Coronavirus Newsletter - Lockdowns

 

General Update / Lockdowns / Sweden and South Korea / The Future

Today I'm going to talk about lockdowns. I hate them, and I hope we can avoid them going ahead. But how? I can tell you exactly what we must do to avoid the upcoming Christmas Lockdown, and it's not too late.

But first ... going on now:

General Update

It's not looking good for the US. The third wave is officially underway. We still have time to stop it, but I doubt it's going to happen. This newsletter is one last-ditch effort to get people to listen. Take a look at these stats. 

As usual, I get a lot of information from the New York Times Coronavirus Map Dashboard. You may need to set up a free account to see this dashboard.

Looking at the new case counts per capita: 

• The lowest point of recovery at the end of the second wave (mid-September) was slightly higher than the peak of the first wave -- and this is the point from which the third wave begins. Really sad.
• The five worst states right now are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, and Nebraska.
• The five best states right now seem to be: Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Hawaii, New York.
• My state of North Carolina is almost back up to where it peaked in mid-July. I'm not sure how much of this is due to the Trump rally last month, but I'm certain it's the main reason for the influx in Forsyth and surrounding counties.

Looking at deaths per capita: 

• The US is now 8th in the world (not counting San Marino and Andorra, whose populations are too small for comparison).
• The world average total deaths per million is 142.2, and in the US, we only have five states below the world average: Alaska, Vermont, Wyoming, Maine, Hawaii.
• The Five worst states for current death rates: North Dakota, Arkansas, Missouri, South Dakota, Kansas.
• The Five best states for current death rates: Maine, Connecticut, New York, Oregon, New Jersey.

For a really cool breakdown of our current third wave, check out this impressive overview from the NY Times. It contains a graphic that shows the cases per capita throughout the US from March 15 to October 13. It's such a cool graphic, I wish I could embed it here. While watching, you should repeat to yourselves, "The virus is disappearing." If you want to get a taste of reality and an idea of what's going on now in this nation, you should take a look at that link. (Or you can ignore it and find out what comes next the hard way.)

Lockdowns

Coming back to the discussion at hand, I'll first remind you what the main goal of epidemiology is: to get R(t) < 1.0, or in other words, bring down active cases in order to eradicate the virus. (If you don't know what this means, I strongly suggest reading my explanation at the link.) Anything working against this is what I call the Anti Hype.

One could, of course, always institute a lockdown -- that always drastically drops R(t), but in many ways it's like using a sledge hammer to screw in a nail, because it has so many side effects. Lockdowns kill economies. They cause isolation and depression, which can lead to suicides and other deaths.

You should check out (again, NY Times) this article showing how COVID-19 does not account for all excess deaths in New York and New Jersey. Many of the extra extra deaths may be due to lockdown-related pressures.

Here's just one picture of how our economy has performed because of the lockdown. This is not normal:

But at the time, it was necessary. The nationwide lockdown (in most states) successfully slowed down the spread of the virus, giving us time to prep our hospitals and to help us reach warming temperatures, which considerably slowed down the spread over the summer.

In March, R(t) for the US got scary high ... peaking at about 9.5 in mid-March ... we had no other choice but to lock down. The effects of the lockdown took a couple of weeks, and then R(t) dropped like a rock week after week: 4.1, 2.3, 1.6, 1.3. Beginning of May it was around 1.2. At the end of May after we had started opening up, it briefly got down to 0.996 ... those were an exciting couple of weeks. But then the 2nd wave hit. But get this ... during the second wave, R(t) peaked at around 1.13 -- not really that bad, but still > 1.0. I really think warmer temperatures helped to keep R(t) low.

When mask wearing became more prominent, it brought down R(t) back down to 0.991 in September. We were doing a lot better! But now, that appears to have come to an end, and now we got colder temperatures knocking on our door. Last I checked, R(t) was at 1.02 and rising. Not bad, but a really bad sign if we don't nip this in the bud.

I have every reason to believe that if we take no action, R(t) will get back up toward 9.5, and it will force another lockdown ... a Christmas Lockdown. And this will make all of 2020 up to now look like nothing. This isn't fear-mongering -- just cold, hard math and science.

But it's not too late to avoid a lockdown. All we have to do is whatever it takes to get R(t) < 1.0. Even if we keep it at 0.999, there isn't going to be a lockdown.

If we are smart, we can keep the economy open AND kill off this virus at the same time.

Sweden and South Korea

Several times now, you've seen me compare Sweden and South Korea ... two countries that have implemented very little lockdown measures have very different results.

South Korea: total deaths per million currently sits at 9. (Yeah ... you read that right. Compare that with the US figure of 674 -- which is 75 times higher than South Korea's.) With no lockdowns, South Korea has used a combination of testing, contact tracing/quarantining, and wearing masks. Similarly, Japan has a similar record (13 deaths per million) from mainly wearing masks, social distancing, and really good hygiene -- and also, no lockdowns.

South Korea (and several other countries) have shown that it's possible to keep the economy open AND keep deaths down to a minimum. Throughout the year, R(t) < 1.0 for most of the time. This is through "smart opening." Say it with me now ... smart smart smart smart smart.

Sweden: total deaths per million is at 585 (13th place in the world) -- which is 65 times the amount of death than South Korea. They kept most everything open, didn't do much testing, and they still wear hardly any masks at all. Throughout the year, R(t) > 1.0 for most of the time. This is what I would call a "dumb opening." Say it with me ... dum dum dum dum dum.

And what rubs sand in our wounds ... the US had a lockdown and we're still faring worse than Sweden.

BTW, here is a kind-of positive newsletter on Sweden's current state. I like it because it describes measures that Sweden has taken that are not really that readily shared by the media ... such as shutting down schools for older high-school students, which likely helped to reduce R(t).

But looking at Sweden's numbers, they're starting to rise again, so ideas of them hitting herd immunity are looking doubtful, and I don't think their story is over yet.

Also, NYC, which has also been thought to have reached herd immunity by some is starting to have some unsettling new outbreaks.

Plus, we can say goodbye to herd immunity as we begin to hear more stories of people catching COVID-19 twice.

The Future

So, what comes next? It's all up to us. Are we okay with a Christmas Lockdown? If so, we can keep on doing what we're doing now and keep R(t) > 1.0 (Anti Hype).

Or we can choose to do a few simple things to get R(t) back under 1.0. And yes ... wearing masks is the simplest way we can accomplish this. IHME estimates we're nearing 70% mask coverage. If we can get this up to over 90%, it can really help to turn the tide.

What also helps: testing and contact tracing. If your state has a reputable tracing app (Apple/Google technology), then download it and turn it on -- if enough of us do it, it could make a difference.

I know that eventually, we will do what's needed. In Spain, when the 2nd wave was getting bad, they got up to over 90% mask coverage, and their numbers are starting to turn around. Here in NC, at Appalachian State University, a healthy 19-year-old student died, which triggered everybody wanting to wear masks.

If we wear masks now, we can avoid a Christmas Lockdown. If, on the other hand we wait until we see all the Christmas deaths, then it will have already been too late.

So, it's really up to you. I know most of you reading this are tired of hearing about COVID. And many of my readers have stopped reading because they see this as having become anti-Trump and they can't handle the cold, hard facts. But it really is up to us to take action on our own and protect our vulnerable.

This and maybe next week are probably going to be the last newsletters where I try earnestly to get you to join the fight against COVID and turn things around. Get R(t) < 1.0. Then after that, I will probably become more subdued ... realizing that nobody is listening. And then later when many will say, "None of us saw this coming," little happy me is not going to be silent.

Information is available NOW to all who really want to know. I've inundated you with a bunch of links. If you still think this is a hoax, then get educated. I can bring you to the water, but I can't make you drink. You can open your eyes NOW as to what is about to happen, and not get caught off guard when it all goes down.