at the end, in which in four years I'll do some backtesting -- see how well I did.
. I was originally raised as a Democrat (loved Jimmy Carter), but as I took courses in economics, I came to understand the importance of
-- they just work better and more efficiently, maintaining proper incentives, and achieving the best results.
. We are all immigrants, and our country flourishes with a steady influx of new talent and contributors. How does that Neil Diamond song go again?
, a cornerstone of conservative fiscal policy. Tariffs, bans, and one-sided trade deals are more inefficient, while free trade allows each country to benefit from specialization. We end up helping each other.
. A commonly misunderstood term these days, the international liberal order is a doctrine shared by most "free" countries -- that we will work together to support rising democracies, protect them from autocracies, and increase freedoms worldwide.
. The best solutions come when those with opposing views come together and find ways to make life better all around. This is the "synergy" described in Covey's "7 Habits."
As such, I've supported presidents who have shared these same principles, such as my favorite after Reagan: George W. Bush.
With Trump, however, I find many differences.
Fiscal policies: IMO, Trump brought with him several "liberal" policies such as tariffs, which increased the costs for us on certain goods. He's critical of the Federal Reserve, an independent agency governing monetary policy. He would rather we lower interest rates so the stock market can soar, but would also endanger us with hyper-inflation such as Hungary experienced a couple of years ago. He also undid some perfectly fine long-standing free-trade agreements.
Immigration: Trump says that he's for *legal* immigration -- "come in through the gate" -- which sounds great, but during his first term, he didn't really lessen illegal immigration. Rather, he made it tougher to get through the gates, cutting down on refugee limits, and even working to send back home certain green cards holders -- you know -- people who had already come through the gates. Trump's head immigration guy, Ken Cuccinelli, even went as far as to mock the poem that graces the bottom of our Statue of Liberty. Trump also tried and failed to institute a religious test to keep out Muslims. And he threatens to deport many in his next term, including green card holders who do not appreciate our prominent Christian religion. Reagan wouldn't stand for any of this.
International Liberal Order: Trump has made it clear that he tends to side with Putin in the current Ukraine war. They should cede land to Russia, and they should stay out of NATO. He also says that we need to settle American concerns first before protecting other democracies. Reagan would have condemned this whole stance: why can't we do both at the same time?
Working together: Trump may excel at making deals, but he doesn't work well with opponents. He mocks them nearly every time he opens his mouth. He gives them all cute nicknames, as most bullies do. Compared with other presidents, he had the largest amount of staff turnover in decades, many of whom ended up testifying against him in courts and hearings. And remember when Congress put together a bipartisan bill to increase security at the border, including efforts to control the flow of fentanyl? It was doing great until Trump ordered his people to kill it. This was not how Reagan governed. In fact, he had an 11th commandment: "
Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican."
So, yeah -- that's one of my major concern. I don't see Trump as a Reaganesque candidate. Rather -- he is quite the opposite. Further, I find that many of Trump's policies contradict Matthew 25:40. In that parable, Jesus tells us we need to help everyone -- even the "least of my brethren." On the other hand, Trump's messages seem to say: "...unless they're Mexican, Muslim, LGBTQ, liberal, or just plain anti-Trump."
Also, I've watched over the past decade the transition of the GOP in response to Trump. In 2015, they were mostly of the Reagan variety. So much so that they mostly condemned him and his anti-immigration rhetoric. They called him racist and a joke.
But in January 2016 when Trump became the clear front-runner, each individual GOP politician had to decide: Support Trump and keep our jobs? Or stick with Reaganesque principles and get primaried? The vast majority went with the former, but some, such as McCain, Romney, Rubio, the Bush family, the Cheneys, etc. stuck to their principles and continued condemning Trump. This was when I decided to leave the GOP. After all, I wasn't a politician and knew I wouldn't lose my job if I stuck to my own principles. I've been independent ever since, and loving it.
At first, GOP politicians tried containing and/or mitigating Trump. "We support him, but we need to remember these principles over here." But Trump ran on the platform that he was bucking the establishment. He needed to "Drain the Swamp." He called all of his GOP opponents RINOs, and it seems to have worked. It took 8 years, but little by little, the GOP has transformed into what I would like to now call the
Trumplican Party. At the beginning of 2025, there will be very few "establishment" GOP politicians left in Congress. Lisa Murkowski is still in there, but Romney is leaving, and so are other moderate members. Gone are the few who stood up to Trump -- who testified against him in court and hearings.
Trump has even taken over the Republican National Committee, installing his own daughter-in-law as co-leader, who has helped changed the priorities of the Committee to "elect Trump" rather than general support of all GOP races. It should be clear to everyone and anyone that he owns the whole Party. He's the one calling the shots in the House. What he says, the GOP does. (Has a presidential candidate ever had this much power over a party before entering office?)
Well, I'll let you in on a little secret.
Reagan created the "establishment." All those politicians who have been censured and primaried? They were all Reaganesque conservatives. If one ever hopes to return to Reaganesque times and policies -- well -- it's just not going to happen now, because they're all gone. And get this -- out of all presidential candidates who had won either the Democrat or Republican nominations --
not one of them supports Trump. This includes McCain who died a few years ago.
And frankly, I don't see how the GOP can ultimately survive in its current state. I have never seen a group so corrupt, so willing to win by any means necessary, including spreading the most obviously ridiculous lies and conspiracy theories. 2023 has also proven that they have become the
most incompetent and ineffective group I've seen in my entire lifetime. Last year was the
least productive session of Congress in decades. The GOP couldn't even elect a leader in the House -- or at least it took them weeks to do so. And when that Speaker committed the ulforgivable sin of working with the Democrats, they removed him. And when the next Speaker did the same, they threatened to remove him, too. And all those ineffective money-wasting hearings Jordan is holding -- all coming up with nothing usable? Seriously -- I'm wondering who let these clowns in, and when can we get the competent "establishment" back?
And the funniest thing. Who is it now that's pro-immigration, pro-free-trade, pro-liberal-order, pro-working-together? None other than the freakin' Democrats. Remember back in the 1980s -- who were the ones against people crossing our borders, against free trade agreements, and against fighting wars that didn't affect us? That's right -- it was the 1980s Democratic Party. The tables have turned!
So yeah -- that's another concern of mine. I see that the Republicans and Democrats have largely switched places in all these regards. And my principles have not changed. Yes, the Democrats still have some crazy liberal fiscal ideas floating around, but they're still the ones right now who I see as
sane, and the closest to Reagan-style conservatism.
I see that in large -- remember when Trump called himself a Democrat? Well, when he switched to Republican, he brought with him many historically liberal ideas and passed them off as the new conservatism. In my mind,
Trump is the true RINO, who reshaped the Party in his image, and well -- my most deepest concern is --
I just want my dang establishment party back. Let's get back to normal life.
Everything up to here is about policy and/or competency, but there's one more really big item. Before Nov 2020, I was able to at least consider voting for Trump. In fact, there were a couple of weeks in January 2020 when I was concerned about Bernie Sanders being the front Democratic runner. On social media, I even wrote: if anyone could get me to vote for Trump, it would be Bernie.
But on the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, when Trump gave his election-night speech calling for people to
stop counting votes while he was ahead, he had entered new territory -- a place that would
lose my vote permanently. Over the two months that followed, he asked us to believe that there was enough fraud that would have changed the results -- something that was nearly mathematically impossible, especially without even one piece of actionable evidence. You can read what I thought (and still think) about these fraud allegations
here.
Trump at first exhausted all of his legal options. Only one of many court cases succeeded -- some mail-in ballots were thrown out in PA. But other than that, there just wasn't any evidence. And many recounts and audits after the fact (including a heavily-GOP-biased audit in Arizona) found absolutely
nothing amiss, and did nothing but
confirm the official results that were reported.
Trump then used some not-so-legal methods, even holding heated brainstorming sessions in the White House with a few questionable people. He fired Barr and tried to find someone else willing to do what Barr wouldn't. At one moment, we were really just
one signature away from Trump succeeding. But ultimately, these people (most of whom were GOP) chose to stick to their principles, and denied him his coup. He even held a rally on Jan. 6 to protest counting the votes -- can you name even one other sitting president who had done the same?
This all culminated in the riot that ensued later that day, which wasn't quelled until Mike Pence helped to send in the National Guard. But that was all icing on the cake. Trump had already lost my vote permanently. He was already a
traitor and a
seditionist. As of right now, there is no scenario possible in which I can ever vote for Trump. Even if Bernie Sanders ends up as the Democratic nominee.
Trump's sins came more into light when many of his prior staff and other involved GOP members testified against him during the Jan. 6 Committee Hearings. Many of his followers have yet to see any of this testimony and evidence because they are instructed not to look at it. (BTW -- I do highly recommend catching some of this testimony and evidence if you haven't seen it yet -- very eye-opening.)
But the saddest part of all of this -- Trump didn't do this alone. He received a LOT of help from GOP congressmen. On Jan. 6, a very large chunk of the GOP House protested the votes without a shred of actionable evidence, and this was even AFTER the seditious riot that had caused them to have to evacuate earlier that day. Well -- some congressmen did change their minds at the end of the day.
And over the past 4 years, the GOP has been working hard in many states to weaken voting integrity, such as stopping the use of ERIC, an independent 3rd-party system that actually increases integrity and is very difficult to replicate otherwise, and also installing new laws that allows state legislatures to remove officials or even county votes if they "think" fraud exists. Though, I do have hope that shenanigans like this won't happen in 2024, as when one county in Arizona tried in 2022, they ended up in big trouble. But we'll see.
My list of GOP politicians that I can no longer rely on continues to grow. Rubio, who once stood up to Trump, now praises and pushes his lies. I will likely never be able to trust him again. I don't regret voting for him in the 2016 primary, but still, what use do I have of limp toast today? If somehow, Trump were to bow out, and Ted Cruz were to take his place, I'd still vote Democrat, because he's damaged goods. About the only GOP candidate I could consider supporting today would be
Nikki Haley, who has somehow mantained most of her
integrity and
competency. I'm greatly saddened that the
GOP has not chosen to go with the more viable candidate.
But okay -- why Democrat, then? I'd much rather support a Reagan conservative. But when none exist, what other choice do I have? In my own state 2024, I tried voting in Reagan conservatives in all races (including Nikki Haley), but NONE of them won -- well, except for possibly a couple in the one county race where we could vote for three. I'm just running out of viable GOP candidates that I can support. I'd rather choose
competent Democrats.
In 2016, I voted 3rd party: Libertarian. I actually liked Johnson, and I didn't care who'd win between Trump or Hilary.
In 2020, Biden caught my attention, as his campaign rallies were different from Trump and Bernie, whose speeches were filled with
hate and punitive rhetoric. There was one Biden speech in particular, January or February, where I heard a message of one of
hope, unity, and working together. It was EXACTLY what I felt the world needed at that particular time, especially when we were all going through the worst year ever with a mismanaged pandemic and riots that Trump stoked.
Also, the other 3rd party candidates were jokes who all seemed to believe the government should do absolutely nothing about anything, or were different flavors of Trump wrapped up in a different package.
I voted for Biden in 2020 because he was the only one whom I
actually liked, and I believed he could help us get out of that whole mess. But I did know beforehand that he's not perfect, and would be weak in certain areas.
In general, he performed exactly as I had anticipated. In a couple of areas, I was disappointed, and in other areas I was pleasantly surprised. Biden had actually gotten a LOT done before 2023. He helped pass a couple of
large bipartisan packages (with a LOT of help from Romney). One was the
Infrastructure Law that Trump had promised but never delivered, which most people seem to like (or at least they never seem to complain about it). Another was the
Build-Back-Better Law, which contained more liberal ideas I didn't like, but it was still a major bipartisan achievement. All of this required
phone calls and
meetings in Biden's office. It's the one thing I can say about Biden:
he really does know how to get people to work together behind the scenes.
Am I better off today than I was four years ago? Big time yes. 2020 was a really bad year. But not only that ... thanks to our great country and freedoms that we enjoy today, I'm actually pushing ahead in my own American Dream -- wait till you see what comes next.
I'd vote for Biden again in 2024, but man -- that debate was terrible and a little scary. I still like him, and he may continue to be fine as president, but the 25th Amendment definitely looms, and we could easily end up with
President Harris. She's a little more liberal than I'd like, but
I'd choose her any day over Trump.
I'm just worried that Biden will lose the election.
But what about 3rd Party this year? I'm usually the guy who stands up for 3rd Party voting, but this year seems to be critical.
Duverger's Law almost guarantees that a 3rd party is unlikely to win. The math just doesn't support more than two candidates. If a 3rd party, such as RFK, Jr. were to win enough electoral votes (say he gets one state), and
no one gets 270 votes, then the
House gets to pick the president. In that scenario, each state gets
2 votes each, and majority wins. Since there are
more red states than blue, Trump wins. So, I'll say this now ... if you are like me, where the
main goal is to keep Trump out of office, then as per game theory, your best bet is to
vote for the Democrat. There just isn't any way around it. Some people say, "A vote for 3rd party is a vote for Trump," but I won't go that far -- I still don't agree with it. But I will say this. You can bet your shiny dollar that
Trump supporters WILL show up at the polls, and they WILL vote for Trump. Why did Hilary lose in 2016? Not because I voted Johnson, but rather: many of those who would have voted for Hilary
stayed home, allowing Trump to win. As per my humble beliefs, those who are able to vote and choose not to
don't have the right to complain about whom ultimately gets elected.
And I know that many will say: what about Bidenflation and all the freedoms we've lost under him? And my answer is: look -- there are a lot of lies going around, propogated by practically every GOP politician. One is about inflation. It's worldwide. We economic types knew as early as
Feb 2020 that there would be inflation in the Covid recovery. It was further excerbated by the
Ukraine War. Europe has had higher inflation than us since mid-2022. Our GDP has ended up performing very well, and somehow we've avoided a recession. I think in this area, Biden has done quite well, and Trump would have made it worse (as I mentioned way above).
And the only freedoms we've lost are the ones at the hands of the GOP in several states, related to abortion and certain things that can no longer be said or taught in public schools. I think many confuse the actions of social media to combat misinformation with First Amendment infringements. But as private entities, these companies are actually guaranteed the right to do exactly that under the very same First Amendment, an idea that was reinforced by the Supreme Court's decisions a couple of days on this subject. I may not particularly agree with the social media outlets on this, but they are indeed
private entities, and they
have the right to censor. Truth Social and Parler have also censored, as is their right, too. Not being able to speak on social media doesn't mean we can't speak elsewhere.
People also confuse pandemic mitigations with First Amendment infringements. But no -- there are centuries of precedent that the government does have limited rights in certain situations to temporarily enact measures to protect the public (also reaffirmed by the SCOTUS a couple of days ago). Plus, I have very little sympathy for people complaining about "losing their rights" when the rest of us are trying to protect the lives of Grandma and Grandpa. (Don't they have their own right to live?)
As of today, I know of no remaining "you can't do that now" measures related to Covid. There isn't even a suggested 5-day quarantine if one catches Covid. So again, exactly what freedoms have we supposedly lost?
Lastly, I'd like for you all to consider this point of view, and it's a big one. I think back to the
history classes we took in high school. I was in the same room as many of my conservative friends, when we learned about
racism, tyrants, and many injustices. And why did we learn about these items? So, we could learn how to not repeat those same mistakes.
I'll say that again in different words -- so we can
help history not to repeat itself. Do you remember back in school when we would talk amongst ourselves and say, "
We'll never let this happen in real life; if I had lived back then, I wouldn't have supported it"?
Well, guess what --
now's your chance. This is exactly why I'll be voting against Trump again -- a third time. I see the
warning signs I was taught to look out for, and I'm doing
everything in my power to stop what comes next. The irony is not lost on me on how the GOP is working hard to have these items
removed from our school curriculum. If we don't teach our kids these warning signs now -- how much easier they will be to control later!
And sure -- I know Trump is nothing compared to Hitler, but dang -- it certainly seems Trump is using his rulebook. He tries to silence the media -- telling his followers not to trust them (and his people listen). He chooses a group of people to villify -- Mexican immigrants. He's already separated over a thousand children from their families.
Just last week in the debate, he repeated at least eight times the idea of
millions of incoming immigrants as the source of many of our woes. And I couldn't help but notice: where have I heard this before? Oh yeah, just swap out "Jews" for "immigrants." Yeah -- that's where I've heard this before. In fact what I'm hearing today coming out of his own mouth sounds even worse than his first term. Now with more help and immunity I think he's becoming more emboldened to say the most terrible things. Perhaps if we see him on 5th Avenue, we should duck and cover?
