Biden -- Looking Ahead

I usually try to get these presidential previews out much earlier than this, but I've been busy. So in my four-year look ahead, I now have the advantage of hindsight for Biden's first 100 days. What's going to happen in the next four years?

Let me get the easy stuff out of the way, first. I have every reason to believe Biden is still going to be alive in four years. He may be on the sickly side, but his doctors are going to keep him alive. Will he run for a second term? I don't think so.

Undoing Trump

We should be used to this by now. Trump undid a lot of Obama, and Biden has already undone a lot of Trump -- so it earns first place on my list. On the most part I am happy with these actions. If you've been following my articles, there were several Trump policies that I opposed, even though I'm mostly a conservative.

I won't harp too much on this, except to note one Trump policy that still remains in place. We still have the tax cuts, including the 21% corporate tax rate. Biden wants to split the difference between that and the prior 35% to bring us to 28%. I'm personally opposed to this idea -- as everyone agrees that it will lead to job loss -- mainly among the middle class. He also wants to institute a minimum corporate tax, of which I strongly oppose. We should close the loopholes instead of punishing corporations for timing issues leading to temporary lower paid taxes.

Biden promises to leave alone the taxes on the first $400k of personal income, which I'm certain will stand -- the middle class tax rates will not change despite a lot of misinformation going around. But Biden does plan on raising taxes on income past $400k, including capital gains tax -- and I'm perfectly fine with this.

But will this pass through Congress? I think it will.

The Coronavirus

Overall, I think Biden's handling of the pandemic is okay. It's a lot better than Trump's handling. If Biden had done even the littlest thing at all to combat the virus, he would have done better than Trump after April 2020. As of now, I see vastly improved numbers and the situation is still getting better. Biden has successfully provided additional support to the states to help distribute the vaccine.

However, Biden seems a little wishy washy in areas that could have really helped get the numbers down even faster. Instead of only asking everyone to wear masks, he could have instituted an actual mask mandate. He could be doing a lot more to incentivize people to be vaccinated -- such as mandating vaccine passports and requiring them at places of transportation. He could have pushed the Google/Apple contact tracing technology and require a national use of it -- which really could help identify much more quickly the asymptomatic virus transfer. You may have seen my article as to what I would have done if I were president.

But maybe Biden has done enough -- maybe we'll see the virus go away now and normality by July 4th. It all depends on what happens next. The coronavirus numbers began coming down drastically in January when it was clear how Biden was going to lead.

Immigration

Will we ever have a president who gets this right? Trump, in my opinion was too strict in his immigration policy -- much more effectively lowering legal immigration than he did illegal immigration -- including a new policy to start rejecting green card renewals -- punishing those who "came through the gate legally." And building an expensive symbolic ineffective wall -- which evidently can still be scaled and dug underneath.

On the other hand, Biden seems to be too light on immigration. As soon as he got in office, immigration attempts skyrocketed -- especially among children. He says that it's just a winter rush of immigration, but we all know it's because everyone down south thinks Biden is "such a great guy." It also didn't help that Biden announced that we're not going to turn away the children. And it also seems that "catch and release" is back on the table.

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Maybe one day we'll get a president who can most effectively manage our borders. Not too strict. Not too light. More people coming in legally and paying taxes, and much less illegal immigration.

Obamacare

I have no idea what comes next, here. My guess is that Biden will reinstitute the individual mandate. Technically it still exists, but it's just set at $0. My prediction is that very little will happen in the area of healthcare, and prices will continue to increase.

Global Warming

The "scientist" side of me is actually a little excited about Biden's plans to counter global warming. Overall, since 2000, pollution from the US per capita has been decreasing as technologies improve, but we're still one of the highest per capita polluters.

However, I am a little concerned with the price tag on Biden's current infrastructure proposal. Trillions of dollars is a big deal, even if spread out over several years. It still falls far short of the impossibly ambitious Green New Deal, but it still seems to be too ambitious, possibly even including a lot of expensive liberal programs that don't really have much to do with global warming. (I haven't yet studied what's in that plan.)

I'm happy that Biden is doing something, but isn't there some innovative solution somewhere in the middle? I love the idea of building up solar cells to supplement our already-existing power supplies. (I've got some ideas in that area that I may share one day.) That doesn't seem to be too expensive. And within a couple of decades, we're likely to get some cold fusion going, which will be a much more efficient and cleaner energy source that would drastically reduce pollution just by the virtue of it becoming available.

We'll see what happens. I expect that the current proposal will NOT pass, but a watered-down version may eventually pass.

Midterm Elections

I'm going to go ahead and make a bold prediction -- that Republicans will NOT overtake the House nor the Senate. Well -- small chance they may get the Senate, but I believe the attempt to overturn the election supported by so many big named Republicans is going to backfire -- just as it did in the January special election in GA. Plus, I predict that many independents will actually like what Biden will have accomplished and will vote Democrat at the end of next year.

I'm not sure what to think about this development. A lot of my conservative friends fear that the "Socialist Democratic Party" will destroy our country. I wouldn't say we're going that far -- we'll definitely survive and have another chance later for conservatives to get back into power. But I do believe we may end up erring in the area of losing jobs and have another recession in a few years.

But then again -- I think that Republicans lost their seat at the table when they put Trump in the big chair. And they will likely be kept from that seat as long as they continue pushing the Trump agenda (which is only popular among a 30% base -- and not so much among independents anymore).

National Unity

This is where I saw the most hope for Biden. Obama divided us. Trump divided us ten times more than Obama did. I saw a very toxic situation brewing, which I think has already been diffused immensely ever since Biden got sworn into office. I still think Biden may have a chance in bringing Americans closer together.

However, he certainly has a strange way to carry this out. In this area I am somewhat disappointed already. Trump had said in his inaugural speech, "Come to me and I will unite you." (So funny!) Biden did a much better job in his speech asking for unity, but unfortunately, at a later time, he too said his version of "Come to me and I will unite you."

Biden seems to be really good at pushing liberal ideas, but I'm not seeing much conservative ideas being pushed. Also, Biden still doesn't seem to do too well when it comes to answering antagonistic questions. He, like Trump, seems to be very capable of walking off stage when the questions get tough.

In addition, he's not very good at winning over the Trump camp. Just like Obama did to Bush, and what Trump did to Obama, Biden is certainly continuing the blaming of the former president. He even continues to misrepresent what Trump says and utters inaccuracies all the time. For example, he blasts Trump's handling of the vaccine rollout, but then when he took over, the graph of vaccine shots per day did not really change its trend. Biden was simply continuing what Trump had started.

If Biden wants unity, he needs to speak the truth. He needs to acknowledge Trump where Trump did well. If he had simply thanked Trump for Operation Warp Speed and put him on a pedestal while praising the vaccine, then so many more conservatives would be getting the vaccine right now, and so many more conservatives might be thinking, "Biden isn't as bad as we thought he'd be."

I know Biden's heart is in the right place, but his current tactics just aren't working. Maybe he'll figure it out eventually. Those with good hearts tend to ultimately find the right answers.

My prediction on this front: I think we'll ultimately become more unified -- whether it be from the absence of a toxic president, or from Biden finally bringing us together.

Closing Remarks

Biden would not be my personal pick for president, but for the 2020 election, I did vote for him because that's what I thought was best for our nation. And that's even with me disagreeing with a lot of his policies. Ten years ago, I would have never imagined myself voting for him -- especially when I had remarked, "He looks just like his party mascot!" But yet, that's how my vote went.

Even though I may express some disappointment in Biden today and over the next four years, I do not regret my vote, and I am unlikely to regret it (I do not regret any of my presidential votes over my entire voting record). I know what direction we were heading, and I believe we've dodged that future for now. We get to survive another four years. I also know that things will not get as bad as many of my conservatives fear -- because I actually listen to what Biden is saying, and not what others say that he's saying.

Biden may continue to be wishy-washy, and provide us with plenty of funny senior moments. I think he'll fail at some of his goals, but will succeed in other areas. I also anticipate that the next four years will not be as exciting as the last four years (as I already enjoy the fact that I can go days without worrying about what the president is doing). But ... we'll see what happens.

Coronavirus -- You Will Most Likely Get Vaccinated

Welcome to a special edition coronavirus newsletter. I figured now would be the best time to provide a quick vaccine update. Overall, this is really good news, as all signs point to an actual end to this pandemic, and a relatively quick return to a normal life. I thought I would clarify some questions about the vaccine based on my recent research and also provide my own predictions. I will say outright that the health departments and the press have been downplaying these vaccines big time, so much that it's confusing many people who have valid concerns.

I will also now make a bold prediction that the vast majority of those reading this newsletter will ultimately choose to get vaccinated of their own volition, and I think you know this deep down. Maybe you'll choose to do so sooner rather than later, but we'll see.

What I'm going to do in this article is to first present four scenarios that are likely to play out, and I will also speak to several different concerns. And at the very end, I will finish off with my own personal testimony as a Christian for those who may appreciate it.

First off, I should point out that some people probably should NOT get vaccinated. If you have certain health conditions, you should discuss with a doctor. If a doctor tells you "no," then don't get vaccinated. If you are allergic to some inoculations, you might want to consider the Johnson & Johnson shot instead of Pfizer or Moderna. Also, if you've recently recovered from COVID19, you're likely to have protection for a while -- maybe six months. Everyone should keep this in mind and not be too judgmental. We just need "enough" to be vaccinated in order for this to end.

Scenario #1: The Happy Scenario

Once we hit a certain level of herd immunity, new infections will fall, and eventually the virus will disappear -- or it will become a very small trickle that's easy to handle. We could hit this level if we have enough people who get vaccinated plus those recently recovered from COVID19. For example, if 50% get fully vaccinated, and 20% have recent sickness protection, that would get us up to 70%. And if that's enough coverage (we're not sure what the right number is, yet), then we will hit this immunity pretty quickly and -- you wouldn't have to get vaccinated. And more power to us! I would love this outcome. The masks would come off, and everyone would be happy as things return to normal.

However -- you may already guess that I place a small probability on this outcome. I think that if we want to end this for good, we're going to need 90% total coverage as soon as possible. Even with herd immunity with a still-high base of active cases, I think it would still leave enough fuel for the virus to continue infecting the unvaccinated and mutate to new viruses that will resist the vaccines (ending herd immunity for everyone), which would then require booster shots. 

I do think it is highly likely that we will have to get at least one additional booster shot toward the end of this year. However, if we could somehow get up to 90% coverage fast enough, we could avoid this booster.

Scenario #2: The Peer Pressure Scenario

I notice that the vast majority of my friends on social media want this shot and are more than happy to share when they get their shots. These come from friends of all walks of life: liberals, conservatives, religious, atheist, and so on. The ones complaining about the shots are a shrinking minority. Depending on which poll you believe, the number who want the shot is around the 60-80% range.

Many of the remaining group may simply choose to go ahead and get vaccinated because they just don't want to be a holdout. That would be fine with me ... the more who get vaccinated, the better. Out of the four scenarios, I see this one as the most likely to play out.

Scenario #3: The Vaccine Passport Scenario

Biden has already made it clear that he's not going to force these vaccines nor the passports on us. He's going to leave it to the private sector to decide. And I think governors can still institute their own mandates.

I fully support the idea of instituting vaccine passports, whether it be a governor's executive order or a business's choice, as I believe it would help to expedite going back to normal more quickly without worrying so much about infecting the unvaccinated and inviting mutations and so on.

Newer studies are showing good evidence that 12 days after a full vaccination, we receive near-full protection from COVID19 and most of the current variants -- even stronger protection than one gets from recovering from the virus itself. And asymptomatic transfer may even be reduced significantly.

I personally think masks aren't as necessary for the fully vaccinated person, but there does remain around a 10% chance of still getting a mild case of the virus and possibly infecting someone else, so it would probably still be prudent to go ahead and continue wearing masks until base active counts get to be low again -- which won't be long if most of us get vaccinated.

In this vaccine passport scenario, it's likely that many of the resisters may get the vaccine so they can more freely get around, though they may feel that their freedoms are taken away. But then they'll be fine once everything goes back to normal. However, I place a low probability on this whole scenario, as Biden doesn't have enough gumption to push the vaccine passports on a national level, and I think there will be too much resistance. For example, Governor DeSantis has already banned all vaccine passports in Florida, even as that state is starting their next surge.

Scenario #4: The Drag-It-Out Worst Case Scenario

I really hope it doesn't come to this. If enough people resist the vaccines and we don't hit the desired herd immunity, then this thing is going to drag out even longer -- past July 4th -- past Thanksgiving -- past Christmas -- into 2022 and beyond. This is because mutations will continue to pop up, requiring further booster shots from updated vaccines -- maybe every 6 months or so. We'll see much more reinfections occurring.

But here's the catch ... the ones dying will mostly be among those who still refuse to be vaccinated. And there will come the time when they finally figure it out ... "We're dying. Okay -- we'll take the shot." I don't want to see my friends end this way. I also don't want to see this thing linger much longer.

So, let's take a closer look at some of the concerns that keep popping up.

I don't want to lose my freedoms.

I have never seen it this way and probably never will. And as I mentioned above, Biden isn't going to push it. 

We are all free to choose, but we don't get to choose the consequences. 

If we refuse the shot and die from COVID19 complications, we would have exercised our freedoms, but we would also have lost access to the rest of our lives. Further, if we refuse the shot, we could end up infecting another person who ends up dying -- thus curtailing the freedoms of that person.

Most people who get the vaccine get a sore arm, and then ... well ... they get back to their own lives, fully capable of enjoying their freedoms.

The FDA hasn't approved these vaccines.

This is true. It is being allowed only on an emergency basis. In fact, they're still doing tests to determine long-time efficacy and to determine any further long-term effects. This is also the first time mRNA vaccines have been allowed to be administered to the public (Pfizer and Moderna). This is amazing new technology, which could have tremendous applications against other viruses once it's proven to be safe enough. And no ... they do not change our DNA. The mRNA fragments don't even enter our cells -- a fact that may make this the safest type of vaccine ever created.

Being on emergency basis, the US continues to monitor results arising from the three approved vaccines: Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson&Johnson. So far, side effects and deaths are few -- with deaths being as low as compared to "not getting the vaccine." Experience is strongly supporting the fact that these vaccines are safe. (Though -- as I said before -- some people with underlying conditions may be more susceptible to adverse side effects -- if you suspect this, do your research -- talk to your doctor.)

These shots have aborted fetus tissue.

This is not quite true. Though, all three approved vaccines (and many of the other vaccinations) make use of cell cultures grown from three specific aborted fetuses from the 60s-80s. These cells are used either in the testing or in the production process, but as far as I can tell, these cells aren't in the final products. These same culture cells have also already been used around the world for decades for other medical purposes ... and yes ... they really do grow from the same three fetuses. No new abortions are needed to create these vaccines. If you want more details, you can read more in my earlier blog entry.

Or you can consider that the Pope and the leader of my church, Pres. Nelson, both of whom are fully aware of the existence of these cell cultures, have approved these vaccines, have received these vaccines, and have urged us all to get vaccinated. (Click the following pictures for more information.)

But I really like Trump, so I'm not getting the shot.

I doubt that any of you are saying this exactly, but I do notice that most people resisting the vaccine are on the conservative side, and most are avid Trump supporters. And sometimes it seems to me that they choose to fight the vaccine because it's one way to show their love and support for Trump. Or it may simply be that they pick up this sentiment visiting Parler or other conservative-leaning platforms.

If this really is the one thing holding you back, then please listen to Trump. These vaccines that we have now represent one thing Trump has done right in this pandemic. It is Trump's legacy, which is saving lives today.

Trump received at least the first shot of the vaccine in January. At CPAC, he urged everybody to get the shot.

And Trump emphasized this again in a recent phone interview on Fox News.

Trump wants you to be vaccinated -- he wants his legacy to be a success. Please don't let him down.

My final testimony

And lastly, I'd like to present my own personal religious testimony, Christian to other religionists. I usually like to keep these posts agnostic so all readers can benefit, but I feel that what I wish to say sincerely here will reach many of you.

You may remember during the beginning parts of the pandemic, right after lockdowns were urged in nearly every state -- there was much prayer and fasting for the epidemic to end. Pres. Nelson, of my own church, invited people from around the world to join in prayer and fasting on 4/10/2020 (Good Friday) -- exactly one year ago today. He asked us to pray for an end of the pandemic and that our lives would be normalized.

And many people of many faiths joined in the prayer on Good Friday -- either by invitation or independently. In my city of Winston-Salem, my wife and I watched a broadcast from our city government -- an hour of prayer and reflection from several religious leaders, including Christian, Muslim, Buddhist, Wiccan, and other religions.

I really believed something big would come out of this unification in prayer -- some miracle cure or other event that would save lives. But we would yet have another 500,000+ deaths in our nation alone. Was it in vain?

I've have only recently come to discover that something big did happen in April 2020 -- shortly after all the prayer and fasting. The first version of the first two vaccines to be approved in the US, Moderna and Pfizer, was finished and clinical trials began -- yes -- in April. Johnson&Johnson followed afterwards with trials beginning in July. And these vaccines would be among the most effective vaccines ever made -- as good as if not better than our current shots for measles and chicken pox. These vaccines put our flu vaccines to shame. It did take a while for adequate testing before being released to the public, but we have them now.

I believe these vaccines were a direct answer to all of our united fasting and prayer from different religions. God listened and provided us the key to stopping more death, normalizing our lives, and being healthy again. He had inspired the doctors and scientists to create very effective vaccines. He knows the count of our days and has let us know that He intends for us to live longer -- that it is not yet our time to die.

So, I happily choose to accept God's gift, and take this vaccine so that it may extend my life, and save the lives of others, and help bring us back to normality. I am not going to throw away the shot that He has provided.

Trump -- Looking Back

Four years ago, I made a series of predictions about Trump's first term. A little over halfway into his term, I posted an update. Today I'll finish out the backtesting -- how well did I do in my predictions? To save myself time, if there's no change between my mid-term report and today, I'll only give you the new developments.

"The next four years will be interesting." Ding ding ding ding -- that one was too easy.

Social issues

I was mostly off on this: "I don't think Trump will be as bad as many of my left-leaning friends fear." Technically this turned out to be true only in that it could have been much worse, but it was still pretty bad. Most of my right-leaning friends don't see this, but they also don't want to see it. I, on the other hand can't unsee what I've seen.

LGBT concerns: Pretty much nailed it.

Obamacare: As I mentioned before, Trump and friends failed to come up with a replacement, and healthcare costs are still high. Will it be a disaster with the mandate removed? It's still too soon to tell.

Immigration: It got even worse in the last two years. Many people don't seem to understand that Trump made it much harder to legally enter the United States. Quotas for refugees were drastically reduced. Those with green cards (also known as those who went through the gate legally) were hit with new rules to make it harder to remain in the country (while one of Trump's people ridiculed the Statue of Liberty). H1-B visas have gotten even more scarce. Refugees were treated contrary to the Geneva Refugee Convention, including deporting them back into danger and sometimes death, and permanently separating over a thousand children from their parents -- helping us to really stand out in the world. He did have portions of his Wall built, but not much. It still remains ugly, symbolic, ineffective, and expensive. Mexicans have already demonstrated that they can climb it and still dig under it.

And Mexico never did pay for the wall -- so I got that one right.

Muslims: Nothing new here -- I pretty much got that one right.

Black people: Tensions certainly increased in the last two years, including some highway protests -- so I'll give myself a thumbs-up on that. I still don't see Trump as racist toward black people, just someone who doesn't know how to handle these tensions correctly. He could have easily helped to diffuse many of the Black Lives Matter protests in 2020, but he ended up exacerbating the tensions -- I think mostly due to incompetence and thinking a ill-executed "Law and Order" campaign would actually work.

Trump as Hitler

I'll give myself a thumbs-up for saying Trump would not turn into Hitler. I still don't see him as evil. Though ... "Trump will usher in a disaster from his ignorance." A big thumbs-up to me. Ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding! Can someone say coronavirus? On this topic alone, I could go on and on and on, which I do in this post.

And though "Hitler" never happened, I had no idea that "Putin" would show up big time in Trump during the 2020 elections and how he tried to upend our Constitution in an attempt to maintain power. I chronicle much of what transpired here, but this doesn't include the Capitol riots. Depending on what occurs over the next couple of months, I may dive deeper into this big hoax, but I really don't want to have to do it.

Fake news

When I said Trump would have "zero effect" in silencing his opponents, I was right in that I don't believe any news outlets got in trouble or suffered. On the contrary, they may have flourished. But I was wrong in that Trump did succeed in convincing millions of Americans that reputable news sources really aren't "reputable."

And something I didn't see at all: fringe outlets such as OAN and Newsmax actually got a big boost after Fox News called Arizona for Biden in early November (they were only following the AP). Such a silly thing to get angry about. Move over Fox News, here comes something scarier!

And at the same time Twitter and Facebook made the stupidest mistake of silencing many of my conservative friends by flagging posts and deleting them. This pushed many conservatives to more conservative social media sites such as Parler, thus creating a dangerous confirmation bias environment.

Now I think we're still in a very precarious situation, and much, much, much closer to that strange civil war I keep warning about. Though, Biden becoming president seems to have already helped to diffuse this greatly.

"Perhaps we just need to take away his Twitter account." LOL! I had no idea how prophetic this sentence would turn out to be!

Money

I hit the money on the Federal Reserve (nothing happened -- really). And corporations really are flourishing. Though our deficit took a big hit -- even before coronavirus hit.

Foreign Relations

I was thankfully wrong about: "we will see one, if not two attacks." We have yet to see our next sizable foreign terrorist attack on our soil since 9/11. Though, domestic violence has increased greatly.

I was also wrong about Trump -- big time -- when it came to his big win helping to broker a peace deal in the Middle East -- didn't see that one coming.

Russia again did try to help Trump maintain power, but looks like it failed. Trump losing actually increases the chances of Putin's rival to gain more popularity and perhaps get into power. Russia continues to influence our social media ... big time, and most Americans still continue to fall into their scientifically-generated traps. (More about that later.)

Trump's Gift to Unite

It never happened. Trump never did rise to this call. He proved time and time again that his ability to maintain power was much more important than anything else. He has divided us further. He has made people more angry -- in particular, his base. He has turned himself into an idol -- bigger than his Party even, and sometimes even bigger than God. He has critically weakened the Republican Party, which is now likely to fall and possibly give way to another party.

It has been a very interesting four years. In some respects we may be better off, but in many others I think we are frighteningly worse off. I think my predictions turned out to be reasonable, though I missed a couple of big items. 

Up next -- I will do my own forecast of Biden's upcoming four years. I think that task will be more difficult. Heh.