get tough.
In addition, he's not very good at winning over the Trump camp. Just like Obama did to Bush, and what Trump did to Obama, Biden is certainly continuing the blaming of the former president. He even continues to misrepresent what Trump says and utters inaccuracies all the time. For example, he blasts Trump's handling of the vaccine rollout, but then when he took over, the graph of vaccine shots per day did not really change its trend. Biden was simply continuing what Trump had started.
If Biden wants unity, he needs to speak the truth. He needs to acknowledge Trump where Trump did well. If he had simply thanked Trump for Operation Warp Speed and put him on a pedestal while praising the vaccine, then so many more conservatives would be getting the vaccine right now, and so many more conservatives might be thinking, "Biden isn't as bad as we thought he'd be."
I know Biden's heart is in the right place, but his current tactics just aren't working. Maybe he'll figure it out eventually. Those with good hearts tend to ultimately find the right answers.
My prediction on this front: I think we'll ultimately become more unified -- whether it be from the absence of a toxic president, or from Biden finally bringing us together.
Closing Remarks
Biden would not be my personal pick for president, but for the 2020 election, I did vote for him because that's what I thought was best for our nation. And that's even with me disagreeing with a lot of his policies. Ten years ago, I would have never imagined myself voting for him -- especially when I had remarked, "He looks just like his party mascot!" But yet, that's how my vote went.
Even though I may express some disappointment in Biden today and over the next four years, I do not regret my vote, and I am unlikely to regret it (I do not regret any of my presidential votes over my entire voting record). I know what direction we were heading, and I believe we've dodged that future for now. We get to survive another four years. I also know that things will not get as bad as many of my conservatives fear -- because I actually listen to what Biden is saying, and not what others say that he's saying.
Biden may continue to be wishy-washy, and provide us with plenty of funny senior moments. I think he'll fail at some of his goals, but will succeed in other areas. I also anticipate that the next four years will not be as exciting as the last four years (as I already enjoy the fact that I can go days without worrying about what the president is doing). But ... we'll see what happens.
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