Lunch Tracker -- the Pre-Update

Hello, and welcome to the Lunch Tracker. If you haven't heard of this yet, check it out, click on the link, or click the "The Lunch Tracker" in the menu at the top of this blog. In a nutshell, I've made a series of predictions as to what Trump will cause to happen during his next four years in office, and I've promised my friends in Alpharetta, GA -- if these don't come to pass, I owe them all a lunch. Will the lunch happen?

Right now the full 100 points are awarded to Trump. Should he cause one of the listed items to happen, I will deduct the pre-determined points (or a portion of them), and as long as his score remains at or above 90 points, I owe lunch.

Every time I deduct points, I will do so with a corresponding Lunch Tracker Update post. And even when it's clear that lunch is not going to happen, I will still continue to deduct points -- because, well -- I worked hard on these predictions, and I'm going to allow myself the indulgence of being right on these. Either way, I'm going to have fun with this. (Unless that one item happens where I personally get punished, or my lunch tracker is censored -- that would just royally suck.)

Also, in this pre-update, I'm adding a new rule: if I feel that my threshold needs to be loosened (that is, I feel that Trump hadn't really turned out to be that bad), then I'll loosen it. For example, I might drop it from 90 to 85. But once I do so, I won't tighten it back.

Another clarification: I haven't deducted any points yet, because -- well, Trump isn't President, yet. He needs to actually be in office, and these items need to come to pass because of his official actions as president, or from any of his appointees acting in his behalf. 

Take for example the item "Pardons self or ends all lawsuits against him." Trump is planning to appeal his felony "hush money" conviction. If he is successful in his appeal, that doesn't count, because it wouldn't be an executive action. If, on the other hand, he says "I'm no longer a felon -- I'm pardoned." Well -- that's an official act, and boom -- 1 point deducted. If Biden pardons Trump in the next few days -- doesn't count. 

Also, there may be several items that are recent concerns that I did NOT predict. For example, I did NOT predict land grabbing. If that happens, it could suck, but since I didn't predict it, I would not deduct any points.

Finally, keep in mind that I will be updating/changing the Tracker as points are deducted. So, to make sure I'm not changing the actual predictions after the fact, I'll copy those predictions at the bottom of this post, which I cannot edit without timestamps being changed. You can likewise feel free to copy/paste these predictions in a safe place to prove to yourselves that I didn't change anything.

But, to be honest, my actuarial opinion is that -- yes -- I'm very likely to NOT provide lunch, but we'll see. My conservative friends keep me around because they know I have an open mind, and if I'm wrong, I will happily accept my wrongness.

I do recognize a hope, which in Trump's "acceptance" speech early the next morning after Election Day, he stated that he was no longer going to "rally" because he isn't running again in four years, and that he was going to instead focus on helping the country. In other words, maybe he'll drop the demeaning nicknames of his opponents and his divisive rhetoric, and with humility actually LEAD our nation to true greatness? I read one article: what if Trump surprises us and acts like a real president and stops all the division, greed, and power-grabbing? If this happens, he has my full support.

Also, there happen to be some drastic agenda items of Trump and his staff I would actually support, such as the end of Daylight Saving Time, or going after high fructose corn syrup and other dangerous food additives. But keep in mind, Trump doesn't get any bonus points for doing things I like. He's starting with 100 points, and they're all his to lose.

But then again, who am I fooling? In the past two months, he's given every indication that he's going to continue doing exactly what he did in the first four years. For starters -- what has he scheduled the night before inauguration? That's right -- another freakin' "rally." Totally breaking his promise of "no more rallies." So, maybe he won't focus on actually helping us after all?

If his reaction to the LA fires is any indication, I'm not holding my breath. If we have another bad pandemic in the next four years, we are all going to be in big trouble. And I'm seeing other leading indicators from just the past two months that suggest I'll be deducting points on at least three other items, but we'll see what actually happens. Maybe when this is all over, I'll be singing Trump's praises.

The predictions locked in time ...

Category	Event	Points	Score	Notes
Retribution	Uses presidential power or agencies to go after current or political opponents	3	3
	Imprisons at least one prominent political opponent critical of Trump	5	5
	Executes at least one political opponent	9	9	These kind of actions would be a serious indicator of the erosion of our Constitution
	I am personally punished for speaking against Trump -- whether thrown into prison or this Tracker is censored	10	10	If something happens to me -- you're just not getting lunch
Military / Posse Comitatus	Federalizes the National Guard and uses them against US civilians (that is, not going through governors)	4	4
	Uses active troops against US civilians	7	7	This is allowed by law, but general goes against key principles behind the Constitution
Inflation	Inflation higher than 10%	3	3
	Inflation higher than 25%	7	7	Inflation is rated higher, as it was a major reason why Trump was elected
Immigration	100,000 people die while being deported in any 12-month period	4	4
	100,000 LEGAL non-citizens are deported in any 12-month period	3	3
	10,000 US citizens are deported	2	2
Media	Punishes at least one media outlet through executive branch (suing doesn't count)	3	3
	Law passes to prohibit speech that is critical of President	5	5	Would be against the First Amendment
Foreign Concerns	Helps give land "peacefully" from the Ukraine to Russia	3	3
	At least two other cases of allowing autocrats to take over democracies	3	3
	Worldwide US share of reserve currency drops below 50%	2	2	An indication of weakness
	Another currency tops the dollar as most used reserve currency	2	2	An indication of weakness
	China and or Russia dominates over the US in power and influence	4	4	An indication of weakness
Social Issues	LGBTQ protections are lessened	2	2
	Gay marriage is no longer federally recognized	5	5	Do we really need more freedoms taken away?
Federal Agencies	Dismantles or lessens the independence of five or more federal agencies	1	1	I will rate some items like this low to cover cases where Trump does this, but we end up being okay
	Destroys the independence of the Federal Reserve	3	3	Will likely be the impetus of higher inflation, which could compound points here
Environment	Pulls us out of climate change agreements	1	1
	Pollution increased due to deregulation	2	2	Some items like this are on the hard side to prove -- so I've rated them low
	Another pandemic is mishandled -- equal to or greater than Covid19	3	3
Third Term	Tries to repeal 22nd Amendment	1	1
	22nd Amendment successfully repealed	1	1
Riches	Collects more than $1B from his followers while in office	1	1	Don't much care about this one -- it's not my money he's taking
Lawsuits	Pardons self or ends all lawsuits against him	1	1
Totals		100	100	I owe lunch