Coronavirus Newsletter - What Can You Do To Stop the Spread?

General Update / What Can You Do?

The next couple of months are going to be painful, and sadness is going to hit most of us. I'm now up to two people who I know that have died, and this third wave has just begun. Even with a vaccine coming shortly, we still have to be vigilant to avoid as much death as we can in the coming weeks. If you haven't gotten there yet, you will most likely soon start to wonder, "What do I have to do to end all this?" We'll take a closer look after this update.

General Update

Cases are still rising in the US, but for the first time, it appears that we're starting to slow down a little. I'm not sure if it's because we've reached another testing ceiling, or if we're starting to see the effects of recently installed partial lockdowns in several states. Our death counts have officially met and passed our peak from the second wave, and it'll be another month before they slow down.

Per capita cases over the past week:

• The five worst states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Iowa, Nebraska. (Extra points for anyone to find where I grabbed the picture at the top from.)
• The five best states are: Hawaii, Maine, Vermont, Virginia, Oregon.
• My state of North Carolina is still spiking. And so is my county of Forsyth (still in 12th place in the state). (My family is hunkering down.)

Per capita deaths over the past week:

• The five worst states are: South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Wisconsin. (Stay away from that area -- really.)
• The five best states are: Hawaii, Vermont, Alaska, New Hampshire, Maine.
• In my state of North Carolina, deaths might be trying to go down -- it's kind of random.
• The US is now in 8th place for total deaths at around 0.08% of our population. Over this past week, it's been going up and down between 7th and 9th place with the UK and Italy surpassing us and Chile going back under us. There are about 6 countries real close to each other in this range.

What Can You Do?

In any kind of disaster, it's human nature to feel bad about what's going on and to want to do something about it. It happened with 9/11, and it is happening with many of us now, though there remains a large minority still catching up. 

So, what exactly can we do now? Are you ready to do your civic duty and help protect the vulnerable? If we work together, we can bring an end to this very quickly. We've seen it in South Korea, China, Japan, and many other countries. It's very possible -- and now we even know how to attack this disease while avoiding a lockdown at the same time, but it would take cooperation from nearly anyone.

How do these other countries do it and come out with much less death per capita than our country is doing right now? To put it simply ... the general public, themselves, are taking it seriously and they are working together. They are instituting correct behaviors that fight the virus, and they are helping each other to learn, remember, and act out what needs to be done. And it really isn't that tough.

STEP 1: Get educated. While we're being bombarded with misinformation, you can still do your own research. How does this virus work? What are its weaknesses? What are its strengths? What spreads it the most? What curbs its spread? I've known the answers for months, and have tried to share this info with you bit by bit. And all the information you need is available -- all waiting patiently for you to learn as well. It's not that hard, and I will summarize the big steps here.

First off, if you haven't already done so, I strongly recommend that you read the two most important newsletters I've written, primers -- if you will:

• The Simplicity -- learn what the Goal of epidemiology is. I'll tell you right now -- it's to do whatever it takes to get R(t) < 1.0, or in other words, reduce the number of active cases. If we accomplish this one Goal, then mathematically, the virus kills itself off.
• The Anti-Hype -- learn about the nefarious forces that are working to upset our one Goal. If you can come to understand how misinformation works, you can learn to combat it. And there is a very simple test -- if an idea or concept reduces the spread of the virus, then it must be good. However, if an idea or concept actually increases the spread and maximizes death, it is most likely part of this Anti-Hype.

STEP 2: Do the things that help to limit the spread. Here's a quick list.

• Wear masks. This is probably the easiest way you can participate in the fight against the virus. It's more effective than most people think. We're at an estimated 70% coverage nationwide. I'll leave it up to you to do your own research on these points (see STEP 1), but I'll still give you links to my blabs for some optional reading.
• Social distance as much as you can. This may mean staying at home, working from home, refraining from visiting friends in person, keeping distance, etc. It's all about reducing vectors of spread. You'll never know when you're the one spreading the virus until it's too late. Note that this is a temporary state until we get this much more under control. Keep in mind that Korea, China, Japan, etc., are pretty much open, but playing it safe. We can, too.
• Get tested if you think you're sick or exposed. This is the fastest way to identify where the virus is, and to identify who needs to be quarantined. There is no way faster to choke the virus than to effectively identify and quarantine the sick and exposed. This is even much more effective than lockdowns.
• Cooperate with contact tracing efforts. If you get a phone call, talk to the people and help them to put an end to this virus. It's all about identifying the sick and the exposed so that further death can be avoided. Talking to these people can saves lives.
• Download a contact tracing app. Our human contact tracers could use our help. If you live in one of 17+ states participating in the Google/Apple contacting trace program, this app can help you to identify when you are exposed to the virus, and considerably speed up contact tracing -- and these apps protect your privacy as well. You could probably try to get your own state to participate if they aren't already.
• Educate others. Information is power. If you can get others to adopt these behaviors, then the virus would have no chance.

STEP 3: Avoid doing actions that work to spread the virus. Here's a quick list of what NOT to do.

• Go to crowded indoor places, with or without masks. Especially now, the chances of you catching and or spreading the virus are very high, even with masks on. You may have fun at your reunion, but then hate yourself later when two or more attendees die a month later. And an indoor rally is about the most dangerous event you can attend.
• Go to crowded outdoor places without masks. Outside air is very good at dispersing aerosols, but one can still be infected by the larger droplets in close quarters. Don't believe those that say that outdoor protests and rallies are safe. Even with masks on, you will want to keep at least 6 feet away from people outside. Most of the bigger profile crowded indoor and outdoor events over the past months have proven to increase case volume in the cities they are held.
• Ignore the virus. Some people see efforts to stop the virus as infringements on their freedoms, so they'll try to go about their lives as if there is no virus. We shouldn't be forcing people to comply, but if you truly want to limit the spread, this is the last thing you'll want to do.
• Mock those who are working to stop the virus. Just don't do it. You wouldn't want to inadvertently inspire someone to stop fighting the virus.
• Count solely on the vaccine. This will not be available to most of us for months. We will still need to be vigilant. As the vaccine starts to take hold, we will be able to relax our efforts and move back to normal ... however that time has not yet come.
• Propagate misinformation. You may not be directly contributing to the spread, but we humans are a social bunch. We learn by example. If you post something on social media that says the virus is a hoax, someone is going to read it and believe you, and they're going to go out and get someone sick. Before you share that article, idea, argument, or whatever, first ask yourself the Anti-Hype test question: does this help to stop the spread? Or does it increase the spread? If the latter, then don't post it, as you will fall into the nefarious trap and contribute to the problem. Not posting it is about the best thing you can do to stop it from propagating.

When this is all over -- and it will end, and we will one day return to normal -- we will all be able to look back and see what happened. We will have 20/20 hindsight (sorry for the pun). And we will have a full knowledge of how we fared -- we will know if we helped or hindered. Decide now where you'd like to be remembered, and act now. Time is short, and the next couple of months will be very difficult and sad. It's not too late to minimize death and end this virus together.