Welcome to a special edition coronavirus newsletter. I figured now would be the best time to provide a quick vaccine update. Overall, this is really good news, as all signs point to an actual end to this pandemic, and a relatively quick return to a normal life. I thought I would clarify some questions about the vaccine based on my recent research and also provide my own predictions. I will say outright that the health departments and the press have been downplaying these vaccines big time, so much that it's confusing many people who have valid concerns.
I will also now make a bold prediction that the vast majority of those reading this newsletter will ultimately choose to get vaccinated of their own volition, and I think you know this deep down. Maybe you'll choose to do so sooner rather than later, but we'll see.
What I'm going to do in this article is to first present four scenarios that are likely to play out, and I will also speak to several different concerns. And at the very end, I will finish off with my own personal testimony as a Christian for those who may appreciate it.
First off, I should point out that some people probably should NOT get vaccinated. If you have certain health conditions, you should discuss with a doctor. If a doctor tells you "no," then don't get vaccinated. If you are allergic to some inoculations, you might want to consider the Johnson & Johnson shot instead of Pfizer or Moderna. Also, if you've recently recovered from COVID19, you're likely to have protection for a while -- maybe six months. Everyone should keep this in mind and not be too judgmental. We just need "enough" to be vaccinated in order for this to end.
Scenario #1: The Happy Scenario
Once we hit a certain level of herd immunity, new infections will fall, and eventually the virus will disappear -- or it will become a very small trickle that's easy to handle. We could hit this level if we have enough people who get vaccinated plus those recently recovered from COVID19. For example, if 50% get fully vaccinated, and 20% have recent sickness protection, that would get us up to 70%. And if that's enough coverage (we're not sure what the right number is, yet), then we will hit this immunity pretty quickly and -- you wouldn't have to get vaccinated. And more power to us! I would love this outcome. The masks would come off, and everyone would be happy as things return to normal.
However -- you may already guess that I place a small probability on this outcome. I think that if we want to end this for good, we're going to need 90% total coverage as soon as possible. Even with herd immunity with a still-high base of active cases, I think it would still leave enough fuel for the virus to continue infecting the unvaccinated and mutate to new viruses that will resist the vaccines (ending herd immunity for everyone), which would then require booster shots.
I do think it is highly likely that we will have to get at least one additional booster shot toward the end of this year. However, if we could somehow get up to 90% coverage fast enough, we could avoid this booster.
Scenario #2: The Peer Pressure Scenario
I notice that the vast majority of my friends on social media want this shot and are more than happy to share when they get their shots. These come from friends of all walks of life: liberals, conservatives, religious, atheist, and so on. The ones complaining about the shots are a shrinking minority. Depending on which poll you believe, the number who want the shot is around the 60-80% range.
Many of the remaining group may simply choose to go ahead and get vaccinated because they just don't want to be a holdout. That would be fine with me ... the more who get vaccinated, the better. Out of the four scenarios, I see this one as the most likely to play out.
Scenario #3: The Vaccine Passport Scenario
Biden has already made it clear that he's not going to force these vaccines nor the passports on us. He's going to leave it to the private sector to decide. And I think governors can still institute their own mandates.
I fully support the idea of instituting vaccine passports, whether it be a governor's executive order or a business's choice, as I believe it would help to expedite going back to normal more quickly without worrying so much about infecting the unvaccinated and inviting mutations and so on.
Newer studies are showing good evidence that 12 days after a full vaccination, we receive near-full protection from COVID19 and most of the current variants -- even stronger protection than one gets from recovering from the virus itself. And asymptomatic transfer may even be reduced significantly.
I personally think masks aren't as necessary for the fully vaccinated person, but there does remain around a 10% chance of still getting a mild case of the virus and possibly infecting someone else, so it would probably still be prudent to go ahead and continue wearing masks until base active counts get to be low again -- which won't be long if most of us get vaccinated.
In this vaccine passport scenario, it's likely that many of the resisters may get the vaccine so they can more freely get around, though they may feel that their freedoms are taken away. But then they'll be fine once everything goes back to normal. However, I place a low probability on this whole scenario, as Biden doesn't have enough gumption to push the vaccine passports on a national level, and I think there will be too much resistance. For example, Governor DeSantis has already banned all vaccine passports in Florida, even as that state is starting their next surge.
Scenario #4: The Drag-It-Out Worst Case Scenario
I really hope it doesn't come to this. If enough people resist the vaccines and we don't hit the desired herd immunity, then this thing is going to drag out even longer -- past July 4th -- past Thanksgiving -- past Christmas -- into 2022 and beyond. This is because mutations will continue to pop up, requiring further booster shots from updated vaccines -- maybe every 6 months or so. We'll see much more reinfections occurring.
But here's the catch ... the ones dying will mostly be among those who still refuse to be vaccinated. And there will come the time when they finally figure it out ... "We're dying. Okay -- we'll take the shot." I don't want to see my friends end this way. I also don't want to see this thing linger much longer.
So, let's take a closer look at some of the concerns that keep popping up.
I don't want to lose my freedoms.
I have never seen it this way and probably never will. And as I mentioned above, Biden isn't going to push it.
We are all free to choose, but we don't get to choose the consequences.
If we refuse the shot and die from COVID19 complications, we would have exercised our freedoms, but we would also have lost access to the rest of our lives. Further, if we refuse the shot, we could end up infecting another person who ends up dying -- thus curtailing the freedoms of that person.
Most people who get the vaccine get a sore arm, and then ... well ... they get back to their own lives, fully capable of enjoying their freedoms.
The FDA hasn't approved these vaccines.
This is true. It is being allowed only on an emergency basis. In fact, they're still doing tests to determine long-time efficacy and to determine any further long-term effects. This is also the first time mRNA vaccines have been allowed to be administered to the public (Pfizer and Moderna). This is amazing new technology, which could have tremendous applications against other viruses once it's proven to be safe enough. And no ... they do not change our DNA. The mRNA fragments don't even enter our cells -- a fact that may make this the safest type of vaccine ever created.
Being on emergency basis, the US continues to monitor results arising from the three approved vaccines: Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson&Johnson. So far, side effects and deaths are few -- with deaths being as low as compared to "not getting the vaccine." Experience is strongly supporting the fact that these vaccines are safe. (Though -- as I said before -- some people with underlying conditions may be more susceptible to adverse side effects -- if you suspect this, do your research -- talk to your doctor.)
These shots have aborted fetus tissue.
This is not quite true. Though, all three approved vaccines (and many of the other vaccinations) make use of cell cultures grown from three specific aborted fetuses from the 60s-80s. These cells are used either in the testing or in the production process, but as far as I can tell, these cells aren't in the final products. These same culture cells have also already been used around the world for decades for other medical purposes ... and yes ... they really do grow from the same three fetuses. No new abortions are needed to create these vaccines. If you want more details, you can read more in my earlier blog entry.
Or you can consider that the Pope and the leader of my church, Pres. Nelson, both of whom are fully aware of the existence of these cell cultures, have approved these vaccines, have received these vaccines, and have urged us all to get vaccinated. (Click the following pictures for more information.)
But I really like Trump, so I'm not getting the shot.
I doubt that any of you are saying this exactly, but I do notice that most people resisting the vaccine are on the conservative side, and most are avid Trump supporters. And sometimes it seems to me that they choose to fight the vaccine because it's one way to show their love and support for Trump. Or it may simply be that they pick up this sentiment visiting Parler or other conservative-leaning platforms.
If this really is the one thing holding you back, then please listen to Trump. These vaccines that we have now represent one thing Trump has done right in this pandemic. It is Trump's legacy, which is saving lives today.
Trump received at least the first shot of the vaccine in January. At CPAC, he urged everybody to get the shot.
And Trump emphasized this again in a recent phone interview on Fox News.
Trump wants you to be vaccinated -- he wants his legacy to be a success. Please don't let him down.
My final testimony
And lastly, I'd like to present my own personal religious testimony, Christian to other religionists. I usually like to keep these posts agnostic so all readers can benefit, but I feel that what I wish to say sincerely here will reach many of you.
You may remember during the beginning parts of the pandemic, right after lockdowns were urged in nearly every state -- there was much prayer and fasting for the epidemic to end. Pres. Nelson, of my own church, invited people from around the world to join in prayer and fasting on 4/10/2020 (Good Friday) -- exactly one year ago today. He asked us to pray for an end of the pandemic and that our lives would be normalized.
And many people of many faiths joined in the prayer on Good Friday -- either by invitation or independently. In my city of Winston-Salem, my wife and I watched a broadcast from our city government -- an hour of prayer and reflection from several religious leaders, including Christian, Muslim, Buddhist, Wiccan, and other religions.
I really believed something big would come out of this unification in prayer -- some miracle cure or other event that would save lives. But we would yet have another 500,000+ deaths in our nation alone. Was it in vain?
I've have only recently come to discover that something big did happen in April 2020 -- shortly after all the prayer and fasting. The first version of the first two vaccines to be approved in the US, Moderna and Pfizer, was finished and clinical trials began -- yes -- in April. Johnson&Johnson followed afterwards with trials beginning in July. And these vaccines would be among the most effective vaccines ever made -- as good as if not better than our current shots for measles and chicken pox. These vaccines put our flu vaccines to shame. It did take a while for adequate testing before being released to the public, but we have them now.
I believe these vaccines were a direct answer to all of our united fasting and prayer from different religions. God listened and provided us the key to stopping more death, normalizing our lives, and being healthy again. He had inspired the doctors and scientists to create very effective vaccines. He knows the count of our days and has let us know that He intends for us to live longer -- that it is not yet our time to die.
So, I happily choose to accept God's gift, and take this vaccine so that it may extend my life, and save the lives of others, and help bring us back to normality. I am not going to throw away the shot that He has provided.
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