Coronavirus Newsletter - The Loudness

General Update / The Loudness of the Anti Hype

Tonight I want to extend an earnest plea. I feel that we are losing the battle against the coronavirus and we are in no way prepared for what comes next, but we can change that now -- it's still not too late to act.

First ... 

General Update

The biggest news is that President Trump has contracted the virus. Some think that the main vehicle of spread was this past Saturday surrounding the SCOTUS announcement meeting and ceremony, where there was much hugging and very little mask wearing. 

Check out this tracing effort by the NY Times.

The only "positive" person who wasn't at the SCOTUS activities and didn't appear to meet with Trump afterwards was Ronna McDaniel. My own quick analysis from this tiny bit of information: either Ronna McDaniel is a coincidence, or someone exposed Trump last week, and then Trump exposed Ronna on Friday, several at the SCOTUS activities on Saturday, and then later Hope Hicks.

If this route of exposure is correct, then Biden is not out of the woods yet, even though he's tested negative so far. His wife, Jill, would probably the next to test positive, if she sat anywhere near Melania, and Biden would test positive shortly after that.

I wish them all well -- we need all of these guys alive.

Overall, the US is still stabilizing at the same level of active cases. New cases are also about level. Wisconsin is plastered in red. Other states doing terribly: North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Montana.

My county of Forsyth County finally registers a moderate spike in new cases following Trump's rally a couple of weeks ago; and Clark County, Nevada has shown a faster spike after its indoor rally. But overall my state of North Carolina is trying to stay low.

And now comes my frustrations ...

The Loudness of the Anti Hype

Last week I posted The Simplicity of the Coronavirus, which I personally thought was one of the most important posts I've written so far, and it's received one of the lowest number of views. The purpose of the post was to teach the one and only goal of fighting viruses: to keep R(t) < 1.0. Or in other words, cause active cases to go down until the virus is eradicated. From here on out, I will refer to this as the One True Goal.

I also introduced the concept of the Anti Hype, which is basically anything that works against the One True Goal. The coronavirus is a hoax. It's dying out on its own. Masks cause more disease than they prevent. There's a cure, so we don't have to wear masks. Herd immunity is the only way to win, and so on.

But get this ... while my "very important" post got very little views, I see that Anti Hype posts get very many views, lots of likes, and lots of positive comments. And I'm flabbergasted. I lay out in simple terms the simple truth and no one wants to hear it. Other people work up attractive lies, and it gets shared across the whole United States.

It's like I'm over here in a corner saying, "hey guys ... i know how to get us out of this mess, and it's so easy ... we could save so many lives ... and keep our economy open ... can we work together on this?" And I'm in a very loud room of people saying crazy crap. All my efforts seem to be in vain, and it saddens me. I know what's coming next, and I can do absolutely nothing to stop it. (Cassandra Complex.)

And why should you believe me? Because my life's training has made me uniquely qualified to be the perfect armchair commentator during this pandemic. I am an actuary, a modeler, and a programmer. I'm in the 99.9th percentile of math knowledge, and one well-rehearsed in logic fallacies (which I witness every single day). In other words: I AM A NERD, AND I AM IN MY ELEMENT. And I am more than willing to help make these concepts easy for everyone to understand.

By now, you're probably wondering why I opened with a picture of Trump. Two reasons. #1) Trump is one of the loudest proponents of the Anti Hype in the US, but is by no means the original creator of the movement. And the real reason: #2) posts that feature Trump seem to get more views. But in actuality, Trump is not my target in this post. My goal is to get right down to the source.

And finally comes my plea ...

I sincerely want you all to understand the true source of the Anti Hype, why it's so loud, so popular, and so powerful.

I know that nefarious forces are behind this movement. It's been known for years that the Russians have been working to divide our nation through social media, using Artificial Intelligence to generate memes and statements scientifically designed to catch our attention, cause us to hate our opponents, and ultimately lead us to civil war. We know the accounts that have been identified as Russian "bots," and we have analyzed the language in tweets and messages, and have learned how they manipulate us. (I've been working for years on a post on this phenomenon -- maybe if I have enough energy you'll finally get to see it.)

We also know in general how social media offers us a dangerous reinforcement loop, where as we look at articles and links that support what we already believe, social media will suggest further similar articles and links that will lock us into our beliefs and lose us all in confirmation bias. If you haven't done so already, please read my review of The Social Dilemma on Netflix, and watch it for yourself for a better understanding of how we're all being manipulated.

And if you're religious, or allow for allegories, then yes ... Satan, himself (or the evil that exists in all humans), is behind this Anti Hype. And it's so easy to demonstrate the truth of this, because as the One True Goal is simple, so is the goal of the Anti Hype.

And that goal is to MAXIMIZE THE NUMBER OF DEATHS.

If you want to know if a certain concept belongs to the One True Goal or if it belongs to the Anti Hype, then there is a simple test you can apply. Ask yourself: "Does this idea lead to killing off the virus, or does it lead to killing more humans?"

Let's try it out. If it helps, you can imagine South Park "dum .. dum .. dum .. dum" and "smart .. smart .. smart .. smart" while we try out these tests.

"We need to wear masks." -- If masks have any effectiveness whatsoever, then wearing them can only bring down active cases, and it's a very easy and cheap solution to fight the virus. ONE TRUE GOAL (OTG).

"Wearing masks is against our constitutional rights." -- On the flip side, if there is any effectiveness in masks, this idea seems to allow more infections and more deaths. ANTI HYPE.

"Coronavirus is a hoax." -- If we believe it doesn't exist, then we don't have to do anything. And doing nothing leads to more deaths. ANTI HYPE. (Also, a religious/allegorical angle: the devil teaches us that he doesn't exist.)

"We should cooperate with contact tracers." -- If contact tracers can find infected people more quickly, then they can be quarantined faster and stop further spread. OTG.

"The virus is dying out on its own." Or "We're already at herd immunity." -- If this belief leads to less mitigation factors, it allows the virus to spread -- more deaths. ANTI HYPE.

"We can't stop the virus. Our only outcome is herd immunity." -- This definitely promotes doing nothing, which in turn promotes spread. ANTI HYPE.

"We should test a lot of people often." -- Anything that can help find infected people quicker helps to slow down the spread. OTG.

"These people would have died anyway this year." -- I've seen different variations of this one including a recent one trying to show full year CDC deaths from all causes and comparing to 2020. Believe me ... as an actuary I can tell you that this misuse of math is wrong, and if you do the math correctly, you'd see that opposite is true. (I'm planning a post on excess deaths shortly.) So ... ANTI HYPE.

"We should mock those who wear masks, and accost them, and rip off those masks, and even attack mask displays we see at the store." -- Not only does this exhibit lack of mitigation factors, but removing other people's masks, yelling, and other craziness actually increase the spread of the virus. Definitely -- ANTI HYPE -- big time.

"For now we shouldn't allow congregational singing at churches." -- This one is borderline -- tougher to apply the test, but I include it anyway. Choral singing and congregational singing has already been identified as a vector of spread, so singing increases the danger of spread and death, while temporarily abstaining helps to keep the risks lower (so we can enjoy other in-person worshipful activities with lower risks). OTG.

In a nutshell, if something leads you to doing nothing and pretending that the virus doesn't exist, it's actually promoting spread and death. This type of reasoning is the hallmark of the ANTI HYPE, and its goal is to MAXIMIZE DEATH.

On the other hand, if something leads you to take simple and easy actions to help protect the vulnerable and causes you to work together with others to the goal of eradicating the virus, then it must indeed be a good thing. This leads us to the ONE TRUE GOAL, and its goal is to MINIMIZE DEATH.

So, I repeat my earnest plea ... please, please, please, please, please consider all these words and internalize these simple concepts ... try them out and analyze all the claims that are going around. Do they lead to MORE deaths or LESS deaths? And if you decide to take action, consider the following ... the trifecta:

1) Wear masks.

2) Cooperate with contact tracers ... and bonus: download a Google/Apple contact tracing app if it exists in your state.

3) If you think you've been exposed, get tested.

If you do those three simple things, I think we have a chance. If not, December, January, and February are going to be very painful and make up-to-now look like nothing. It's not too late. We can do this.