Coronavirus - Random Facts

General Update / Random Facts

Today, I'm going to take it a little easy -- Thanksgiving and all that. I realize we're about to enter a really rough patch over the next two or three months, after which I expect we will all learn a lot more about this pandemic. I'm a little distressed that there still remain some who just don't get it. It's a shrinking minority, but still there, and still helping the virus to spread. We only need enough of us to get R(t) < 1.000 in order to protect more American lives.

So today, I'm going to hit you with a whole bunch of random facts that you either don't already know, or you may need a reminder.

But first, recent happenings ...

General Update

The good news is that new cases are trying to slow down. I'm not sure if it's a testing ceiling or the result of partial lockdowns in several states, but it could be a good development. Even active cases are trying to slow down. Hopefully it's not just a Thanksgiving Day lull in reporting ... we'll find out in a few days.

Cases per capita over the last 7 days:

• 5 worst states = North Dakota, Wyoming, New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota.
• 5 best states = Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, South Carolina.
• My state: North Carolina is 8th from the best -- so, yay! My county of Forsyth is no longer in the top 20 in the state for cases.

Deaths per capita over the last 7 days:

• 5 worst states = South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska.
• 5 best states = Vermont, New Hampshire, Hawaii, California, Maine
• The US is in 7th place for total deaths per capita, and it looks like we'll remain there for a while. Belgium is #1 with 0.14% of their entire population dead.

Random Facts

Okay -- so here we go -- random facts for your enlightenment -- in no particular order.

• The Pfizer vaccine comes in 2 doses three weeks apart, and it could make you sick for a few days.
• It will take months to fully distribute the vaccines, but we could have the virus fully under control by May.
• The first three vaccines very close to being finished are use completely different methods to fight the virus -- each ingenious ideas and effective. It won't matter which one we take, and all three (and more) will be welcome.
• The election is over and the virus is still here.
• The IMF has projected GDP growth for all countries for 2020. Here is a list of the countries I've been following, and their GDP growth:
• China = +1.9%
• South Korea = -1.9%
• US = -4.3%
• Sweden = -4.7%
• Japan = -5.3%
• Brazil = -5.8%
• Germany = -6.0%
• New Zealand = -6.1%
• Belgium = -8.3%
• UK = -9.8%
• India = -10.3%
• Italy = -10.6%
• Spain = -12.8%
• Peru = -13.9%
• So far, 36 US congressmen have tested positive for the coronavirus. Out of the Senate, all 8 are Republican. Out of the House, 18 are Republican, and 10 are Democrat.
• Trump was praised in April for saving thousands if not millions of lives. At the end of April, we were up to 65,266 deaths. Since then we have had over 205,000 more deaths.
• In another two weeks, our average daily death counts will pass our earlier peek in April.
• About 20% of those who catch the virus experience adverse effects for months after recovering ... in some cases, people report feeling sicker than when they actually had the virus. This is called "Long Covid" or "Covid Long Hauler."
• Sweden actually did institute some restrictions including:
• Banning public gatherings with 50 or more people.
• Recommending smaller gatherings to use risk assessments and institute mitigation methods.
• Encouraging social distancing -- working from home, etc.
• Moving secondary schools and colleges to remote learning (but not primary schools).
• Also -- earlier this week, Sweden increased their restrictions: no more than 8 allowed in public gatherings.
• The United States is the only "rich" country that has yet to get active cases down near zero. Other countries have gotten their cases to low levels before suffering resurgences.
• Only four states have deaths per capita lower than the world average: Vermont, Maine, Alaska, Hawaii.
• The virus doesn't care about the purpose of any meetings, any righteous convictions, or bravery. It kills indiscriminately.
• There is no evidence that any country has reached herd immunity. Though some cities may have obtained this. The 20% threshold theory has been proven to be incorrect.
• As of 10/3/2020, the US has had almost 300,000 excess deaths for 2020. Yet, some people still say that US excess deaths are low for the year. This is because they're comparing a 3Q number and projecting linearly to get a low yearly number without realizing that by far deaths tend to be highest during 4Q.
• One estimate has that over 30% of the US population have contracted the virus -- much higher than the "official" 4%.

I hope you enjoy these. I'll be back with more next week.

Coronavirus Newsletter - What Can You Do To Stop the Spread?

General Update / What Can You Do?

The next couple of months are going to be painful, and sadness is going to hit most of us. I'm now up to two people who I know that have died, and this third wave has just begun. Even with a vaccine coming shortly, we still have to be vigilant to avoid as much death as we can in the coming weeks. If you haven't gotten there yet, you will most likely soon start to wonder, "What do I have to do to end all this?" We'll take a closer look after this update.

General Update

Cases are still rising in the US, but for the first time, it appears that we're starting to slow down a little. I'm not sure if it's because we've reached another testing ceiling, or if we're starting to see the effects of recently installed partial lockdowns in several states. Our death counts have officially met and passed our peak from the second wave, and it'll be another month before they slow down.

Per capita cases over the past week:

• The five worst states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Iowa, Nebraska. (Extra points for anyone to find where I grabbed the picture at the top from.)
• The five best states are: Hawaii, Maine, Vermont, Virginia, Oregon.
• My state of North Carolina is still spiking. And so is my county of Forsyth (still in 12th place in the state). (My family is hunkering down.)

Per capita deaths over the past week:

• The five worst states are: South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Wisconsin. (Stay away from that area -- really.)
• The five best states are: Hawaii, Vermont, Alaska, New Hampshire, Maine.
• In my state of North Carolina, deaths might be trying to go down -- it's kind of random.
• The US is now in 8th place for total deaths at around 0.08% of our population. Over this past week, it's been going up and down between 7th and 9th place with the UK and Italy surpassing us and Chile going back under us. There are about 6 countries real close to each other in this range.

What Can You Do?

In any kind of disaster, it's human nature to feel bad about what's going on and to want to do something about it. It happened with 9/11, and it is happening with many of us now, though there remains a large minority still catching up. 

So, what exactly can we do now? Are you ready to do your civic duty and help protect the vulnerable? If we work together, we can bring an end to this very quickly. We've seen it in South Korea, China, Japan, and many other countries. It's very possible -- and now we even know how to attack this disease while avoiding a lockdown at the same time, but it would take cooperation from nearly anyone.

How do these other countries do it and come out with much less death per capita than our country is doing right now? To put it simply ... the general public, themselves, are taking it seriously and they are working together. They are instituting correct behaviors that fight the virus, and they are helping each other to learn, remember, and act out what needs to be done. And it really isn't that tough.

STEP 1: Get educated. While we're being bombarded with misinformation, you can still do your own research. How does this virus work? What are its weaknesses? What are its strengths? What spreads it the most? What curbs its spread? I've known the answers for months, and have tried to share this info with you bit by bit. And all the information you need is available -- all waiting patiently for you to learn as well. It's not that hard, and I will summarize the big steps here.

First off, if you haven't already done so, I strongly recommend that you read the two most important newsletters I've written, primers -- if you will:

• The Simplicity -- learn what the Goal of epidemiology is. I'll tell you right now -- it's to do whatever it takes to get R(t) < 1.0, or in other words, reduce the number of active cases. If we accomplish this one Goal, then mathematically, the virus kills itself off.
• The Anti-Hype -- learn about the nefarious forces that are working to upset our one Goal. If you can come to understand how misinformation works, you can learn to combat it. And there is a very simple test -- if an idea or concept reduces the spread of the virus, then it must be good. However, if an idea or concept actually increases the spread and maximizes death, it is most likely part of this Anti-Hype.

STEP 2: Do the things that help to limit the spread. Here's a quick list.

• Wear masks. This is probably the easiest way you can participate in the fight against the virus. It's more effective than most people think. We're at an estimated 70% coverage nationwide. I'll leave it up to you to do your own research on these points (see STEP 1), but I'll still give you links to my blabs for some optional reading.
• Social distance as much as you can. This may mean staying at home, working from home, refraining from visiting friends in person, keeping distance, etc. It's all about reducing vectors of spread. You'll never know when you're the one spreading the virus until it's too late. Note that this is a temporary state until we get this much more under control. Keep in mind that Korea, China, Japan, etc., are pretty much open, but playing it safe. We can, too.
• Get tested if you think you're sick or exposed. This is the fastest way to identify where the virus is, and to identify who needs to be quarantined. There is no way faster to choke the virus than to effectively identify and quarantine the sick and exposed. This is even much more effective than lockdowns.
• Cooperate with contact tracing efforts. If you get a phone call, talk to the people and help them to put an end to this virus. It's all about identifying the sick and the exposed so that further death can be avoided. Talking to these people can saves lives.
• Download a contact tracing app. Our human contact tracers could use our help. If you live in one of 17+ states participating in the Google/Apple contacting trace program, this app can help you to identify when you are exposed to the virus, and considerably speed up contact tracing -- and these apps protect your privacy as well. You could probably try to get your own state to participate if they aren't already.
• Educate others. Information is power. If you can get others to adopt these behaviors, then the virus would have no chance.

STEP 3: Avoid doing actions that work to spread the virus. Here's a quick list of what NOT to do.

• Go to crowded indoor places, with or without masks. Especially now, the chances of you catching and or spreading the virus are very high, even with masks on. You may have fun at your reunion, but then hate yourself later when two or more attendees die a month later. And an indoor rally is about the most dangerous event you can attend.
• Go to crowded outdoor places without masks. Outside air is very good at dispersing aerosols, but one can still be infected by the larger droplets in close quarters. Don't believe those that say that outdoor protests and rallies are safe. Even with masks on, you will want to keep at least 6 feet away from people outside. Most of the bigger profile crowded indoor and outdoor events over the past months have proven to increase case volume in the cities they are held.
• Ignore the virus. Some people see efforts to stop the virus as infringements on their freedoms, so they'll try to go about their lives as if there is no virus. We shouldn't be forcing people to comply, but if you truly want to limit the spread, this is the last thing you'll want to do.
• Mock those who are working to stop the virus. Just don't do it. You wouldn't want to inadvertently inspire someone to stop fighting the virus.
• Count solely on the vaccine. This will not be available to most of us for months. We will still need to be vigilant. As the vaccine starts to take hold, we will be able to relax our efforts and move back to normal ... however that time has not yet come.
• Propagate misinformation. You may not be directly contributing to the spread, but we humans are a social bunch. We learn by example. If you post something on social media that says the virus is a hoax, someone is going to read it and believe you, and they're going to go out and get someone sick. Before you share that article, idea, argument, or whatever, first ask yourself the Anti-Hype test question: does this help to stop the spread? Or does it increase the spread? If the latter, then don't post it, as you will fall into the nefarious trap and contribute to the problem. Not posting it is about the best thing you can do to stop it from propagating.

When this is all over -- and it will end, and we will one day return to normal -- we will all be able to look back and see what happened. We will have 20/20 hindsight (sorry for the pun). And we will have a full knowledge of how we fared -- we will know if we helped or hindered. Decide now where you'd like to be remembered, and act now. Time is short, and the next couple of months will be very difficult and sad. It's not too late to minimize death and end this virus together.

Coronavirus Newsletter -- Vaccine Update

General Update / Vaccine Update

Really good news coming out this past week. A new vaccine almost ready to be distributed, and more coming shortly. A possible nose spray to help protect us from daily exposure. A new antibody treatment that looks promising.

However, we still need to be vigilant ... I'll explain more after the break.

General Update

The numbers are still going up like crazy. The only good news is that deaths could be a lot higher, but give it another couple of weeks. Cases are through the roof, and that's bad -- deaths are lagging cases by about a month in Europe and other places, and now it's our turn.

Cases per capita over the past week:

• The worst five states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Wyoming, Wisconsin.
• The best five states are: Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, and California.
• My state of North Carolina is at its highest case count right now, but other states are much worse. My county of Forsyth ranks 12th right now in the state in recent cases per capita, and is at its highest rate right now.

Deaths per capita over the past week:

• The worst five states are: North Dakota (whoa nellie -- stay away from there), South Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, Kansas.
• The best five states are: Vermont, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Maine, California.
• Deaths in North Carolina are at their highest, and so are the deaths in Forsyth -- but still relatively low compared to the rest of the United States.
• Overall, the US has moved up to 7th place as of yesterday, but it looks like the UK is going to fly by us and push us back to 8th any day now. We've been going back and forth between 7th and 8th place for a month now.

Vaccine Update

And now back to the vaccine. Good news ... right? 90% effectiveness?

This vaccine comes from BioNTech (Germany) and Pfizer (USA). They say they can provide 30-40 million doses of the virus in the next couple of months, and possibly up to 1.3 billion doses over a year's time. But note that this vaccine comes in two doses. You get one shot, and then another one three weeks later. So, these doses would only help 15-20 million people in the next couple of months, and 650 million people by the end of next year.

You may notice that's noticeably lower than 7 billion people in the world ... but remember, we only need to get R(t) < 1.0. If we choke the virus, it will go away on its own. Can Pfizer and BioNTech make these doses fast enough to save lives?

The bad news is that it doesn't help those who have already caught the virus. All those who are currently infected are still in trouble. (Though the new antibody treatment might be able to help -- as long as hospitalization figures can be kept down.) I am somewhat saddened to think about the slew of deaths about to play out over the next month -- nothing can stop that now. It's really depressing me.

We're also not sure yet how effective this vaccine will be on older people. Younger folks in these studies have the advantage of healthier immune systems and more T-Cells, etc. It's very possible that older folks will have less of a response to this vaccine -- but hopefully it will be enough.

Also, the pool supporting the 90% figure is actually pretty small. It does have a lot of credibility because of the size of the trials, but there are most likely several factors that have yet to be considered. In practice, we could very well see lower efficacy.

Since the studies aren't completely finished, this and other vaccines coming up can only be distributed on an emergency basis -- as decided by the FDA. This means that anyone receiving the vaccine will have to be monitored, such that if any ill effects pop up, the vaccine can be halted as soon as possible. But at least so far, this vaccine seems to be free of major side effects -- which is usually determined early on in the trials.

This vaccine also needs to be kept at very cold temperatures, which could be a challenge to distribute.

Someone like me -- early 50s with only minor issues, is likely NOT to be eligible for the vaccine for another couple of months. So, dang. Older people will get it first, and other vulnerable folks -- the ones most likely to die if they catch the virus.

Trump is taking credit for the success of this vaccine, but does he deserve it. He's right in the area of this being a major undertaking in such a short amount of time. He's also right about other similar vaccines coming out that will most likely be very effective as well. More than one vaccine is more than welcome.

However, there is much debate over how much Trump actually helped. BioNTech and Pfizer have yet to receive any money at all from Operation Warp Speed. They do have an agreement, though, and can stand to earn as much as $2 billion from the government as they distribute the vaccine. One could argue that this was sufficient financial incentive to get their act together and produce the vaccine sooner.

Also, had this played out differently and if we had nipped this thing in the bud in February/March (like South Korea did), then we wouldn't be needing these vaccines. We didn't see any Ebola vaccines to come out of our 2014 outbreak in the US -- because we eradicated it before it could spread (what a concept!). Though -- I just learned that Ebola vaccines have been produced in the past year ... hooray!

Can we trust the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine? The data seems to show that it's safe, and it may even be effective. I would not be afraid to take this vaccine.

However, don't forget these items of bad news:

• We don't know how long this new Covid19 vaccine will be effective -- the antibodies could very well wear off anywhere from 6-12 months (or hopefully more) and allow us to be infected later on.
• We're not sure yet how effective this will be on any upcoming mutations -- though if we make one version of the vaccine, it can be tweaked as needed.
• We're not sure if the new mink mutation in Denmark will mess up the vaccine. Some experts think that specific mutation can render all vaccines useless. We could kill off one strain and allow this strain to take its place.
• Remember that the distribution of the vaccine will be slow at first. (And several people that you know are likely to die anyway in the next month -- and so close to having been able to receive the vaccine!)
• Relaxing now will only speed up the spread of the virus, leading to more deaths before the distribution of the vaccine can commence.

So, it's imperative to remember to behave in certain ways to get R(t) < 1.0. We need active cases to go down -- always -- no matter what develops. We can't wait to rely solely on the vaccine. We will need to employ several tactics in our arsenal against the virus. Maybe we'll quickly get that daily nose spray that we can use until we can get vaccinated. We can always wear masks -- it's still a very cheap and effective way to get R(t) down. We can continue washing our hands, and social distance as much as possible. And we can always cooperate with contact tracers, and if we get sick, make sure to alert all our friends to let them know they may be infected.

This is far from over, and we should not lose sight of the final goal. R(t) < 1.0. But soon, this and other vaccines will be able to help us in the fight.

How Is Biden Taking the Lead So Late?

Many seem to be sincerely surprised that Biden is slowly emerging victorious. Some even think it's some kind of fraud. And this is where I'm surprised, because what's happening now is exactly what I've seen in all of the recent elections back to 2000. There have always been states that take longer to count votes than other states. And this time -- we knew this going into the election -- it's exacerbated by many more mail-in ballots due to the coronavirus pandemic. It just takes more time to count all those mail-in ballots -- mainly because it takes more time to vet them, checking signatures, whether the person has already voted, and all other measures in place to make sure fraud and mistakes aren't happening.

Imagine this ... you're running the vote count for your state, and you've just finished election day. You got all your in-person votes. You're counting your early votes and checking the provisionals (ballots with issues). And you've got this desk with a gigantic pile of main-in votes. (Well -- maybe several desks.) How long should you wait before cutting off counting votes from that pile?

Or how about this? You're in line to vote where things shut down at 7PM. The line is moving very slowly, and it's 6:59PM. At 7PM, should the election officer cut off the line and send everyone home? Or should they let the remaining people vote?

There really is no difference between the two scenarios. If you're in line by 7PM, you're going to get your chance to vote, even if it takes three hours. And those votes are going to be counted.

And that tall stack of mail-in votes? There is absolutely nothing in the Constitution, nor in any state law that says that counting those votes has to finish by midnight Election Day. That's something crazy people have made up. The first deadline is December 14, when the designated electors are supposed to vote.

On Election night, Trump made the unprecedented move to claim victory in at least five states where he was in the lead, but where the states were nowhere near done counting the votes, and where no reputable forecaster had called them -- nothing I'd ever seen before in my life. Even in 2000 with Bush v. Gore, no action was taken until Florida had finished their first count.

But okay ... I need to keep this short and get back to the OP question. Trump was in the lead early on and was set for a landslide, but then the votes started flipping toward Biden. How is this possible?

It's really quite simple if you consider the following:

• The coronavirus epidemic inspired several states to create and/or expand their absentee ballot process. My state of NC expanded its deadline for ballots to arrive in the mail (provided the envelopes are postmarked by Election Day). The idea was to make it easier for people to avoid having to show up in person to vote and spread the virus.
• Republicans were more likely to show up in person on Election Day to vote. I usually do this, but not this year (I did absentee ballot and hand-delivered it.)
• Democrats were more likely to use mail ballots, as Democrats tend to err on the side of caution, and Republicans tend to err on the side of not fearing the virus.
• Big cities tend to be predominantly Democrat. Thus, a LOT of mail-in ballots come from big cities, and they lean heavily Democrat. (And LOTS of mail-in ballots take longer to count.)

Do you see it yet? For most states who are slow in counting, the in-person votes and perhaps early votes were counted first, which leaned heavily Republican. And that gigantic stack of mail-in votes that sat on all those desks? They take longer to vet and count, and they lean heavily Democrat. So, of course it was always going to look like a gigantic Trump lead followed by a "miraculous" Biden comeback.

But don't you fret. If you're worried about fraud or Trump losing, please consider the following:

• In Arizona, Maricopa County still has a ton of outstanding mail-in ballots, and the city of Phoenix is known for its Republican population. We could see Biden's lead shrink, and Trump can still win the state. (Funny, peeps aren't asking for the vote counting to stop there.)
• In Georgia, they still have to count outstanding military ballots, which will most likely lean Trump -- which would eat at Biden's lead, and possibly flip the state back to red.
• In North Carolina, I don't think there are enough outstanding ballots for Biden to get in the lead.
• Also remember that all these ballots should be well documented. After the fact, there will be ample time to recount, re-vet, and help us feel better about the whole process. Bad ballots will be thrown out (as they always are), and any fraud will be revealed.

Coronavirus Newsletter - Remembering Joey

General Update / Remembering Joey

Today I devote my newsletter to one of the most interesting friends I've ever known, but first ...

General Update

The numbers in the US keep going up. We've surpassed the 10 million mark for total coronavirus cases. Deaths are still relatively low, but starting to rise, lagging behind the most recent surge by about a month. The US was briefly in 7th place a couple of days ago in deaths per million, but just now got pushed back down to 8th place where we were last week. Looks like Argentina is passing through.

Cases per capita in the last week:

• The five worst states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Montana
• The five best states are: Vermont, Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, New York (tired of seeing Vermont on this list?)
• My state of NC is still hanging in there -- cases keep rising, and we're breaking daily death records, but still a slow rate of growth. I wish cases were going down.

Deaths per capita in the last week:

• The five worst states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas, Wisconsin
• The five best states are: Vermont, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Maine, Virginia

Also, here are two interesting news articles. The first could be very bad news -- a new mutation of COVID19 in Denmark that may make it more difficult for humans to make antibodies. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54842643

However, the second could be very good news -- a possible prophylactic nose spray that could help end the pandemic. I'm going to give this one another week and perhaps report on it in more detail next week.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/health/coronavirus-ferrets-vaccine-spray.html

Remembering Joey

Now, for the rest of this newsletter, I'd like to remember Joey, the first friend I've lost to the coronavirus. Up to now, I've heard of people dying, but out of the first 200,000, not one of them were close to me -- perhaps a couple of deaths affected people I knew, but this death, which occurred earlier this week, was the first to affect me personally.

I was in Joey's second inner circle. Very few made it into the primary inner circle -- I was always too busy to qualify. But his death hits me just as hard, and it's hard to imagine not seeing him again.

So, let me tell you about Joey.

I met him the very first day I went to church in Winston Salem -- back in the spring of 2004, and it was very interesting. He latched on to my wife and me immediately, and I thought he was strange. He was one of those kinds of guy ... rubs most everyone the wrong way in a first impression. But guess what ... I'm that type of guy, too. Maybe he sensed that and tried to become friends immediately.

I knew he was different when we were all sitting in church, and behind us, he suddenly broke out in a verse of "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" in the heaviest tenor Bronx accent you could imagine. And yes, it could be said that he was a few cards short of a full deck, but that's what made him Joey.

But wait ... back then it was just Joe -- not Joey. Only the privileged few earned the right to call him Joey.

As you may gather from the picture above, he was probably the most patriotic person I have ever met -- definitely staunch conservative. He loved guns. He loved Trump.

He was one to go up often to bear testimony at my church, sometimes to the dismay of many of the people. He would tell us the most interesting stories -- about living in New York -- how he came to join our church -- how he was expected to continue the "family business" and how they let him get religion, walk away, and live. I was never sure how much of these stories were true, but they were certainly fun to listen to, and he almost always had good messages hidden in there.

He sang in our choir, and he couldn't sing. It would always come out high pitch (like a lady singing). Several wanted the choir director to tell him not to come, but most of us didn't have the heart to tell him no. (Like that Barney Fife episode.) We tried to give him a couple of lessons, but it was no use ... his brain just didn't work that way. I always thought he added an ethereal angel-like addition to our performances. I was just impressed that he would come when most men stay away from choir.

Did I mention that he loved guns? It was the one area where he was Einstein. He could tell you anything about any kind of gun. The one time I visited his apartment he had a wall full of guns. It was ... impressive. Though, they were all replicas or BB guns. Once he described to me how a thumb-print mechanism could unlock the trigger, so that only you were able to shoot the gun.

Every now and then in church, when it was asked, "Does anyone have an announcement" he would say, "I have an announcement. There's a knife and gun show coming this weekend. Does anyone want to go with me?"

In hindsight, I regret never taking him up on the offer.

He scared some of the church members, but I knew he was harmless. The guns thing was the one thing his brain picked up on ... kind of a savant type of thing.

I met him back when he was still new in our church -- he still held on to Catholic views, and every now and then he'd struggle with doctrines that opposed Catholicism. It got to be so bad that he got angry and left. I didn't see him for a few years as he attended other churches.

But then he came back, and this time he had changed. The anger was mostly gone. This time, he wanted everyone to call him Joey, and he hugged everyone who would hug him back.

When our church boundaries changed, he ended up being moved to a different time slot -- same building. But he still poked his head into our specific service, and I would still get hugs.

I mentioned that he loves Trump -- right? Well, last year he told me the story about how he met Trump years ago -- well before he became president. According to him, they sat in a room and talked for hours about New York and other common interests. I still wonder if the story were true, and if Trump would remember him. Maybe they talked for only a few minutes? The details he provided were at least consistent with how I would picture such a Trump encounter transpiring.

Then came the coronavirus. Back in January (as I hear it), when he learned about the epidemic, and when Trump seemed to take it more seriously than anyone else, Joey stopped going to church. He knew he was in high risk groups, and he didn't want to take any chances. He chose to stay home and away from people. I'm not sure if he started venturing out a month ago, or if a neighbor gave him the virus, but he caught it.

I'm not sure if I mentioned here, but last month we had a coronavirus scare, and Joey was the main source of that scare. He had met someone who met someone who met someone who met our family over a short period of time. The second person in line caught the virus and is doing fine, and it appears to have stopped there, though other avenues of spread near me seem to have opened up. Many of my friends are reporting that they are positive. (And I got tested, myself today.)

Joey did fine until he had to go to the hospital. He was in for a few days, and was discharged. But then he had to come back, and that time he was put on a ventilator. A few days ago he died. We were all praying for him, but it was evidently his time to go.

Church just won't be the same without him.

Joey, thanks for all the pleasant memories. You will always be remembered.