Analyzing Trump's Agenda

It’s not the man, but the policies we need to look at.

That’s what many are saying these days. So, YES! Let’s look at those policies. I’ve got you covered. I’m going to take Trump’s 20-point platform from his website and perform an analysis.

At the same time, the Democrats have been attacking Project 2025. It’s part of Harris’ campaign, and all my friends are telling me about the dangers it holds. But here’s the thing – Trump doesn’t like it. He didn’t write it, so he’s not going to claim it. It was written by the Heritage Foundation, who saw that in 2017, Trump was unprepared in his transition into the presidency. The Heritage Foundation hoped to put together a play book that Trump could use, if he so chooses, so the transition in 2025 would be a lot smoother and accomplish more conservative priorities.

Sure – a lot of what Project 2025 says would come to pass, but there are a few points that contradict what Trump has been saying. And so, I fear that attacking Project 2025 is a big mistake. I’m concerned that many independent voters will see it as a big straw man, and decide not to vote for Harris.

Especially when we have Agenda 47. It’s like Project 2025, except it’s ALL Trump. And it’s OFFICIAL. It’s a series of videos and commentary on what he hopes to achieve as president. As expected, it’s a little sprawling, but it has videos of Trump himself making these claims, rather than some Heritage spokesperson. It also has a LOT in common with Project 2025. Further, it has ALL the parts that Trump agrees with and is missing the parts where Trump does not agree.

Project 2025 is something that MIGHT be, while Agenda 47 is what WILL be.

And it seems like a no-brainer to me. Why are the Democrats attacking Project 2025 when Agenda 47 is there front and center?

So, my post has two goals. Not only will I look at Trump’s issues, but I will also provide an example to my Democrat friends on how we can use Agenda 47 instead of Project 2025 to achieve the same goals. The 20-point agenda is heavily based on Agenda 47, and I will also add more detail from other commentary and videos in the “Agenda 47” section of his website. In other words, all of this is OFFICIAL.

And yes, this is long – do what you’d like. Scan the points, and pick your favorite ones for more details. Break it up into different reading sessions. Just make sure to catch the CONCLUSION at the very end.


1) SEAL THE BORDER AND STOP THE MIGRANT INVASION

I could write a whole article on my thoughts on immigration. In a nutshell, Trump was too harsh during his term, and Biden was too lenient. A good solution would be something in between.

The border could indeed use more securing – with innovative solutions and installments rather than an expensive, ugly, ineffective symbol. Ask the border agents what they need, and they’ll tell you. And what they need the most are more agents, which the GOP rejected late last year at the behest of Trump.

The fact that Trump is using the words “Migrant Invasion” should be a clear indicator that despite what he’s saying, he’s really concerned about reducing ALL immigration. This is typical anti-immigration rhetoric that’s been around for more than a century, historically offered by Democrat candidates, but now brought to us by Trump.

During Trump’s first term, illegal immigration did not go down, but rather up, especially in 2019. LEGAL immigration, on the other hand, went down. Trump made it harder to get through the gate, and his administration deported more green card holders and rejected more H1B1 VISAs (those who were here LEGALLY). He did this all while saying, “Come in through the gate.” This only increased the incentives to cross over illegally.

In general, there is no “invasion.” Mexico and Canada are our friends – not enemies. Words matter here, and I’m not interested in supporting a platform that’s all about closing the gates.


2) CARRY OUT THE LARGEST DEPORTATION OPERATION IN AMERICAN HISTORY

I fully expect this to be a huge humanitarian crisis. And expensive, too. Agenda 47 allows for the use of the military (probably the National Guard) to help facilitate the move. At times, Trump had indicated that there would be migrant camps, but more recently he says that immigrants would be moved out too fast.

Trump plans to institute a 10% tariff on all foreign goods to help pay for this effort. So, we would all flip the bill – not Mexico. Also, in areas that rely heavily on migrant work, local economies could be severely disrupted.

As in similar operations in the past, legal US citizens are likely to be deported as well.

In a worst-case scenario, if this operation is botched big time, it could even help trigger a war with long-time allies.

In short, I do not trust Trump in handling such an operation.


3) END INFLATION, AND MAKE AMERICA AFFORDABLE AGAIN

I would love to see the end of our latest inflation epidemic. Hmm … that’s an interesting word: epidemic, and yes – the biggest reason behind inflation today is COVID19 recovery. We economist types knew it was coming as early as 1Q2020 when we first started building “recovery” inflation models. There are other more recent events that affect inflation such as the Ukraine War.

Items that have contributed very little to inflation include the COVID19 relief packages – which small effects have long ago been felt and passed. Since mid-2022 we’ve had a relatively low inflation rate compared to the rest of the world. If anything, Biden hasn’t done much of anything to exacerbate inflation, such as how Orban’s meddling in Hungary caused hyperinflation.

Regardless of who gets in the White House, inflation is on its way down. Trump could only cause it to resurge with excessively high tariffs and meddling with the Reserve Bank (which is basically the mistake Orban made – forcing a lowering of interest rates instead of raising them).

In Agenda 47, Trump calls upon the doctrine of impoundment to help bring down federal spending. This is where the executive branch can force all agencies to clamp down on expenses. It something that sounds good on paper.

But consider this … in every single year Trump was in office, the annual deficit INCREASED (including adjusting for COVID19). I don’t have any confidence that Trump would do any better in 2025.

In general, how much debt the government holds doesn’t translate much into inflation and prices at home. But if we don’t get the total deficit under wraps, our nation’s credit could experience more downgrades, and yeah – that would end up increasing our prices at home, as well as lots of other bad things.

Clamping down on expenses is a good thing, but I don’t think any plan to save our deficit can be serious without a plan to increase revenues.


4) MAKE AMERICA THE DOMINANT ENERGY PRODUCER IN THE WORLD, BY FAR!

I’m not sure exactly what this means. Before I attack this one, I need to establish a core concept that relates to this point and several others.

Ronald Reagan was a strong proponent of free world trade, including the idea of specialization. That is, each country has its own strengths and weaknesses, much of which is determined by natural resources and unique talents. Instead of each nation being experts in EVERYTHING, it’s more efficient for each country to concentrate on its strengths, and sell that to the other countries for everyone’s mutual benefit. And in areas where countries are weak, it’s more efficient to purchase those goods and services from other countries that can provide it more cheaply. This idea of globalization was front and center of Reagan’s foreign policy.

We already experience this on a smaller scale. As we enter adulthood, we choose a profession and concentrate on that, while other people choose other professions. I went with actuary, economics, programming, math, and music. And sure, I could do a whole lot of other things, but my time is short, and I have money. I can pay others to do the things I choose NOT to do, so I have more time to do the things in which I excel. If I want my car fixed, I go to a car mechanic, not a doctor. Likewise, if I want my computer fixed, I’m not going to take it to a tax expert. That would be inefficient.

In other words: everyone benefits when we go to those who can produce a certain item or service cheaper than we can.

So, why again do we WANT to be the dominant energy producer? I picture Trump visiting the U. A. E. where everyone is rich and living like kings, and Trump saying: “I want this for the US.”

But aren’t we already a dominant energy producer? Well – that depends on how you define things. Currently we lead in oil production – though only because we have more land. Other countries still might be able to produce it more cheaply. Thanks to the uprise of fracking we have quickly become dominant in natural gas production. If we consider all “primary energy” then China leads, which makes sense – they have a lot of land and natural resources. With today’s trends, there’s no way we can catch up with China – and why should we? Note: primary energy is a measure of the raw energy produced before being translated into electricity or gasoline or other products we end-users use. It is the best stat in comparing production and consumption between different countries.

Should we shoot for energy independence? Sounds like a good idea. But again, it depends on how you define this. One definition could be: our primary energy production is greater than our consumption. That is, we produce enough for our needs and export the rest to other countries. Or in other words: a net exporter of energy.

By this definition, we’re already there. We’ve been independent (net exporters) since 2019 thanks to better technology and fracking. Also – green energy production makes up 9% of our total production and continues to rise.

But what I hear from most conservatives today is that energy independence means we don’t buy ANY energy from other countries. Reagan would call this a bunch of crock. Why would we cut ourselves off from the world market? The only reason we’re buying and selling is that we’re maximizing our economic benefit. We sell the stuff we produce cheaply, and we buy the stuff others produce cheaply. Reagan gives big thumbs up. If we were to cut this off – we hurt ourselves and energy prices would rise in the US.

But hey – if we truly want to show the world total energy dominance, then support nuclear fusion power. We could have it in a decade, and it would be a game changer. Whoever gets it first will be dominant.

If Trumps does what I think he would, it would not help us significantly, and the inefficiencies he’d create could make things worse.


5) STOP OUTSOURCING, AND TURN THE UNITED STATES INTO A MANUFACTURING SUPERPOWER

I won’t say much here, because I’ve already covered specialization. Sometimes outsourcing helps with costs, and sometimes it doesn’t. I wouldn’t want the government to take away this option (that is, making outsourcing illegal). Should we concentrate on manufacturing? Well – we ARE good at it. Perhaps we could take some measures to encourage this. I’d prefer that we concentrate more on producing more STEAM thinkers so we don’t get left behind in the technology world. (BTW, “A” in STEAM stands for Art.)


6) LARGE TAX CUTS FOR WORKERS, AND NO TAX ON TIPS!

I’ve already mentioned: revenue is a big problem for the US. Trump already gave us a large tax cut – mainly among the wealthy – but he didn’t curb spending, and it resulted in an annual deficit that increased each year. As much as I would love further tax cuts, I think fixing revenue should be a priority. I didn’t get much of a cut in 2017, but a lot of my rich friends did. They can pay their fair share.

The thing about tips is interesting to include in a concise policy statement. I also think it’s hilarious how the GOP goes crazy when Harris says she’s also going to pursue no tax on tips. Bigger fish, y’all. Bigger fish.


7) DEFEND OUR CONSTITUTION, OUR BILL OF RIGHTS, AND OUR FUNDAMENTAL FREEDOMS, INCLUDING FREEDOM OF SPEECH, FREEDOM OF RELIGION, AND THE RIGHT TO KEEP AND BEAR ARMS

I’m entirely on board with this. Our Constitution has worked for two and a half centuries, and I think we need to keep it going. However, it’s the interesting interpretations of the Constitution by Trump and others in the current GOP that has me concerned.

Freedom of religion seems to be more of a “Freedom for Christians and yes … I guess Jews too, kinda” while other religions become more oppressed – which would send us back to the situation England was in when we left in the first place.

I don’t see how the GOP can call for the Freedom of Speech and ban books in the same breath. It seems that free speech on campus is great until it isn’t. Trump also often threatens the press, wanting to open outlets up more for frivolous libel claims. (And people do know that news outlets can already be sued for libel if lying has actually occurred … right? I can’t think of an outlet that hasn’t been sued.)

I’m not sure what is meant by “fundamental freedoms,” but it does seem that in the past four years, it’s been the GOP-led state legislatures that have taken away several freedoms from individuals.

And I’m not sure if the right to keep and bear arms is meant to include efficient killing machines. I’ve heard the arguments as to why we need these guns for our protection … but it seems like we’re certainly expending a lot of energy trying to protect us from ourselves more than we are from foreign or other domestic threats. I think an open discussion is warranted from both sides. This whole zero-tolerance stance on both sides is getting us nowhere.

Also, points #5, #9, #16, and #18 (and possibly others) seem to involve a hint of several of us losing some kinds of freedom. In short, I don’t think I trust the Trump and the GOP right now to “protect” our fundamental freedoms.


8) PREVENT WORLD WAR THREE, RESTORE PEACE IN EUROPE AND IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AND BUILD A GREAT IRON DOME MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD OVER OUR ENTIRE COUNTRY -- ALL MADE IN AMERICA

I also don’t want World War Three, but honestly I just don’t trust Trump on this. Sure, he brokered some peace deals in the Middle East. But at the same time, during his four-year term, he weakened our nation’s political standing in the world stage – a natural consequence of his “America First” policies. When we damage our relationship with allies, become friends with totalitarians, and let them oppress neighboring democracies, it will certainly give MORE power to those who actually want WWIII.

Reagan would not approve of the current GOP platform, as it would go against his pro-liberal-international-order to stand up to protect other democracies from tyrants. He would blast the whole “America First” approach to foreign policy. He would condemn Trump for praising Putin during the Ukraine War.

As for the Iron Dome idea: it’s great for Israel, but doesn’t make sense for the US. Israel is a small country surrounded by threats. The Dome is good at handling short-range missiles. The US, on the hand, is a large country surrounded by allies. It would be expensive, ineffective, and a distraction from other more real threats. Like his ugly wall, it would just be a symbol that wouldn’t really do anything.


9) END THE WEAPONIZATION OF GOVERNMENT AGAINST THE AMERICAN PEOPLE

I’ll say just this: if I’m a crook, a conman, and I’m trying to get away from my prosecutors, what do you think I would say as they’re coming after me? Yeah, that’s right – “These agencies are being weaponized against me.” While Occam’s Razor tells me: “No, if you do the crime, these agencies are just doing their job. No one is above the law.”

Either way, it shouldn’t be lost on anyone, that as Agenda 47 addresses this concern, it proposes increasing the presidential powers to fire “rogue” agency employees, and other measures to ensure that these agencies stay in line.

Trump has also proposed using the DOJ to go after Cheney, Kinzinger, and other political opponents. In other words, ACTUALLY weaponizing our government. I guess it’s okay for Trump to do it if the goal is to dismantle that “Deep State”?


10) STOP THE MIGRANT CRIME EPIDEMIC, DEMOLISH THE FOREIGN DRUG CARTELS, CRUSH GANG VIOLENCE, AND LOCK UP VIOLENT OFFENDERS

What migrant crime epidemic? I hear a couple of pieces of anecdotal evidence, but the overall numbers don’t support the idea that migrants cause more crime than we natives do. In fact, per capita, the reverse is true. Looking back at a couple of centuries of data, this is usually the case with illegal aliens – they tend to be careful so they don’t draw attention to themselves and get deported. Plus, overall crimes numbers are trending downward. Anecdotal evidence makes for great news stories and supporting political talking points, but data is data and it says we’re doing better than we’ve had before. In other words: this campaign point is largely a straw man.

Nevertheless, it's always good to enforce the law, and lock up violent offenders, but I don’t trust Trump to do this effectively. He did a terrible job handling the BLM riots in 2020, and I don’t expect anything new in 2025.


11) REBUILD OUR CITIES, INCLUDING WASHINGTON DC, MAKING THEM SAFE, CLEAN, AND BEAUTIFUL AGAIN.

This is an interesting point, considering that cities are usually governed by states and not the federal government. Agenda 47’s Quantum Leap program suggests building up to ten Freedom Cities on underdeveloped federal land. Trump claims that people living there would be ensured the freedoms mentioned in Point #7 (which freedoms we already have), and there would be flying cars, affordable homes and a car for every family, and so on. I personally wonder if there will also be Trump Steaks and education at Trump University. Though, I think a city built on federal land would still be susceptible to its state’s laws.

Agenda 47 also proclaims a challenge to mayors and governors for already-existing cities to similarly clean them up and build great monuments for true American heroes. Here, Trump can only challenge, because again … out of his jurisdiction.

I have in mind the perfect futuristic city, and this isn’t quite it.


12) STRENGTHEN AND MODERNIZE OUR MILITARY, MAKING IT, WITHOUT QUESTION, THE STRONGEST AND MOST POWERFUL IN THE WORLD

We’re already there, though Russia and China are getting closer. Is Trump the best person to continue building up the military? He had a chance in his first term, and there wasn’t much of a noticeable increase. In fact, he ended up using money meant for the Pentagon in building up parts of his wall. Trump also exited no wars, nor entered into new ones. And Agenda 47 has several different hints of using the military on US soil (though in some cases, it may be referring to the National Guard). And Trump had often referred to the armed services as “his” forces. This concerns me somewhat.


13) KEEP THE U.S. DOLLAR AS THE WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY

This would be great, but we don’t get to decide this. “America First” would undoubtedly weaken the value of the U.S. dollar, and put our status in jeopardy. Trump’s proposed tariffs, which would be paid by mostly us, could cause further inflation and weaken the value of the dollar. Though not part of Agenda 47 (as far as I can tell), if Trump listens to his advisers who want to purposefully devalue the dollar, then yes, we’re going to lose this status as the world’s reserve currency. We could soon see the Euro overtake the Dollar in this status.


14) FIGHT FOR AND PROTECT SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE WITH NO CUTS, INCLUDING NO CHANGES TO THE RETIREMENT AGE

Not much to say here – except, isn’t it usually the GOP who calls for Social Security/Medicare reform? Eventually, we’re going to have to find out how to pay for it all a decade from now when the program fails to be actuarially solvent. One battle at a time, I suppose.


15) CANCEL THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MANDATE AND CUT COSTLY AND BURDENSOME REGULATIONS

In general, I would support less regulation. But after a decade of alarming rising temperatures followed by these last two years that have been even more alarming, I don’t think we can ignore environmental concerns.

Trump says that climate change isn’t our concern – that China is the number one polluter. However, if we look at carbon emissions per person, the US has almost double the emissions. In 2022, the US had 15 metric tons per person, while China had 8. So, yes – it is our bag, baby. China is working hard to continue lowering emissions, and we can do the same. Surely we would want those Freedom Cities to be free of excessive pollution.

However, I do understand, and I’m also skeptical of the electric vehicle mandate. It seems that for it to be a viable option for everyone, the technology still needs to be improved: faster charging times and longer travel distances. It’s better than it was 10 years ago, but I don’t think we’re there yet. I think we’ll eventually figure it out.


16) CUT FEDERAL FUNDING FOR ANY SCHOOL PUSHING CRITICAL RACE THEORY, RADICAL GENDER IDEOLOGY, AND OTHER INAPPROPRIATE RACIAL, SEXUAL, OR POLITICAL CONTENT ON OUR CHILDREN

Of all the 20 points, I believe this one most aptly captures the stupidity and incompetence that has infected the entire GOP. [Note that I am referring to the leaders – not my conservative friends who vote for them.] And I don’t say that lightly. It’s a HUGE reason why I left the GOP in 2016, and I see no sign of returning anytime soon. 2023 was the least-productive House session in decades, and it’s largely because of stupid nonsense like Point #16.

CRT is a topic that was never taught anywhere except as an elective or required only in certain related majors at certain colleges. But yet it has become a buzzword that most GOP leaders use to rile up the conservative masses. And the main concern? “We don’t want our children to feel bad at school.”

Look – I know schools teach things I don’t agree with. That’s why we have frequent conversations with our children so they can have more understanding. And I get that young minds are impressionable – but still, the best remedy is – talk to your children.

As a young student, I remember feeling bad when we learned about racism and some of the terrible things that happened in the US. Of course, I knew I wasn’t the one who committed those terrible acts, but it helped me to resolve not to do them when I got older, and also to help others not to do it.

I also remember learning things I didn’t agree with … and I dealt with it. Surely we could have a little more faith in the ability of our children to handle these things.

I see Point #16 as a way to try and rewrite the history books so that those who practice these racist and anti-tolerant acts can avoid having to feel bad about it.


17) KEEP MEN OUT OF WOMEN'S SPORTS

What’s this doing here? This doesn't appear anywhere in my list of concerns. I get that we should have an open discussion – how do we handle women who have a possibly unfair testosterone advantage but still want to play sports? I don’t know if I trust politicians to decide this one. Next!


18) DEPORT PRO-HAMAS RADICALS AND MAKE OUR COLLEGE CAMPUSES SAFE AND PATRIOTIC AGAIN

I’d like college campuses to be safe. Also, I’d prefer for them to be places where people can openly disagree. Oh – there’s that free speech thing again. Did you know in 2019 Trump signed an order pushing for free speech at all college campuses? What if that speech makes campuses not safe, such as antisemitism or anti-Muslim rhetoric? Anyone else see this clash between points #7 and #18?

Irony aside, I do think a solution exists where one can have that promised freedom of speech AND also air out concerns. What concerns me here is that Point #18 seems so one-sided. I get that Hamas is an evil terrorist organization, but what exactly constitutes a pro-Hamas radical? What about pro-Israeli-settler radicals? If one speaks up about all the innocents being killed, does that make them worthy of deportation?

I should mention here, that these people considered for deportation are aliens who are here legally – green cards or educational VISAs. To deport them on religious grounds alone is simply unconstitutional. You remember Trump’s first travel ban that got rejected by the Judicial Branch because of its religious test – and how it wasn’t accepted until the religious test was taken out? Dang that First Amendment and the Freedom of [ALL] Religions. Likewise, Trump will be unable to deport legal aliens solely on the fact that they are pro-Hamas, Muslim, or a member of any other religion, without seriously damaging our Constitution and the validity of our First Amendment.

And make our colleges patriotic again? What does this mean? Agenda 47 promises to create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values and support the American Way of Life, and punish any who weaponize or nationalize civics education – whatever that means. This also reeks of countless lawsuits. Maybe I’ll go get my popcorn.

If one must sacrifice their own beliefs to become a teacher, or sign allegiances to Trump in order to get access to certain benefits, what does that mean for the rest of us and our freedoms?


19) SECURE OUR ELECTIONS, INCLUDING SAME DAY VOTING, VOTER IDENTIFICATION, PAPER BALLOTS, AND PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP

Okay. I want secure elections as much as the next guy. And 2020 was pretty much the most secure election we’ve had. Don’t believe me? Just ask Chris Krebs. That was the guy that Trump put in charge of increasing voting security, and well – he did a very good job. We know this because every single recount – automated and hand-counted – confirmed results in all 50 states. Several audits also confirmed the same results, including the highly GOP-biased Cyber Ninjas audit in Arizona.

BTW, did you know that most Republicans don’t realize that Cyber Ninjas found about 360 more votes for Biden, and that their report on September 24, 2021 states they did not find any proof of fraud to support a stolen election? I still get tons of messages today about how that audit found so many issues (turned out they just didn’t understand Arizona law).

I also still get several messages about the Georgia GOP reporting serious lapses of protocol in the 2020 election. But what people don’t seem to understand is that while some of those allegations might be true, there were already redundancies in place that kicked in to make sure that each vote was counted accurately. This was all confirmed and validated by the hand recount of ballots. If there were any issues, it would have been uncovered.

My concern is that over the last four years, in response to the Trump’s failure to overturn the results, the GOP in several battleground states have passed laws to make it easier for Trump to succeed this year. Many GOP states have decided to drop ERIC, a non-partisan national tool that is very good at identifying fraud. And some of those states have tried to replicate ERIC with their own database, but are failing because they don’t have access to national data. So, if someone votes twice in two of those states in 2024, it will be much harder to find.

The laws that were recently passed in Georgia also further erode the security of their elections. It allows one county to hold off on certifying results if it perceives shenanigans in another county. In other words, if Trump calls asking for 12,000 votes, officials might actually be able to comply this time around – just pick a county and don’t certify those results.

I do not trust anyone in the GOP at this time to head election security. Occam’s Razor has me seeing voter suppression, and I don’t like it.


20) UNITE OUR COUNTRY BY BRINGING IT TO NEW AND RECORD LEVELS OF SUCCESS

I don’t see how a leader can unite a country who mocks, vilifies, and threatens others with jail time. It is just morally impossible. He failed to unite in his first term, and he’ll fail again. He is not the leader I am looking for.


CONCLUSIONS

I do not like Trump’s policies, and I do not like the direction the GOP has gone. If Trump wins, I sincerely fear for our country and our Constitution. Agenda 47 is clear that Trump will try to increase his presidential power and do terrible things to certain groups of people. I fear that my freedoms may be taken away solely on the grounds that I disagree.

I’m saddened that I’m having to express these ideas. I wonder what has become of our humanity and our capacity to help and love each other. I wonder why so many people are more than willing to lash out at certain groups of people, as if they believe that’s the only way to be happy. I wonder why so many people choose a representative who spews hate every time he speaks. I wonder why many can’t see how much he botched during his first term because of … well … his ego, and his lack of experience and understanding of how the Constitution works.

I wonder: why do we even have to have this discussion today? 20 years ago, this 20-point agenda would have been condemned by both the GOP and the Democrats – and with prejudice. What have we become? Why can’t we go back to having reasonable conversations on political matters?

I’m also concerned that Harris isn’t going to win. Her campaign seems to think she’s got this in the bag, but the campaign is suffering from missteps, such as going after Project 2025 instead of Agenda 47. She’s going to lose the independent voters, and I’m hitting my forehead. Leave it to the Democrats to lose yet another easily-winnable race.

To Trump supporters, I say: I do not like his policies. While I may not hate Trump, I do despise his policies.

To my liberal friends, I say: please commence attacking Agenda 47 instead of Project 2025, and I promise you will have better results.

Yes -- I'm Voting Democrat This Year

Many of my conservative friends ask me: "Do you regret voting for Biden?" or "Why would anyone still vote for him?" If you'd like to know and understand the answers, keep on reading. Just keep in mind ... I've listened to the many stories and arguments of my conservative friends, and I've strived to understand them, and I totally get why they want to vote for Trump. It's not because they hate democracy, but rather they have genuine concerns that they feel Democrats are ignoring.

I also have my own different concerns, and I invite all conservatives everywhere to strive to understand. I likewise do not hate America, and I have reasons for why I'm voting the way I will. What follows represents some of my deepest and sincere concerns -- and I realize this is long, but I'm intentionally using language that helps people read faster.

Plus, I'll add in some fun predictions at the end, in which in four years I'll do some backtesting -- see how well I did. 

Overall, I consider myself to be a Reagan conservative. I was originally raised as a Democrat (loved Jimmy Carter), but as I took courses in economics, I came to understand the importance of conservative fiscal policies -- they just work better and more efficiently, maintaining proper incentives, and achieving the best results.

Reagan embodied these fiscal policies, and he was also pro-immigration. We are all immigrants, and our country flourishes with a steady influx of new talent and contributors. How does that Neil Diamond song go again?

Reagan was also pro-free-trade, a cornerstone of conservative fiscal policy. Tariffs, bans, and one-sided trade deals are more inefficient, while free trade allows each country to benefit from specialization. We end up helping each other.

Reagan was also pro-liberal-order. A commonly misunderstood term these days, the international liberal order is a doctrine shared by most "free" countries -- that we will work together to support rising democracies, protect them from autocracies, and increase freedoms worldwide.

Reagan also believed that we should all work together. The best solutions come when those with opposing views come together and find ways to make life better all around. This is the "synergy" described in Covey's "7 Habits."

As such, I've supported presidents who have shared these same principles, such as my favorite after Reagan: George W. Bush.

With Trump, however, I find many differences.

Fiscal policies: IMO, Trump brought with him several "liberal" policies such as tariffs, which increased the costs for us on certain goods. He's critical of the Federal Reserve, an independent agency governing monetary policy. He would rather we lower interest rates so the stock market can soar, but would also endanger us with hyper-inflation such as Hungary experienced a couple of years ago. He also undid some perfectly fine long-standing free-trade agreements.

Immigration: Trump says that he's for *legal* immigration -- "come in through the gate" -- which sounds great, but during his first term, he didn't really lessen illegal immigration. Rather, he made it tougher to get through the gates, cutting down on refugee limits, and even working to send back home certain green cards holders -- you know -- people who had already come through the gates. Trump's head immigration guy, Ken Cuccinelli, even went as far as to mock the poem that graces the bottom of our Statue of Liberty. Trump also tried and failed to institute a religious test to keep out Muslims. And he threatens to deport many in his next term, including green card holders who do not appreciate our prominent Christian religion. Reagan wouldn't stand for any of this.

International Liberal Order: Trump has made it clear that he tends to side with Putin in the current Ukraine war. They should cede land to Russia, and they should stay out of NATO. He also says that we need to settle American concerns first before protecting other democracies. Reagan would have condemned this whole stance: why can't we do both at the same time?

Working together: Trump may excel at making deals, but he doesn't work well with opponents. He mocks them nearly every time he opens his mouth. He gives them all cute nicknames, as most bullies do. Compared with other presidents, he had the largest amount of staff turnover in decades, many of whom ended up testifying against him in courts and hearings. And remember when Congress put together a bipartisan bill to increase security at the border, including efforts to control the flow of fentanyl? It was doing great until Trump ordered his people to kill it. This was not how Reagan governed. In fact, he had an 11th commandment: "Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican."

So, yeah -- that's one of my major concern. I don't see Trump as a Reaganesque candidate. Rather -- he is quite the opposite. Further, I find that many of Trump's policies contradict Matthew 25:40. In that parable, Jesus tells us we need to help everyone -- even the "least of my brethren." On the other hand, Trump's messages seem to say: "...unless they're Mexican, Muslim, LGBTQ, liberal, or just plain anti-Trump."

Also, I've watched over the past decade the transition of the GOP in response to Trump. In 2015, they were mostly of the Reagan variety. So much so that they mostly condemned him and his anti-immigration rhetoric. They called him racist and a joke.

But in January 2016 when Trump became the clear front-runner, each individual GOP politician had to decide: Support Trump and keep our jobs? Or stick with Reaganesque principles and get primaried? The vast majority went with the former, but some, such as McCain, Romney, Rubio, the Bush family, the Cheneys, etc. stuck to their principles and continued condemning Trump. This was when I decided to leave the GOP. After all, I wasn't a politician and knew I wouldn't lose my job if I stuck to my own principles. I've been independent ever since, and loving it.

At first, GOP politicians tried containing and/or mitigating Trump. "We support him, but we need to remember these principles over here." But Trump ran on the platform that he was bucking the establishment. He needed to "Drain the Swamp." He called all of his GOP opponents RINOs, and it seems to have worked. It took 8 years, but little by little, the GOP has transformed into what I would like to now call the Trumplican Party. At the beginning of 2025, there will be very few "establishment" GOP politicians left in Congress. Lisa Murkowski is still in there, but Romney is leaving, and so are other moderate members. Gone are the few who stood up to Trump -- who testified against him in court and hearings.

Trump has even taken over the Republican National Committee, installing his own daughter-in-law as co-leader, who has helped changed the priorities of the Committee to "elect Trump" rather than general support of all GOP races. It should be clear to everyone and anyone that he owns the whole Party. He's the one calling the shots in the House. What he says, the GOP does. (Has a presidential candidate ever had this much power over a party before entering office?)

Well, I'll let you in on a little secret. Reagan created the "establishment." All those politicians who have been censured and primaried? They were all Reaganesque conservatives. If one ever hopes to return to Reaganesque times and policies -- well -- it's just not going to happen now, because they're all gone. And get this -- out of all presidential candidates who had won either the Democrat or Republican nominations -- not one of them supports Trump. This includes McCain who died a few years ago.

And frankly, I don't see how the GOP can ultimately survive in its current state. I have never seen a group so corrupt, so willing to win by any means necessary, including spreading the most obviously ridiculous lies and conspiracy theories. 2023 has also proven that they have become the most incompetent and ineffective group I've seen in my entire lifetime. Last year was the least productive session of Congress in decades. The GOP couldn't even elect a leader in the House -- or at least it took them weeks to do so. And when that Speaker committed the ulforgivable sin of working with the Democrats, they removed him. And when the next Speaker did the same, they threatened to remove him, too. And all those ineffective money-wasting hearings Jordan is holding -- all coming up with nothing usable? Seriously -- I'm wondering who let these clowns in, and when can we get the competent "establishment" back?

And the funniest thing. Who is it now that's pro-immigration, pro-free-trade, pro-liberal-order, pro-working-together? None other than the freakin' Democrats. Remember back in the 1980s -- who were the ones against people crossing our borders, against free trade agreements, and against fighting wars that didn't affect us? That's right -- it was the 1980s Democratic Party. The tables have turned!

So yeah -- that's another concern of mine. I see that the Republicans and Democrats have largely switched places in all these regards. And my principles have not changed. Yes, the Democrats still have some crazy liberal fiscal ideas floating around, but they're still the ones right now who I see as sane, and the closest to Reagan-style conservatism.

I see that in large -- remember when Trump called himself a Democrat? Well, when he switched to Republican, he brought with him many historically liberal ideas and passed them off as the new conservatism. In my mind, Trump is the true RINO, who reshaped the Party in his image, and well -- my most deepest concern is -- I just want my dang establishment party back. Let's get back to normal life.

Everything up to here is about policy and/or competency, but there's one more really big item. Before Nov 2020, I was able to at least consider voting for Trump. In fact, there were a couple of weeks in January 2020 when I was concerned about Bernie Sanders being the front Democratic runner. On social media, I even wrote: if anyone could get me to vote for Trump, it would be Bernie.

But on the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, when Trump gave his election-night speech calling for people to stop counting votes while he was ahead, he had entered new territory -- a place that would lose my vote permanently. Over the two months that followed, he asked us to believe that there was enough fraud that would have changed the results -- something that was nearly mathematically impossible, especially without even one piece of actionable evidence. You can read what I thought (and still think) about these fraud allegations here.

Trump at first exhausted all of his legal options. Only one of many court cases succeeded -- some mail-in ballots were thrown out in PA. But other than that, there just wasn't any evidence. And many recounts and audits after the fact (including a heavily-GOP-biased audit in Arizona) found absolutely nothing amiss, and did nothing but confirm the official results that were reported.

Trump then used some not-so-legal methods, even holding heated brainstorming sessions in the White House with a few questionable people. He fired Barr and tried to find someone else willing to do what Barr wouldn't. At one moment, we were really just one signature away from Trump succeeding. But ultimately, these people (most of whom were GOP) chose to stick to their principles, and denied him his coup. He even held a rally on Jan. 6 to protest counting the votes -- can you name even one other sitting president who had done the same?

This all culminated in the riot that ensued later that day, which wasn't quelled until Mike Pence helped to send in the National Guard. But that was all icing on the cake. Trump had already lost my vote permanently. He was already a traitor and a seditionist. As of right now, there is no scenario possible in which I can ever vote for Trump. Even if Bernie Sanders ends up as the Democratic nominee.

Trump's sins came more into light when many of his prior staff and other involved GOP members testified against him during the Jan. 6 Committee Hearings. Many of his followers have yet to see any of this testimony and evidence because they are instructed not to look at it. (BTW -- I do highly recommend catching some of this testimony and evidence if you haven't seen it yet -- very eye-opening.)

But the saddest part of all of this -- Trump didn't do this alone. He received a LOT of help from GOP congressmen. On Jan. 6, a very large chunk of the GOP House protested the votes without a shred of actionable evidence, and this was even AFTER the seditious riot that had caused them to have to evacuate earlier that day. Well -- some congressmen did change their minds at the end of the day.

And over the past 4 years, the GOP has been working hard in many states to weaken voting integrity, such as stopping the use of ERIC, an independent 3rd-party system that actually increases integrity and is very difficult to replicate otherwise, and also installing new laws that allows state legislatures to remove officials or even county votes if they "think" fraud exists. Though, I do have hope that shenanigans like this won't happen in 2024, as when one county in Arizona tried in 2022, they ended up in big trouble. But we'll see.

My list of GOP politicians that I can no longer rely on continues to grow. Rubio, who once stood up to Trump, now praises and pushes his lies. I will likely never be able to trust him again. I don't regret voting for him in the 2016 primary, but still, what use do I have of limp toast today? If somehow, Trump were to bow out, and Ted Cruz were to take his place, I'd still vote Democrat, because he's damaged goods. About the only GOP candidate I could consider supporting today would be Nikki Haley, who has somehow mantained most of her integrity and competency. I'm greatly saddened that the GOP has not chosen to go with the more viable candidate.

But okay -- why Democrat, then? I'd much rather support a Reagan conservative. But when none exist, what other choice do I have? In my own state 2024, I tried voting in Reagan conservatives in all races (including Nikki Haley), but NONE of them won -- well, except for possibly a couple in the one county race where we could vote for three. I'm just running out of viable GOP candidates that I can support. I'd rather choose competent Democrats.

In 2016, I voted 3rd party: Libertarian. I actually liked Johnson, and I didn't care who'd win between Trump or Hilary.

In 2020, Biden caught my attention, as his campaign rallies were different from Trump and Bernie, whose speeches were filled with hate and punitive rhetoric. There was one Biden speech in particular, January or February, where I heard a message of one of hope, unity, and working together. It was EXACTLY what I felt the world needed at that particular time, especially when we were all going through the worst year ever with a mismanaged pandemic and riots that Trump stoked.

Also, the other 3rd party candidates were jokes who all seemed to believe the government should do absolutely nothing about anything, or were different flavors of Trump wrapped up in a different package.

I voted for Biden in 2020 because he was the only one whom I actually liked, and I believed he could help us get out of that whole mess. But I did know beforehand that he's not perfect, and would be weak in certain areas.

In general, he performed exactly as I had anticipated. In a couple of areas, I was disappointed, and in other areas I was pleasantly surprised. Biden had actually gotten a LOT done before 2023. He helped pass a couple of large bipartisan packages (with a LOT of help from Romney). One was the Infrastructure Law that Trump had promised but never delivered, which most people seem to like (or at least they never seem to complain about it). Another was the Build-Back-Better Law, which contained more liberal ideas I didn't like, but it was still a major bipartisan achievement. All of this required phone calls and meetings in Biden's office. It's the one thing I can say about Biden: he really does know how to get people to work together behind the scenes.

Am I better off today than I was four years ago? Big time yes. 2020 was a really bad year. But not only that ... thanks to our great country and freedoms that we enjoy today, I'm actually pushing ahead in my own American Dream -- wait till you see what comes next.

I'd vote for Biden again in 2024, but man -- that debate was terrible and a little scary. I still like him, and he may continue to be fine as president, but the 25th Amendment definitely looms, and we could easily end up with President Harris. She's a little more liberal than I'd like, but I'd choose her any day over Trump. I'm just worried that Biden will lose the election.

But what about 3rd Party this year? I'm usually the guy who stands up for 3rd Party voting, but this year seems to be critical. Duverger's Law almost guarantees that a 3rd party is unlikely to win. The math just doesn't support more than two candidates. If a 3rd party, such as RFK, Jr. were to win enough electoral votes (say he gets one state), and no one gets 270 votes, then the House gets to pick the president. In that scenario, each state gets 2 votes each, and majority wins. Since there are more red states than blue, Trump wins.

So, I'll say this now ... if you are like me, where the main goal is to keep Trump out of office, then as per game theory, your best bet is to vote for the Democrat. There just isn't any way around it. Some people say, "A vote for 3rd party is a vote for Trump," but I won't go that far -- I still don't agree with it. But I will say this. You can bet your shiny dollar that Trump supporters WILL show up at the polls, and they WILL vote for Trump. Why did Hilary lose in 2016? Not because I voted Johnson, but rather: many of those who would have voted for Hilary stayed home, allowing Trump to win. As per my humble beliefs, those who are able to vote and choose not to don't have the right to complain about whom ultimately gets elected.

And I know that many will say: what about Bidenflation and all the freedoms we've lost under him? And my answer is: look -- there are a lot of lies going around, propogated by practically every GOP politician. One is about inflation. It's worldwide. We economic types knew as early as Feb 2020 that there would be inflation in the Covid recovery. It was further excerbated by the Ukraine War. Europe has had higher inflation than us since mid-2022. Our GDP has ended up performing very well, and somehow we've avoided a recession. I think in this area, Biden has done quite well, and Trump would have made it worse (as I mentioned way above).

And the only freedoms we've lost are the ones at the hands of the GOP in several states, related to abortion and certain things that can no longer be said or taught in public schools. I think many confuse the actions of social media to combat misinformation with First Amendment infringements. But as private entities, these companies are actually guaranteed the right to do exactly that under the very same First Amendment, an idea that was reinforced by the Supreme Court's decisions a couple of days on this subject. I may not particularly agree with the social media outlets on this, but they are indeed private entities, and they have the right to censor. Truth Social and Parler have also censored, as is their right, too. Not being able to speak on social media doesn't mean we can't speak elsewhere.

People also confuse pandemic mitigations with First Amendment infringements. But no -- there are centuries of precedent that the government does have limited rights in certain situations to temporarily enact measures to protect the public (also reaffirmed by the SCOTUS a couple of days ago). Plus, I have very little sympathy for people complaining about "losing their rights" when the rest of us are trying to protect the lives of Grandma and Grandpa. (Don't they have their own right to live?)

As of today, I know of no remaining "you can't do that now" measures related to Covid. There isn't even a suggested 5-day quarantine if one catches Covid. So again, exactly what freedoms have we supposedly lost?

Lastly, I'd like for you all to consider this point of view, and it's a big one. I think back to the history classes we took in high school. I was in the same room as many of my conservative friends, when we learned about racism, tyrants, and many injustices. And why did we learn about these items? So, we could learn how to not repeat those same mistakes.

I'll say that again in different words -- so we can help history not to repeat itself. Do you remember back in school when we would talk amongst ourselves and say, "We'll never let this happen in real life; if I had lived back then, I wouldn't have supported it"?

Well, guess what -- now's your chance. This is exactly why I'll be voting against Trump again -- a third time. I see the warning signs I was taught to look out for, and I'm doing everything in my power to stop what comes next. The irony is not lost on me on how the GOP is working hard to have these items removed from our school curriculum. If we don't teach our kids these warning signs now -- how much easier they will be to control later!

And sure -- I know Trump is nothing compared to Hitler, but dang -- it certainly seems Trump is using his rulebook. He tries to silence the media -- telling his followers not to trust them (and his people listen). He chooses a group of people to villify -- Mexican immigrants. He's already separated over a thousand children from their families.

Just last week in the debate, he repeated at least eight times the idea of millions of incoming immigrants as the source of many of our woes. And I couldn't help but notice: where have I heard this before? Oh yeah, just swap out "Jews" for "immigrants." Yeah -- that's where I've heard this before. In fact what I'm hearing today coming out of his own mouth sounds even worse than his first term. Now with more help and immunity I think he's becoming more emboldened to say the most terrible things. Perhaps if we see him on 5th Avenue, we should duck and cover?

He's already talking about a third term. Just like Putin successfully changed their constitution in 2020 to allow him to be in office till 2036, Trump will try to do the same here. And many have already been installed to help him achieve this when the time comes.

He has talked about being a dictator on Day 1. He may have been joking, but he has clearly said that he will go after Biden, the Jan. 6 Committee, and other opponents. While Trump complains that agencies are being weaponized against him now, he vows to weaponize these same agencies to achieve his retributions. Whether he succeeds will be up to how well checks and balances continue to hold.

He is also likely to support aspects of Project 2025, a conservative think-tank solution on how to achieve certain ultra-conservative goals, including giving the President much more power over all agencies, taking over the Federal Reserve, installing Christianity in our government, anti-diversity initiatives, using the military to enforce law, and so on.

So, yeah -- I'm very concerned about the future of our country. I love my country, and I want it to continue. I fear what Trump and his new party can do to our country, and I wonder how long it will take for us to recover. I'm willing to play the long game and vote for anyone else now with the hopes of surviving and returning back to Reaganesque conservative principles in the future.

And here are my predictions:

The following will *surely* happen ...

• Trump will win in 2024 (I don't see how it can be avoided now).
• He will put an end to or pardon himself from all lawsuits currently against him.
• He will indeed push for a third term.
• He will take stronger measures to silence the media.
• Inflation will soar.
• He will carry out mass deportations, and it will be a humanitarian disaster. Likely some legal immigrants will be removed as well.
• He will make a LOT of money, which his supporters will happily provide to their own detriment.
• At some point he will employ the military on our soil, whether it be martial law or to help in deportations.
• He will succeed in reforming all executive agencies and gain full control over all of them.
• He will weaken many of our environmental protection efforts, which will lead to more pollution, stronger storms, and sicker people.
• He will happily help give land from the Ukraine to Putin "peacefully."
• He will further weaken our standing in the world, allowing other autocrats to take over other democracies.
• He will allow China and Russia to become much more powerful.

The following *might* happen ...

• Trump will successfully destroy the independence of the Federal Reserve.
• He will help decrease LGBTQ protections.
• He may succeed in imprisoning his political opponents -- though hopefully checks and balances will kick in.
• We will fail another pandemic.

Things could also get very bad beyond all this, but I won't go there. If his people come to cart me away -- you will know that it's bad.

And lastly, one last prediction I made back in 2021 and still sticking with ...

• Ultimately we *will* survive and recover. We will see after the fact all the bad things that transpired, and we will work to restore what we once had. Some people will live out the rest of their lives with the realization and regret of what they allowed and enabled. New history books will be written, so that we might try again to avoid these mistakes in the future. The GOP will be dismantled, and another party will rise up in its stead.

So, whomever the Democrats choose as their candidate, whether it be Biden or any other, that's whom I will vote for. And I will do so with a clear conscious, no matter what comes next.