As a fiscal conservative, I'm watching with great interest the apparent downfall of the Republican Party, which I once belonged to. In the 2020 election, the Party did make gains in the House but failed to take the majority, and they also lost the Senate and the presidency, giving near-full control to the Democratic Party.
In the wake of the Capitol storming, many people are now leaving the Republican Party. This NPR article gives some scary numbers. More than 4,600 Republicans removed their names from the Party in Colorado. 6,000 in North Carolina, 10,000 in Pennsylvania, and 5,000 in Arizona. And in red Utah, as many as 7,600. As one defector says,"it's just become the party of mean people." Another one says, "I would probably never vote for another Republican again." Yet another person defected because the Republican Party "turned their backs completely on Trump."
According to this Reuters article, over 60 former W. Bush officials have left the Party -- one saying, "The Republican Party as I knew it no longer exists. I'd call it the cult of Trump."
I left, myself, in January 2016, saying, "If this is what the Republican Party is becoming, I want no part of it." I changed my status to Unaffiliated. At the time I was very sad not to have a conservative party to call my own (a topic for later).
So, what's going on? Is the Republican Party falling apart? Will it continue to bleed members? Can the Party save itself? Perhaps, but by my reckoning, they must act now. One thing's for certain -- this exodus really did happen because of one man -- Donald Trump. Whether they like him or not, people are leaving either because they didn't want the Republican Party to incorporate Trump and his controversial policies, or because they feel the Party abandoned Trump. So ... yeah ... Trump, Trump, Trump.
In my specific case, if it had been just about any other candidate in 2016: Rubio, Carson, or even Cruz, I would have voted Republican -- 99% chance. I definitely did not want Hilary, and instead voted third party.
In 2020 I would have again most likely voted for any other candidate other than Trump or anyone who supported his controversial policies. Instead I chose to vote Biden, hoping the Republican Party would reboot and pick someone else for 2024.
I realize that most of my intended audience still likes Trump, and he did indeed accomplish some amazing things that only he could get away with: brokering a deal in the Middle East, diffusing the situation in North Korea. I get it.
But we've got to face it. Trump will never be president again. He's not going to get anywhere enough votes after the storming of the Capitol. You can see here that his average approval rating dropped like a rock just a couple of days after the event. Sure, he'd get his 30% base, but no independent, and definitely no Democrat is going to vote for man they believe tried to overturn the election along with the Constitution with very flimsy evidence of election fraud.
This also goes for any prominent Republican who supported Trump and his "Big Lie." That's what the majority of people are calling the whole election turnover attempt. Cruz and Hawley have absolutely no chance, and heaven forbid if Greene ever runs. While you may like these guys and would actually want them in the White House, I don't think they're electable. I sure wouldn't vote for any of them now.
Also, imagine this scenario: Trump, or someone else, breaks off and forms their own "Patriot" Party. What do you think would happen? That's right. The conservative vote would split. I'd probably vote Republican, a lot of you would vote for Trump, and the Democrats would win. 2024. 2028. And even 2032 ... we're looking at possibly two decades of Democrats enjoying free rein in our government before conservatives get their act together, and by then, good luck to our economy.
So How Can the Party Survive?
We first need to realize the true cause of the Republican Party's wound. It's not really Trump -- he's just the face of the real issue. When other people look at the Party, all they see is Inconsistency.
In late 2015 as Trump was pushing his presidential bid, most of the prominent Republican candidates were unified in their condemnation of Trump. They called him racist, xenophobic, radical, uncouth, and unelectable. They considered him to be a joke.
This was until December 2015 when Trump described his Muslim ban. At first everyone condemned this idea -- even Cruz. But then something happened. The candidates saw Trump's base increasing, and I think they did what they thought was best for their own careers. One candidate said, "Wait -- let's listen to Trump. He might be on to something with this ban." And then everything changed.
Trump didn't change -- the Republican Party changed and incorporated Trump and his controversial policies. The Party had first condemned Trump, and then they lost their spines. At least that's what the majority of the world is saying.
The number of conservatives who stayed consistent were few. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio continued to stand up to Trump throughout the election. Senator Romney stood up to Trump several times over the past four years, even voting to remove him from office. Senator Flake stood up to slow down the Kavanaugh hearings, and now retired, continues to criticize Trump.
These consistent few are held to be pariahs among most of the members of the Republican Party, but for a big chunk of frustrated conservatives (like me) and the rest of the world, these people are being held as heroes and exemplary models of integrity. These people actually have a spine!
And this is exactly where I see the Party surviving. Imagine if, for 2024, the Republicans put forth someone like Romney (he may be too old, himself) -- someone who people on the left might actually vote for. (Many Democrats have indeed said that they like Romney.)
Just think about it. Put on your game theory hats. If, as a Party, you had to choose between a nameless candidate who you knew would only get 30% of the vote, and another nameless one who could possibly get 60%, which one would you choose?
So ... if the Party is to survive, it needs to let go of Trump. It was a failed experiment that resulted in all power being taken away after four years (which is exactly what I had predicted in January 2016 would happen). Condemning Trump's election "Big Lie" and the resulting riot on the Capitol is the bare minimum for survival. Perhaps even someone like Cruz could find a way to redeem himself.
And then ... put forth a person in 2024 with so much integrity and leadership skills for whom it would be difficult NOT to vote.
It's up to you guys. You could stick with the man you love -- it's very easy to love Trump. But is it worth loving him more than the possibility of getting a conservative back in power? I believe there is somebody better. Does it really have to be Trump, when someone better could have a bigger chance of winning back the presidency?
I know ... I said I was done with my coronavirus newsletters, but don't worry. This is just a random coronavirus post, which I warned would come as needed.
It's no secret that I find Trump's record on coronavirus to be abysmal. And nearly every time I bring up my thoughts, someone invariably asks, "Well, what would you do differently that Trump hasn't already done?" I usually give a short answer like, "Well, just about ANYTHING." No one seems happy with that, so here we go ... now, I'm President of the United States, and it's up to me to get on top of this COVID19 pandemic. What would I do?
#1) Clear and consistent messaging from the top.
People deserve to know the facts. They don't need sugar coating and to be told lies like "we're doing just fine" and "the end is just around the corner." I would personally give frequent short updates, provide words of encouragement, and echo sound advice for fighting the pandemic. If necessary I would warn about misinformation and explain why errant allegations are wrong. I would present the message of "Let's work together to bring this pandemic to an end."
In my "private" life and tweets, I would remain consistent with the messages. None of this "masks are recommended" one day and "doesn't Mr. Johnny John look like an idiot in his mask?" the next day.
#2) Let my team of scientists and experts navigate the pandemic.
There is no place for politics in any kind of emergency. I would allow the CDC to perform to its full potential -- none of this altering their warnings to fit my agenda. I would let my coronavirus task force shine and have them appear frequently to help us get through the pandemic. I would listen to the council from these experts and provide them with what they needed in order to help bring us to the quickest end of the pandemic.
#3) Testing, testing, testing.
In order to be effective, testing needs to be done quickly with fast results so that we can have the much-needed information to fight this disease at the source. Today, a sick person must wait a couple of days just for an appointment to be tested, and then wait a few days for the results to come back. By then, he could have infected several other people.
A person should be able to wake up one morning, decide to get tested, and get results by the end of the day. And all completely free of charge. I would help provide whatever was necessary to bring this to pass.
#4) Masks everywhere.
This one is specific to COVID19 and other respiratory viruses. I would encourage mask wearing anywhere in public in inside or crowded situations. (In other words, masks not required outside when people can remain far, far apart. And no masks for younger children.)
I wouldn't push mandates, but would urge, "It's the right thing to do." Though, I would support a business's right to refuse service for patrons not wearing masks.
Masks would no longer be encouraged (locally) when certain numbers drop below specified thresholds.
#5) Effective contact tracing (behind the scenes) and quarantining.
Our current team of contact tracers is so slow, the next generation of spread has already occurred by the time they finish their sleuthing. I would ensure that teams of contact tracers across the nation are adequately staffed and trained to speed up the process, so that they can actually stop the next vectors.
I would also urge the public to cooperate with contact tracing efforts, reminding them that it's one of the easiest ways we can work together to fight the virus.
I would also provide the message that quarantines should be honored, whether it be for five days or two weeks, and let people know that it's better, faster, and more effective to quarantine individuals than to resort to an economy-destroying lockdown of everyone.
#6) Nationwide secure contact tracing mobile app.
To aid our team of contact tracers, I would have a nationwide mobile app developed using a secure and private shell, much like the current Apple/Google shell being used in several countries throughout the world. And though it wouldn't be compulsory, I would encourage everyone to use it. (You can see my thoughts about privacy concerns and other considerations here. The Apple/Google shell actually protects your privacy more than just about any other app on your phone.)
This app would be able to identify some exposed individuals faster than human contact tracing. The indications would then help to quarantine individuals, and businesses would be allowed to require certain statuses for patronage.
Up to here, I think Biden will definitely up the game with steps #1-#4, and I suspect #5 may also be part of his behind-the-scenes plans, but I haven't heard anything about #6, which is kind of disappointing (to me, a process improvement/automation guru). Either way, Trump has woefully failed in all 6 steps.
#7) Financial support for people in quarantine.
Those forced or requested to go into quarantine should receive immediate financial support if they are unable to work from home. For every day off of work, they should receive the same payment they would have received. For exempt workers, credits would be paid to the companies so sick days can be preserved. (This may be subject to caps.)
No employer would be allowed to fire anyone for being placed in quarantine.
#8) Work to keep everything open.
Doing all of the above are all bare minimum requirements for getting on top of a disease like COVID19. It is what I frequently like to call "Stage 1 understanding." And it's been one of my biggest frustrations with my country's handling of this situation. We've been spending an inordinate amount of energy trying to get all Americans on the same page, but it's only the First Page. Failing to achieve this minimum has been a disaster, helping us to achieve one of the top ten spots for deaths per capita in the world.
The countries that have been successful have already incorporated steps #1-#7 in some shape or form, and in each case it helps to bring everyone to the Second Page or "Stage 2 understanding." With everyone paying attention, the people can then be educated on how to keep everything open while still navigating the plague, until it's entirely eradicated. I'm talking dining inside, schools open, less need of social distancing, masks not needed in some circumstances -- because people would be employing other mitigation factors such as increasing air flow in buildings to dissipate aerosols (some places in the US are already doing this, BTW).
If we had we instituted steps #1-#7 immediately starting in late January 2020 or maybe even early February, we could have AVOIDED all the lockdowns in March, and we would be enjoying positive GPD growth, and then we would have been a huge example to the rest of the world, which would have helped to inspire others to take similar measures and possibly even help to bring a worldwide end to the pandemic by the close of 2020.
We are only in our current situation because we let it get bad in the early stages, and it hasn't gotten better since.
#9) Continued Monitoring.
At the end of the pandemic, the job would not be done. Sure, masks would come off, the automated contact tracing app would be disabled, and so on, but teams would still be on the lookout for the next pandemic behind the scenes. And when the next one comes (and it will), we would be ready. It would be like invoking some Order 66 and the American citizens would immediately know to institute steps #1-#7 in order to achieve #8, kill off the plague, and save lives. Depending on the nature of the outbreak, any modified steps would be quickly communicated.
Final Thoughts
I realize that a lot of this relies on 20/20 hindsight (yeah -- boo!), which is very easy for me to do right now. When COVID19 first started out, we didn't really understand how bad it could get. Would mitigation measures harm or do good? Would we be reacting over "nothing"? Everyone throughout the world was slow to take this seriously: China, the WHO, the CDC. Even though it was novel and already causing death, people were just afraid of overreacting.
In only a couple of months, China had a breakout worse than all other SARS outbreaks that proceeded it until they admitted it existed and stopped trying to cover it up. And then they quickly clamped down on it with much success, but not before it was already unleashed to the rest of the world.
Other Asian countries such as Korea and Japan acted quickly -- masks came up, and just like an Order 66, the public seemed to already know what to do to stem the spread. This is because these countries had real experience from prior outbreaks. They knew what they did wrong previously and they made sure not to do it again. They WORKED TOGETHER.
In April 2020, I was willing to give Trump a Mulligan, because we haven't really had that experience with a deadly virus. (Except for Ebola, which was immediately eradicated in the US because of some awesome very fast action by our government behind the scenes -- we knew that bug was dangerous and took care of it from Day 1.) I could see that Trump was trying. Perhaps I would have likewise been caught off guard. I've learned most of my knowledge on outbreaks after March 1, when it was already too late. But then again, I probably would have been more open than Trump to listen to epidemiologists who were already sounding warning bells as early as January.
I did try to get people to support Trump in April, because he was kind-of going in the right direction with his daily briefings, though he was still struggling. I feared that if he were to ever give up, we'd be doomed, so I tried to get people to reinforce Trump's good actions and make him want to keep on going. But when he was ridiculed about the detergent, he gave up entirely, and after that (since May), he hasn't really done anything.
Well ... except for some of behind-the-scene things he did such as supplying certain emergency equipment, perhaps helping to get some financial aid passed, and also providing financial incentives to help produce a vaccine ... Trump does get praise for these actions. However, I see these as the super minimum things any president would have instituted, and so, I didn't include any of that in my steps above. Also, I did say I'm focusing on things Trump hasn't done that I would do. As it stands, we lost far more lives through Trump's inaction than we saved lives through what he did right.
However, I can say this going forward. We now have experience ... recent experience with a deadly pandemic, and hopefully we will be able to see our successes and our mistakes, and next time hopefully we'll do what we know works. If I were president, I would make sure it would happen as detailed above.
And now that we have come to the end of this blog post, I'm no longer president. It was fun while it lasted. Did I tell you they have really good breakfasts?
Yeah ... you read that right. I'm done. I've been writing these newsletters for months now -- first on my Facebook page, and then over here on this blog. It's been fun, but ... let's face it ... it's pretty much too late to do anything anymore. Just hunker down and wait for what's coming over the next couple of grim months. Plus, I need a break, and starting the first week in January, I'm going to launch a whole new and exciting initiative.
I'll continue doing my weekly model updates on my Facebook page (which last run showed us hitting 400k total deaths by around January 20-ish). And I'll continue updating my deaths per million graphs once a month going forward (on Facebook). And every now and then when I feel like it, I'll come back and give a few more "Coronavirus Updates."
So, one more general update, and then some closing thoughts.
General Update
It's bad out there ... just bad. Practically all states are red on the hotspot map, except for Maine, Vermont, and Hawaii.
Hospitals continue to fill up. You can check statuses on that here.
Cases per Capita -- last 7 days:
Worst States: Rhode Island, Indiana, Alaska (wha?), Idaho, Kansas
Best States: Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, Oregon, Washington
North Carolina: Cases have skyrocket this last week. Forsyth County is increasing, but not in the top 20 counties.
Deaths per Capita -- last 7 days:
Worst States: South Dakota, North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Rhode Island
Best States: Hawaii, Washington, Maine, Virginia, Vermont
The Pfizer vaccine is about to start rolling out, as it is now approved by the FDA for emergency use. Though, we're not entirely sure if it was under duress with President Trump's threats to fire the head of the FDA.
Most of my readers will not be eligible for the first round, and we'll run out of doses. But don't worry -- other vaccines are likely to be approved shortly.
Emergency use means that the government will continue to monitor the vaccine and halt it if it turns out to have too many adverse effects or turns us into zombies. Two possibly identified side effects may be intense allergic reactions for those who use epipens (but no reports of anaphylactic shock), and possibly Bell's Palsy (it may have been a coincidence, but it was statistically significant). If you want to learn more about these, check out this Reuters fact check.
Hopefully this and other vaccines will help get R(t) < 1.0 and kill off the virus.
Farewell
Okay -- time for final words.
The good news is that every day, more and more people get on board. A majority of the people are sincerely working hard to fight the virus. They wear their masks, practice social distancing, and do whatever else they understand to help out and do their part. We are now estimated to be at around 73% mask coverage -- higher from 70% a couple of weeks ago.
The bad news is that the other 20%-30% are still fighting this. They fear that their rights are being taken away. Or they believe that since they're under 55 years old, they have no need to be careful, and let the vulnerable people fend for themselves (it's their fault if they catch the virus).
Unfortunately, this minority is responsible for the vast majority (85%+) of the spread of the virus in our nation -- whether it be through spreading misinformation or the virus itself through sick or asymptomatic spread.
Sadly 27% of us not wearing masks still provides the virus plenty of fuel for spreading and maximizing death.
If you haven't already, I highly recommend reading the following three newsletters, which I consider to be by far the most important posts I've written concerning the fight against the virus.
What Can You Do To Stop the Spread? -- Learn the simple steps that *you* can do to help join the fight against the virus and save lives. You can also see a list of actions to avoid.
The Simplicity -- What is the main goal of fighting the virus? R(t) < 1.000. But what does that mean? Click here to learn more about what we've learned from several outbreaks in the past.
The Loudness -- Learn about the nefarious forces that are intentionally trying to use the pandemic to weaken our country. Once you learn to recognize the signs, you will instantly realize how *you* can help to fight the virus effectively.
By far, President Trump, Dr. Scott Atlas (a radiologist?), and a couple of rogue epidemiologists, are the most responsible for the spread of the virus in our nation. They have done so through their teachings, rhetoric, and actions. If you read those three articles and strive to understand them, then you, too, should be able to see this as well. Use these people as an example of what NOT to do.
I think it really will get better when Biden takes office in January. Then we will have much more consistent messaging coming from the top, and hopefully there will be a lot less confusion and nonsense coming from the minority.
We shall see. It's not too late to join the fight against the virus. Join the majority who are already doing it. Working together, we can stop this virus.
Well ... you all can stop this virus. I've already done more than my fair share to fight the most disruptive virus in my lifetime, and my conscious is fully clear. Eventually I'll be back after the dose of reality we're all going to get in the next few weeks. But for now, I'm going to enjoy Christmas. I'm going to relax. And hopefully this annoying cough that I've just now developed is going to go away.
I wish you all well, and I'll see y'all on the other side.
What do 2000, 2004, and 2016 have in common? They were all closer than the 2020 election. And still one month later, Trump is still trying to overturn the results? Why? What are his ultimate goals?
Before I continue ... a quick word to my conservative friends, of which there are many who sincerely just want to see Trump serve four more years. And I get it ... I hate it when my candidate loses. I really wanted Romney to win in 2012, but got four more years of Obama instead.
My friends are great ... and they give me a lot of leeway. But I am very concerned -- not only for our country, but also for my conservative friends, who I believe to be deceived by a charlatan. I've been trying since early 2016 trying to convince them that Trump is not the best pick for a conservative candidate, of which my friends are fully aware.
I am in no way concerned about Trump actually winning, but I am very concerned with what comes next. So, perhaps I'm writing to prepare my friends. I'm also hoping to save what's left of the conservative party I used to love. As I've said before to my friends, I'm playing the long game -- I would love to see conservatives back in power, but we've got to remove this cancer that has infected us, and I'm hoping to help bring some of this to light.
I see this (sincerely) as the first step for preparing for 2024 -- if conservatives want to have any hope of regaining power, the Trump just has to go. He lost, and as I'm about to show, the widespread fraud that he claims just doesn't exist ... at least not to any degree that could overturn the results.
In 2000, Bush beat Gore in the state of Florida by less than a 1000 votes. That was CRAZY! This time 20 years ago, I really had no idea who are next president was going to be -- it was that close. Gore really could have won.
Bush won the original count in Florida, and he won the automatic recount (though his lead narrowed some). And here I lose count, but he won all subsequent full and partial recounts until the Supreme Court finally put it to rest just in time for the electoral college to vote in December.
Did Gore have the right to do what he did? Heck yeah. The first recount was automatic. And he had the right to request another recount. I did not agree with his creative counting, but I do not fault Gore one bit -- he fought till the end.
The same happened also in 2004 and 2016, but to a much lesser degree. Both Kerry and Hilary asked for recounts in battleground states -- there was at least hope for them for a turnaround in the vote. And there was nothing wrong with that.
Technically, there's nothing wrong with Trump in 2020 doing the same thing as Gore, Kerry, and Hilary: asking for recounts and launching lawsuits, but -- oh my -- the degree that he's chosen to carry this makes 2000 look like nothing. But the funny thing is ... Gore ACTUALLY HAD A CHANCE with less than 1000 votes separating him from the presidency. Can Trump really hope to achieve what Gore couldn't? The mathematician in me knows it's not going to happen, as there are hundreds of thousands of votes standing in his way. And get this ... Biden's leads in most of these battleground are actually LARGER than what Trump won in those same states in 2016.
And so far Trump is keeping everything "legal," but he's now starting to put pressure on conservative legislatures to send alternative electors to the vote next week, which would be very ... interesting. However, I believe that what he is doing now is still damaging the trust in our own democracy. Trump believes (or he says he believes) that he lost the election because of fraud, and many of his base believe him ... so much that they're willing to give him hundreds of millions of dollars AFTER ELECTION DAY, protest, and otherwise try to pressure legislatures.
But where is the fraud? One of my friends argues: "If they're really good at the fraud, you're not going to be able to see it, and that's why we have to stop it." This is all well and good, but in order for judges to do anything, it has to be something ACTIONABLE. That is, something you can point to and say, "See here?" and they look and have no choice but to rule "fraud." But this just isn't happening. (Have patience ... I'm getting there.)
So far, judges are throwing the vast majority of these cases out ... with prejudice even, and not just liberal judges, but even conservative judges ... some of whom Trump, himself, appointed. Conservative secretaries in several states (who voted for Trump and want him to win) are testifying there is no fraud. Even people high up in Trump's cabinet are testifying there is no fraud -- knowing they may very likely lose their jobs.
As for myself, I've found that I can take most claims that Trump and his team come up with, do just a little bit of research, and discover with ease that they're false or unprovable -- it's not really that hard. Information is readily available on the webs -- you just have to be willing to go past the one or two sources most ultra-conservatives hit (which apparently does not include Fox News right now -- so funny!).
This is also the MOST AUDITED election the US has ever had. It almost had to be because Trump kept talking about voting fraud for the entire four years in office. There were measures that he himself helped to be instituted to fight fraud. So, Trump is at a catch-22 here ... either he really lost the election or he really failed to stop fraud.
And the best part ... every state has a freakin paper trail. We saw in Georgia, which uses the Dominion software, that their hand recount came out very close to the first count, and the same with the second recount that just now finished. If Dominion had been flipping votes as Trump insists, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN CAUGHT IN THESE HAND RECOUNTS. I would swear this on my whole career as a mathematician, actuary, modeler, and audit-minded dude. I have to deal with auditors all the time, and believe me ... you can't get anything past those guys.
But where to even begin with the debunking of Trump's claims? It would take forever because there is so much -- Trump is very prolific. The best I can do is to hit the claims in classes. Perhaps it would be good for you to start with this recent debunking by the BBC.
One of my favorites is from that article ...
Dead People Voting
Just one year ago, I sincerely believe that dead people were voting, but then I saw the movie "Selma," and then I realized what's really going on. I reexamined the dead people voting claims I've heard throughout the years -- and sure enough ... it's mostly no proof at all, or hearsay, or misunderstandings (except for onesies/twosies here and there).
As the BBC article above indicates, they looked into a list of 10,000 identified dead people who voted, took a random sample and then performed research. Out of 31, they found 28 were still alive, 1 was a real case of a dead person trying to vote ... but the vote had already been tossed out, and 2 cases of people who had died within weeks of the election (alive when they sent the ballots). You can get even more information on this research here.
The situations uncovered (from that article and others like it):
Some of the alive people on the list had names coinciding with people of the same name in the same state (and sometimes even the same birthday) who had died. (When you have millions of people in a state, the chances of this happening are actually quite high -- which I may explain one day.)
People who were able to confirm that they were truly alive.
Cases of Jr / Sr confusion.
Cases of a wife signing her name as her husband (Mrs. John Doe), like they used to do in the olden days.
More People Voting Than Registered
Think about it: if this were really going on, it would be very easy to prove. I've looked at a few of these, and in all cases, the numbers being used were outright wrong, and it was very easy to find the right numbers.
For example, consider this picture retweeted by Trump on Nov. 27:
In case this picture gets deleted, it shows: PA mailed out 1,823,148 ballots. 1,462,302 were returned. However, PA reported 2,589,242 mail ballots tabulated. Where did 1,126,940 votes come from?
Sounds like a slam dunk case of fraud caught with its pants down. But wait just a second. What happens if I were to do something different ... like ... look up the numbers myself?
The U.S. Elections Project does a pretty good compiling statewide voting data. You'll find these may be a little off from earlier reported numbers due to timing issues, but they are pretty close to the supposed 11/24 numbers -- except for one exception. The total number of ballots requested was 3,087,524 (the number I see today). Not 1,823,148.
Some sites conjecture that the person compiling the 1,823,148 number either got the Democrat requested (1,941,131) mixed up with the total requested. Or perhaps the number came from the Primary election and not the General. In either case, it didn't take very long to confirm that 1,823,148 was never right at any time.
When Trump decided to retweet this errant, he could have taken five minutes to do the same kind of research, but instead he chose to propagate this misinformation. Either because he was lazy, or he was simply forwarding what he wanted to hear, and damn the consequences. Hopefully you didn't fall for the same trap.
This is just one example, but I'll leave you with a challenge. Trump's team has uncovered plenty of these types of bad data. Wherever you hear that 120% of the people voted, or any variation of "more than registered," I bet you can find the true numbers and see that the allegations are plain wrong. I've done it a few times, and it really is eye-opening.
Strange Vote Surges
In the picture at the very top of this post, Trump is holding a timeline of the vote counts in Wisconsin, showing how he was winning and then ... BAM ... all these Biden votes come in one big surge ... just enough to put Biden into the lead.
And again, there was this strange one in Michigan (a famous screen shot that Trump retweeted):
The numbers are really small in this graphic, but it shows absolutely no change in the vote counts for Trump, but it shows an increase of 128k votes for Biden. Trump is in the lead in both pictures. What up with that?
For the Michigan surge, we know that it was a human error -- a typo from one county that was corrected. In fact, Matt Mackowiak deleted his initial tweet the very next day, because he knew it was a non-event. In a review, the error was found and corrected -- it was only a matter of time before it would be discovered.
The surge in Wisconsin is more of a case of "so what?" Votes aren't all counted simultaneously. If you look at the entire graph, you'll see surges for both candidates throughout the whole night. Most likely, a big (blue) county reported its large number of results all at the same time, giving a large boost to Biden. Timing of reports just isn't any kind of evidence of fraud.
Though, didn't anyone else find it strange that Trump tried to claim victory in several battleground states in his late night speech on Election Night -- even before there were still many votes left to tabulate? And at the same time, wasn't it funny that Trump tried to stop the votes where he was in the lead, but not in states where he had fallen behind? (If you look at Trump's words more closely, you'll see a lot of these types of contradictions -- it's very strange how many people seem to be missing this.)
Shenanigans at Voting Precincts
There are a lot of unsubstantiated reports of strange happenings at precincts. Reports of shredding, pulling ballots from under tables, trucks delivering many votes for Biden and other Democrats, running selected ballots through the machines multiple times, using sharpies to sabotage the ballots, and so on. I'm not going to try to attack specific cases, but in general:
Voting precincts will tell you exactly what they were shredding (blank envelopes, faxes, duplicate documents, etc.) and report that they can produce all the ballots as needed because they've kept them all -- and yes -- all the mail-in ballots have creases (in some states).
There were indeed trucks delivering certain items such as food, equipment, etc., but there is absolutely no evidence that generated ballots (that is, not filled out by real people) were in any of these trucks. The lack of evidence means nothing for judges to act on. In many cases, the precincts will tell you what was in those trucks. For a fraud claim to be any good, evidence has to be ACTIONABLE.
Some districts were indeed running ballots through multiple times any time a batch was thrown out due to an error (thus requiring a rerunning of all the ballots in the batch once the error was fixed).
Any ballots that can't be read by computers must be handled by hand. This is standard practice in ALL states. It's silly to think a sharpie could sabotage a ballot, because a human being could clearly see what was marked.
I will hit the "ballots from under tables" thing separately here, because it's by far the most annoying. We have a video from Georgia that shows a "mysterious" table that is pretty much left alone all day, and then people are told to go home around 10:30, and as soon as they leave, election workers pull out these four bins of ballots and resume counting. How do we know this happened? Because the narrator of the video told us.
But when you talk to people who were actually in the room, they tell a different story. I won't go into it here, because I'm sure you've already looked it up. But I don't think it really matters, because, we, on the outside, don't know exactly what was in those bins. Yet there exists a perfectly plausible scenario ... (I figure if others can conjecture, so can I, and it took me less than a minute to think this one up) ... those were early vote or absentee vote ballots.
According to Georgia law votes can't officially start to be counted until 7PM on election date. However, the earlier ballots can be preprocessed -- verified and scanned -- anything but counted.
So, you have all the Election Day ballots. The first thing you're going to do is verify and scan those puppies, and then start the counting process at 7PM. At some time during the night, you're going to pull out all those earlier ballots that have already been preprocessed and start counting those -- but you don't have to do so much with them because they're already preprocessed.
Yeah ... maybe it's my wishful thinking -- I don't know what was in those bins, and you don't know, either. We can only speculate (or ask the election workers).
Again, there is no ACTIONABLE evidence that those ballots were pre-generated Biden votes. No evidence, no case, and absolutely no convictions on PURE SPECULATION in our justice system.
Dominion Vote Flipping Again, there is no evidence that this is happening. In fact, as I've said above, if there were vote flipping, it would have been caught by the hand recount in Georgia ... BOTH TIMES. And it wasn't.
I realize there's that stupid tweet going around today about running an equal number of Trump and Biden votes through a "sequestered Dominion" machine, which showed a 26% lead for Biden. 37 votes were flipped. The argument continues that if that same flipping rate flowed throughout the whole country, then Trump really did beat Biden in the popular vote!
First off, it's a very strange coincidence that 37 additional votes were indeed awarded to Trump in Ware County after an audit revealed an error. That's 37 votes for the entire county ... not from some random small test. I'm thinking someone got their signals crossed.
And who exactly performed this test? And where exactly is this sequestered machine? Evidently Debbie Browning of the Tift County knows, but then it turns out that she doesn't know, but her friend knows. See where I'm going with this?
So again ... no ACTIONABLE evidence. And certainly one could recreate the experiment just for kicks ... that's how science works. But there's no reason to do so when the alleged "bad" test can't even be proven to have taken place.
As many secretaries and even the DOJ have attested, there is absolutely no evidence of vote flipping by computer software.
Republican Leaders Attesting to No Fraud
This is probably one of the biggest puzzles to many conservatives. Why is it that Attorney General Barr, Chris Krebs of election security, several secretaries of state, the governor of Georgia, and several other conservative officials -- who most likely voted for Trump and wanted him to win -- all testified that no substantial fraud existed in this election and that the results are the most accurate results yet produced? Could they all be in the pocket of China?
It may seem like cognitive dissonance, but maybe -- just maybe, there wasn't really any fraud? The fact that all these guys are strong conservatives gives more credence to the idea that there really is something to this idea.
I strongly recommend watching this entire interview of Chris Krebs (13 minutes well spent if you want to get down to the truth), who spent two years beefing up election security throughout the nation, only to be fired by Trump for DOING A GOOD JOB and then be accused of intentionally sabotaging the election.
Republican Hearings
People ask me why I'm not watching these hearings. They think if I watch, I will be impressed with the mountain of evidence and finally be won over. And my answer: it's all a big waste of time. It's one big show with no substance. It reminds me of that Simpsons episode where Homer complains about a pail of bad shrimp, and when Apu throws in another pail, Homer says, "Woohoo!"
I see it as no different than what the Democrats tried to do in the Kavanaugh hearings. All for show, and accomplishing nothing. These are all hearings, and not binding courts of any kind. That's why the mainstream media isn't covering them -- because they're inconsequential.
They're also hilarious ... at least bits and pieces that I've captured. SNL did a good job covering lots of the funny business ... and then I come to learn that most of what they made fun of actually happened! The funny witnesses, the terrible proceedings, and even the MyPillow Guy in the mix.
Most of what happens in these hearings are more of "all the above" that I've covered in classes. None of it is ACTIONABLE. Or it's bad data that's easy to disprove. Or PURE SPECULATION impossible to prove. If anything, I believe these hearings just make Trump and the entire Republican Party look bad, drastically lowering the chances of the two conservative Senator candidates being chosen in the next couple of weeks, giving all power to Biden. And possibly damaging the Republican Party for 2024 chances as well. But we'll see ... sometimes our memories are short.
Alternative Theory
I actually have an alternative theory that fits Occam's Razor pretty nicely.
I think that Trump planned all of this from the beginning. When the coronavirus hit, and things weren't going his way, he knew that his chances of winning in 2020 were dwindling.
He saw early on that Democrats were more likely to be scared of the virus and be more likely to use mail-in ballots. It would take time for these ballots to be delivered in the mail, and some would even come in after Election Day (but postmarked on or before Election Day). He also knew that Election Day votes would be counted first, which would show bias toward Trump, and that more Biden votes would appear the next day and later when states started counting more mail ballots. I explain all of this in this analysis.
So, what did Trump do? He went after mail-in ballots, claiming they were bastions of fraud. He went after drop boxes, knowing it would make it harder for people to get their votes in on time (would you believe one county cellophaned their only drop box and marked it CLOSED?) His appointee instituted several new policies to slow down the mail, including dismantling automated sorting machines ... though most of these were reversed. He went after ballot receipt deadlines.
Trump floating the idea that the Americans deserved to know the winner on Election Night, as if it were a Constitutional right, which is far from the truth. There has never been an election when all votes are finished tabulated that night. (Alaska, anyone?) That's why the Constitution allows for weeks for the votes to be tabulated before the electoral college votes in December.
But sure enough, Trump claimed victory in several battleground states while they were still counting -- where he was far from mathematically clinching the majorities.
And then he did what no other candidate had done in the past. He sued for some states to stop counting, when they hadn't even FINISHED THEIR FIRST COUNT. In 2000, 2004, 2016, each losing candidate at least waited for each state to finish their original count before taking any kind of action.
And as each stage of Trump's plan failed, he moved on to the next stage: suing to stop certifications, trying to get state legislatures to send alternative electors, and I'm not sure what comes next. Maybe after today he's done?
Perhaps he truly thinks that fraud occurred, and he's sincerely trying his hardest to expose it. But my alternative theory makes a lot of sense: Trump simply wants to stop the Biden votes. Attack the mail, the ballots, the timing, ... anything to keep power.
And yes, from where I stand, I see one the biggest onslaughts ever taken by a sitting president on our Constitution -- almost as if trying to pull what Putin successfully pulled off in his country earlier this year. And I can't tell you how elated I am to see that the Constitution is surviving this onslaught, and how I can fully appreciate the wisdom of our Founding Fathers when they created our government. It really gives me hope for the future of this country, for the first time in years.
Yes, it could just be my theory ... but man, does it fit the observations quite nicely!
Closing Thoughts
Whatever happens, we're in this together. I am pretty tough on Trump in this blog post, but I believe it's warranted. It's not directed toward any of my readers. I do not condemn anyone who voted for Trump. I fully understand why you like him. He does have some good traits that liberals have a hard time seeing.
Do you remember the protests four years ago and the whole "Resist" and "He is Not My President" movements? Do you remember how conservatives felt these movements were unconstitutional and disrespectful to the office of the president? Do you remember many saying how un-American it was?
I would likewise love to see all of you resist the temptation to do exactly the same when the electors choose Biden to be our next president next week. I hope you don't stoop to the same level and ignore the system that our Constitution has set up. The last thing I would want to see is a stupid civil war because some can't accept our chosen president as President.
More urgently, I'd like to say this to my conservative Georgia friends (of which there are many): you had better go vote in the special election. I really don't understand this self-destructive movement to boycott the vote because Trump is losing his election. I'll reiterate something I've said at least twice this year: if you don't go vote, I believe you will lose the right to complain about Biden getting full power when both Senate seats go to the Democrats. If you don't want Biden to get this power, then NOW is the time to act. Put it on your calendar: January 5, 2021. There is only one way for you to help keep the Senate red -- go vote! I know you have a beef about the Republican Party not supporting Trump, but the time will come later to take care of that.
Eventually I believe that this will all pass. My wife implies to me that I don't have to write this post, but you know me -- when I have something to say, I don't mind saying it. I'm hoping that going forward we can work together to find someone else better than Trump for 2024 who can do a much better job of reuniting America and truly strengthen our country. I think ultimately, we will figure it out.
How is it that the smartest country in the world with the most resources and innovation has people who still believe the coronavirus is a hoax? More to come after the latest news ...
General Update
Numbers are rising again in the US after a Thanksgiving reporting lag. It may take another week for the numbers to stabilize, but it seems clear that we're on the rise again. Deaths are now happening at their highest rate ever -- even more than in April, our last peak. And there is no sign that it's slowing down.
Cases per capita -- last 7 days:
Worst states: Minnesota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wyoming, Indiana.
Best states: Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, Virginia, Washington
Deaths per capita -- last 7 days:
Worst states: South Dakota, North Dakota, Iowa, New Mexico, Nebraska
Best states: Hawaii, Virginia, Vermont, California, Delaware
Not a Hoax
Now, back to my rant.
There's no nice way to put this, but how dumb can people be? How clueless can they be as to what's happening around the world? How many of their friends have to die before they accept that this is a 1 in 100 year event?
Actually, I can answer that last question. People who are actually experiencing this virus know beyond a shadow of a doubt that this virus is real, it kills, and it delivers a lot of pain and grief. Even the most stubborn of us will change our tune when faced with enough reality. How many times have you heard people who said, "It's a hoax," only to catch the virus and then tell all their friends that it's NOT a hoax?
So, for today, I thought I'd present a few videos to help you glimpse what it looks like at the end. Some of these are sad, but I want you to realize, this could happen to you, or it could happen to your friend or family member.
I'll start with this video from a mom in her final stages before dying talking about what it's like and why we need to avoid the virus.
Or perhaps you'd like to see it from a doctor's perspective. This is the somewhat famous Dr. Joseph Varon in Texas -- a frontline worker.
That was back in July, but here's an update from a couple of days ago ... he's been working nonstop over 250 days straight. His main frustration is that as soon as he helps one batch of people, there's another waiting, many of whom are doing the exact opposite of what the scientists and doctors have been asking us to do.
As he says in both videos: I'm fighting two wars ... one against the virus, and one against stupidity.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/health-55190012
It's one thing to praise our hospitals for saving lives with incredible procedures, but it's another to indicate that it's fine for people to get sick because the hospitals can handle them (flattening the curve). As I hope you learn from these videos, that no ... they're really not handling it. They're getting exhausted, and the worst is yet to come the next few weeks.
And finally one more ... an interview of funeral directors ... an interesting perspective:
At the end of that video, a director says: After this, my job has become easy -- nothing will ever be that difficult again. And this is a similar theme I keep hearing from hospitals and morgues: nothing like this has ever happened in their experience, and they can't wait till it's over to get back to the easy stuff.
And finally ... one last thing to consider. If you've been posting for months about how this virus is a hoax, keep in mind that those posts on Facebook and Twitter are forever. People are going to remember you as the crazy person who believed it was a hoax when there was so much evidence to the contrary. I only tell you this now because you get one more chance ... because after a few weeks from now, it's going to be too late. After the darkest winter anyone will have witnessed in their lifetime here in the US, we're going to remember the people who helped to spread the virus, and I don't think you would want to be remembered that way.
It's not to late to join the majority who are increasingly doing more to work together in fighting the virus. Together we can stop the death, so I invite you to join now ... drop the hoax act and fulfill your patriotic duty, and do your part.
... Or not. You're free to choose your own path, but you don't get to choose the consequences.
Today, I'm going to take it a little easy -- Thanksgiving and all that. I realize we're about to enter a really rough patch over the next two or three months, after which I expect we will all learn a lot more about this pandemic. I'm a little distressed that there still remain some who just don't get it. It's a shrinking minority, but still there, and still helping the virus to spread. We only need enough of us to get R(t) < 1.000 in order to protect more American lives.
So today, I'm going to hit you with a whole bunch of random facts that you either don't already know, or you may need a reminder.
But first, recent happenings ...
General Update
The good news is that new cases are trying to slow down. I'm not sure if it's a testing ceiling or the result of partial lockdowns in several states, but it could be a good development. Even active cases are trying to slow down. Hopefully it's not just a Thanksgiving Day lull in reporting ... we'll find out in a few days.
Cases per capita over the last 7 days:
5 worst states = North Dakota, Wyoming, New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota.
5 best states = Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, South Carolina.
My state: North Carolina is 8th from the best -- so, yay! My county of Forsyth is no longer in the top 20 in the state for cases.
Deaths per capita over the last 7 days:
5 worst states = South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska.
5 best states = Vermont, New Hampshire, Hawaii, California, Maine
The US is in 7th place for total deaths per capita, and it looks like we'll remain there for a while. Belgium is #1 with 0.14% of their entire population dead.
Random Facts
Okay -- so here we go -- random facts for your enlightenment -- in no particular order.
The Pfizer vaccine comes in 2 doses three weeks apart, and it could make you sick for a few days.
It will take months to fully distribute the vaccines, but we could have the virus fully under control by May.
The first three vaccines very close to being finished are use completely different methods to fight the virus -- each ingenious ideas and effective. It won't matter which one we take, and all three (and more) will be welcome.
So far, 36 US congressmen have tested positive for the coronavirus. Out of the Senate, all 8 are Republican. Out of the House, 18 are Republican, and 10 are Democrat.
Trump was praised in April for saving thousands if not millions of lives. At the end of April, we were up to 65,266 deaths. Since then we have had over 205,000 more deaths.
In another two weeks, our average daily death counts will pass our earlier peek in April.
About 20% of those who catch the virus experience adverse effects for months after recovering ... in some cases, people report feeling sicker than when they actually had the virus. This is called "Long Covid" or "Covid Long Hauler."
Sweden actually did institute some restrictions including:
Banning public gatherings with 50 or more people.
Recommending smaller gatherings to use risk assessments and institute mitigation methods.
Encouraging social distancing -- working from home, etc.
Moving secondary schools and colleges to remote learning (but not primary schools).
Also -- earlier this week, Sweden increased their restrictions: no more than 8 allowed in public gatherings.
The United States is the only "rich" country that has yet to get active cases down near zero. Other countries have gotten their cases to low levels before suffering resurgences.
Only four states have deaths per capita lower than the world average: Vermont, Maine, Alaska, Hawaii.
The virus doesn't care about the purpose of any meetings, any righteous convictions, or bravery. It kills indiscriminately.
There is no evidence that any country has reached herd immunity. Though some cities may have obtained this. The 20% threshold theory has been proven to be incorrect.
As of 10/3/2020, the US has had almost 300,000 excess deaths for 2020. Yet, some people still say that US excess deaths are low for the year. This is because they're comparing a 3Q number and projecting linearly to get a low yearly number without realizing that by far deaths tend to be highest during 4Q.
One estimate has that over 30% of the US population have contracted the virus -- much higher than the "official" 4%.
I hope you enjoy these. I'll be back with more next week.
The next couple of months are going to be painful, and sadness is going to hit most of us. I'm now up to two people who I know that have died, and this third wave has just begun. Even with a vaccine coming shortly, we still have to be vigilant to avoid as much death as we can in the coming weeks. If you haven't gotten there yet, you will most likely soon start to wonder, "What do I have to do to end all this?" We'll take a closer look after this update.
General Update
Cases are still rising in the US, but for the first time, it appears that we're starting to slow down a little. I'm not sure if it's because we've reached another testing ceiling, or if we're starting to see the effects of recently installed partial lockdowns in several states. Our death counts have officially met and passed our peak from the second wave, and it'll be another month before they slow down.
Per capita cases over the past week:
The five worst states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Iowa, Nebraska. (Extra points for anyone to find where I grabbed the picture at the top from.)
The five best states are: Hawaii, Maine, Vermont, Virginia, Oregon.
My state of North Carolina is still spiking. And so is my county of Forsyth (still in 12th place in the state). (My family is hunkering down.)
Per capita deaths over the past week:
The five worst states are: South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Wisconsin. (Stay away from that area -- really.)
The five best states are: Hawaii, Vermont, Alaska, New Hampshire, Maine.
In my state of North Carolina, deaths might be trying to go down -- it's kind of random.
The US is now in 8th place for total deaths at around 0.08% of our population. Over this past week, it's been going up and down between 7th and 9th place with the UK and Italy surpassing us and Chile going back under us. There are about 6 countries real close to each other in this range.
What Can You Do?
In any kind of disaster, it's human nature to feel bad about what's going on and to want to do something about it. It happened with 9/11, and it is happening with many of us now, though there remains a large minority still catching up.
So, what exactly can we do now? Are you ready to do your civic duty and help protect the vulnerable? If we work together, we can bring an end to this very quickly. We've seen it in South Korea, China, Japan, and many other countries. It's very possible -- and now we even know how to attack this disease while avoiding a lockdown at the same time, but it would take cooperation from nearly anyone.
How do these other countries do it and come out with much less death per capita than our country is doing right now? To put it simply ... the general public, themselves, are taking it seriously and they are working together. They are instituting correct behaviors that fight the virus, and they are helping each other to learn, remember, and act out what needs to be done. And it really isn't that tough.
STEP 1: Get educated. While we're being bombarded with misinformation, you can still do your own research. How does this virus work? What are its weaknesses? What are its strengths? What spreads it the most? What curbs its spread? I've known the answers for months, and have tried to share this info with you bit by bit. And all the information you need is available -- all waiting patiently for you to learn as well. It's not that hard, and I will summarize the big steps here.
First off, if you haven't already done so, I strongly recommend that you read the two most important newsletters I've written, primers -- if you will:
The Simplicity -- learn what the Goal of epidemiology is. I'll tell you right now -- it's to do whatever it takes to get R(t) < 1.0, or in other words, reduce the number of active cases. If we accomplish this one Goal, then mathematically, the virus kills itself off.
The Anti-Hype -- learn about the nefarious forces that are working to upset our one Goal. If you can come to understand how misinformation works, you can learn to combat it. And there is a very simple test -- if an idea or concept reduces the spread of the virus, then it must be good. However, if an idea or concept actually increases the spread and maximizes death, it is most likely part of this Anti-Hype.
STEP 2: Do the things that help to limit the spread. Here's a quick list.
Wear masks. This is probably the easiest way you can participate in the fight against the virus. It's more effective than most people think. We're at an estimated 70% coverage nationwide. I'll leave it up to you to do your own research on these points (see STEP 1), but I'll still give you links to my blabs for some optional reading.
Social distance as much as you can. This may mean staying at home, working from home, refraining from visiting friends in person, keeping distance, etc. It's all about reducing vectors of spread. You'll never know when you're the one spreading the virus until it's too late. Note that this is a temporary state until we get this much more under control. Keep in mind that Korea, China, Japan, etc., are pretty much open, but playing it safe. We can, too.
Get tested if you think you're sick or exposed. This is the fastest way to identify where the virus is, and to identify who needs to be quarantined. There is no way faster to choke the virus than to effectively identify and quarantine the sick and exposed. This is even much more effective than lockdowns.
Cooperate with contact tracing efforts. If you get a phone call, talk to the people and help them to put an end to this virus. It's all about identifying the sick and the exposed so that further death can be avoided. Talking to these people can saves lives.
Download a contact tracing app. Our human contact tracers could use our help. If you live in one of 17+ states participating in the Google/Apple contacting trace program, this app can help you to identify when you are exposed to the virus, and considerably speed up contact tracing -- and these apps protect your privacy as well. You could probably try to get your own state to participate if they aren't already.
Educate others. Information is power. If you can get others to adopt these behaviors, then the virus would have no chance.
STEP 3: Avoid doing actions that work to spread the virus. Here's a quick list of what NOT to do.
Go to crowded indoor places, with or without masks. Especially now, the chances of you catching and or spreading the virus are very high, even with masks on. You may have fun at your reunion, but then hate yourself later when two or more attendees die a month later. And an indoor rally is about the most dangerous event you can attend.
Go to crowded outdoor places without masks. Outside air is very good at dispersing aerosols, but one can still be infected by the larger droplets in close quarters. Don't believe those that say that outdoor protests and rallies are safe. Even with masks on, you will want to keep at least 6 feet away from people outside. Most of the bigger profile crowded indoor and outdoor events over the past months have proven to increase case volume in the cities they are held.
Ignore the virus. Some people see efforts to stop the virus as infringements on their freedoms, so they'll try to go about their lives as if there is no virus. We shouldn't be forcing people to comply, but if you truly want to limit the spread, this is the last thing you'll want to do.
Mock those who are working to stop the virus. Just don't do it. You wouldn't want to inadvertently inspire someone to stop fighting the virus.
Count solely on the vaccine. This will not be available to most of us for months. We will still need to be vigilant. As the vaccine starts to take hold, we will be able to relax our efforts and move back to normal ... however that time has not yet come.
Propagate misinformation. You may not be directly contributing to the spread, but we humans are a social bunch. We learn by example. If you post something on social media that says the virus is a hoax, someone is going to read it and believe you, and they're going to go out and get someone sick. Before you share that article, idea, argument, or whatever, first ask yourself the Anti-Hype test question: does this help to stop the spread? Or does it increase the spread? If the latter, then don't post it, as you will fall into the nefarious trap and contribute to the problem. Not posting it is about the best thing you can do to stop it from propagating.
When this is all over -- and it will end, and we will one day return to normal -- we will all be able to look back and see what happened. We will have 20/20 hindsight (sorry for the pun). And we will have a full knowledge of how we fared -- we will know if we helped or hindered. Decide now where you'd like to be remembered, and act now. Time is short, and the next couple of months will be very difficult and sad. It's not too late to minimize death and end this virus together.
Really good news coming out this past week. A new vaccine almost ready to be distributed, and more coming shortly. A possible nose spray to help protect us from daily exposure. A new antibody treatment that looks promising.
However, we still need to be vigilant ... I'll explain more after the break.
General Update
The numbers are still going up like crazy. The only good news is that deaths could be a lot higher, but give it another couple of weeks. Cases are through the roof, and that's bad -- deaths are lagging cases by about a month in Europe and other places, and now it's our turn.
Cases per capita over the past week:
The worst five states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Wyoming, Wisconsin.
The best five states are: Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, and California.
My state of North Carolina is at its highest case count right now, but other states are much worse. My county of Forsyth ranks 12th right now in the state in recent cases per capita, and is at its highest rate right now.
Deaths per capita over the past week:
The worst five states are: North Dakota (whoa nellie -- stay away from there), South Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, Kansas.
The best five states are: Vermont, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Maine, California.
Deaths in North Carolina are at their highest, and so are the deaths in Forsyth -- but still relatively low compared to the rest of the United States.
Overall, the US has moved up to 7th place as of yesterday, but it looks like the UK is going to fly by us and push us back to 8th any day now. We've been going back and forth between 7th and 8th place for a month now.
Vaccine Update
And now back to the vaccine. Good news ... right? 90% effectiveness?
This vaccine comes from BioNTech (Germany) and Pfizer (USA). They say they can provide 30-40 million doses of the virus in the next couple of months, and possibly up to 1.3 billion doses over a year's time. But note that this vaccine comes in two doses. You get one shot, and then another one three weeks later. So, these doses would only help 15-20 million people in the next couple of months, and 650 million people by the end of next year.
You may notice that's noticeably lower than 7 billion people in the world ... but remember, we only need to get R(t) < 1.0. If we choke the virus, it will go away on its own. Can Pfizer and BioNTech make these doses fast enough to save lives?
The bad news is that it doesn't help those who have already caught the virus. All those who are currently infected are still in trouble. (Though the new antibody treatment might be able to help -- as long as hospitalization figures can be kept down.) I am somewhat saddened to think about the slew of deaths about to play out over the next month -- nothing can stop that now. It's really depressing me.
We're also not sure yet how effective this vaccine will be on older people. Younger folks in these studies have the advantage of healthier immune systems and more T-Cells, etc. It's very possible that older folks will have less of a response to this vaccine -- but hopefully it will be enough.
Also, the pool supporting the 90% figure is actually pretty small. It does have a lot of credibility because of the size of the trials, but there are most likely several factors that have yet to be considered. In practice, we could very well see lower efficacy.
Since the studies aren't completely finished, this and other vaccines coming up can only be distributed on an emergency basis -- as decided by the FDA. This means that anyone receiving the vaccine will have to be monitored, such that if any ill effects pop up, the vaccine can be halted as soon as possible. But at least so far, this vaccine seems to be free of major side effects -- which is usually determined early on in the trials.
This vaccine also needs to be kept at very cold temperatures, which could be a challenge to distribute.
Someone like me -- early 50s with only minor issues, is likely NOT to be eligible for the vaccine for another couple of months. So, dang. Older people will get it first, and other vulnerable folks -- the ones most likely to die if they catch the virus.
Trump is taking credit for the success of this vaccine, but does he deserve it. He's right in the area of this being a major undertaking in such a short amount of time. He's also right about other similar vaccines coming out that will most likely be very effective as well. More than one vaccine is more than welcome.
However, there is much debate over how much Trump actually helped. BioNTech and Pfizer have yet to receive any money at all from Operation Warp Speed. They do have an agreement, though, and can stand to earn as much as $2 billion from the government as they distribute the vaccine. One could argue that this was sufficient financial incentive to get their act together and produce the vaccine sooner.
Also, had this played out differently and if we had nipped this thing in the bud in February/March (like South Korea did), then we wouldn't be needing these vaccines. We didn't see any Ebola vaccines to come out of our 2014 outbreak in the US -- because we eradicated it before it could spread (what a concept!). Though -- I just learned that Ebola vaccines have been produced in the past year ... hooray!
Can we trust the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine? The data seems to show that it's safe, and it may even be effective. I would not be afraid to take this vaccine.
However, don't forget these items of bad news:
We don't know how long this new Covid19 vaccine will be effective -- the antibodies could very well wear off anywhere from 6-12 months (or hopefully more) and allow us to be infected later on.
We're not sure yet how effective this will be on any upcoming mutations -- though if we make one version of the vaccine, it can be tweaked as needed.
We're not sure if the new mink mutation in Denmark will mess up the vaccine. Some experts think that specific mutation can render all vaccines useless. We could kill off one strain and allow this strain to take its place.
Remember that the distribution of the vaccine will be slow at first. (And several people that you know are likely to die anyway in the next month -- and so close to having been able to receive the vaccine!)
Relaxing now will only speed up the spread of the virus, leading to more deaths before the distribution of the vaccine can commence.
So, it's imperative to remember to behave in certain ways to get R(t) < 1.0. We need active cases to go down -- always -- no matter what develops. We can't wait to rely solely on the vaccine. We will need to employ several tactics in our arsenal against the virus. Maybe we'll quickly get that daily nose spray that we can use until we can get vaccinated. We can always wear masks -- it's still a very cheap and effective way to get R(t) down. We can continue washing our hands, and social distance as much as possible. And we can always cooperate with contact tracers, and if we get sick, make sure to alert all our friends to let them know they may be infected.
This is far from over, and we should not lose sight of the final goal. R(t) < 1.0. But soon, this and other vaccines will be able to help us in the fight.
Many seem to be sincerely surprised that Biden is slowly emerging victorious. Some even think it's some kind of fraud. And this is where I'm surprised, because what's happening now is exactly what I've seen in all of the recent elections back to 2000. There have always been states that take longer to count votes than other states. And this time -- we knew this going into the election -- it's exacerbated by many more mail-in ballots due to the coronavirus pandemic. It just takes more time to count all those mail-in ballots -- mainly because it takes more time to vet them, checking signatures, whether the person has already voted, and all other measures in place to make sure fraud and mistakes aren't happening.
Imagine this ... you're running the vote count for your state, and you've just finished election day. You got all your in-person votes. You're counting your early votes and checking the provisionals (ballots with issues). And you've got this desk with a gigantic pile of main-in votes. (Well -- maybe several desks.) How long should you wait before cutting off counting votes from that pile?
Or how about this? You're in line to vote where things shut down at 7PM. The line is moving very slowly, and it's 6:59PM. At 7PM, should the election officer cut off the line and send everyone home? Or should they let the remaining people vote?
There really is no difference between the two scenarios. If you're in line by 7PM, you're going to get your chance to vote, even if it takes three hours. And those votes are going to be counted.
And that tall stack of mail-in votes? There is absolutely nothing in the Constitution, nor in any state law that says that counting those votes has to finish by midnight Election Day. That's something crazy people have made up. The first deadline is December 14, when the designated electors are supposed to vote.
On Election night, Trump made the unprecedented move to claim victory in at least five states where he was in the lead, but where the states were nowhere near done counting the votes, and where no reputable forecaster had called them -- nothing I'd ever seen before in my life. Even in 2000 with Bush v. Gore, no action was taken until Florida had finished their first count.
But okay ... I need to keep this short and get back to the OP question. Trump was in the lead early on and was set for a landslide, but then the votes started flipping toward Biden. How is this possible?
It's really quite simple if you consider the following:
The coronavirus epidemic inspired several states to create and/or expand their absentee ballot process. My state of NC expanded its deadline for ballots to arrive in the mail (provided the envelopes are postmarked by Election Day). The idea was to make it easier for people to avoid having to show up in person to vote and spread the virus.
Republicans were more likely to show up in person on Election Day to vote. I usually do this, but not this year (I did absentee ballot and hand-delivered it.)
Democrats were more likely to use mail ballots, as Democrats tend to err on the side of caution, and Republicans tend to err on the side of not fearing the virus.
Big cities tend to be predominantly Democrat. Thus, a LOT of mail-in ballots come from big cities, and they lean heavily Democrat. (And LOTS of mail-in ballots take longer to count.)
Do you see it yet? For most states who are slow in counting, the in-person votes and perhaps early votes were counted first, which leaned heavily Republican. And that gigantic stack of mail-in votes that sat on all those desks? They take longer to vet and count, and they lean heavily Democrat. So, of course it was always going to look like a gigantic Trump lead followed by a "miraculous" Biden comeback.
But don't you fret. If you're worried about fraud or Trump losing, please consider the following:
In Arizona, Maricopa County still has a ton of outstanding mail-in ballots, and the city of Phoenix is known for its Republican population. We could see Biden's lead shrink, and Trump can still win the state. (Funny, peeps aren't asking for the vote counting to stop there.)
In Georgia, they still have to count outstanding military ballots, which will most likely lean Trump -- which would eat at Biden's lead, and possibly flip the state back to red.
In North Carolina, I don't think there are enough outstanding ballots for Biden to get in the lead.
Also remember that all these ballots should be well documented. After the fact, there will be ample time to recount, re-vet, and help us feel better about the whole process. Bad ballots will be thrown out (as they always are), and any fraud will be revealed.
