How Is Biden Taking the Lead So Late?

Many seem to be sincerely surprised that Biden is slowly emerging victorious. Some even think it's some kind of fraud. And this is where I'm surprised, because what's happening now is exactly what I've seen in all of the recent elections back to 2000. There have always been states that take longer to count votes than other states. And this time -- we knew this going into the election -- it's exacerbated by many more mail-in ballots due to the coronavirus pandemic. It just takes more time to count all those mail-in ballots -- mainly because it takes more time to vet them, checking signatures, whether the person has already voted, and all other measures in place to make sure fraud and mistakes aren't happening.

Imagine this ... you're running the vote count for your state, and you've just finished election day. You got all your in-person votes. You're counting your early votes and checking the provisionals (ballots with issues). And you've got this desk with a gigantic pile of main-in votes. (Well -- maybe several desks.) How long should you wait before cutting off counting votes from that pile?

Or how about this? You're in line to vote where things shut down at 7PM. The line is moving very slowly, and it's 6:59PM. At 7PM, should the election officer cut off the line and send everyone home? Or should they let the remaining people vote?

There really is no difference between the two scenarios. If you're in line by 7PM, you're going to get your chance to vote, even if it takes three hours. And those votes are going to be counted.

And that tall stack of mail-in votes? There is absolutely nothing in the Constitution, nor in any state law that says that counting those votes has to finish by midnight Election Day. That's something crazy people have made up. The first deadline is December 14, when the designated electors are supposed to vote.

On Election night, Trump made the unprecedented move to claim victory in at least five states where he was in the lead, but where the states were nowhere near done counting the votes, and where no reputable forecaster had called them -- nothing I'd ever seen before in my life. Even in 2000 with Bush v. Gore, no action was taken until Florida had finished their first count.

But okay ... I need to keep this short and get back to the OP question. Trump was in the lead early on and was set for a landslide, but then the votes started flipping toward Biden. How is this possible?

It's really quite simple if you consider the following:

• The coronavirus epidemic inspired several states to create and/or expand their absentee ballot process. My state of NC expanded its deadline for ballots to arrive in the mail (provided the envelopes are postmarked by Election Day). The idea was to make it easier for people to avoid having to show up in person to vote and spread the virus.
• Republicans were more likely to show up in person on Election Day to vote. I usually do this, but not this year (I did absentee ballot and hand-delivered it.)
• Democrats were more likely to use mail ballots, as Democrats tend to err on the side of caution, and Republicans tend to err on the side of not fearing the virus.
• Big cities tend to be predominantly Democrat. Thus, a LOT of mail-in ballots come from big cities, and they lean heavily Democrat. (And LOTS of mail-in ballots take longer to count.)

Do you see it yet? For most states who are slow in counting, the in-person votes and perhaps early votes were counted first, which leaned heavily Republican. And that gigantic stack of mail-in votes that sat on all those desks? They take longer to vet and count, and they lean heavily Democrat. So, of course it was always going to look like a gigantic Trump lead followed by a "miraculous" Biden comeback.

But don't you fret. If you're worried about fraud or Trump losing, please consider the following:

• In Arizona, Maricopa County still has a ton of outstanding mail-in ballots, and the city of Phoenix is known for its Republican population. We could see Biden's lead shrink, and Trump can still win the state. (Funny, peeps aren't asking for the vote counting to stop there.)
• In Georgia, they still have to count outstanding military ballots, which will most likely lean Trump -- which would eat at Biden's lead, and possibly flip the state back to red.
• In North Carolina, I don't think there are enough outstanding ballots for Biden to get in the lead.
• Also remember that all these ballots should be well documented. After the fact, there will be ample time to recount, re-vet, and help us feel better about the whole process. Bad ballots will be thrown out (as they always are), and any fraud will be revealed.