Coronavirus Newsletter -- Miracle Cures

Personal Update / Sweden Update / Miracle Cures Showcase

Today, I've decided to devote most of my newsletter to showcasing miracle cures. This past week has been interesting with the two or more videos from the "America's Frontline Doctors," all of which appear to be banned, such that I had to go to a super-secret website to find the first one (and it's even a recording of the recording -- I felt like I had to take a shower after watching it).

But first, a couple of housekeeping items.

Personal Update
Good news and bad on my part ... I just got back my antibody test results. Finally being healthy enough, I went to give blood at the Red Cross, which is giving free antibody tests for another couple more weeks. It only took two days for the results to get back. And the result ...

NEGATIVE

I suppose there's a small chance that I caught C19 a long time ago, suffered long-term effects for months, and then lost my immunity just in time for this antibody test. However, the chances are minuscule after two negative "active" virus tests and one negative antibody test. In hindsight, a simple lingering bronchitis infection (triggered by allergies or a regular cold) could have explained all my symptoms.

So ... I'm still susceptible. Dang.

Sweden Update
Two weeks ago, I promised to come back and look at Sweden's Case numbers, and I totally forgot. Well, let's take care of that now. I previously showed how Sweden was reporting their deaths by death-date instead of report-date (like the rest of the world is), and how it makes their deaths look better than they are, and I wondered if they were doing the same with the Case numbers.

Turns out ... they are not. Measured on 7/16, I recorded 74,691 total cases on 7/9 and 77,129 on 7/16, showing an implied 2,438 cases for that week.

Measured on 7/23, I saw 74,686 on 7/9 and 77,128 on 7/16, for a total of 2,442. As you can see, the numbers did not change much.

And measured on 7/30, I saw 74,681 on 7/9 and 77,122 on 7/16, for a total of 2,441.

So, it appears that cases are still being reported on a report-date basis.

Further, looking at implied death reports for Sweden over the past four weeks, I've seen weekly counts of: 112; 90; 95; 63. So, either way we look at it, it appears that Sweden is indeed ramping down in both cases and deaths. I'll touch on this further next week when I discuss a risk-factor based assessment approach to understanding why some countries are doing better than others.

Miracle Cures Showcase
Okay ... finally the moment we've all been waiting for. What about all these miracle COVID cures we keep hearing about? I can tell you here and now, that if anyone tells you, "We got a cure, and no one will listen to us, and we could save the world, and all those studies are fake science," don't believe them. Because I know that tens of thousands of doctors, scientists, and epidemiologists all over the world have been fighting this. They've been trying countless different methods, and they're taking notes, and sharing results with each other. And these miracle cures? They're trying them, too ... and well ... in practice all over the world, not a single drug has proven to be a "silver bullet" that destroys COVID. Because, think about it ... if someone did find that silver bullet, they'd tell others, and then COVID really would disappear ... especially if the cure is cheap. It turns out that most of these wonder cures actually do show some use, but nowhere near the 100% cure rate being claimed.

To help you understand what's going on, I need to describe one of my favorite scams -- it demonstrates the math behind coincidences and why we need controlled studies.

This scam starts with letters mailed to 128 people. Start with a baseball game: the Braves vs. the Cubs. In half of the letters (64), write that the Braves are going to win, and in the other half write that the Cubs are going to win.

The Braves win, so next week, send 64 letters to all who received the Braves letters earlier. This time let's pick: Brewers vs. the Pirates. And again, in half the letters (32) say the Brewers win, and in the other half, the Pirates win.

After the Pirates win, we get to send 32 more letters: 16 saying Cardinals, and 16 saying Dodgers.

After the Dodgers win, there now exist 16 people who think that we've correctly predicted 3 games in a row: Braves / Pirates / Dodgers. So, this time say, "I gave you 3 winners in a row. Give me $100, and I'll tell you who wins in the Phillies vs. Marlins game in two weeks."

Then you probably see what comes next. If 10 give us $100, we're suddenly $1000 richer. And then we send this letter to 5 winners: "Okay ... that's 4 games in a row, so give me $250 for the next bet." ... and so on. If we play it just right, there's going to be 1 person out of the original 128 who will think we're psychic and give us $1000... no one could get that many games in a row ... right? So, how exactly did we achieve it? Think about this for a moment.

Now let's get back to that "American's Frontline Doctors" video, which I believe is a MAJOR SETBACK (yes -- I'm screaming that part) for what we've been accomplishing the last couple of weeks. When Trump Jr. and his dad decided to retweet the video (several times), I'm sure it has caused many right-wing supporters to stop wearing masks again.

In the video, they report 100% cure rates. They give passionate testimony ... especially Dr. Stella Immanuel, who's kind of famous now -- claiming she's treated 350 COVID patients and they've all gotten better. Not even one of them has died.

But get this ... it appears that all of these doctors work at clinics, family practices, and urgent cares. So, if anyone gets really sick from COVID, these are not the doctors who would care for them. So, let's take a closer look at Dr. Immanuel's 350 patients.

First, ask yourself, who exactly would go to her clinic? To help you answer, here is a video showcasing her practice from the clinic's Facebook page. It kind of reminds me of something out of "Better Call Saul," but I should be nice. It seems to be one of many first-defense clinics, which handles only the small stuff. So, I would entirely expect the vast majority of patients to survive anyway. Think of your family practitioner. And look at all the patients you see in the lobby and the halls ... do any of them look like they're going to die? It's totally different when you go into a hospital.

So, my questions on the 350 patients:

• How many of the 350 actually tested positive? (I thought I was positive for 2 months, but it evidently turned out to be something else.)
• How many of them had only mild symptoms that really didn't need treatment? (Remember, the really bad ones go straight to the hospital.)
• Has she followed up on all 350 patients to see if they subsequently got really sick and went to the hospital without letting her know? (Give it a week and we may start hearing stories of "My wife went to see her and later she went to the hospital and died." I give it a 60% chance of this happening in the next 7 days.) Ask yourself ... last time you went to the hospital, did you call a clinic to let them know what you were doing?
• Was it really the miracle cure, or was it some other treatment that really helped some patients get better? For example, Dr. Immanuel describes a man with COVID and pneumonia -- she treated it, and he got better, but was it because of the miracle cure or the antibiotics she prescribed for the pneumonia?
• How many other similar practitioners have a "100% cure rate" even though they didn't prescribe the miracle cure?

Even if all 350 patients did indeed survive, it could still be that she hit the lottery, like I described in the scam above. But for every lucky doctor like this, there are hundreds of other doctors who haven't been lucky. This is why we need controlled studies that can be replicated in other environments.

I'm not saying Dr. Immanuel is a terrible doctor, but she is clearly a terrible scientist / epidemiologist based on her claims that scientific studies are "fake science." But that's okay ... doctors should stick with doctoring, and scientists / epidemiologists should be the ones guiding us through this epidemic ... this is called specialization, and in practice it works pretty well.

And as for these doctors claiming to be "frontline doctors" in the trenches ... I see this as a slap in the face of those who are truly putting themselves in harm's way ... doctors and nurses who are manning the hospital beds -- the ones who are working countless hours many days a week, who are reportedly getting very exhausted and very distraught from the deaths they see.

BTW, as much as I hate the existence of these videos, I sincerely believe it is much more dangerous to censor them and remove all access. #1) It makes it much more difficult to research and debunk (I had to sign up with achive.org to find the video and a transcript). And #2) It really buys into the conspiracy theory angle ... "See, it's a coverup," which as I described before really helps conspiracists entrench into their beliefs. I think censoring these videos gave them a lot more publicity, and ended up doing a lot more damage.

But enough about these doctors ... let's take a look at all these miracle cures and see how they're doing. None of these are outright bad, and they have their uses, but so far, nothing by itself has proved to be a miracle cure.

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ): We'll start with the most popular miracle cure. I believe this one has gotten a lot of traction because Trump supported it and then complained about hospitals not using it.

HCQ used to be really good at treating malaria, but little by little, malaria is becoming more resistant to it. In fact, as Dr. Immanuel explains above, HCQ is her speciality for when she treated malaria in Nigeria. It would make sense that she, an HCQ expert, would be all over this as a cure for COVID19.

HCQ is also used to treat lupus and some types of arthritis. Major side effects include heart and vision problems.

At first, HCQ looked to be promising in fighting COVID19. A doctor in France published his results of using HCQ along with azithromycin (Z-Pak). Other studies used it with zinc, while others used all three. Some studies showed improvement, while others didn't.

In April, the FDA opened up HCQ for emergency use ... the idea being, "it doesn't hurt to try it ... we've got nothing else." And hospitals used it, despite the many reports from ultra-conservative outlets that it was not being used. As one of my frontline friends reported, it is good in treating cytokine storm.

Studies seem to say that if HCQ is effective, it's best used near the beginning of the sickness, and seems to have practically no benefit at all in the later stages.

Dr. Immanuel above reports that HCQ has been failing because doctors haven't been using it correctly -- that it has to be used early and in combination with zinc and azithromycin. But her claim (that doctors haven't been doing it) can't be further from the truth ... tens of thousands of doctors and scientists have tried all kinds of combinations of HCQ and other drugs. The idea of using it with zinc has been around for years. Some doctors had already done "as prescribed" since March, but not with as much success. When used in practice, doctors have reported disappointing results ... it helps, but not that much.

As of the end of June, the FDA has retracted the emergency use for COVID, citing that the benefits just don't outweigh the potential for side effects (heart and vision problems).

Budesonide (BUD): A Dr. Bartlett (also from Texas) has become famous for touting an asthma inhaler medicine as a cure for COVID19. On the surface it makes sense. The medicine opens up the lungs, and as a corticosteroid, may help fight against the virus.

Unlike HCQ, it has fewer long-lasting side-effects, so it's safer to use.

Dr. Bartlett claims that one of his clinics had 200 patients that tested positive and a 100% survival rate thanks to the BUD treatment. Sound familiar? Though, unlike Dr. Immanuel, this doctor is willing to share his results here. But just like before, the same problems arise: is he really following all 200 patients, and wouldn't most of them be mild cases anyway?

But ... oh, check out this report. One of his patients ended up in the hospital anyway ... it didn't work for him.

This study from May seems to say BUD neither helps nor harms COVID19 patients -- maybe it doesn't work so well in later stages of the disease. It also appears that the UK and Australian researchers are currently conducting studies in using BUD as an early treatment (as Dr. Bartlett prescribes).

As far as science is concerned, it's still premature to call this a silver bullet, but at least it's considerably safe to use. We'll have to watch this treatment more closely. I do not believe any restrictions are in place ... with the main concern (if any) being that if too many people use it, it could possibly result in a BUD shortage. Right now, I don't see any evidence that hospitals are using this treatment.

Dexamethasone (DEX): This is another corticosteroid with many uses and safer side effects if used for a short time. Long time use (like most corticosteroids) can have adverse effects and dependency issues, and is not good for pregnant women. Like the two other drugs above, this one is really cheap.

UK researchers discovered that DEX is very helpful in the latest stages of the disease. The WHO seems to be very supportive of this treatment, continues to encourage studies, and is looking to increase worldwide production. Hospitals in the US are already using this treatment, as advised by the NIH, but mostly for use in the later stages.

It still seems too early to get results from the hospitals as to the success of this treatment, but consider this: As part of the HCQ conspiracy theories floating about, one of the claims is that hospitals are preferring to use expensive treatments like Remdesivir, so as to help out their friends in Big Pharma. But this rising popularity in using cheaper drugs like DEX seems to spit on this idea.

In either case, I would not consider this a miracle cure, as it only seems to save the lives of one-third of severe cases. It's very impressive, but still allows for many deaths. Out of the three we've looked at so far, this seems to be the most promising. We need something better!

Remdesivir (REM): Now comes probably the most expensive drug for COVID19. This one costs about $2,500 for a 5-day supply. It's also in very short supply, so in the US it's reserved for only the most severe patients.

Side effects seem to include respiratory failure, blood disorders, and other fun ailments.

Its effectiveness is still under question. In April and May, it was thought that its benefits outweighed the risks. One study in May seemed to indicate it sped up hospitalization recoveries by four days. However, while REM seems to speed up recovery, DEX seems to be possibly better at saving lives.

I can't seem to find good data on whether hospitals prefer DEX or REM, but DEX is definitely much more affordable and available. Note that in both cases, these drugs aren't typically used until the end stages ... so if you are to benefit, you still have to go through a lot of pain to get that far. (So still sounding like sucky miracle cures.)

Antibody-Infused Blood Transfusions (also called convalescent plasma): This is another idea that's been floating around for months, though I have yet to see much traction. Though, I'm pleased to hear that it's been tried already 50,000 times. The idea is that the antibodies in plasma donated by people who have already recovered from COVID19 can help other people fight the disease more quickly.

Yesterday, as the article in the link above tells, President Trump is encouraging more people to donate plasma for this effort. Studies so far are inconclusive, but surely it's got to help to some degree. It'll be interesting to see if the press mocks Trump and if this method becomes a panacea. But you know what ... I don't think so, because HCQ really only became a panacea because of its poor performance. Also considering this is a Washington Post article actually showing Trump in a positive light, there may still be hope for the press.

T Cells: A friend of mine shared this very interesting article on T Cells, which are another form of immunity our bodies employ. Unlike antibodies that form to attack specific viruses and can die out quickly, T Cells can remember the protein surfaces of viruses for a much longer time. And it's possible that many of us already have a whole bunch of T Cells already primed to fight from earlier exposure to cold coronaviruses with similar protein surfaces.

It's very possible that a successful vaccine or even a cure can arise from T Cells instead of from antibodies. If any of these become a miracle cure, I'd say this one has the most promising prospects, but we still have a long ways to go to even understand what's going on.

Vaccine: we still have no vaccine, but US officials keep saying we may have one by the end of the year. There also seem to be different vaccines in the making. It'll be interesting to see what comes of it all. Which ones will be safe? Which ones will have microchips (just kidding!)? Which ones will be effective, and for how long?

Up to now, we still have no miracle cure, but we do have a whole slate of drugs to choose from. HCQ appears to be the least effective ... period. DEX is the most immediately promising cheap drug for late-stage life saving. BUD may ultimately prove to be effective in the very early stages. Plasma transfusions may start to show effectiveness. REM is very expensive and is starting to look not that great. T Cells may ultimately provide us with a miracle cure (not just for COVID19, but other viruses as well -- yeah, this is just me thinking this up -- I see some potential).

But wait ... there is one more miracle cure that has actually proven to work in many countries, especially in the highly successful countries of South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, and several others ... a cure so effective that it has practically eradicated most of the virus inside of their borders.

And this cure is called ...

DON'T CATCH IT.

That's right ... with the trifecta of Masks, Effective Contact Tracing, and Testing, we can effectively destroy this virus ... even without the need of further lockdowns, and without the need of waiting further for other miracle cures.

Flat Earthers and the Coronavirus

And one more cross-post so all coronavirus posts will appear here ...

It's hard to believe that some people still believe in a flat Earth. There's even a Flat Earth Society where you can keep abreast of the newest developments.

It may sound crazy, but Flat Earthers provide several compelling arguments. According to Einstein, gravity is indistinguishable from acceleration. Imagine two different scenarios:

#1) Earth is a sphere large enough to have its own gravity. Someone standing on Earth's surface will feel a constant downward acceleration (what we call gravity). If you drop a ball, it will start falling slowly, but then quickly build up downward speed until it hits the ground.

#2) Earth is a flat surface, constantly accelerating upwards. If you're standing on this surface and drop a ball, it will first appear to hover over the ground, but then the upward accelerating ground beneath it will speed up and catch up to it.

In both situations, when you perform an experiment (dropping the ball), it looks exactly the same. So, how can you tell the difference? According to Einstein, you can't tell which is which just from the experiment itself.

So ... crap? Could Earth really be flat?

If you visit the FES site, you can get educated on how everything works ... they have an explanation for everything. From the picture above, you can see the flat Earth, with the North Pole in the center, and then the impenetrable ice shelves of the Antarctic at the border, helping to keep all the oceans' water from falling into the abyss below us.

Also note the sun floating above our world. This picture doesn't show it well, but the sun is like a lamp with a shade to help it shine down on different parts of the world depending on the time of day. The moon also orbits above our world ... in the current picture, its location would provide a full moon phase at night. As it moves to a different position in relation to the sun, you get all the other different phases.

They even have explanations as to why the sun sets ... it's an illusion due to the refraction of light as the lampshade starts turning away. Solar and lunar eclipses? There are complex explanations for those as well.

So how can we tell if Earth is really a sphere? Why should we believe the images that NASA provides to us? How do we know that they're not keeping us in the dark, and keeping us from the truth?

Hopefully I haven't convinced you that Flat Earth Theory (FET) is true, but I think it very important to demonstrate how much work people are putting into this, and how easy it is to justify it with the visage of science and math. In fact, I've tried myself to construct a flat-earth model that works consistently with our observations, just to see if it could be done. I still haven't quite managed it, though -- something always comes up to break it.

For example, if you look at the picture above, the "Southern Hemisphere" is stretched out much further than the inside "Northern Hemisphere." This would imply that planes flying in the Southern Hemisphere would take much longer to get to their destinations than planes in the Northern Hemisphere. This one issue by itself destroys FET and convinces me that our Earth is round.

But, one who is not so rehearsed on math, science, and correct principles, may easily be swayed by these intelligent-sounding arguments.

A famous rapper, BoB, tells us he's been in a plane high in the sky and didn't see any curvature, and he has recently tried to raise money to launch a satellite into space to prove it. Also, daredevil Mike Hughes started building rockets for the purpose of eventually launching himself into space high enough to see for himself if the world was flat. He ended up dying earlier this year in a failed rocket launch.

Enter the idea of "settled science," a term you've probably heard several times in the past few weeks. From a strict interpretation of the scientific method, it's nearly impossible to have "settled science," as science promotes the idea of skepticism. You start with what most people believe (a null hypothesis), you present a challenge -- an alternative theory (the alternative hypothesis), and then you perform tests to see which hypothesis wins.

Probably the most famous example of this is Newton's laws of motion and gravity, which made sense until Einstein came around to present his own laws, which did a much better job of explaining everything ... and it was revolutionary. Einstein's alternative theory won out. Newton's strongly held "settled science" theory was overthrown! (Sort of.)

Since we can't have 100% certainty on anything, we must settle for "settled science" to mean "we're 99.9% sure this is right." There's nothing wrong with challenging even the most stalwart theories, but in order to get things done, scientists and engineers need to accept what's close enough to reality for practical purposes. Thus, experts tend to hold to the stalwart theories and follow them until something better comes around.

Back to Flat Earth ... so what do you think? Is the Earth a sphere? Is it settled science? The number of people who believe FET is very small. Though, there are still some otherwise competent mathematicians and scientists trying to challenge the notion of Round Earth. We find it easy to laugh at these guys because it's just a very, very small following. We can all pat ourselves on the back because we know better.

Then, there's something called "Occam's Razor." It's the idea that if you have two competing theories to explain the same phenomenon, chances are, the most simplest explanation is the true one. When it comes to FET, I might be able to successfully create an isomorphism from Round Earth to Flat Earth Theory -- it would require a very complex set of equations and rules, such that it would be much easier to accept Round Earth Theory, as its equations are simpler, and it just "makes sense." This is the power of Occam's Razor.

In fact, everyone who does anything related to world travel uses Round Earth Theory. Planes tend to travel in Great Circles around the world, because that's proven to be the shortest distance (rather than a straight line). Satellites are placed in orbit around our planet using Round Earth Theory equations. Otherwise, our satellite TV wouldn't work, and neither would all of our GPS devices.

So, the Flat Earthers can believe what they want, but the people doing the navigating are all using Round Earth Theory -- without even giving it a second thought. Why should they care about competing FET ideas when Round Earth Theory works perfectly fine?

And finally, from the start of this post, you already know where I'm headed with all of this -- the recent pandemic.

When it comes down to it, pandemics are really simple math. The SIR Model explains the movement of a disease through a Susceptible population. As each person gets Infected, they will eventually Recover (or die), and eventually one of two scenarios play out: #1) the disease dies out, infecting only a portion of the population -- with some people reaching the Recover/Death stage, and the rest remaining indefinitely in the Susceptible stage. OR #2) the disease infects everyone until everyone reaches the Recover/Death stage.

This model along with other competing models rely on a set of underlying simple differential equations, and we have a long history of outbreaks to study, and fine tune our models.

The current coronavirus outbreak (SARS-CoV-2) is not unlike many of these other past outbreaks. In fact, some mathematicians have expressed wonder at how closely the spread of the disease matches popular epidemiology models. (Though, there are some local off-ages as this particular strain exhibits a "superspreader" nature -- where it seems to spread in chunks rather than in smooth patterns like the flu.)

From earlier, similar outbreaks, epidemiologists have determined what tactics and strategies work in combating viruses. In the case of respiratory diseases ... universal mask wearing works very well. We have not only seen this in earlier outbreaks, but we've even seen it already in the current SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Countries that are used to outbreaks put on their masks with hardly a second thought, and have already effectively eradicated the virus -- except for onesies/twosies coming mainly from foreigners. And countries who later adopt mask wearing enjoy a sudden drop in cases after a couple of weeks of consistent habits.

In a sense, this is all pretty much settled science. Or at least, prior to 2020, there had already existed plenty of experience to support these ideas. And much of what I know on outbreaks I had learned prior to 2020. You can't really learn basic modeling of data without having some exposure to exponential, S-curve, and other distributions that describe outbreaks. In fact, one of my textbooks was on how to truncate data effectively, geared more toward medical applications.

I suppose a little bit of inconsistent mishandling of the pandemic by the WHO and a lack of direct experience in the US has led to our current situation where most people don't seem to know how to behave in such a way to effectively fight the virus and eradicate it (as many other countries have already successfully done). And perhaps it's the whole idea of "free thought" in the US that has given credence to competing theories.

Unlike FET, where a very small people believe the very few skeptics, we have a situation where a very large number of people believe the very few skeptics ... and most frustratingly, it has become yet another highly charged politicized topic -- which has unfortunately led to too many unnecessary deaths.

To me, the solutions are very simple ... we could have eradicated this thing months ago, and avoided a nationwide shutdown. But we were lazy and we let it get out of hand. In April, our lockdowns helped us to get a handle on things -- numbers were going down, but then we thought it was safe to reopen everything, and we didn't do so safely. So (as what exactly happened in 1918-1920), cases in the US have blown up to levels not seen anywhere else in the world.

Instead of taking simple measures to win, we're flooded by crazy conspiracy theories ... the Democrats are trying to nuke Trump's reelection chances ... Bill Gates is trying to sneak in microchips in the upcoming vaccine ... masks are activating COVID that's been around for at least a decade ... hospitals are lying about the deaths and attributing them all to COVID, and so on.

There really is no difference between FET and these pandemic conspiracy theories, and I'm not sure what I can do about it. I can only watch in disbelief, and hope for the best. How can someone really ignore what is going on outside of our borders?

Despite the fact that these conspiracy theories are enjoyed by a large chunk of people, the theories are still worthy of ridicule and scorn. Unfortunately, this is very difficult to pull off on social media, because your friends are likely to take it personally. I always try to attack the ideas and not the people, but peeps today are very fragile. My goal is to help people understand so they can behave in such a way to help fight the virus ... together. But that's not how they take it.

Most people are being manipulated by forces intent on dividing our nation and to increase the spread of the virus -- encouraging "not settled science" as their battlecry, and "1st Amendment" / "freedoms" (without realizing that wearing masks is a means to enjoy more freedoms), and "you can't stop this virus -- no one can" (even though so many countries have demonstrably done so), and so much quoting of bad science studies.

I wish you all well, and be smart! Listen to the experts because they've been doing this for years. Ignorance can only kill, and intelligence is the only way to win. My hope is that if you can see the silliness of FET and understand how some people come to believe in it, then you may also be able to see the exact same things in COVID conspiracy theories today.

Coronavirus Newsletter 2020-07-25

Source: CDC

In today's newsletter: Introductions / Personal Update / Excess Death Tool / Conspiracy Entrenchers / Trump Update / Hotspots

Introductions
Over the past couple of months, I've been maintaining a weekly coronavirus newsletter, however I got tired of the Facebook interface and its boring lack of pictures. I decided to move it to my writing blog this past week. But then later decided, it belongs here on my Economics/Politics blog. So, here we are ... a quick cross-post from my writing blog, and this will be the final location of future coronavirus newsletters.

For those of you following this blog -- you can see prior coronavirus newsletters with this Facebook search string I've put together.

Why do I do this? Because I'm concerned. I don't think the general public is sufficiently informed on all matters coronavirus, and I believe that if we all fully understood what was going on, we'd all know how to work together to fight this virus and end it for good.

I'm an actuary (associate), a modeler, a mathematician, a programmer, a logistician, a process improver, and a staunch follower of science. Part of my learning included how to handle medical related data, so even though I'm not an epidemiologist, I feel that I can offer a unique perspective on this outbreak, and explain things in a way that you may understand.

Personal Update
In earlier newsletters, I've mentioned that over the past month and a half I've been experiencing COVID-19 related symptoms off and on -- except no fever, and no loss of taste (though there is sometimes a funny taste). I got tested back in June and received a NEGATIVE result. And I got tested again last week at my doctor's request. After five days, I got back another NEGATIVE result. Both of these tests appear to be the same "emergency" or "quick" test and not the official FDA-approved test, though I'm not sure what the difference is.

I'm still frustrated because I don't know my current situation. I highly suspect I caught the virus in late May or early June, waited too long to get tested and had already fought the virus, and now may be fighting the remains ... randomly stored RNA fragments able to re-trigger symptoms.

Or it could a simple bronchitis infection. Either way, I'm having difficulty getting in to see a doctor, and I'm giving up because it's just not that bad. It's not worth the headache, and I'll revisit if I ever get a fever. Though, I do plan on getting an antibody test shortly.

I'm not happy about having to wait five days for the results this last time, and I hear some people are waiting for weeks for results. This tells me that we've reached our capacity of testing again, and as "actual" cases continue to rise, we won't see them in the official counts, because we can't keep up. And how can we effectively fight what we can't measure?

Excess Death Tool
I'm often asked: why do people care so much about COVID-19 deaths? Why don't people get upset with influenza deaths? Aren't these people dying from secondary conditions and not really from COVID-19? How can we trust the official numbers when hospitals are mis-categorizing unrelated deaths as COVID-19? Or how can we trust hospital counts when they have incentives to pad COVID-19 hospitalization/death counts?

For me, excess death statistics provide the answer to all these questions. Excess deaths = "Total actual deaths from all causes" minus "Total expected average deaths from all causes." What's nice about this metric is that it is very difficult to manipulate. It doesn't matter if a death is categorized as COVID-19 or as a heart-attack, because all deaths are the same. Then you can look at the big picture and ask "did a significant event occur at this time?"

In the graph at the top of this post, I've grabbed a screen shot from the CDC's US excess death tool for the City of New York. The blue bars show weekly total number of deaths from all causes for NYC for 2017 through today. The orange curve is an expected death threshold -- if the blue bars cross the orange line, deaths are noticeably higher than usual and an event is said to have occurred. These are marked with red plus signs above each breach of the threshold.

Note one breach happens the first month of 2018. This was a noticeably bad flu season for NYC -- and possibly some extra deaths due to a blizzard. It looks like a small bump, but it was enough to stress the hospital system.

And then look at 2020. Starting at the end of March, there is a very large breach -- a ridiculously high number of deaths not seen in NYC in decades. Not even the WTC attacks in 2001 had this many excess deaths. And the Swine Flu of 2009 showed practically no excess at all in NYC. (You can see 2001 and 2009 in the graph from this NY Times article.)

So, what can we say about the current COVID-19 pandemic? Is it "real"? Should we be concerned with so many deaths happening at the same time? Would it be good to continue trying to avoid further deaths?

I'll try to embed the tool here, but I'm not sure how successful it'll be on your device. Should it fail, just click on the picture at the very top of this post and it'll take you to the CDC Excess Death page. With this tool, you can select any state and a couple of selected cities, and see what kind of excess deaths have been happening. My home state of Georgia has a pretty sizable excess. My current state of North Carolina -- not so much. Utah -- hardly much at all except for the last couple of weeks. Arizona and Texas -- they were doing well except for the last month or two.

Conspiracy Entrenchers
Yet still, the conspiracies continue even today. I wrote about this a couple of days ago. Usually, I think these conspiracies are cute and easy to ignore, but unfortunately, this time it's leading many people to behave contrary to what needs to happen to eradicate the virus. This time believing the conspiracies is dangerous not only to the believers, but also everyone else ... not just the deaths, but also the destruction of jobs and the weakening of our economy.

More and more, I've witnessed many people, including friends, entrenching themselves in these dangerous beliefs. And over this past week or so, I've noticed an uptick of sincere pleas from these entrenchers, expressing a desire to be able to express their increasingly unpopular beliefs, to exercise their First Amendment rights, and to be respected instead of ridiculed. "Who is to say your science is better than my science?"

After a quick experiment, I was able to determine that these entrenchers' plea for respect seems to go only one way. They want respect for their ideas while maintaining the right to ridicule other people and their seemingly errant thoughts ... absolutely no attempt at all to try and understand opposing points of view.

And they all seem to agree on one thing: "I am never ever going to wear a mask." And so much anger. I'm sure you've seen videos of people attacking mask displays in the store and even other people wearing masks.

And I wonder ... how do people get like this? How can so many people turn against simple science and math, and simple strategies that have already helped several countries to nearly eradicate this virus?

I know a lot of it is Trump's fault and his lack of clear leadership ... sending mixed messages to the public, confusing even the knowledgable, and helping to create a perfect environment for conspiracy theories to thrive.

I also know that foreign actors are using our social media to feed us AI-generated posts scientifically engineered to maximize the division of our nation over this past decade. This is not just my own conspiracy theory, but rather a very well-documented development (of which I'll dedicate a post at a later time).

Also, ultra-conservative and ultra-liberal news sources have both contributed to this entrenchment, and I'm growing increasingly tired of watching all this intentional division.

We, the people, lose. I know a lot of these entrenchers personally, and they're all good people. I don't want to lose friends over this. As always, my goal is to get people to work together to fight this virus.

I've learned the hard way that shaming and pointing out logical errors is not the best way to convince these people to see the light ... rather, it seems to push them further into entrenchment.

When I'm diplomatic, my "contrary" friends and family react positively. They come to learn things from me, and I come to learn things from them (I've even included some of their ideas in these newsletters), and we all come out on the other end feeling more informed on the virus. I've watched several of these friends come to the point of: "Okay -- I'll put on a stupid mask, but I'm not going to like it."

But recently, I feel increasingly that we're running out of time and it's becoming more difficult to be diplomatic ... it feels so slow a process. Still, non-diplomatic solutions don't work -- so we must do our best not to shame others, and we should keep up the mutual respect, while not fearing to remind them to respect our ideas in return.

Trump Update
Which brings me to a very important message to my liberal friends. I know that Trump has been very disappointing in his leadership as per COVID-19. But back in April, he was really trying. After a couple of months of downplaying the epidemic, he helped to encourage lockdowns, and to help us through a most difficult time. But the liberal-leaning actors continued to ridicule Trump.

Right about the time Trump was ridiculed for suggesting using irradiation and injecting detergents to fight the virus, he stopped his daily briefings. He stopped talking to Fauci, and he went right back to downplaying the virus, and pushing for everything to open back up, which in hindsight was a disaster.

However, as of a couple of days ago, Trump has started his briefings again, and has told us we need to do the patriotic thing and put on our masks. Difficult times are coming again.

And please, please, please, please ... I beg of you ... we need to reinforce Trump when he's doing the right thing. We don't want Trump to revert to downplay mode, and if that happens, I'll guarantee you that his base will continue to refuse to wear masks, and deaths will continue to rise.

It's okay to pat Trump on the back and reinforce his good decisions ... then he'll see that he's finally doing a good job, and he'll continue ... and then perhaps his base will be convinced in time so that we can all finally get on the same page and fight this virus together.

If the Democrats can take the higher road, set aside politics, and work with Trump on this, I think we could have a chance at succeeding. If we instead wait four months for a hopeful changing of the guard, it could likely be too late to stop what's coming next.

Hotspots
And finally, to end ... I'd like to report that the New York Times has finally updated their hotspot map coloring scheme to now show the highest rates of new cases per capita, so now it's much easier to see where the bad spots are. And they appear to still be mainly in the South. Louisiana looks pretty bad now, and practically the whole coast of the Gulf. South Carolina is still pretty bad, and North Carolina has medium growth. California, Arizona, Idaho, Washington still look to have some strong hotspots going.

You can click the picture below to see the whole New York Times dashboard.

Thanks for reading ... and stay safe!

Trump -- Midterm Report

A couple of years ago, I made predictions of Trump's first term. Now that it's more than halfway over, how did I do?

Has it been interesting so far? Check.

LGBT concerns: I think Trump is tracking pretty much as predicted. He hasn't gone after gay marriage, but has indeed pushed for religion freedoms for those who disagree. He did make some questionable calls, such as banning trans-people from serving in the military.

Obamacare: Trump and friends failed to repeal and replace this legislation. Evidently the Republicans were unable to agree on a replacement. Though, the mandate penalty (my biggest complaint of the law) is now officially lowered to $0. As an actuary, I wonder what this means long-term, as without a replacement, this could spell disaster. Health costs are still high, and the insurers are still a pain to work with.

Immigration: Trump has indeed kept many of his promises. He's finally started working on his wall. I was a little happy to see an increase in enforcement, but at the same time I'm deeply saddened by some of the policies that he's adopted that are frankly inhumane. Potential asylum seekers are placed in prison-like conditions and are sometimes separated from their children (some of whom are still not reunited). People are dying while reaching out to our country for safety, only to be rejected because of blanket asylum policies aimed specifically at Central American countries. Many who try to come legally through the gate are met with months of runaround until they can no longer wait, and they ultimately decide to cross illegally in desperation. Trump has created a mess, and to fix it he sends troops and construction workers instead of social workers to help handle the load. There has to be a better way to handle this.

H1-B visas: Yes, he's cracking down on these. I fear for my foreign friends whom I may not see anymore.

Muslims: Surprisingly, Trump has laid off big time in this area. He did try one travel ban that included a religious test, which was rightfully contested by the judicial branch. But then Trump removed the religious test, and the revised travel ban was allowed. Though Trump is mostly leaving Muslims alone, he's still indirectly pushing "religious freedoms" when he really means "Christian (and Jewish) freedoms."

Black people: I still hold that he is not racist toward black people. It's just not there. He continues to say stupid things that sound racist, but really aren't. It's so easy to take things out of context. Though, I do think that he really is racist toward Mexicans (see above).

Trump as Hitler: He's nowhere close. There are no concentration camps (the detention centers at the border are not concentration camps). No thought police. Before, I said his ignorance would bring on a disaster, and so far that hasn't happened.

Fake news: I'm still appalled at Trump's continual attempts to discredit news outlets. However, I've come to learn that he is not "silencing" them ... just helping them to look stupid. I've also watched the quality of CNN and other liberal-leaning outlets drop like a rock in response. Now everyone seems to be as bad as Fox News.

Federal Reserve: Yes ... he's trying to tell them what to do, but at least he's not taking any measures to undermine this intentionally-independent organization.

Corporations: I'm very happy about the tax cuts, but am disappointed that it wasn't balanced out by raising capital gains taxes and reduced spending in Congress. Our deficit is growing at a rate faster than it had on average during Obama's 2nd term. Still, the markets are high and there are more jobs.

Foreign concerns: I'm sure Russia loves Trump to death, because everything he's done has helped them to become stronger -- not because of any collusion, but because of his ignorance and his susceptibility of being manipulated by Putin. Even our recent withdrawal in Syria has allowed Russia to strengthen their position.

National unity: Much to my disappointment, Trump has done everything in his power to increase the divide between conservatives and liberals. His tweets, name-calling, attacks on news outlets, and silly distractions have done nothing but galvanized his base and pushed liberals more into the unconstitutional "Resist" movement. We are truly in a sad state, and I see no way out of it. I, personally, would love to see Trump removed from office so we could have someone more sensible like Pence to help bring us back together. All of the Democrats running for office seem to me to be just as bad, and more than ready to push dangerous agendas just to galvanize their own bases. Can we really not have a good moderate president that won't divide us further?

Summary: Trump has accomplished a few things that makes me excited, but has also been a great embarrassment to the conservative cause and to our country overall. I no longer feel like he's going to lead us into a disaster, but I really wish I could trust him. I wish I could see him as being "presidential." I wish he could grow up and actually start leading ALL of us and help us to be proud to be American again.

Goals for 2019

I'll be honest ... I'm not exactly sure what to do in this blog. I had created it as a place for me to talk about economic and political concerns (rather than in my writing or music blogs). I also don't have very big plans over here in the near future as I work on other aspects in my life. Not to mention that my day job basically centers around these concerns every day, and it's not often that I feel like spending more time on this outside of work.

Yet, I still have a lot to say. It just takes a lot of energy to write these posts, and then there's the time afterwards dealing with the reactions, which are usually heated. Thus, when I do post here, it's usually on a topic that I believe deserves attention.

Since I'm still very concerned about the current state of our nation and also because I've rebooted my writing habits, I expect that I will write several posts here this year.

Thus I'll go ahead and make this goal: I will write at least 5 posts here this year.

Topics I'm considering:

• How to combat Russian bots -- there's a simple solution if we're willing to do it.
• A mid-term update on my thoughts about Trump's performance.
• A deep dive analysis on revenue and expenses of the nation -- I'm tired of relying on biased people telling us what's going on.
• Further ideas on how to save our nation from its current highly-charged situation.

I hope we all survive the upcoming year!

Flake's Example Could Save Our Country

Part of me has been excited to watch the Kavanaugh hearings over the past few weeks. It's not every day that politics becomes ... well ... exciting. But at the same time, I've found myself mortified at the whole circus, thanks to actions and attitudes from both sides of the aisle, and on top of that, the irresponsible biased and subjective reporting from practically all media sources.

And then in the midst of it all came a breath of fresh air: Arizona Senator Flake.

While the whole sexual assault allegations played out, both sides of the aisle did despicable things.

Republicans (especially the media) worked hard to discredit Ford and paint her as a liberal liar -- accusing her of taking payment from the Democrats, being coached on how to perform, and how to make demands -- all for the purpose of delaying. Republicans also tried to ignore the allegations (thinking they already had the votes) and refused to request another FBI investigation, which in hindsight could have avoided some of the circus.

Democrats (especially the media -- even a few historically neutrally biased outlets) decided to go ahead and presume Kavanaugh guilty when there was insufficient evidence to support such a verdict. They knew all they had to do was to speak as if Kavanaugh had actually done everything all accusers said, and the liberal base would accept it as fact.

And then the worst part about the whole thing -- we, the civilians. None of us have any influence or power to help decide the outcome of the confirmation process, but yet we just can't keep silent. We must go to Facebook and promulgate memes that represent what we think we believe. Some of us go even further and take action. Some take to peaceful protests, while others follow more intrusive paths. Some even resort to death threats.

Death threats? Really? Where in the Constitution does it say it's okay for us to threaten our selected agents into acting the way we want them to?

Then came the Thursday testimony of Ford. At the very beginning with Grassley's opening statement, it was clear that the senators were going to take every opportunity to grandstand, complain about their opponents, and in general, campaign for their next elections. During the eight or so hours that transpired, very little of the time was devoted to the actual purpose of the hearing -- determining whether or not Kavanaugh assaulted Ford.

Now, the questions asked by Ms. Mitchell were pretty good and professional. I thought it funny that people attacked those questions, as what else was the purpose of the hearing -- to give Ford pats on the back for four hours? Or was it to obtain useful information?

Every now and then a senator would ask a good question. It was Democrat Senator Durbin who helped me to understand why an FBI investigation was needed. He asked Kavanaugh: Do you want to clear your name? Then you should request an FBI investigation.

But I'll admit it. Like most everyone else, I was caught up in the moment. I had chosen my side and had readily internalized the rhetoric I was supposed to believe. The investigations done by the senators and their staff were sufficient, and no FBI investigation was needed.

However, something inside of me kept saying: "Just go ahead and do it. Get it over with, and then we would all have more professional and independent investigation results."

I could also easily see the deep division among all the players. The Republicans in the sub-committee all stuck with the "let's push this thing through as fast as we can" rhetoric, and ultimately all voted for Kavanaugh. All the Democrats stuck with "let's delay this and get an FBI investigation" and ultimately all voted against Kavanaugh.

And you should have heard all the comments I heard at work as I watched a portion of the proceedings in the break room. The US citizen coworkers had a lot to say, and it was all opinionated. Every now and then one would realize the other person was on an opposing side, and whoever felt in the minority at the time would choose to leave the room.

The more foreign coworkers commented more on how silly and worked up we were getting over the whole thing. A couple of them remarked it was more fun to watch us Americans rather than the proceedings on TV.

It's all evidence that we have become a deeply divided nation, dangerously on our way toward a strange type of domestic civil war.

With all of this in mind, I strongly suggest viewing these statements made by Senator Flake a day before the Thursday Ford hearings. He talks about the divide and about what he hoped would be accomplished in the hearing. While listening to his words, it's easy to become saddened to see what we have all become.



And then we all know what happened this past Friday. Flake reached out to the Democrats and made a deal. He would help trigger a one-week long FBI investigation.

I am personally happy with this outcome, as one of two things will happen. #1) The FBI will find something credible and Kavanaugh's nomination will fail. Or #2) The FBI will find nothing, and will help to legitimize Kavanaugh as a valid Supreme Court judge. It would be more fair to all parties involved, and would help to lock in the appropriate plan of action, given more information.

A lot of my conservative friends are calling Flake a traitor, or even a "flake." But the way I see it, he is a hero who represents the attitude we must all strive to maintain. Other than Flake, can you name even one Republican who listens to the Democrats? And can you name even one Democrat who listens to the Republicans? Did a single Republican vote against Kavanaugh, and did a single Democrat vote for him? No -- everyone else voted along party lines -- doing the best to ensure they got to keep their job at their next election.

Flake stands alone as someone willing to reach across the aisle. Note that he's not fully "defecting" to the Democrats. He still leans toward believing the innocence of Kavanaugh. All he's doing is saying it would be prudent to have an FBI hearing just to make doubly sure, and I can't argue that there's anything wrong with it -- especially when it will help to remove doubt.

We, too, can follow Flake's example. Once we realize that we're all being manipulated by carefully crafted memes and biased news articles, we can learn to be more like human beings and think on our own. We can learn to truly listen to our opponents and hear what they have to say. We can come up with compromises, and often even come up with solutions that benefit both parties.

And most importantly -- we can learn to stop hating each other. We can learn how to not de-friend people just because of disagreements. We can learn to work together and solve problems more effectively. We can be human beings that respect each other.

It's happened before, and it can happen again.

How To Handle Anthem Protesters

One thing can be said about the Chinese: they certainly know how to stand up for their anthem. Did you know that in some parts, one can be imprisoned for up to 15 days for refusing to stand? But then again, would you expect anything less from a communist country?

What I love about the United States are the freedoms that we all enjoy. On the most part we are free to do whatever we wish to do, and nobody can force us to do anything against our will. Or at least, that is the standard that we should all strive to achieve.

But wait! What was it a prominent US politician said last week concerning our national anthem?

"The NFL has decided that it will not force players to stand for the playing of our National Anthem. Total disrespect for our great country!"

What kind of country would we be that claims to espouse freedoms, and then compel everyone to stand for the playing of the national anthem? Can you see the irony in such a concept? Shouldn't we be better than communist nations that force an artificial and contradictory nationalism on their people?

I know -- I know. I can't stand the likes of Kaepernick who misuse our beloved symbols in their misguided protests based on fuzzy statistics. But I also cannot be the one to throw a stone and compel them to comply with the rest of us, as what would that make me?

I also ask you to reconsider your positions on this matter. I know that a majority of you are offended by the actions of several football players, but if you truly value our freedoms, can you be that person to throw the stone of compulsion? Is that the type of patriot you really want to be?

It's bad enough that those in high positions in our government are pushing this issue -- urging the NFL to force their players to stand and going so far as to threaten their tax status. Even today, it was said: "Two dozen NFL players continue to kneel during the National Anthem, showing total disrespect to our Flag & Country. No leadership in NFL!"

It's bad enough that the press kindles the fires and keeps this whole thing going for ratings and distracting us from real news.

We don't really need to add to this mess, ourselves. Can we really be that upset about 24 players who won't stand up for the anthem? How could it possibly hurt us? Out of millions of patriotic Americans, this 24 is hardly even a blip. What do we get out of yelling for their coercion? A false sense of patriotic self-righteousness?

Rather, all this getting worked up is unproductive -- especially when there are much bigger issues to worry about.

I have an idea. Let this story die. During the anthem, the cameraman can focus on the other 99.9% of people who are standing. Why should we give Kaepernick any attention? It all went away last year (even when he continued his protests), and it can go away again.

We can get on with life, get back to watching football, and celebrate the fact that we live in the land of the free, and the home of the brave.

Global Warming: Bill Nye vs. Neil deGrasse Tyson

Let's talk about global warming. A couple of nights ago I watched the first episode of Bill Nye Saves the World on Netflix, and I got annoyed.

This is what I see. I do not doubt the existence of global warming. I also do not question the idea that we humans have been contributing to rising temperatures. But, wow, people can be so annoying about it!

There's one camp that chooses to believe that global warming doesn't exist at all. This tends to include conservatives who are really more concerned with the costs of cutting pollution than anything else. These people rely on obscure reports to support their beliefs (such as one or two years of increasing ice in the arctic), while at the same time ignoring tens if not hundreds of more reports to the contrary (such as decades of decreasing ice in the arctic). It's easy to get annoyed with this camp, especially now that they may have control of our government.

There's another camp that is just as annoying: the oh-my-gosh-we're-already-too-late-to-do-anything-about-it-and-we're-all-going-to-die-and-we-should-still-turn-off-all-our-lights-at-night camp. No matter the cost, we all need to switch over to renewable energy and make corporations pay. Really?

Where is the camp that prefers to take a more reasonable and realistic approach and come up with real solutions? Fortunately for us, this camp exists, and they're already hard at work. I have full confidence that we will find the solution with plenty of time to spare -- that is if we can keep those other two camps at bay.

Enter in Neil deGrasse Tyson's Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey. I have already written a review here, but I'd like to revisit the global warming episode (#12. "The World Set Free"). Three years ago, I called it my favorite episode of the series. It's possibly the best presentation I've seen on global warming. Despite how much Tyson like to take little pot shots at religionists, this one episode was free of that, free of politics, and it simply presented the facts. It even demonstrated what's already being done, and what can be further done to effectively counter global warming at a relatively low price.

In other words, I strongly recommend that you catch it (still on Netflix right now).

And now I come to Bill Nye's version. Let me save you time, and recommend that you skip it -- that is unless you want to see what irritates me so much about the ultra-save-the-planet camp.

Bill did present a couple of ideas supporting global warming. Heating water in an experiment caused it to rise (barely). He presented one (count on my hand here -- one) example of water rising in Venice. He did explain on a really high level about how carbon gases (rhymes with glasses) traps heat, ... and that was about it. Nowhere near enough facts to convince anyone.

He spent the rest of the time whining and complaining about "deniers." He even spent a full minute (in the "Bill Takes a Minute" segment) giving a really heated rant about how stupid people are for ignoring all this stuff, and then when the minute was up, he caught his breath and said, "I feel better now." At the very end of the episode, he had everyone in the audience chanting, "I'm tired of talking about global warming, and I'm not going to stop until everyone listens!" Bill is tired that no one is doing anything about it!

Now, let me tell you how unproductive this episode was. Getting angry never convinces anyone except for those who already believe what you're trying to say. Bill's cute rants is nothing more than a variation on "preaching to the choir."

If anything, this presentation is likely to do more harm than good. Think about it. If you were to present something with very little facts, and then rant like a lunatic and call everyone "deniers" if they don't listen, how would you expect to be received? Yeah, people would tend to believe anything other than what's coming out of your mouth.

Most of all, I take offense at Bill Nye's claim that nobody is doing anything about it. That's just a bunch of crock. What planet is he not living on? How can he deny evidence to the contrary? Come on, Bill! Open your eyes and see what's going on in the good old USA.

On my last road trip out west last August, I passed by many wind farms that weren't there a couple of decades ago. More and more people are turning to power their homes with solar energy, and are choosing to buy fuel-efficient cars. People are experimenting with solar-cell roads and sidewalks that can gather energy over a large area while providing electricity, warmth, and even light.

Conservatives that we would expect to be greedy fuel consumers turn out to be green powerhouses, such as George W. Bush's Texas nearly-self-sustaining ranch compared with Al Gore's 20-room power-sucking mansion.

If no one is doing anything, then why are carbon emissions from the USA decreasing over the past decade?

A lot of people may choose not to believe in global warming, but you know what? I think our scientists will find an answer, and there will be enough of us to implement solutions, and everything will turn out okay, and ultimately, "deniers" will wonder what all the fuss was about.

That would be a great outcome! Bill Nye may get so angry at "deniers" for being so stupid that he collapses under a tree, but Neil deGrasse Tyson would clap his hands and praise humans for prevailing in the end.

Come On, Netflix -- I Was Watching That

Dear Netflix Executives,

What are you doing? When I joined several years ago, I saw a vision: on-demand viewing -- movies, TV shows, documentaries -- anything I wanted to watch at anytime at one low price.

Of course I understand that my dream is currently unobtainable, thanks to the greed of producers and studios. The current cable model has been a boon for those types: one very expensive price for a large selection of crappy shows most people aren't interested in, just so we can catch some specific shows on Disney, HBO, or AMC.

I really thought that Netflix, or something like it, would one day present a much more attractive and larger model -- one where movie producers would be paid according to how many views they get rather than being part of a package deal.

Overall, I think so far you've done pretty well providing a large variety of shows. I also like some of your Netflix Originals, such as "Stranger Things" and the MARVEL shows.

But now you are basically giving up on FOX? Without warning, I lost "House" and "Bob's Burgers," and gosh-darn it -- I was watching those.

Then I hear you want to move toward showing 50% original content? I'm all for original shows, but you're beginning to move away from my dream. This is all translating into fewer choices for me, which translates into less value in the Netflix brand, while increasing the value in Hulu and other competitor services that dab in the licensing market.

Sure, I'm just one person out of thousands who are upset about FOX leaving Netflix. I probably won't be leaving just yet, but I would urge you to take a closer look at what your customers are watching. Are they watching Netflix originals 50% of the time? If so, then sure -- go ahead with your goal. If not, you might want to rethink holding on to the major networks.

I will also hold out for my dream. Right now, who delivers what content is in flux and is really a big mess for us consumers, but one day, I think someone will figure it all out, and then I will gladly drop all other streaming providers and pay up to $50 a month to have everything I want coming from one source.

Just think about it. Do you want to become just another network? Or do you have bigger ambitions?

Can We Get Trump to Stop Daylight Saving Time?

It's that time of year when we push our clocks ahead an hour, forcing most of the nation to wake up an hour earlier. If you're anything like me, you live to see the day when this outdated practice comes to an end.

Yes, I know many of you love Daylight Saving Time. It brings one extra hour of sunlight in the summer, and gets more people outside, and all that great stuff, but I believe it all comes at several costs that far outweigh the benefits.

More and more, people are getting fed up with the practice. Recent Rasmussen polls show that only a third of Americans believe that Daylight Saving Time is worth the hassle. Many even hit the petition sites such as Moveon.org, petitions.whitehouse.gov, or other. Yet year after year, these cries are ignored. That's why I will suggest a new approach, which just might work with our current president.

But first, why again is DST so bad? Here's a quick list of problems and issues:

• Heart attacks increase for a week after the time change in the spring. They also decrease slightly in the fall, but the net is more heart attacks overall.
• Traffic accidents increase the few days after the time change in the spring.
• It interrupts everyone's sleep cycles, contributing to sleep disorders.
• It can decrease productivity.
• It increases depression in the fall.
• It has been shown to actually increase energy costs of air conditioning and gas.
• It complicates timing issues worldwide, making international commerce a little more difficult.
• It robs an hour from farmers who can't very well make their animals and plants wake up an hour earlier so that they can beat closing time at the markets.
• And finally there's that hassle of remembering to make the change, and sometimes showing up an hour early or late. If it hasn't happened to you at least once in your life, you're not human.

Here are two fun videos that go into more detail as to why DST is such a silly idea.

So what can we do about it? How about a Twitter campaign? Think about it. I'm talking inception. Send Trump, our Tweeter in Chief, a bunch of anti-DST tweets, and after reading enough of them, he might think it's his own idea, and then perhaps he'll write us a good executive order.

I figure it's worth a shot. What have we got to lose?

This past Saturday, I sent out 10 tweets over the day, hoping that one would catch our President's eyes. I've even had some retweets. If you would like to join in the fun, check out Melorama2000 and retweet to your heart's content. Remember to look under "Tweets & replies" to see these tweets.

And if you make your own tweets, let me know and I'd be happy to retweet. Anything to catch our Twitter President's attention.

Here are the tweets that I sent, my attempt to channel Trump:

@realDonaldTrump The fake news isn't covering the heart attacks caused by Daylight Saving Time. Dishonest reporting! 

@realDonaldTrump The nation is sleep deprived. Daylight Saving Time doesn't help. Need more time in bed! Repeal DST! 

@realDonaldTrump Less than 33% like Daylight Saving Time. The majority wants stable clocks. Pick a time and stick with it! Executive order! 

@realDonaldTrump Daylight Saving Time increases depression in the fall. Repeal will decrease suicides. Stop DST! 

@realDonaldTrump Traffic accidents will increase next week because of Daylight Saving Time. Must protect our streets! Repeal DST! 

@realDonaldTrump Daylight Saving Time increases energy spending. Doesn't save money. Outrageous waste of time and effort! Stop DST! 

@realDonaldTrump Farmers hate Daylight Saving Time. Why do we do it? Time for an executive order! 

@realDonaldTrump China doesn't have Daylight Saving Time. Not even time zones. They are winning at everything! Stop DST now! 

@realDonaldTrump Daylight Saving Time increases heart attacks in the spring. Unacceptable! Must come to a stop.

Finally, here are two bonus funny movies.