Coronavirus Newsletter -- Voting

General Update / Super Spreader Theory / Best Way to Vote

From now on, I think I'll stick with themes in these newsletters. Today that theme is voting, so everything will lead up to the discussion on voting.

First ...

General Update
Last week I expressed a little joy in death rates declining in the US, but evidently it's short-lived. They're on the rise again. Perhaps it was just a data anomaly (some states sending in revised death counts, or the like).

Looking at the NY Times hotspot map in their dashboard, it appears that the colors are getting less red. Most states are declining in new cases or holding steady. The South is still the worst place to be, though my own home state of NC may be doing the best in the South. Georgia, west Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Florida, most of Louisiana, and east Texas all still look pretty bad. Deaths in Georgia continue to increase.

Utah seems to be calming down. California is struggling, and so on, so on.

Overall, something does appear to be slowing down the virus considerably. I think it's the masks, but it could also be the really warm weather right now. We'll have to see ... most think another wave is still coming in the Fall, combined with the next flu season. Next week I'll tackle the question of herd immunity ... so stay tuned for that.

Super Spreader Theory
I'm sure you've heard the stories ... one person infects a large chunk of a choir in Washington. One man infects more than 70 people in South Korea as he visits several bars in one night. A sick guy goes to a family party, only to infect everyone there. Fitness classes infect 65 people. A conference helps spread the virus among 100 people in just two days. And so on.

But then this happens: my mother, a resident of a nursing home, had a roommate who tested positive. The staff immediately had my mother tested, and as soon as she tested negative, they moved her to a safer room. But that took more than 24 hours, during which my mother was confined in a closed room with another infected old lady "coughing up a lung." The beds were more than 6 feet apart. And get this ...

My mother never caught the virus.

How does that even happen?

Enter Super Spreader Theory.

Epidemiologists are a little confused when they study COVID spread patterns. With the flu, the spread is even and follows predictable patterns. But with COVID-19, it's kind of chunky, often with no discernible patterns. Kind of like how a tornado hits a house, skips one, and then hits the next house ... for no apparent reason at all.

Many say this is strong evidence that COVID is spread mostly through super-spreading events. In fact, they say ... get this ...

Only 10 to 20 percent of infected people are likely responsible for 80 percent of the spread!

But nobody knows what the rules are. Why does that person spread it, but not that person? Why did it spread so readily in that event over here, but not in that similar event over there? We have ideas, though.

In general, imagine you want to push a really heavy box. If you lightly press against it, it won't move. You have to push just hard enough to overcome friction, and then all of a sudden it starts to move. And once it moves, the friction decreases, and you don't have to work so hard to keep it going.

Similarly, it could be very possible that you pass by a really sick COVID person, and not catch it at all ... even with masks off -- which can happen if that sick guy hasn't reached whatever threshold is needed to pass on the virus.

One theory is that a person can become a Typhoid Mary, in which he doesn't feel sick enough to stay home, but something about how he breathes, or maybe something special about his body, makes it so that he spews the virus everywhere, and anyone close enough catches it.

Another theory is that it's not the person, but rather the event. If you go to an indoor event where people are together for a long time, then one person could possibly infect everyone in the room through aerosols, or hugging/shaking hands, or through some other vehicle. There's evidence that shouting or singing increases the chances of a super-spreader event occurring.

I realize this may sound kind of strange to you, but scientists are seriously considering this, as it would explain the chunky spread that they're witnessing.

To learn more about this theory, you can read more in these fun articles ...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/science/how-coronavirus-spreads.html
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-superspreading-events-drive-most-covid-19-spread1/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53273382

The nice thing is that if we can understand what causes super-spreading, we can actually make better decisions and help our events not to be so risky. I think that's why we hear a lot about wearing masks, not singing/shouting, and staying outside. It all comes from Super Spreader Theory.

Best Way to Vote
Then it comes down to voting, which we know is a very important part of our nation. And this is happening during 2020, a very important national election. Many are concerned that we will experience a low turnout, which could swing the election in any direction. Or many may show up to the polls and spread the virus ...

... or will they?

Think about the last time you went to go vote in person. Was it an exciting event where everyone talks to each other, and sings and shouts? Or was it more like standing in long lines keeping quiet while you played on your phone? Voting, to me, is sounding like a non-super-spreader event. Once you get past the no-campaigning point, everyone is usually quiet, and everyone just wants to vote and get out of there as fast as they can.

If the "event" aspect of super-spreading is true, then without the singing and shouting ... and if most everyone wears masks, it may actually be safer than attending a protest rally where people are shouting with their masks off.

If, however, the Typhoid Mary theory is more correct, then voting in-person would be riskier.

Either way, it's definitely not zero risk. However, if voting is important to you, I highly recommend looking into the prospects of voting in person ... it may be safer than you think. Voting workers would be more at risk, just because they'll interact with everyone, but they could receive more protection in the form of PPEs.

The CDC supplies these guidelines to help make voting safer for everyone.

Also, ask yourself, if you think the benefits of attending a protest outweigh the risks, then what about voting? Is it worth the risks to vote in this critical election? A message to my more left-leaning friends -- keep in mind that the more conservative voters are going to be less likely to shy away from voting booths.

I, myself, am planning to vote in person unless I get sick in the interim.

And either way, I would not advise older people and those in high-risk groups to take this risk, so what other options are available?

Really only one ... absentee voting has been around forever. Some states, like Texas, require viable excuses or age requirements, but I think most states, like my own NC, do not require an excuse.

You can check here to get more information on how to do absentee voting.

Some states are loosening up excuse requirements, and making it easier to vote by mail. In some cases, the ballots are being sent even when not requested.

As usual, this brings out allegations of fraud.

Can dead people vote? I've seen plenty of Facebook posts -- one that shows 7 delivered ballots at a house where only 4 people live -- the other 3 are dead. The person posting says, "I could take one of these ballots and get a second vote." So why doesn't she do it? And could she even get away with it if she wanted to?

People have tried, but most likely if signatures don't match, the ballots are tossed out as invalid. It's one thing to receive ballots from a district that hasn't cleaned their rosters, but it's another when the ballot is actually sent in, which goes through a more thorough round of due diligence. You can read more here about why there isn't much evidence to support successful voting fraud by mail.

However, there's a big problem with absentee voting. Because of COVID, demand for mail services has increased drastically. At the same time, the USPS has decided to cut back on costs, meaning slower deliveries, which means if you mail in your ballot, there's a good chance that it will not make it in to the polling place in time to be counted.

So, you could be burned with a three-way lag. First you must request the ballot (which you can do online), and wait for them to put your ballot in the mail (lag #1). And then you must wait for the mail to be delivered to you (lag #2). Finally when you place it back into the mail it has to make it to the polling place (lag #3). All these lags can add up.

But luckily, there's another solution growing in popularity. Absentee voting drop boxes. After you fill out your form, you can take it to the nearest drop box and then you can bypass the USPS entirely. In fact, because of anticipated mailing woes, more and more of these drop boxes are being installed.

For some reason, people are still calling "fraud" even with these drop boxes that have been used for years without any issues.

I do find it funny that our president expresses his concerns for fraud, while at the same time actually attempting to introduce fraud with a "legal" facade. I'm surprised to learn of lawsuits going around trying to stop absentee voting (a long-standing tested tradition), the temporary loosening of requirements, attacking drop boxes, and so on -- and not to mention the idea of delaying Election Day, and also promoting the idea that Americans have a right to know who their next president is going to be before they go to bed election night (yeah ... that's not what the Constitution says).

I also know that if the president felt that mail-in ballots would help him, he'd do everything exactly oppositely ... force all states to install drop-boxes, hold the counts open until the USPS delivers ALL mail-in ballots, and so on.

But seeing that Democrats are more likely to use mail-in ballots (and avoid in-person voting), it is very easy to see that this is a downright blatant attempt at voter suppression. It also shows the president's lack of concern over protecting his constituents during a freaking pandemic. There's a safe way to protect all voters and keep it all fair and free from fraud. Now, tell me again why we can't do this?

And remember ... each absentee ballot is vetted, and fraudulent-looking ballots tend to get thrown out.

As it is, experts are saying that it could be weeks before we find out the final tallies, and expect to see a lot of annoying lawsuits ... it'll be like the year 2000 all over again ... on steroids. Eventually we'll get the count before the electors vote for us in December, but it's going to be annoying.

Finally, back to the question of voting ... what is the best way? What's the best way to avoid another 2000 event? Basically you have two choices to ensure your vote gets counted.

#1) Vote in person ... wear your mask ... if you're willing to take the risk ... it's likely safer than you think.
OR #2) Obtain an absentee ballot, fill it out as fast as you can, and drop it into the nearest drop box. (If you have access to a drop box, don't mail in your form.)

If you think it's important to vote, then find a way ... it's definitely worth it. And believe me, this could be a close vote, and you don't want your favorite candidate to lose because you were unable to vote. Don't let your opponents take away your vote. Please also help your friends to understand their options as well ... encourage them to let their vote be heard.

UPDATE: The USPS has officially announced that they cannot guarantee that ballots will be delivered in time to be counted. DO NOT MAIL IN YOUR BALLOT. Use drop boxes, or seriously consider voting in-person.