Introducing the Lunch Tracker

A quick announcement, here. In response to a series of predictions I've made, I have promised a lunch for my friends in Alpharetta, GA in four years if my predictions concerning Trump do not come to pass. This Lunch Tracker will help us keep track the predictions.

Will I owe lunch? We'll find out ...

Trump Wins Again! Now What?

To be honest, I didn't believe that this would happen again, but here we are. Trump wins again, and this time, with a popular vote majority! Even with everything he has done in the past, and some questionable tasks he promises to do in the near future, the voice of the nation has spoken, and it's Trump -- again.

So what comes next? I'll start with my personal plans, and then I'll branch out to give advice to both my liberal and conservative friends.

What Am I Going to Do?

Overall, my plan is to continue doing exactly what I've been doing the last four years. As I've told others recently, I'm having a blast enjoying the freedoms I already have. I'm living the American Dream, and I'm actively working toward my first major breakthrough, and now it's not just a matter of "if," but rather a matter of "when." And most of it is waiting for me to finally get my act together. I'm enjoying life despite all the hardships around us, and I hope that I can continue to do so -- that I don't lose any of my freedoms any time soon, and that I don't get cancelled because of my political beliefs.

With Trump's win, none of that has changed. As I will explain in an upcoming video on the 7 Habits on my "Always Be Better" YouTube channel, I realize that the vast majority of what's going on in this world is outside of my circle of influence. And until I can expand the circle, I'm better off focusing on the items where I do have control. But why write this post? Because I already have some influence, and I do have a small following of people who listen to what I have to say. (Of course, you all can help expand my influence and tell all your friends.)

Some of my long-time followers may remember back in 2016 when I tried a week-long experiment to like Trump. In the end, I came to realize: nope, I don't like him. But I learned some very valuable lessons. I came to understand why my conservative friends like him and that they are not idiots or "deplorables" or "trash."

After Trump won in 2016 and before he took office, I proclaimed on social media that I was going "give Trump a chance." I even tried to give him the benefit of a doubt when I made my list of predictions in 2017 (most of which came true). So -- yeah, I gave him a chance, but it wasn't long before I started complaining. 

This time around, I know what he's capable of. When Trump won in 2016, I was like: "That's interesting." When he lost in 2020, I was all: "What a major relief!" And in 2024 I'm currently like: "Oh crap." Trump has already had his chance. 

As far as I'm concerned, he lost all of my support in late 2020 when he tried to steal the election. He has never repented, and practically the entire GOP continues to support him in this claim without even the smallest shred of evidence that systemic voting fraud occurred in 2020.

Though, I do have a shred of hope that Trump will be nice this time. As he said in his acceptance speech, "no more rallies" which I think he was meaning to say that all the hyperbole and violent rhetoric would stop, and he would now work toward unifying and healing America. Not even once in that speech did he indicate that he'd be going after his political opponents, except for possibly a cryptic "I'm going to keep all of my promises." If Trump plays nice and actually uses his powers and talents for good, I'd be pleasantly surprised, and he may yet become the next Reagan.

But who am I kidding? The actuary in me says: I gave him a chance. I fully expect him to be exactly what he was before. There isn't much I can do about anything, but I'm going to have to set up contingencies to prepare for the worst. And I will always have my words -- for as long as they're allowed to be spoken and written. I can continue my "Always Be Better" series to help people learn the tricks and tips for better living and how to combat brainwashing, and so on. And I will continue to post here -- expressing any of my future complaints for those who care to listen.

However, at the same time, I fully accept Trump as our 47th President, because of ... the Constitution. And I will continue to respect the office. As long as Trump is "nice" he will have my cooperation. And as long as he does terrible things, he'll have my complaints. I realize the only way he can be removed from office is through impeachment, and I will not advocate any other methods of removal.

My Advice to Liberals

Be smart.

I understand your surprise, anger, despair, and disappointment. I am likewise going through those five stages of grief. Kamala represented hope, unity, progress, and working together. She had planned to fill her cabinet with a mixture of liberal and conservative leaders. She could have helped to further disperse the growing contention building between the two Parties. But now Trump has won, and he will have both the Senate and the House (sorry Pelosi, but Trump has this). He will now be able to fill his cabinet with his most loyal subjects, a veritable clown show. And scary times lie ahead.

But there are still some checks and balances in place. If you guys are smart, you will study those options available to you. The best defense right now lies in the judicial branch ... mostly in the lower courts. Even the Supreme Court could rule in your favor on some items -- for example, they would be unlikely to support an executive order to repeal the 14th Amendment (which can only be done through the amendment process).

Another strategy is to do what the GOP has done for the past four years: educate the masses. The GOP did this by coining high inflation as "Bidenomics," even though most of it was a big lie and a misunderstanding of what really caused high inflation. But it worked. This is the ONE issue that pushed Trump to the win just now.

And you can do the same now. Democrats, unite: come up with a message that resonates with the general public. Aim for the midterm elections. If you're successful, you will have the Senate and the House in two years, and you know what happens within a month after that. Whether you like it or not, this really is the fastest strategy to remove Trump from office. 

But first, y'all need to have a big internal look at yourselves. You need to understand why practically all non-Democrats don't like you. Heck, even I don't like you. Else I'd already be registered as Democrat. I'm also very annoyed that you guys couldn't beat a convicted felon who destroys everything he touches. A testament that yeah ... most people don't like your party.

For me it's the fake "inclusion" thing mixed with the hatred of conservative people. As long as you hold on to this, the GOP will keep on winning.

I was just reading today about several Democrats just now won their races in states where Trump had won. And most of these Democrats ran on platforms that contained core GOP concepts. And I think therein lies the secret of your success. You must realize that these conservative people and many independents have concerns. You ignore these concerns at your own peril. You need to quickly get in touch with those concerns and figure out how to respond to them. Do that, and you will win in two years.

Also: a hint. Please don't do stupid things. Here are two examples:

#1) Don't protest Trump's election. This happened back in late 2016 before he took office, and it's happening again now in several cities. I've said this before and I'll say it again: you're only protesting the Constitution itself. I mean: what exactly are you trying to accomplish in these protests? There now exists no legal path to stop Trump from taking office without tearing up the Constitution. The delegates will be selected, they will be sent, the votes will be counted, and they will be certified -- and you really want to stop that process as spelled out in the Constitution?

These election protests are ineffective, dangerous, and outright stupid. If you want to win in two years, this is not the path you should take.

#2) Stop with the voter fraud allegations. I'm sincerely surprised to hear these. It's nowhere near as prevalent what the GOP tried to do 4 years ago, but still, the principle is the same. If you condemned the GOP for trying this tactic, wouldn't it make sense that you should also not be trying it yourselves? I really don't want to have to hear about this "voter fraud" thing every single election.

And finally, one last piece of advice. Have you ever been on a two-lane country road behind a slow person, and no dotted lines for passing? I know -- it can be frustrating. You've got that appointment to get to, and this guy is going 5 miles under the speed limit. What tactic is the best way to get him to speed up?

This happens to me more often than I would like, here in Winston-Salem. And I've found that the best tactic is to hang back. Don't let them know that you're in a hurry. More times than not, they will speed up naturally on their own. Maybe it isn't as fast as I want to go, but when we get to a passing lane, or it opens up to 4 lanes -- that's when I make my move ... vroom!

But when I instead get angry and ride their tails, 99% of the time, they SLOW DOWN. And then I'm in a much more terrible situation. When I get to that passing lane or 4-lane area, they're likely to SPEED UP and not let me pass.

I see the same with Trump. He's narcissistic. If he thinks the people love him, he's more likely to be "nice." The Dems being out of control are like the car stuck behind Trump, who is impeding progress. If you signal to him early what your intentions are, he will fight, and he will definitely NOT be nice. And when the time comes for you to make your move, he'll already be prepared and he will thwart it.

If on the other hand, you hold back and "work with him" as both Biden and Harris have been suggesting, then I think you will be in a better situation. And in two years, you can make your move, and bam!

Be smart.

My Advice to Conservatives

Remember.

First, I'll congratulate you. I know you're happy and full of hope after four years of losses. I know, because I was full of hope four years ago when Biden won over Trump. I thought that the prospects of civil war had been instantly dispersed, that the GOP would reinvent itself to eschew Trump and return to what they used to be, and the world would be healed. But here I am four years later, disappointed. Some of Biden's missteps sabotaged what he was trying to accomplish, and the GOP doubled down on Trump. I have many fears for the future of our country. The upcoming civil war is back on, though I hope it can still yet be dispersed.

So, we've switched places. Right now you're extremely happy. Enjoy it. It was a good win -- fair and square. The people have spoken.

One thing I've noticed is that most of my immediate conservative friends are reaching out to me with kindness and concern. This is most likely due to the massive amount of personal capital I've built among my friends. They also know how I still lean conservative, and they see me as just being misguided. They tell me that in four years, I will be pleasantly surprised. There will be prosperity, people working together, the nation healed, etc., etc. It will be like Reagan again.

So I thank my conservative friends for treating me with kindness, and I will try to return that kindness. No matter what happens in the next four years, I hope we can retain that kindness -- though I will continue to have enjoyable conversations with you all.

But to let you know: my concerns about Trump have not gone away just because he won. The economist in me still maintains that Trump was the worst choice for battling inflation. His planned tariffs and desire to destroy the independence of the national reserve will very likely increase inflation, and possibly even introduce America for the very first time to the joys of hyperinflation, like what happened a couple of years ago in Hungary when Trump's friend Orban got their banks to lower interest rates during the Covid19 recovery.

The economist in me also wonders in general: how can we end up with another Reagan when many of Trump's policies go against Reagan's core principles?

I fully expect that in four years, many people will regret having voted for Trump. I think that these next four years will make our history books, and many will say, "I didn't see this coming." A few months ago, I made some predictions at the bottom of this post. If you compare them to my 2017 predictions, you'll see that my 2024 predictions are considerably more dire.

When I posted these predictions to my conservative friends, I went as far as to say: if these items do not come to pass, I will be happy, and I will buy you all lunch in four years (2028/9-ish). And so, I will want you all to remember what I've predicted. Later this week, I will post my "lunch tracker." It will start with "I owe you lunch," but as each event occurs, I will subtract points, and should it fall under a certain tolerance, I will no longer owe lunch.

So, I'm asking you to remember. Maybe you'll get a lunch. But, should these predicted items come to pass, I will ask you, my conservative friends, to reconsider your position: is Trump still the path you want to go on? And then a time may come when you will have to decide whether or not to jump off of the Trump Train and help get the country back on track.

In four years, I will be more than willing to say I was wrong. Will you be willing to do the same?

Remember.

Analyzing Trump's Agenda

It’s not the man, but the policies we need to look at.

That’s what many are saying these days. So, YES! Let’s look at those policies. I’ve got you covered. I’m going to take Trump’s 20-point platform from his website and perform an analysis.

At the same time, the Democrats have been attacking Project 2025. It’s part of Harris’ campaign, and all my friends are telling me about the dangers it holds. But here’s the thing – Trump doesn’t like it. He didn’t write it, so he’s not going to claim it. It was written by the Heritage Foundation, who saw that in 2017, Trump was unprepared in his transition into the presidency. The Heritage Foundation hoped to put together a play book that Trump could use, if he so chooses, so the transition in 2025 would be a lot smoother and accomplish more conservative priorities.

Sure – a lot of what Project 2025 says would come to pass, but there are a few points that contradict what Trump has been saying. And so, I fear that attacking Project 2025 is a big mistake. I’m concerned that many independent voters will see it as a big straw man, and decide not to vote for Harris.

Especially when we have Agenda 47. It’s like Project 2025, except it’s ALL Trump. And it’s OFFICIAL. It’s a series of videos and commentary on what he hopes to achieve as president. As expected, it’s a little sprawling, but it has videos of Trump himself making these claims, rather than some Heritage spokesperson. It also has a LOT in common with Project 2025. Further, it has ALL the parts that Trump agrees with and is missing the parts where Trump does not agree.

Project 2025 is something that MIGHT be, while Agenda 47 is what WILL be.

And it seems like a no-brainer to me. Why are the Democrats attacking Project 2025 when Agenda 47 is there front and center?

So, my post has two goals. Not only will I look at Trump’s issues, but I will also provide an example to my Democrat friends on how we can use Agenda 47 instead of Project 2025 to achieve the same goals. The 20-point agenda is heavily based on Agenda 47, and I will also add more detail from other commentary and videos in the “Agenda 47” section of his website. In other words, all of this is OFFICIAL.

And yes, this is long – do what you’d like. Scan the points, and pick your favorite ones for more details. Break it up into different reading sessions. Just make sure to catch the CONCLUSION at the very end.


1) SEAL THE BORDER AND STOP THE MIGRANT INVASION

I could write a whole article on my thoughts on immigration. In a nutshell, Trump was too harsh during his term, and Biden was too lenient. A good solution would be something in between.

The border could indeed use more securing – with innovative solutions and installments rather than an expensive, ugly, ineffective symbol. Ask the border agents what they need, and they’ll tell you. And what they need the most are more agents, which the GOP rejected late last year at the behest of Trump.

The fact that Trump is using the words “Migrant Invasion” should be a clear indicator that despite what he’s saying, he’s really concerned about reducing ALL immigration. This is typical anti-immigration rhetoric that’s been around for more than a century, historically offered by Democrat candidates, but now brought to us by Trump.

During Trump’s first term, illegal immigration did not go down, but rather up, especially in 2019. LEGAL immigration, on the other hand, went down. Trump made it harder to get through the gate, and his administration deported more green card holders and rejected more H1B1 VISAs (those who were here LEGALLY). He did this all while saying, “Come in through the gate.” This only increased the incentives to cross over illegally.

In general, there is no “invasion.” Mexico and Canada are our friends – not enemies. Words matter here, and I’m not interested in supporting a platform that’s all about closing the gates.


2) CARRY OUT THE LARGEST DEPORTATION OPERATION IN AMERICAN HISTORY

I fully expect this to be a huge humanitarian crisis. And expensive, too. Agenda 47 allows for the use of the military (probably the National Guard) to help facilitate the move. At times, Trump had indicated that there would be migrant camps, but more recently he says that immigrants would be moved out too fast.

Trump plans to institute a 10% tariff on all foreign goods to help pay for this effort. So, we would all flip the bill – not Mexico. Also, in areas that rely heavily on migrant work, local economies could be severely disrupted.

As in similar operations in the past, legal US citizens are likely to be deported as well.

In a worst-case scenario, if this operation is botched big time, it could even help trigger a war with long-time allies.

In short, I do not trust Trump in handling such an operation.


3) END INFLATION, AND MAKE AMERICA AFFORDABLE AGAIN

I would love to see the end of our latest inflation epidemic. Hmm … that’s an interesting word: epidemic, and yes – the biggest reason behind inflation today is COVID19 recovery. We economist types knew it was coming as early as 1Q2020 when we first started building “recovery” inflation models. There are other more recent events that affect inflation such as the Ukraine War.

Items that have contributed very little to inflation include the COVID19 relief packages – which small effects have long ago been felt and passed. Since mid-2022 we’ve had a relatively low inflation rate compared to the rest of the world. If anything, Biden hasn’t done much of anything to exacerbate inflation, such as how Orban’s meddling in Hungary caused hyperinflation.

Regardless of who gets in the White House, inflation is on its way down. Trump could only cause it to resurge with excessively high tariffs and meddling with the Reserve Bank (which is basically the mistake Orban made – forcing a lowering of interest rates instead of raising them).

In Agenda 47, Trump calls upon the doctrine of impoundment to help bring down federal spending. This is where the executive branch can force all agencies to clamp down on expenses. It something that sounds good on paper.

But consider this … in every single year Trump was in office, the annual deficit INCREASED (including adjusting for COVID19). I don’t have any confidence that Trump would do any better in 2025.

In general, how much debt the government holds doesn’t translate much into inflation and prices at home. But if we don’t get the total deficit under wraps, our nation’s credit could experience more downgrades, and yeah – that would end up increasing our prices at home, as well as lots of other bad things.

Clamping down on expenses is a good thing, but I don’t think any plan to save our deficit can be serious without a plan to increase revenues.


4) MAKE AMERICA THE DOMINANT ENERGY PRODUCER IN THE WORLD, BY FAR!

I’m not sure exactly what this means. Before I attack this one, I need to establish a core concept that relates to this point and several others.

Ronald Reagan was a strong proponent of free world trade, including the idea of specialization. That is, each country has its own strengths and weaknesses, much of which is determined by natural resources and unique talents. Instead of each nation being experts in EVERYTHING, it’s more efficient for each country to concentrate on its strengths, and sell that to the other countries for everyone’s mutual benefit. And in areas where countries are weak, it’s more efficient to purchase those goods and services from other countries that can provide it more cheaply. This idea of globalization was front and center of Reagan’s foreign policy.

We already experience this on a smaller scale. As we enter adulthood, we choose a profession and concentrate on that, while other people choose other professions. I went with actuary, economics, programming, math, and music. And sure, I could do a whole lot of other things, but my time is short, and I have money. I can pay others to do the things I choose NOT to do, so I have more time to do the things in which I excel. If I want my car fixed, I go to a car mechanic, not a doctor. Likewise, if I want my computer fixed, I’m not going to take it to a tax expert. That would be inefficient.

In other words: everyone benefits when we go to those who can produce a certain item or service cheaper than we can.

So, why again do we WANT to be the dominant energy producer? I picture Trump visiting the U. A. E. where everyone is rich and living like kings, and Trump saying: “I want this for the US.”

But aren’t we already a dominant energy producer? Well – that depends on how you define things. Currently we lead in oil production – though only because we have more land. Other countries still might be able to produce it more cheaply. Thanks to the uprise of fracking we have quickly become dominant in natural gas production. If we consider all “primary energy” then China leads, which makes sense – they have a lot of land and natural resources. With today’s trends, there’s no way we can catch up with China – and why should we? Note: primary energy is a measure of the raw energy produced before being translated into electricity or gasoline or other products we end-users use. It is the best stat in comparing production and consumption between different countries.

Should we shoot for energy independence? Sounds like a good idea. But again, it depends on how you define this. One definition could be: our primary energy production is greater than our consumption. That is, we produce enough for our needs and export the rest to other countries. Or in other words: a net exporter of energy.

By this definition, we’re already there. We’ve been independent (net exporters) since 2019 thanks to better technology and fracking. Also – green energy production makes up 9% of our total production and continues to rise.

But what I hear from most conservatives today is that energy independence means we don’t buy ANY energy from other countries. Reagan would call this a bunch of crock. Why would we cut ourselves off from the world market? The only reason we’re buying and selling is that we’re maximizing our economic benefit. We sell the stuff we produce cheaply, and we buy the stuff others produce cheaply. Reagan gives big thumbs up. If we were to cut this off – we hurt ourselves and energy prices would rise in the US.

But hey – if we truly want to show the world total energy dominance, then support nuclear fusion power. We could have it in a decade, and it would be a game changer. Whoever gets it first will be dominant.

If Trumps does what I think he would, it would not help us significantly, and the inefficiencies he’d create could make things worse.


5) STOP OUTSOURCING, AND TURN THE UNITED STATES INTO A MANUFACTURING SUPERPOWER

I won’t say much here, because I’ve already covered specialization. Sometimes outsourcing helps with costs, and sometimes it doesn’t. I wouldn’t want the government to take away this option (that is, making outsourcing illegal). Should we concentrate on manufacturing? Well – we ARE good at it. Perhaps we could take some measures to encourage this. I’d prefer that we concentrate more on producing more STEAM thinkers so we don’t get left behind in the technology world. (BTW, “A” in STEAM stands for Art.)


6) LARGE TAX CUTS FOR WORKERS, AND NO TAX ON TIPS!

I’ve already mentioned: revenue is a big problem for the US. Trump already gave us a large tax cut – mainly among the wealthy – but he didn’t curb spending, and it resulted in an annual deficit that increased each year. As much as I would love further tax cuts, I think fixing revenue should be a priority. I didn’t get much of a cut in 2017, but a lot of my rich friends did. They can pay their fair share.

The thing about tips is interesting to include in a concise policy statement. I also think it’s hilarious how the GOP goes crazy when Harris says she’s also going to pursue no tax on tips. Bigger fish, y’all. Bigger fish.


7) DEFEND OUR CONSTITUTION, OUR BILL OF RIGHTS, AND OUR FUNDAMENTAL FREEDOMS, INCLUDING FREEDOM OF SPEECH, FREEDOM OF RELIGION, AND THE RIGHT TO KEEP AND BEAR ARMS

I’m entirely on board with this. Our Constitution has worked for two and a half centuries, and I think we need to keep it going. However, it’s the interesting interpretations of the Constitution by Trump and others in the current GOP that has me concerned.

Freedom of religion seems to be more of a “Freedom for Christians and yes … I guess Jews too, kinda” while other religions become more oppressed – which would send us back to the situation England was in when we left in the first place.

I don’t see how the GOP can call for the Freedom of Speech and ban books in the same breath. It seems that free speech on campus is great until it isn’t. Trump also often threatens the press, wanting to open outlets up more for frivolous libel claims. (And people do know that news outlets can already be sued for libel if lying has actually occurred … right? I can’t think of an outlet that hasn’t been sued.)

I’m not sure what is meant by “fundamental freedoms,” but it does seem that in the past four years, it’s been the GOP-led state legislatures that have taken away several freedoms from individuals.

And I’m not sure if the right to keep and bear arms is meant to include efficient killing machines. I’ve heard the arguments as to why we need these guns for our protection … but it seems like we’re certainly expending a lot of energy trying to protect us from ourselves more than we are from foreign or other domestic threats. I think an open discussion is warranted from both sides. This whole zero-tolerance stance on both sides is getting us nowhere.

Also, points #5, #9, #16, and #18 (and possibly others) seem to involve a hint of several of us losing some kinds of freedom. In short, I don’t think I trust the Trump and the GOP right now to “protect” our fundamental freedoms.


8) PREVENT WORLD WAR THREE, RESTORE PEACE IN EUROPE AND IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AND BUILD A GREAT IRON DOME MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD OVER OUR ENTIRE COUNTRY -- ALL MADE IN AMERICA

I also don’t want World War Three, but honestly I just don’t trust Trump on this. Sure, he brokered some peace deals in the Middle East. But at the same time, during his four-year term, he weakened our nation’s political standing in the world stage – a natural consequence of his “America First” policies. When we damage our relationship with allies, become friends with totalitarians, and let them oppress neighboring democracies, it will certainly give MORE power to those who actually want WWIII.

Reagan would not approve of the current GOP platform, as it would go against his pro-liberal-international-order to stand up to protect other democracies from tyrants. He would blast the whole “America First” approach to foreign policy. He would condemn Trump for praising Putin during the Ukraine War.

As for the Iron Dome idea: it’s great for Israel, but doesn’t make sense for the US. Israel is a small country surrounded by threats. The Dome is good at handling short-range missiles. The US, on the hand, is a large country surrounded by allies. It would be expensive, ineffective, and a distraction from other more real threats. Like his ugly wall, it would just be a symbol that wouldn’t really do anything.


9) END THE WEAPONIZATION OF GOVERNMENT AGAINST THE AMERICAN PEOPLE

I’ll say just this: if I’m a crook, a conman, and I’m trying to get away from my prosecutors, what do you think I would say as they’re coming after me? Yeah, that’s right – “These agencies are being weaponized against me.” While Occam’s Razor tells me: “No, if you do the crime, these agencies are just doing their job. No one is above the law.”

Either way, it shouldn’t be lost on anyone, that as Agenda 47 addresses this concern, it proposes increasing the presidential powers to fire “rogue” agency employees, and other measures to ensure that these agencies stay in line.

Trump has also proposed using the DOJ to go after Cheney, Kinzinger, and other political opponents. In other words, ACTUALLY weaponizing our government. I guess it’s okay for Trump to do it if the goal is to dismantle that “Deep State”?


10) STOP THE MIGRANT CRIME EPIDEMIC, DEMOLISH THE FOREIGN DRUG CARTELS, CRUSH GANG VIOLENCE, AND LOCK UP VIOLENT OFFENDERS

What migrant crime epidemic? I hear a couple of pieces of anecdotal evidence, but the overall numbers don’t support the idea that migrants cause more crime than we natives do. In fact, per capita, the reverse is true. Looking back at a couple of centuries of data, this is usually the case with illegal aliens – they tend to be careful so they don’t draw attention to themselves and get deported. Plus, overall crimes numbers are trending downward. Anecdotal evidence makes for great news stories and supporting political talking points, but data is data and it says we’re doing better than we’ve had before. In other words: this campaign point is largely a straw man.

Nevertheless, it's always good to enforce the law, and lock up violent offenders, but I don’t trust Trump to do this effectively. He did a terrible job handling the BLM riots in 2020, and I don’t expect anything new in 2025.


11) REBUILD OUR CITIES, INCLUDING WASHINGTON DC, MAKING THEM SAFE, CLEAN, AND BEAUTIFUL AGAIN.

This is an interesting point, considering that cities are usually governed by states and not the federal government. Agenda 47’s Quantum Leap program suggests building up to ten Freedom Cities on underdeveloped federal land. Trump claims that people living there would be ensured the freedoms mentioned in Point #7 (which freedoms we already have), and there would be flying cars, affordable homes and a car for every family, and so on. I personally wonder if there will also be Trump Steaks and education at Trump University. Though, I think a city built on federal land would still be susceptible to its state’s laws.

Agenda 47 also proclaims a challenge to mayors and governors for already-existing cities to similarly clean them up and build great monuments for true American heroes. Here, Trump can only challenge, because again … out of his jurisdiction.

I have in mind the perfect futuristic city, and this isn’t quite it.


12) STRENGTHEN AND MODERNIZE OUR MILITARY, MAKING IT, WITHOUT QUESTION, THE STRONGEST AND MOST POWERFUL IN THE WORLD

We’re already there, though Russia and China are getting closer. Is Trump the best person to continue building up the military? He had a chance in his first term, and there wasn’t much of a noticeable increase. In fact, he ended up using money meant for the Pentagon in building up parts of his wall. Trump also exited no wars, nor entered into new ones. And Agenda 47 has several different hints of using the military on US soil (though in some cases, it may be referring to the National Guard). And Trump had often referred to the armed services as “his” forces. This concerns me somewhat.


13) KEEP THE U.S. DOLLAR AS THE WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY

This would be great, but we don’t get to decide this. “America First” would undoubtedly weaken the value of the U.S. dollar, and put our status in jeopardy. Trump’s proposed tariffs, which would be paid by mostly us, could cause further inflation and weaken the value of the dollar. Though not part of Agenda 47 (as far as I can tell), if Trump listens to his advisers who want to purposefully devalue the dollar, then yes, we’re going to lose this status as the world’s reserve currency. We could soon see the Euro overtake the Dollar in this status.


14) FIGHT FOR AND PROTECT SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE WITH NO CUTS, INCLUDING NO CHANGES TO THE RETIREMENT AGE

Not much to say here – except, isn’t it usually the GOP who calls for Social Security/Medicare reform? Eventually, we’re going to have to find out how to pay for it all a decade from now when the program fails to be actuarially solvent. One battle at a time, I suppose.


15) CANCEL THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MANDATE AND CUT COSTLY AND BURDENSOME REGULATIONS

In general, I would support less regulation. But after a decade of alarming rising temperatures followed by these last two years that have been even more alarming, I don’t think we can ignore environmental concerns.

Trump says that climate change isn’t our concern – that China is the number one polluter. However, if we look at carbon emissions per person, the US has almost double the emissions. In 2022, the US had 15 metric tons per person, while China had 8. So, yes – it is our bag, baby. China is working hard to continue lowering emissions, and we can do the same. Surely we would want those Freedom Cities to be free of excessive pollution.

However, I do understand, and I’m also skeptical of the electric vehicle mandate. It seems that for it to be a viable option for everyone, the technology still needs to be improved: faster charging times and longer travel distances. It’s better than it was 10 years ago, but I don’t think we’re there yet. I think we’ll eventually figure it out.


16) CUT FEDERAL FUNDING FOR ANY SCHOOL PUSHING CRITICAL RACE THEORY, RADICAL GENDER IDEOLOGY, AND OTHER INAPPROPRIATE RACIAL, SEXUAL, OR POLITICAL CONTENT ON OUR CHILDREN

Of all the 20 points, I believe this one most aptly captures the stupidity and incompetence that has infected the entire GOP. [Note that I am referring to the leaders – not my conservative friends who vote for them.] And I don’t say that lightly. It’s a HUGE reason why I left the GOP in 2016, and I see no sign of returning anytime soon. 2023 was the least-productive House session in decades, and it’s largely because of stupid nonsense like Point #16.

CRT is a topic that was never taught anywhere except as an elective or required only in certain related majors at certain colleges. But yet it has become a buzzword that most GOP leaders use to rile up the conservative masses. And the main concern? “We don’t want our children to feel bad at school.”

Look – I know schools teach things I don’t agree with. That’s why we have frequent conversations with our children so they can have more understanding. And I get that young minds are impressionable – but still, the best remedy is – talk to your children.

As a young student, I remember feeling bad when we learned about racism and some of the terrible things that happened in the US. Of course, I knew I wasn’t the one who committed those terrible acts, but it helped me to resolve not to do them when I got older, and also to help others not to do it.

I also remember learning things I didn’t agree with … and I dealt with it. Surely we could have a little more faith in the ability of our children to handle these things.

I see Point #16 as a way to try and rewrite the history books so that those who practice these racist and anti-tolerant acts can avoid having to feel bad about it.


17) KEEP MEN OUT OF WOMEN'S SPORTS

What’s this doing here? This doesn't appear anywhere in my list of concerns. I get that we should have an open discussion – how do we handle women who have a possibly unfair testosterone advantage but still want to play sports? I don’t know if I trust politicians to decide this one. Next!


18) DEPORT PRO-HAMAS RADICALS AND MAKE OUR COLLEGE CAMPUSES SAFE AND PATRIOTIC AGAIN

I’d like college campuses to be safe. Also, I’d prefer for them to be places where people can openly disagree. Oh – there’s that free speech thing again. Did you know in 2019 Trump signed an order pushing for free speech at all college campuses? What if that speech makes campuses not safe, such as antisemitism or anti-Muslim rhetoric? Anyone else see this clash between points #7 and #18?

Irony aside, I do think a solution exists where one can have that promised freedom of speech AND also air out concerns. What concerns me here is that Point #18 seems so one-sided. I get that Hamas is an evil terrorist organization, but what exactly constitutes a pro-Hamas radical? What about pro-Israeli-settler radicals? If one speaks up about all the innocents being killed, does that make them worthy of deportation?

I should mention here, that these people considered for deportation are aliens who are here legally – green cards or educational VISAs. To deport them on religious grounds alone is simply unconstitutional. You remember Trump’s first travel ban that got rejected by the Judicial Branch because of its religious test – and how it wasn’t accepted until the religious test was taken out? Dang that First Amendment and the Freedom of [ALL] Religions. Likewise, Trump will be unable to deport legal aliens solely on the fact that they are pro-Hamas, Muslim, or a member of any other religion, without seriously damaging our Constitution and the validity of our First Amendment.

And make our colleges patriotic again? What does this mean? Agenda 47 promises to create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values and support the American Way of Life, and punish any who weaponize or nationalize civics education – whatever that means. This also reeks of countless lawsuits. Maybe I’ll go get my popcorn.

If one must sacrifice their own beliefs to become a teacher, or sign allegiances to Trump in order to get access to certain benefits, what does that mean for the rest of us and our freedoms?


19) SECURE OUR ELECTIONS, INCLUDING SAME DAY VOTING, VOTER IDENTIFICATION, PAPER BALLOTS, AND PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP

Okay. I want secure elections as much as the next guy. And 2020 was pretty much the most secure election we’ve had. Don’t believe me? Just ask Chris Krebs. That was the guy that Trump put in charge of increasing voting security, and well – he did a very good job. We know this because every single recount – automated and hand-counted – confirmed results in all 50 states. Several audits also confirmed the same results, including the highly GOP-biased Cyber Ninjas audit in Arizona.

BTW, did you know that most Republicans don’t realize that Cyber Ninjas found about 360 more votes for Biden, and that their report on September 24, 2021 states they did not find any proof of fraud to support a stolen election? I still get tons of messages today about how that audit found so many issues (turned out they just didn’t understand Arizona law).

I also still get several messages about the Georgia GOP reporting serious lapses of protocol in the 2020 election. But what people don’t seem to understand is that while some of those allegations might be true, there were already redundancies in place that kicked in to make sure that each vote was counted accurately. This was all confirmed and validated by the hand recount of ballots. If there were any issues, it would have been uncovered.

My concern is that over the last four years, in response to the Trump’s failure to overturn the results, the GOP in several battleground states have passed laws to make it easier for Trump to succeed this year. Many GOP states have decided to drop ERIC, a non-partisan national tool that is very good at identifying fraud. And some of those states have tried to replicate ERIC with their own database, but are failing because they don’t have access to national data. So, if someone votes twice in two of those states in 2024, it will be much harder to find.

The laws that were recently passed in Georgia also further erode the security of their elections. It allows one county to hold off on certifying results if it perceives shenanigans in another county. In other words, if Trump calls asking for 12,000 votes, officials might actually be able to comply this time around – just pick a county and don’t certify those results.

I do not trust anyone in the GOP at this time to head election security. Occam’s Razor has me seeing voter suppression, and I don’t like it.


20) UNITE OUR COUNTRY BY BRINGING IT TO NEW AND RECORD LEVELS OF SUCCESS

I don’t see how a leader can unite a country who mocks, vilifies, and threatens others with jail time. It is just morally impossible. He failed to unite in his first term, and he’ll fail again. He is not the leader I am looking for.


CONCLUSIONS

I do not like Trump’s policies, and I do not like the direction the GOP has gone. If Trump wins, I sincerely fear for our country and our Constitution. Agenda 47 is clear that Trump will try to increase his presidential power and do terrible things to certain groups of people. I fear that my freedoms may be taken away solely on the grounds that I disagree.

I’m saddened that I’m having to express these ideas. I wonder what has become of our humanity and our capacity to help and love each other. I wonder why so many people are more than willing to lash out at certain groups of people, as if they believe that’s the only way to be happy. I wonder why so many people choose a representative who spews hate every time he speaks. I wonder why many can’t see how much he botched during his first term because of … well … his ego, and his lack of experience and understanding of how the Constitution works.

I wonder: why do we even have to have this discussion today? 20 years ago, this 20-point agenda would have been condemned by both the GOP and the Democrats – and with prejudice. What have we become? Why can’t we go back to having reasonable conversations on political matters?

I’m also concerned that Harris isn’t going to win. Her campaign seems to think she’s got this in the bag, but the campaign is suffering from missteps, such as going after Project 2025 instead of Agenda 47. She’s going to lose the independent voters, and I’m hitting my forehead. Leave it to the Democrats to lose yet another easily-winnable race.

To Trump supporters, I say: I do not like his policies. While I may not hate Trump, I do despise his policies.

To my liberal friends, I say: please commence attacking Agenda 47 instead of Project 2025, and I promise you will have better results.

Yes -- I'm Voting Democrat This Year

Many of my conservative friends ask me: "Do you regret voting for Biden?" or "Why would anyone still vote for him?" If you'd like to know and understand the answers, keep on reading. Just keep in mind ... I've listened to the many stories and arguments of my conservative friends, and I've strived to understand them, and I totally get why they want to vote for Trump. It's not because they hate democracy, but rather they have genuine concerns that they feel Democrats are ignoring.

I also have my own different concerns, and I invite all conservatives everywhere to strive to understand. I likewise do not hate America, and I have reasons for why I'm voting the way I will. What follows represents some of my deepest and sincere concerns -- and I realize this is long, but I'm intentionally using language that helps people read faster.

Plus, I'll add in some fun predictions at the end, in which in four years I'll do some backtesting -- see how well I did. 

Overall, I consider myself to be a Reagan conservative. I was originally raised as a Democrat (loved Jimmy Carter), but as I took courses in economics, I came to understand the importance of conservative fiscal policies -- they just work better and more efficiently, maintaining proper incentives, and achieving the best results.

Reagan embodied these fiscal policies, and he was also pro-immigration. We are all immigrants, and our country flourishes with a steady influx of new talent and contributors. How does that Neil Diamond song go again?

Reagan was also pro-free-trade, a cornerstone of conservative fiscal policy. Tariffs, bans, and one-sided trade deals are more inefficient, while free trade allows each country to benefit from specialization. We end up helping each other.

Reagan was also pro-liberal-order. A commonly misunderstood term these days, the international liberal order is a doctrine shared by most "free" countries -- that we will work together to support rising democracies, protect them from autocracies, and increase freedoms worldwide.

Reagan also believed that we should all work together. The best solutions come when those with opposing views come together and find ways to make life better all around. This is the "synergy" described in Covey's "7 Habits."

As such, I've supported presidents who have shared these same principles, such as my favorite after Reagan: George W. Bush.

With Trump, however, I find many differences.

Fiscal policies: IMO, Trump brought with him several "liberal" policies such as tariffs, which increased the costs for us on certain goods. He's critical of the Federal Reserve, an independent agency governing monetary policy. He would rather we lower interest rates so the stock market can soar, but would also endanger us with hyper-inflation such as Hungary experienced a couple of years ago. He also undid some perfectly fine long-standing free-trade agreements.

Immigration: Trump says that he's for *legal* immigration -- "come in through the gate" -- which sounds great, but during his first term, he didn't really lessen illegal immigration. Rather, he made it tougher to get through the gates, cutting down on refugee limits, and even working to send back home certain green cards holders -- you know -- people who had already come through the gates. Trump's head immigration guy, Ken Cuccinelli, even went as far as to mock the poem that graces the bottom of our Statue of Liberty. Trump also tried and failed to institute a religious test to keep out Muslims. And he threatens to deport many in his next term, including green card holders who do not appreciate our prominent Christian religion. Reagan wouldn't stand for any of this.

International Liberal Order: Trump has made it clear that he tends to side with Putin in the current Ukraine war. They should cede land to Russia, and they should stay out of NATO. He also says that we need to settle American concerns first before protecting other democracies. Reagan would have condemned this whole stance: why can't we do both at the same time?

Working together: Trump may excel at making deals, but he doesn't work well with opponents. He mocks them nearly every time he opens his mouth. He gives them all cute nicknames, as most bullies do. Compared with other presidents, he had the largest amount of staff turnover in decades, many of whom ended up testifying against him in courts and hearings. And remember when Congress put together a bipartisan bill to increase security at the border, including efforts to control the flow of fentanyl? It was doing great until Trump ordered his people to kill it. This was not how Reagan governed. In fact, he had an 11th commandment: "Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican."

So, yeah -- that's one of my major concern. I don't see Trump as a Reaganesque candidate. Rather -- he is quite the opposite. Further, I find that many of Trump's policies contradict Matthew 25:40. In that parable, Jesus tells us we need to help everyone -- even the "least of my brethren." On the other hand, Trump's messages seem to say: "...unless they're Mexican, Muslim, LGBTQ, liberal, or just plain anti-Trump."

Also, I've watched over the past decade the transition of the GOP in response to Trump. In 2015, they were mostly of the Reagan variety. So much so that they mostly condemned him and his anti-immigration rhetoric. They called him racist and a joke.

But in January 2016 when Trump became the clear front-runner, each individual GOP politician had to decide: Support Trump and keep our jobs? Or stick with Reaganesque principles and get primaried? The vast majority went with the former, but some, such as McCain, Romney, Rubio, the Bush family, the Cheneys, etc. stuck to their principles and continued condemning Trump. This was when I decided to leave the GOP. After all, I wasn't a politician and knew I wouldn't lose my job if I stuck to my own principles. I've been independent ever since, and loving it.

At first, GOP politicians tried containing and/or mitigating Trump. "We support him, but we need to remember these principles over here." But Trump ran on the platform that he was bucking the establishment. He needed to "Drain the Swamp." He called all of his GOP opponents RINOs, and it seems to have worked. It took 8 years, but little by little, the GOP has transformed into what I would like to now call the Trumplican Party. At the beginning of 2025, there will be very few "establishment" GOP politicians left in Congress. Lisa Murkowski is still in there, but Romney is leaving, and so are other moderate members. Gone are the few who stood up to Trump -- who testified against him in court and hearings.

Trump has even taken over the Republican National Committee, installing his own daughter-in-law as co-leader, who has helped changed the priorities of the Committee to "elect Trump" rather than general support of all GOP races. It should be clear to everyone and anyone that he owns the whole Party. He's the one calling the shots in the House. What he says, the GOP does. (Has a presidential candidate ever had this much power over a party before entering office?)

Well, I'll let you in on a little secret. Reagan created the "establishment." All those politicians who have been censured and primaried? They were all Reaganesque conservatives. If one ever hopes to return to Reaganesque times and policies -- well -- it's just not going to happen now, because they're all gone. And get this -- out of all presidential candidates who had won either the Democrat or Republican nominations -- not one of them supports Trump. This includes McCain who died a few years ago.

And frankly, I don't see how the GOP can ultimately survive in its current state. I have never seen a group so corrupt, so willing to win by any means necessary, including spreading the most obviously ridiculous lies and conspiracy theories. 2023 has also proven that they have become the most incompetent and ineffective group I've seen in my entire lifetime. Last year was the least productive session of Congress in decades. The GOP couldn't even elect a leader in the House -- or at least it took them weeks to do so. And when that Speaker committed the ulforgivable sin of working with the Democrats, they removed him. And when the next Speaker did the same, they threatened to remove him, too. And all those ineffective money-wasting hearings Jordan is holding -- all coming up with nothing usable? Seriously -- I'm wondering who let these clowns in, and when can we get the competent "establishment" back?

And the funniest thing. Who is it now that's pro-immigration, pro-free-trade, pro-liberal-order, pro-working-together? None other than the freakin' Democrats. Remember back in the 1980s -- who were the ones against people crossing our borders, against free trade agreements, and against fighting wars that didn't affect us? That's right -- it was the 1980s Democratic Party. The tables have turned!

So yeah -- that's another concern of mine. I see that the Republicans and Democrats have largely switched places in all these regards. And my principles have not changed. Yes, the Democrats still have some crazy liberal fiscal ideas floating around, but they're still the ones right now who I see as sane, and the closest to Reagan-style conservatism.

I see that in large -- remember when Trump called himself a Democrat? Well, when he switched to Republican, he brought with him many historically liberal ideas and passed them off as the new conservatism. In my mind, Trump is the true RINO, who reshaped the Party in his image, and well -- my most deepest concern is -- I just want my dang establishment party back. Let's get back to normal life.

Everything up to here is about policy and/or competency, but there's one more really big item. Before Nov 2020, I was able to at least consider voting for Trump. In fact, there were a couple of weeks in January 2020 when I was concerned about Bernie Sanders being the front Democratic runner. On social media, I even wrote: if anyone could get me to vote for Trump, it would be Bernie.

But on the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, when Trump gave his election-night speech calling for people to stop counting votes while he was ahead, he had entered new territory -- a place that would lose my vote permanently. Over the two months that followed, he asked us to believe that there was enough fraud that would have changed the results -- something that was nearly mathematically impossible, especially without even one piece of actionable evidence. You can read what I thought (and still think) about these fraud allegations here.

Trump at first exhausted all of his legal options. Only one of many court cases succeeded -- some mail-in ballots were thrown out in PA. But other than that, there just wasn't any evidence. And many recounts and audits after the fact (including a heavily-GOP-biased audit in Arizona) found absolutely nothing amiss, and did nothing but confirm the official results that were reported.

Trump then used some not-so-legal methods, even holding heated brainstorming sessions in the White House with a few questionable people. He fired Barr and tried to find someone else willing to do what Barr wouldn't. At one moment, we were really just one signature away from Trump succeeding. But ultimately, these people (most of whom were GOP) chose to stick to their principles, and denied him his coup. He even held a rally on Jan. 6 to protest counting the votes -- can you name even one other sitting president who had done the same?

This all culminated in the riot that ensued later that day, which wasn't quelled until Mike Pence helped to send in the National Guard. But that was all icing on the cake. Trump had already lost my vote permanently. He was already a traitor and a seditionist. As of right now, there is no scenario possible in which I can ever vote for Trump. Even if Bernie Sanders ends up as the Democratic nominee.

Trump's sins came more into light when many of his prior staff and other involved GOP members testified against him during the Jan. 6 Committee Hearings. Many of his followers have yet to see any of this testimony and evidence because they are instructed not to look at it. (BTW -- I do highly recommend catching some of this testimony and evidence if you haven't seen it yet -- very eye-opening.)

But the saddest part of all of this -- Trump didn't do this alone. He received a LOT of help from GOP congressmen. On Jan. 6, a very large chunk of the GOP House protested the votes without a shred of actionable evidence, and this was even AFTER the seditious riot that had caused them to have to evacuate earlier that day. Well -- some congressmen did change their minds at the end of the day.

And over the past 4 years, the GOP has been working hard in many states to weaken voting integrity, such as stopping the use of ERIC, an independent 3rd-party system that actually increases integrity and is very difficult to replicate otherwise, and also installing new laws that allows state legislatures to remove officials or even county votes if they "think" fraud exists. Though, I do have hope that shenanigans like this won't happen in 2024, as when one county in Arizona tried in 2022, they ended up in big trouble. But we'll see.

My list of GOP politicians that I can no longer rely on continues to grow. Rubio, who once stood up to Trump, now praises and pushes his lies. I will likely never be able to trust him again. I don't regret voting for him in the 2016 primary, but still, what use do I have of limp toast today? If somehow, Trump were to bow out, and Ted Cruz were to take his place, I'd still vote Democrat, because he's damaged goods. About the only GOP candidate I could consider supporting today would be Nikki Haley, who has somehow mantained most of her integrity and competency. I'm greatly saddened that the GOP has not chosen to go with the more viable candidate.

But okay -- why Democrat, then? I'd much rather support a Reagan conservative. But when none exist, what other choice do I have? In my own state 2024, I tried voting in Reagan conservatives in all races (including Nikki Haley), but NONE of them won -- well, except for possibly a couple in the one county race where we could vote for three. I'm just running out of viable GOP candidates that I can support. I'd rather choose competent Democrats.

In 2016, I voted 3rd party: Libertarian. I actually liked Johnson, and I didn't care who'd win between Trump or Hilary.

In 2020, Biden caught my attention, as his campaign rallies were different from Trump and Bernie, whose speeches were filled with hate and punitive rhetoric. There was one Biden speech in particular, January or February, where I heard a message of one of hope, unity, and working together. It was EXACTLY what I felt the world needed at that particular time, especially when we were all going through the worst year ever with a mismanaged pandemic and riots that Trump stoked.

Also, the other 3rd party candidates were jokes who all seemed to believe the government should do absolutely nothing about anything, or were different flavors of Trump wrapped up in a different package.

I voted for Biden in 2020 because he was the only one whom I actually liked, and I believed he could help us get out of that whole mess. But I did know beforehand that he's not perfect, and would be weak in certain areas.

In general, he performed exactly as I had anticipated. In a couple of areas, I was disappointed, and in other areas I was pleasantly surprised. Biden had actually gotten a LOT done before 2023. He helped pass a couple of large bipartisan packages (with a LOT of help from Romney). One was the Infrastructure Law that Trump had promised but never delivered, which most people seem to like (or at least they never seem to complain about it). Another was the Build-Back-Better Law, which contained more liberal ideas I didn't like, but it was still a major bipartisan achievement. All of this required phone calls and meetings in Biden's office. It's the one thing I can say about Biden: he really does know how to get people to work together behind the scenes.

Am I better off today than I was four years ago? Big time yes. 2020 was a really bad year. But not only that ... thanks to our great country and freedoms that we enjoy today, I'm actually pushing ahead in my own American Dream -- wait till you see what comes next.

I'd vote for Biden again in 2024, but man -- that debate was terrible and a little scary. I still like him, and he may continue to be fine as president, but the 25th Amendment definitely looms, and we could easily end up with President Harris. She's a little more liberal than I'd like, but I'd choose her any day over Trump. I'm just worried that Biden will lose the election.

But what about 3rd Party this year? I'm usually the guy who stands up for 3rd Party voting, but this year seems to be critical. Duverger's Law almost guarantees that a 3rd party is unlikely to win. The math just doesn't support more than two candidates. If a 3rd party, such as RFK, Jr. were to win enough electoral votes (say he gets one state), and no one gets 270 votes, then the House gets to pick the president. In that scenario, each state gets 2 votes each, and majority wins. Since there are more red states than blue, Trump wins.

So, I'll say this now ... if you are like me, where the main goal is to keep Trump out of office, then as per game theory, your best bet is to vote for the Democrat. There just isn't any way around it. Some people say, "A vote for 3rd party is a vote for Trump," but I won't go that far -- I still don't agree with it. But I will say this. You can bet your shiny dollar that Trump supporters WILL show up at the polls, and they WILL vote for Trump. Why did Hilary lose in 2016? Not because I voted Johnson, but rather: many of those who would have voted for Hilary stayed home, allowing Trump to win. As per my humble beliefs, those who are able to vote and choose not to don't have the right to complain about whom ultimately gets elected.

And I know that many will say: what about Bidenflation and all the freedoms we've lost under him? And my answer is: look -- there are a lot of lies going around, propogated by practically every GOP politician. One is about inflation. It's worldwide. We economic types knew as early as Feb 2020 that there would be inflation in the Covid recovery. It was further excerbated by the Ukraine War. Europe has had higher inflation than us since mid-2022. Our GDP has ended up performing very well, and somehow we've avoided a recession. I think in this area, Biden has done quite well, and Trump would have made it worse (as I mentioned way above).

And the only freedoms we've lost are the ones at the hands of the GOP in several states, related to abortion and certain things that can no longer be said or taught in public schools. I think many confuse the actions of social media to combat misinformation with First Amendment infringements. But as private entities, these companies are actually guaranteed the right to do exactly that under the very same First Amendment, an idea that was reinforced by the Supreme Court's decisions a couple of days on this subject. I may not particularly agree with the social media outlets on this, but they are indeed private entities, and they have the right to censor. Truth Social and Parler have also censored, as is their right, too. Not being able to speak on social media doesn't mean we can't speak elsewhere.

People also confuse pandemic mitigations with First Amendment infringements. But no -- there are centuries of precedent that the government does have limited rights in certain situations to temporarily enact measures to protect the public (also reaffirmed by the SCOTUS a couple of days ago). Plus, I have very little sympathy for people complaining about "losing their rights" when the rest of us are trying to protect the lives of Grandma and Grandpa. (Don't they have their own right to live?)

As of today, I know of no remaining "you can't do that now" measures related to Covid. There isn't even a suggested 5-day quarantine if one catches Covid. So again, exactly what freedoms have we supposedly lost?

Lastly, I'd like for you all to consider this point of view, and it's a big one. I think back to the history classes we took in high school. I was in the same room as many of my conservative friends, when we learned about racism, tyrants, and many injustices. And why did we learn about these items? So, we could learn how to not repeat those same mistakes.

I'll say that again in different words -- so we can help history not to repeat itself. Do you remember back in school when we would talk amongst ourselves and say, "We'll never let this happen in real life; if I had lived back then, I wouldn't have supported it"?

Well, guess what -- now's your chance. This is exactly why I'll be voting against Trump again -- a third time. I see the warning signs I was taught to look out for, and I'm doing everything in my power to stop what comes next. The irony is not lost on me on how the GOP is working hard to have these items removed from our school curriculum. If we don't teach our kids these warning signs now -- how much easier they will be to control later!

And sure -- I know Trump is nothing compared to Hitler, but dang -- it certainly seems Trump is using his rulebook. He tries to silence the media -- telling his followers not to trust them (and his people listen). He chooses a group of people to villify -- Mexican immigrants. He's already separated over a thousand children from their families.

Just last week in the debate, he repeated at least eight times the idea of millions of incoming immigrants as the source of many of our woes. And I couldn't help but notice: where have I heard this before? Oh yeah, just swap out "Jews" for "immigrants." Yeah -- that's where I've heard this before. In fact what I'm hearing today coming out of his own mouth sounds even worse than his first term. Now with more help and immunity I think he's becoming more emboldened to say the most terrible things. Perhaps if we see him on 5th Avenue, we should duck and cover?

He's already talking about a third term. Just like Putin successfully changed their constitution in 2020 to allow him to be in office till 2036, Trump will try to do the same here. And many have already been installed to help him achieve this when the time comes.

He has talked about being a dictator on Day 1. He may have been joking, but he has clearly said that he will go after Biden, the Jan. 6 Committee, and other opponents. While Trump complains that agencies are being weaponized against him now, he vows to weaponize these same agencies to achieve his retributions. Whether he succeeds will be up to how well checks and balances continue to hold.

He is also likely to support aspects of Project 2025, a conservative think-tank solution on how to achieve certain ultra-conservative goals, including giving the President much more power over all agencies, taking over the Federal Reserve, installing Christianity in our government, anti-diversity initiatives, using the military to enforce law, and so on.

So, yeah -- I'm very concerned about the future of our country. I love my country, and I want it to continue. I fear what Trump and his new party can do to our country, and I wonder how long it will take for us to recover. I'm willing to play the long game and vote for anyone else now with the hopes of surviving and returning back to Reaganesque conservative principles in the future.

And here are my predictions:

The following will *surely* happen ...

• Trump will win in 2024 (I don't see how it can be avoided now).
• He will put an end to or pardon himself from all lawsuits currently against him.
• He will indeed push for a third term.
• He will take stronger measures to silence the media.
• Inflation will soar.
• He will carry out mass deportations, and it will be a humanitarian disaster. Likely some legal immigrants will be removed as well.
• He will make a LOT of money, which his supporters will happily provide to their own detriment.
• At some point he will employ the military on our soil, whether it be martial law or to help in deportations.
• He will succeed in reforming all executive agencies and gain full control over all of them.
• He will weaken many of our environmental protection efforts, which will lead to more pollution, stronger storms, and sicker people.
• He will happily help give land from the Ukraine to Putin "peacefully."
• He will further weaken our standing in the world, allowing other autocrats to take over other democracies.
• He will allow China and Russia to become much more powerful.

The following *might* happen ...

• Trump will successfully destroy the independence of the Federal Reserve.
• He will help decrease LGBTQ protections.
• He may succeed in imprisoning his political opponents -- though hopefully checks and balances will kick in.
• We will fail another pandemic.

Things could also get very bad beyond all this, but I won't go there. If his people come to cart me away -- you will know that it's bad.

And lastly, one last prediction I made back in 2021 and still sticking with ...

• Ultimately we *will* survive and recover. We will see after the fact all the bad things that transpired, and we will work to restore what we once had. Some people will live out the rest of their lives with the realization and regret of what they allowed and enabled. New history books will be written, so that we might try again to avoid these mistakes in the future. The GOP will be dismantled, and another party will rise up in its stead.

So, whomever the Democrats choose as their candidate, whether it be Biden or any other, that's whom I will vote for. And I will do so with a clear conscious, no matter what comes next.

Is It No Longer Okay to Wax Politically?

 

It's been a while since I've posted here. By far, the number one reason is because I've been so gosh darn busy on other pursuits. In particular, I've made great strides in my music business, putting in more hours this year than ever before. (You should check out my first album -- just search for "Mel Windham" in your favorite streaming service.) I've learned that the less I wax politically, the more I get done in my own personal life. The progress is much more enjoyable than the feeling of participating in political discussions.

I must also admit a second reason. Now that I'm becoming more visible in the music world, I've found that I need to behave -- in a sense. If I'm going around social media attacking anyone's political beliefs, they can then ban my business -- they can tell their friends, and then it'd be good luck getting my products sold.

But ultimately, I think deep down, I'm just tired of the current toxic political environment. I'm shocked to see reports of people losing their jobs over saying what I believe were reasonable ideas and/or objections. And how often do people say: this CEO supports that political cause, so we're going to ban her business? I've seen some go into bankruptcies over items that were not much more than simple misunderstandings. How did things get this bad?

I mostly left Twitter a few months ago and immediately felt happier in life. Like a big burden lifted. Do I really need this stuff in my life?

Nevertheless -- I do still have strong political views on certain items -- but I'm learning to keep them in check. I value my friendships more than I do being correct in political discussions. I have a good friend at work where we would get into the most intense political discussions, even scaring onlookers -- only to eat lunch with him one hour later, relaxing with non-political topics. I try to keep my friendships going despite our differences. But nevertheless -- I do notice that I've lost quite a big chunk of friends in the past couple of years who just can't associate with people who believe the way I do.

It's like we've all become precious snowflakes.

Then again, politics has served to be a good filter for me to learn who my true friends are. And believe me -- I have a LOT of respect for anyone who disagrees with me on so many items and still keeps me around. (A hint: we all disagree with any other random person on SOME deeply held belief -- if we knew the full truth, would we have any friends left?)

But still -- in today's environment, I no longer feel safe saying ... well ... anything. Even that good friend I mentioned from work -- we no longer talk politics -- we both know the environment is just too toxic.

Those who know me know how well I make friends, and how I get my friends to become friends with each other. I am the ultimate moderate. I always strive to accentuate the items where we agree on things -- and when you think about it -- if you were to pick a random person, you're both likely to agree 90% on just about everything. I've even had one person tell me at work: "we'll never be friends" only to now be friends -- well maybe good acquaintances. Funny thing is: today this friend and I are near 100% in agreement on political items, as we have both matured in our beliefs. We're both moderates now.

The problem: there is just so much HATE. Say the wrong buzz word, and all hell rains down. Then there is nothing you can say to be forgiven. It all reminds me of my favorite nightmare: where I'm in heaven, but we can still make mistakes -- and if we make just one mistake, that's it -- down to hell. And the nightmare was how much everyone hated being in heaven, and we were afraid to do ... just about anything.

And oh, how much I wish we could speak openly and still get along with each other. Because, more than ever before, we desperately need to be able to do so. More than any other time in my lifetime, I've never seen things get this bad. I've never before seen the possible end of our nation and our freedoms. If we could just ... talk ... then we could work things out. We could diffuse this toxic environment, and we could find solutions ... together.

What can we do about this? I'm not sure. Right now I feel I can only stay out of it all, continue enjoying my musical progress, and hope everything diffuses itself and goes back to normal. Perhaps it's already too late? Or perhaps the madness/wisdom cycle will swing back towards wisdom on its own? All I can do is hope for the best?

If I may suggest a filter for you to consider: we may be able to weed out the HATE collectively. If a political figure teaches you to hate any particular group of people, whether by race, nationality, religion, political beliefs, or any other label we can slap on anyone, then do NOT support that candidate. They contribute GREATLY to the problem.

Some readers may laugh and say: "But Mel, that filter doesn't leave very many politicians." Sadly that might be true. However, politicians who don't spread HATE do exist. Unfortunately they are the ones being forced out of office nearly everywhere, but they are exactly the politicians we need: the ones who promote LOVE, cooperation, synergy (7 Habits), and so on. If we can support those politicians, then I think we'd come out ahead. 

Then we'd again be able to wax politically while keeping our friends and livelihoods.

20th Anniversary of 9/11

Today is the 20th Anniversary of 9/11 -- a disaster we'll never forget. Thousands of people lost their lives. A symbol was destroyed. Practically everyone in this nation felt as if they had lost something. It was one of our worst times. 

But it also brought out the best of us. For a brief period of time, people banded together. 

Many first responders gave immediate assistance. Their goal -- to save as many lives as they could. For some, it wasn't even their shift. It was all hands on deck. Over the next few days, many worked many hours in the hopes of finding more survivors. And yet many of these responders were in the towers as they fell -- giving the ultimate sacrifice for saving lives.

A few days later, President Bush gave a speech and for the only time in my entire life, I saw both sides of the aisle cheering and clapping in unison. There were no more Democrats or Republicans -- only Americans. Bush's approval rating shot up to 90%. We were united, and we all supported what came next -- an action to destroy the power that attacked us. 

And we all did our parts, whether it was comforting those who had lost loved ones, or donating money, or supporting first responders across the nation. We even agreed to give up some of our freedoms through the Patriot Act -- just a few freedoms -- for the sake of security to make sure this never happened again. Though we were vulnerable in the attack, we came out stronger and united with the American Spirit we all possess, and we rebuilt and vowed never to forget. 

In fact, these days, you can't separate the words "never forget" from the 9/11 attack. If you don't believe me, just do a Google search -- it'll come up 90% 9/11. It is forever ingrained into our everyday life.

But sometimes I wonder if these are just meaningless words that we keep repeating ... as if we have indeed forgotten. I look around and I see a nation divided. Both sides hate the other immensely, and I see no remedy. Is it possible to have that same unity again -- unified with the same American Spirit? Do we need another disaster to bring us together?

Sometimes I believe that perhaps even a disaster wouldn't accomplish this. Imagine -- a disaster that shakes our whole nation -- killing thousands of people, bringing everything to a halt -- causing the action of many first responders across the nation to try and save lives, dealing directly with the death and struggles every day, working countless hours and even other people's shifts. 

If such a disaster were to happen, would we truly remember and unite again? Would we stop being Democrats and Republicans, and just be Americans? Would we again band together to help each other get through this disaster? Would we again revere the frontline responders, or would we instead ignore them while they cried into their pillows every night? Would our leaders lead us with consistency and full information or would they choose to take every opportunity to demonstrate how terribly the other side is doing for political gain? Would we again do our parts -- whatever it takes to get through it and come out stronger -- or would we choose to do nothing except mock those who die and their loved ones? Would we rebuild, or would we continue to tear apart?

Have we already truly forgotten? Or is it yet not too late?

Coronavirus -- Should I Protect the Unvaccinated?

I'm back for another special edition Coronavirus Update -- this one geared for the vaccinated people who are considering whether or not to put the masks back on.

I'm vaccinated. My immediate family is vaccinated. Almost everyone in my inner circle is vaccinated (with a couple of exceptions).

I no longer fear this virus. As Fox News (Julie Banderas) reported earlier on Friday: out of 163.9 Million people vaccinated, only 0.003% were hospitalized, and only 0.001% have died.

On top of that, we know that 97% of all recent hospitalizations are from the unvaccinated.

The data is very clear. The vaccines are working. I may still catch the virus and get sick, but I'm most likely not going to be hospitalized, and I'm also not going to die.

About 30% of adults remain unvaccinated, and they have their rights. Several have told me variations of: "It's my choice. Why should you even care if I get sick? It's a 99% survival rate, and I'm willing to take the chances." 

And you know what? I would be perfectly fine with this. It would be like me running some high-adventure high-risk company where people can come in to sign waivers to take on the risks themselves -- and then enjoy themselves. If they sign waivers, would I feel bad if they hurt themselves?

But then Delta comes around -- and this puppy is mean. It infects more people than any variant before it. Experts are saying it is now as contagious as the chicken pox. And this changes everything. Even some vaccinated people are catching it, having mild symptoms, and then passing it on to others.

I know of one congregation where a couple of weeks ago, a sick fully-vaccinated member went to church and infected at least five other people (some of which were also vaccinated -- also with mild symptoms). This prompted the temporary closing of that church. 

Perhaps I should put on a mask just to avoid even the mild symptoms? But would it really be worth it? Can't we just be done with this virus?

If everyone were vaccinated, we really wouldn't have to do anything further -- as everyone who got sick would just have mild symptoms, and then it would all go away for good.

In other words, no one would need protection. No masks, no shutdowns, no nothing.

But we still have 30%+ left that need protection. Before Delta, it appeared we were reaching a herd immunity with numbers dropping like a rock, and the unvaccinated were enjoying some protection, but now that's all out the window.

With Delta, there are the disturbing reports of hospitalized people asking for the vaccine, only to have the doctors tell them it was too late. Or hospitalized people expressing regret in not getting vaccinated. I highly recommend watching this BBC video (which I can't seem to embed). It shows some people expressing regrets, and also shows some compelling graphics depicting how few vaccinated people are catching COVID19 and dying.

This all gives me pause -- and helps me to realize -- many of my unvaccinated friends may be yelling at me now demanding a "waiver" so I don't have to worry, who will then in a few weeks be expressing regrets -- and possibly be angry at those who had been lying to them about COVID19 and these vaccines. Should I make my decisions based on their attitudes today? Or should I base my decisions on how their attitudes will be a month from now? 

Seeing the saddened people in that BBC video makes me want to still protect them until they finally figure it out and get vaccinated themselves. Sure -- I can put the mask back on. I hate it -- but I'll do it -- at least in most situations.

Coronavirus -- The Vaccine Good News

Here is another special-edition coronavirus newsletter on the vaccine. This time it's really good news.

First off, I should apologize for any and all self-righteousness I may have exhibited over this past year. I fear that my judgmental tone may have served to push people away from doing what's needed to end this pandemic. It was mainly my frustration with the Anti-Hype, which is real and still in full force, by the way. There really are people (mainly foreigners and anarchists) at the source who create all this dangerous misinformation -- much of which is scientifically generated with artificial intelligence to deceive us all -- with the goal of dividing and destroying our country.

As I tried to fight this Anti-Hype and bring my readers to the knowledge of its existence, I ended up pushing many of them away. No doubt some of the articles I came across were likewise scientifically generated to get people like me angry so we bite off our friends' heads and help entrench them in their beliefs. Likewise, I've come across many "liberal" leaning articles that had been downplaying the effectiveness of our vaccines and exaggerating the badness of COVID19 in attempts to scare us into submission -- which only had the result of further pushing away my friends.

Anyway -- I'll try again not to be so judgmental. Especially not now when the end is in sight. It is so very close.

What I have today is both very good news for all of us and at the same time very bad news for some of us.

The good news: the vaccines work -- like "crazy" work -- like "the numbers are actually dropping like a rock" work. Especially Pfizer and Moderna. (And the Johnson & Johnson shot is okay -- slightly less effective.) The UK and Israel are now experiencing really flat death rates, and they're just a little ahead of the US in vaccinations. We're almost there.

From recent studies and experience, we have strong evidence that the vaccines approved in the US cut down drastically on hospitalizations (and death), and are also drastically reducing asymptomatic transfer. Else we would be seeing a lot more cases and death in our actual experience.

This statement from the Cleveland Clinic observes that over 99% of hospitalizations in their hospitals from January to mid-April were unvaccinated patients. And this same trend seems to apply to other groups as well. As they state: "It cannot be more clear the message that vaccines work and it's the key action that we need to do to get back to our normal lives ..."

Not only that, but I think the mRNA vaccine technology itself (Pfizer and Moderna) -- if fully proven to be safe in other applications -- could be a watershed moment in the field of medicine, and could be the beginning of many miracle cures for a variety of diseases and syndromes -- all another reason why these recent developments are crazy good news.

It's such great news that Dr. Fauci, the CDC, and President Biden have all recommended that we no longer need masks indoors if we are vaccinated. It's probably the first time during the entire pandemic that I've seen these guys not treat us like children and actually spell it out accurately.

Though, it's not without confusion. And this is where the really bad news comes in -- but wait -- I'm building up to it. The biggest concern: How do we know which people have been vaccinated? Won't the unvaccinated people just take off their masks as well?

This CNN opinion article by scientists does a really good job summarizing all the concerns. It is true that the vaccines aren't 100% effective -- but then again, if we (as the article states) are getting deaths down to the level of influenza (even less than influenza among the vaccinated), then is it worth keeping everything shut down and wearing masks when they may no longer be necessary?

However, the CNN article does hit on one very important concern. If the vaccinated stop wearing masks, then unvaccinated people wearing masks may receive the judgmental wind. "Why haven't you gotten vaccinated yet? Stay away from me." This would provide a gigantic incentive for the unvaccinated to leave off their masks in order to avoid consternation. Which would then inspire concerned people who can't get vaccinated for medical reasons to shutter themselves at home, which can cause other issues.

And what's going to happen next? If the unvaccinated take off their masks, then there's going to be another wave of cases and then death. How big it gets will depend on how fast the remainder of us can get vaccinated to build up sufficient herd immunity. And who's going to die as a result? Mostly the unvaccinated.

This is the really bad news. Biden and the CDC in their announcement have officially declared open season on the unvaccinated. I don't know if this is intentional or not. Maybe Biden thinks more people will get vaccinated if they no longer have to wear masks. Or perhaps Biden thinks: "Screw it all. We have a vaccine so it's everyone for themselves. Let's open this puppy up." Maybe this new development will inspire more people to get vaccinated, regardless of Biden's intentions. If by some miracle we could get a crazy number like 90% vaccinated, then this all comes to an end.

I don't think we need that much, but if we don't get enough to keep it all under wraps, then the spread and death will continue at faster rates, which is really bad news for our unvaccinated friends and especially their unvaccinated vulnerable friends.

I'll end with this quick guide to help those still sitting on the fence:

So, You're Thinking About Getting the Shot?

Now with masks coming off, it's a good time to reconsider if you are prepared for what comes next.

Are these vaccines safe? You should check out this cool article that uses pictures to compare the risk of COVID19 vs. the risk of taking the vaccines. I'll give you a preview: Per capita, the number of people dying from COVID19 are much higher than those dying after the vaccines.

How do I get a shot? This looks like a good resource -- just type in your zip code and it'll show you plenty of places -- clinics, pharmacies, and even some grocery stores. Some places now accept walk-ins. And the best part -- they're all free!

Which shot should I get? At this stage, while demand is relatively low and supply is high, you can choose which shot you want. In the tool I mentioned in the last paragraph, you can even filter by Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson. Though, I've predicted on Facebook that in a couple of months we may have only one choice available, and it may be Johnson & Johnson. While you have a choice, I would choose Pfizer or Moderna, because they use the new mRNA technology that's super effective -- crazy effective. Johnson & Johnson seems to be having more "breakthrough" infections.

Do I need both shots? If you get Pfizer or Moderna, some of you may want to get just the first shot, as the second shot is reported to make people temporarily sick. I, myself, had a 99.3°F fever for about 12 hours. Just one shot gets you to about 80% protection, and the second shot gets you to over 95%. Note that the UK largely used the one-shot method to get more people with some level of vaccination. As that second shot only provides an additional 15%. Currently, the US is sitting at 46% at-least-one-shot vaccinated and 35% fully vaccinated. The UK is at 53% at-least-one-shot vaccinated and 28% fully vaccinated. And the UK is doing much better than us with their really low death rates even though the US has more fully-vaccinated people per capita.

So if you're one of those peeps who can't afford to miss any days of work, then just get the one shot, and you'll still be contributing a great deal to the nationwide vaccination effort.

Can I still get sick if I'm vaccinated? Unfortunately -- the chance remains. You can get COVID19 enough to end up in the hospital, and you can even die. But the observed counts are very low. So low that one may compare this with the dangers of getting into a car and getting hurt in an accident. Most likely, if you contract COVID19, it will be a mild case.

How does these vaccines even work? Don't they change our DNA and weaken our immune system? No -- in fact they do the opposite. Pfizer and Moderna are mRNA vaccines -- a new technology. It introduces instructions (mRNA) that our cells read to temporarily create harmless spiky proteins that look like COVID19. Then our natural immune system builds antibodies that will attack anything having those same spiky protein shells. The mRNA does enter the outside of our cells, where the proteins are created, but then the mRNA dissolves before getting anywhere close to the nucleus where our DNA is stored. Also, there is no mechanism provided to insert the instructions into our DNA.

Here's a quick video on mRNA vaccines:

Johnson & Johnson uses a similar tactic, but it relies on a repurposed virus that inserts the mRNA into our cells -- and again, this repurposed virus doesn't have the mechanism installed to change our DNA.

More information is available at the CDC site.

What if I choose not to get a shot? It's clear that these shots will not be forced on us. It is indeed a free country. But while we have freedom to choose, we don't get to choose the consequences. The virus will attack anyone who is not vaccinated, and those people can continue to spread the virus to friends and family who may be extra vulnerable. You should do your own research as to what the most risky option is. For some people, medical conditions could actually make the vaccine more risky -- such as people very susceptible to anaphylactic shock from vaccines. Weigh your options (entirely free of any political concerns), and decide on your own what you should do. And if you get any flack from your friends because of your decision, you can tell them not to be so judgmental.

But if you do choose not to get a shot, you may want to consider other mitigations factors to help reduce risk such as continuing to wear a mask, staying away from crowded indoor events, and practicing social distancing.

Closing Thoughts

This may be my very last coronavirus newsletter -- at least I would love it to be the last. I'm ready for this to be done. I'm vaccinated, and my family will be fully vaccinated shortly, and I've already started experiencing the newfound freedom this vaccine provides. If the variants are held at bay, then this will turn into a slow trickle and there will be an end to the high death counts. I'm even looking forward to catching the "Quiet Place" sequel at the end of the month -- in the theater. 

I wish you all well, and I hope you find your own way to live life to its fullest while at the same time mitigating the risks of death.