Yeah ... you read that right. I'm done. I've been writing these newsletters for months now -- first on my Facebook page, and then over here on this blog. It's been fun, but ... let's face it ... it's pretty much too late to do anything anymore. Just hunker down and wait for what's coming over the next couple of grim months. Plus, I need a break, and starting the first week in January, I'm going to launch a whole new and exciting initiative.
I'll continue doing my weekly model updates on my Facebook page (which last run showed us hitting 400k total deaths by around January 20-ish). And I'll continue updating my deaths per million graphs once a month going forward (on Facebook). And every now and then when I feel like it, I'll come back and give a few more "Coronavirus Updates."
So, one more general update, and then some closing thoughts.
General Update
It's bad out there ... just bad. Practically all states are red on the hotspot map, except for Maine, Vermont, and Hawaii.
Hospitals continue to fill up. You can check statuses on that here.
Cases per Capita -- last 7 days:
Worst States: Rhode Island, Indiana, Alaska (wha?), Idaho, Kansas
Best States: Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, Oregon, Washington
North Carolina: Cases have skyrocket this last week. Forsyth County is increasing, but not in the top 20 counties.
Deaths per Capita -- last 7 days:
Worst States: South Dakota, North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Rhode Island
Best States: Hawaii, Washington, Maine, Virginia, Vermont
The Pfizer vaccine is about to start rolling out, as it is now approved by the FDA for emergency use. Though, we're not entirely sure if it was under duress with President Trump's threats to fire the head of the FDA.
Most of my readers will not be eligible for the first round, and we'll run out of doses. But don't worry -- other vaccines are likely to be approved shortly.
Emergency use means that the government will continue to monitor the vaccine and halt it if it turns out to have too many adverse effects or turns us into zombies. Two possibly identified side effects may be intense allergic reactions for those who use epipens (but no reports of anaphylactic shock), and possibly Bell's Palsy (it may have been a coincidence, but it was statistically significant). If you want to learn more about these, check out this Reuters fact check.
Hopefully this and other vaccines will help get R(t) < 1.0 and kill off the virus.
Farewell
Okay -- time for final words.
The good news is that every day, more and more people get on board. A majority of the people are sincerely working hard to fight the virus. They wear their masks, practice social distancing, and do whatever else they understand to help out and do their part. We are now estimated to be at around 73% mask coverage -- higher from 70% a couple of weeks ago.
The bad news is that the other 20%-30% are still fighting this. They fear that their rights are being taken away. Or they believe that since they're under 55 years old, they have no need to be careful, and let the vulnerable people fend for themselves (it's their fault if they catch the virus).
Unfortunately, this minority is responsible for the vast majority (85%+) of the spread of the virus in our nation -- whether it be through spreading misinformation or the virus itself through sick or asymptomatic spread.
Sadly 27% of us not wearing masks still provides the virus plenty of fuel for spreading and maximizing death.
If you haven't already, I highly recommend reading the following three newsletters, which I consider to be by far the most important posts I've written concerning the fight against the virus.
What Can You Do To Stop the Spread? -- Learn the simple steps that *you* can do to help join the fight against the virus and save lives. You can also see a list of actions to avoid.
The Simplicity -- What is the main goal of fighting the virus? R(t) < 1.000. But what does that mean? Click here to learn more about what we've learned from several outbreaks in the past.
The Loudness -- Learn about the nefarious forces that are intentionally trying to use the pandemic to weaken our country. Once you learn to recognize the signs, you will instantly realize how *you* can help to fight the virus effectively.
By far, President Trump, Dr. Scott Atlas (a radiologist?), and a couple of rogue epidemiologists, are the most responsible for the spread of the virus in our nation. They have done so through their teachings, rhetoric, and actions. If you read those three articles and strive to understand them, then you, too, should be able to see this as well. Use these people as an example of what NOT to do.
I think it really will get better when Biden takes office in January. Then we will have much more consistent messaging coming from the top, and hopefully there will be a lot less confusion and nonsense coming from the minority.
We shall see. It's not too late to join the fight against the virus. Join the majority who are already doing it. Working together, we can stop this virus.
Well ... you all can stop this virus. I've already done more than my fair share to fight the most disruptive virus in my lifetime, and my conscious is fully clear. Eventually I'll be back after the dose of reality we're all going to get in the next few weeks. But for now, I'm going to enjoy Christmas. I'm going to relax. And hopefully this annoying cough that I've just now developed is going to go away.
I wish you all well, and I'll see y'all on the other side.
What do 2000, 2004, and 2016 have in common? They were all closer than the 2020 election. And still one month later, Trump is still trying to overturn the results? Why? What are his ultimate goals?
Before I continue ... a quick word to my conservative friends, of which there are many who sincerely just want to see Trump serve four more years. And I get it ... I hate it when my candidate loses. I really wanted Romney to win in 2012, but got four more years of Obama instead.
My friends are great ... and they give me a lot of leeway. But I am very concerned -- not only for our country, but also for my conservative friends, who I believe to be deceived by a charlatan. I've been trying since early 2016 trying to convince them that Trump is not the best pick for a conservative candidate, of which my friends are fully aware.
I am in no way concerned about Trump actually winning, but I am very concerned with what comes next. So, perhaps I'm writing to prepare my friends. I'm also hoping to save what's left of the conservative party I used to love. As I've said before to my friends, I'm playing the long game -- I would love to see conservatives back in power, but we've got to remove this cancer that has infected us, and I'm hoping to help bring some of this to light.
I see this (sincerely) as the first step for preparing for 2024 -- if conservatives want to have any hope of regaining power, the Trump just has to go. He lost, and as I'm about to show, the widespread fraud that he claims just doesn't exist ... at least not to any degree that could overturn the results.
In 2000, Bush beat Gore in the state of Florida by less than a 1000 votes. That was CRAZY! This time 20 years ago, I really had no idea who are next president was going to be -- it was that close. Gore really could have won.
Bush won the original count in Florida, and he won the automatic recount (though his lead narrowed some). And here I lose count, but he won all subsequent full and partial recounts until the Supreme Court finally put it to rest just in time for the electoral college to vote in December.
Did Gore have the right to do what he did? Heck yeah. The first recount was automatic. And he had the right to request another recount. I did not agree with his creative counting, but I do not fault Gore one bit -- he fought till the end.
The same happened also in 2004 and 2016, but to a much lesser degree. Both Kerry and Hilary asked for recounts in battleground states -- there was at least hope for them for a turnaround in the vote. And there was nothing wrong with that.
Technically, there's nothing wrong with Trump in 2020 doing the same thing as Gore, Kerry, and Hilary: asking for recounts and launching lawsuits, but -- oh my -- the degree that he's chosen to carry this makes 2000 look like nothing. But the funny thing is ... Gore ACTUALLY HAD A CHANCE with less than 1000 votes separating him from the presidency. Can Trump really hope to achieve what Gore couldn't? The mathematician in me knows it's not going to happen, as there are hundreds of thousands of votes standing in his way. And get this ... Biden's leads in most of these battleground are actually LARGER than what Trump won in those same states in 2016.
And so far Trump is keeping everything "legal," but he's now starting to put pressure on conservative legislatures to send alternative electors to the vote next week, which would be very ... interesting. However, I believe that what he is doing now is still damaging the trust in our own democracy. Trump believes (or he says he believes) that he lost the election because of fraud, and many of his base believe him ... so much that they're willing to give him hundreds of millions of dollars AFTER ELECTION DAY, protest, and otherwise try to pressure legislatures.
But where is the fraud? One of my friends argues: "If they're really good at the fraud, you're not going to be able to see it, and that's why we have to stop it." This is all well and good, but in order for judges to do anything, it has to be something ACTIONABLE. That is, something you can point to and say, "See here?" and they look and have no choice but to rule "fraud." But this just isn't happening. (Have patience ... I'm getting there.)
So far, judges are throwing the vast majority of these cases out ... with prejudice even, and not just liberal judges, but even conservative judges ... some of whom Trump, himself, appointed. Conservative secretaries in several states (who voted for Trump and want him to win) are testifying there is no fraud. Even people high up in Trump's cabinet are testifying there is no fraud -- knowing they may very likely lose their jobs.
As for myself, I've found that I can take most claims that Trump and his team come up with, do just a little bit of research, and discover with ease that they're false or unprovable -- it's not really that hard. Information is readily available on the webs -- you just have to be willing to go past the one or two sources most ultra-conservatives hit (which apparently does not include Fox News right now -- so funny!).
This is also the MOST AUDITED election the US has ever had. It almost had to be because Trump kept talking about voting fraud for the entire four years in office. There were measures that he himself helped to be instituted to fight fraud. So, Trump is at a catch-22 here ... either he really lost the election or he really failed to stop fraud.
And the best part ... every state has a freakin paper trail. We saw in Georgia, which uses the Dominion software, that their hand recount came out very close to the first count, and the same with the second recount that just now finished. If Dominion had been flipping votes as Trump insists, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN CAUGHT IN THESE HAND RECOUNTS. I would swear this on my whole career as a mathematician, actuary, modeler, and audit-minded dude. I have to deal with auditors all the time, and believe me ... you can't get anything past those guys.
But where to even begin with the debunking of Trump's claims? It would take forever because there is so much -- Trump is very prolific. The best I can do is to hit the claims in classes. Perhaps it would be good for you to start with this recent debunking by the BBC.
One of my favorites is from that article ...
Dead People Voting
Just one year ago, I sincerely believe that dead people were voting, but then I saw the movie "Selma," and then I realized what's really going on. I reexamined the dead people voting claims I've heard throughout the years -- and sure enough ... it's mostly no proof at all, or hearsay, or misunderstandings (except for onesies/twosies here and there).
As the BBC article above indicates, they looked into a list of 10,000 identified dead people who voted, took a random sample and then performed research. Out of 31, they found 28 were still alive, 1 was a real case of a dead person trying to vote ... but the vote had already been tossed out, and 2 cases of people who had died within weeks of the election (alive when they sent the ballots). You can get even more information on this research here.
The situations uncovered (from that article and others like it):
Some of the alive people on the list had names coinciding with people of the same name in the same state (and sometimes even the same birthday) who had died. (When you have millions of people in a state, the chances of this happening are actually quite high -- which I may explain one day.)
People who were able to confirm that they were truly alive.
Cases of Jr / Sr confusion.
Cases of a wife signing her name as her husband (Mrs. John Doe), like they used to do in the olden days.
More People Voting Than Registered
Think about it: if this were really going on, it would be very easy to prove. I've looked at a few of these, and in all cases, the numbers being used were outright wrong, and it was very easy to find the right numbers.
For example, consider this picture retweeted by Trump on Nov. 27:
In case this picture gets deleted, it shows: PA mailed out 1,823,148 ballots. 1,462,302 were returned. However, PA reported 2,589,242 mail ballots tabulated. Where did 1,126,940 votes come from?
Sounds like a slam dunk case of fraud caught with its pants down. But wait just a second. What happens if I were to do something different ... like ... look up the numbers myself?
The U.S. Elections Project does a pretty good compiling statewide voting data. You'll find these may be a little off from earlier reported numbers due to timing issues, but they are pretty close to the supposed 11/24 numbers -- except for one exception. The total number of ballots requested was 3,087,524 (the number I see today). Not 1,823,148.
Some sites conjecture that the person compiling the 1,823,148 number either got the Democrat requested (1,941,131) mixed up with the total requested. Or perhaps the number came from the Primary election and not the General. In either case, it didn't take very long to confirm that 1,823,148 was never right at any time.
When Trump decided to retweet this errant, he could have taken five minutes to do the same kind of research, but instead he chose to propagate this misinformation. Either because he was lazy, or he was simply forwarding what he wanted to hear, and damn the consequences. Hopefully you didn't fall for the same trap.
This is just one example, but I'll leave you with a challenge. Trump's team has uncovered plenty of these types of bad data. Wherever you hear that 120% of the people voted, or any variation of "more than registered," I bet you can find the true numbers and see that the allegations are plain wrong. I've done it a few times, and it really is eye-opening.
Strange Vote Surges
In the picture at the very top of this post, Trump is holding a timeline of the vote counts in Wisconsin, showing how he was winning and then ... BAM ... all these Biden votes come in one big surge ... just enough to put Biden into the lead.
And again, there was this strange one in Michigan (a famous screen shot that Trump retweeted):
The numbers are really small in this graphic, but it shows absolutely no change in the vote counts for Trump, but it shows an increase of 128k votes for Biden. Trump is in the lead in both pictures. What up with that?
For the Michigan surge, we know that it was a human error -- a typo from one county that was corrected. In fact, Matt Mackowiak deleted his initial tweet the very next day, because he knew it was a non-event. In a review, the error was found and corrected -- it was only a matter of time before it would be discovered.
The surge in Wisconsin is more of a case of "so what?" Votes aren't all counted simultaneously. If you look at the entire graph, you'll see surges for both candidates throughout the whole night. Most likely, a big (blue) county reported its large number of results all at the same time, giving a large boost to Biden. Timing of reports just isn't any kind of evidence of fraud.
Though, didn't anyone else find it strange that Trump tried to claim victory in several battleground states in his late night speech on Election Night -- even before there were still many votes left to tabulate? And at the same time, wasn't it funny that Trump tried to stop the votes where he was in the lead, but not in states where he had fallen behind? (If you look at Trump's words more closely, you'll see a lot of these types of contradictions -- it's very strange how many people seem to be missing this.)
Shenanigans at Voting Precincts
There are a lot of unsubstantiated reports of strange happenings at precincts. Reports of shredding, pulling ballots from under tables, trucks delivering many votes for Biden and other Democrats, running selected ballots through the machines multiple times, using sharpies to sabotage the ballots, and so on. I'm not going to try to attack specific cases, but in general:
Voting precincts will tell you exactly what they were shredding (blank envelopes, faxes, duplicate documents, etc.) and report that they can produce all the ballots as needed because they've kept them all -- and yes -- all the mail-in ballots have creases (in some states).
There were indeed trucks delivering certain items such as food, equipment, etc., but there is absolutely no evidence that generated ballots (that is, not filled out by real people) were in any of these trucks. The lack of evidence means nothing for judges to act on. In many cases, the precincts will tell you what was in those trucks. For a fraud claim to be any good, evidence has to be ACTIONABLE.
Some districts were indeed running ballots through multiple times any time a batch was thrown out due to an error (thus requiring a rerunning of all the ballots in the batch once the error was fixed).
Any ballots that can't be read by computers must be handled by hand. This is standard practice in ALL states. It's silly to think a sharpie could sabotage a ballot, because a human being could clearly see what was marked.
I will hit the "ballots from under tables" thing separately here, because it's by far the most annoying. We have a video from Georgia that shows a "mysterious" table that is pretty much left alone all day, and then people are told to go home around 10:30, and as soon as they leave, election workers pull out these four bins of ballots and resume counting. How do we know this happened? Because the narrator of the video told us.
But when you talk to people who were actually in the room, they tell a different story. I won't go into it here, because I'm sure you've already looked it up. But I don't think it really matters, because, we, on the outside, don't know exactly what was in those bins. Yet there exists a perfectly plausible scenario ... (I figure if others can conjecture, so can I, and it took me less than a minute to think this one up) ... those were early vote or absentee vote ballots.
According to Georgia law votes can't officially start to be counted until 7PM on election date. However, the earlier ballots can be preprocessed -- verified and scanned -- anything but counted.
So, you have all the Election Day ballots. The first thing you're going to do is verify and scan those puppies, and then start the counting process at 7PM. At some time during the night, you're going to pull out all those earlier ballots that have already been preprocessed and start counting those -- but you don't have to do so much with them because they're already preprocessed.
Yeah ... maybe it's my wishful thinking -- I don't know what was in those bins, and you don't know, either. We can only speculate (or ask the election workers).
Again, there is no ACTIONABLE evidence that those ballots were pre-generated Biden votes. No evidence, no case, and absolutely no convictions on PURE SPECULATION in our justice system.
Dominion Vote Flipping Again, there is no evidence that this is happening. In fact, as I've said above, if there were vote flipping, it would have been caught by the hand recount in Georgia ... BOTH TIMES. And it wasn't.
I realize there's that stupid tweet going around today about running an equal number of Trump and Biden votes through a "sequestered Dominion" machine, which showed a 26% lead for Biden. 37 votes were flipped. The argument continues that if that same flipping rate flowed throughout the whole country, then Trump really did beat Biden in the popular vote!
First off, it's a very strange coincidence that 37 additional votes were indeed awarded to Trump in Ware County after an audit revealed an error. That's 37 votes for the entire county ... not from some random small test. I'm thinking someone got their signals crossed.
And who exactly performed this test? And where exactly is this sequestered machine? Evidently Debbie Browning of the Tift County knows, but then it turns out that she doesn't know, but her friend knows. See where I'm going with this?
So again ... no ACTIONABLE evidence. And certainly one could recreate the experiment just for kicks ... that's how science works. But there's no reason to do so when the alleged "bad" test can't even be proven to have taken place.
As many secretaries and even the DOJ have attested, there is absolutely no evidence of vote flipping by computer software.
Republican Leaders Attesting to No Fraud
This is probably one of the biggest puzzles to many conservatives. Why is it that Attorney General Barr, Chris Krebs of election security, several secretaries of state, the governor of Georgia, and several other conservative officials -- who most likely voted for Trump and wanted him to win -- all testified that no substantial fraud existed in this election and that the results are the most accurate results yet produced? Could they all be in the pocket of China?
It may seem like cognitive dissonance, but maybe -- just maybe, there wasn't really any fraud? The fact that all these guys are strong conservatives gives more credence to the idea that there really is something to this idea.
I strongly recommend watching this entire interview of Chris Krebs (13 minutes well spent if you want to get down to the truth), who spent two years beefing up election security throughout the nation, only to be fired by Trump for DOING A GOOD JOB and then be accused of intentionally sabotaging the election.
Republican Hearings
People ask me why I'm not watching these hearings. They think if I watch, I will be impressed with the mountain of evidence and finally be won over. And my answer: it's all a big waste of time. It's one big show with no substance. It reminds me of that Simpsons episode where Homer complains about a pail of bad shrimp, and when Apu throws in another pail, Homer says, "Woohoo!"
I see it as no different than what the Democrats tried to do in the Kavanaugh hearings. All for show, and accomplishing nothing. These are all hearings, and not binding courts of any kind. That's why the mainstream media isn't covering them -- because they're inconsequential.
They're also hilarious ... at least bits and pieces that I've captured. SNL did a good job covering lots of the funny business ... and then I come to learn that most of what they made fun of actually happened! The funny witnesses, the terrible proceedings, and even the MyPillow Guy in the mix.
Most of what happens in these hearings are more of "all the above" that I've covered in classes. None of it is ACTIONABLE. Or it's bad data that's easy to disprove. Or PURE SPECULATION impossible to prove. If anything, I believe these hearings just make Trump and the entire Republican Party look bad, drastically lowering the chances of the two conservative Senator candidates being chosen in the next couple of weeks, giving all power to Biden. And possibly damaging the Republican Party for 2024 chances as well. But we'll see ... sometimes our memories are short.
Alternative Theory
I actually have an alternative theory that fits Occam's Razor pretty nicely.
I think that Trump planned all of this from the beginning. When the coronavirus hit, and things weren't going his way, he knew that his chances of winning in 2020 were dwindling.
He saw early on that Democrats were more likely to be scared of the virus and be more likely to use mail-in ballots. It would take time for these ballots to be delivered in the mail, and some would even come in after Election Day (but postmarked on or before Election Day). He also knew that Election Day votes would be counted first, which would show bias toward Trump, and that more Biden votes would appear the next day and later when states started counting more mail ballots. I explain all of this in this analysis.
So, what did Trump do? He went after mail-in ballots, claiming they were bastions of fraud. He went after drop boxes, knowing it would make it harder for people to get their votes in on time (would you believe one county cellophaned their only drop box and marked it CLOSED?) His appointee instituted several new policies to slow down the mail, including dismantling automated sorting machines ... though most of these were reversed. He went after ballot receipt deadlines.
Trump floating the idea that the Americans deserved to know the winner on Election Night, as if it were a Constitutional right, which is far from the truth. There has never been an election when all votes are finished tabulated that night. (Alaska, anyone?) That's why the Constitution allows for weeks for the votes to be tabulated before the electoral college votes in December.
But sure enough, Trump claimed victory in several battleground states while they were still counting -- where he was far from mathematically clinching the majorities.
And then he did what no other candidate had done in the past. He sued for some states to stop counting, when they hadn't even FINISHED THEIR FIRST COUNT. In 2000, 2004, 2016, each losing candidate at least waited for each state to finish their original count before taking any kind of action.
And as each stage of Trump's plan failed, he moved on to the next stage: suing to stop certifications, trying to get state legislatures to send alternative electors, and I'm not sure what comes next. Maybe after today he's done?
Perhaps he truly thinks that fraud occurred, and he's sincerely trying his hardest to expose it. But my alternative theory makes a lot of sense: Trump simply wants to stop the Biden votes. Attack the mail, the ballots, the timing, ... anything to keep power.
And yes, from where I stand, I see one the biggest onslaughts ever taken by a sitting president on our Constitution -- almost as if trying to pull what Putin successfully pulled off in his country earlier this year. And I can't tell you how elated I am to see that the Constitution is surviving this onslaught, and how I can fully appreciate the wisdom of our Founding Fathers when they created our government. It really gives me hope for the future of this country, for the first time in years.
Yes, it could just be my theory ... but man, does it fit the observations quite nicely!
Closing Thoughts
Whatever happens, we're in this together. I am pretty tough on Trump in this blog post, but I believe it's warranted. It's not directed toward any of my readers. I do not condemn anyone who voted for Trump. I fully understand why you like him. He does have some good traits that liberals have a hard time seeing.
Do you remember the protests four years ago and the whole "Resist" and "He is Not My President" movements? Do you remember how conservatives felt these movements were unconstitutional and disrespectful to the office of the president? Do you remember many saying how un-American it was?
I would likewise love to see all of you resist the temptation to do exactly the same when the electors choose Biden to be our next president next week. I hope you don't stoop to the same level and ignore the system that our Constitution has set up. The last thing I would want to see is a stupid civil war because some can't accept our chosen president as President.
More urgently, I'd like to say this to my conservative Georgia friends (of which there are many): you had better go vote in the special election. I really don't understand this self-destructive movement to boycott the vote because Trump is losing his election. I'll reiterate something I've said at least twice this year: if you don't go vote, I believe you will lose the right to complain about Biden getting full power when both Senate seats go to the Democrats. If you don't want Biden to get this power, then NOW is the time to act. Put it on your calendar: January 5, 2021. There is only one way for you to help keep the Senate red -- go vote! I know you have a beef about the Republican Party not supporting Trump, but the time will come later to take care of that.
Eventually I believe that this will all pass. My wife implies to me that I don't have to write this post, but you know me -- when I have something to say, I don't mind saying it. I'm hoping that going forward we can work together to find someone else better than Trump for 2024 who can do a much better job of reuniting America and truly strengthen our country. I think ultimately, we will figure it out.
How is it that the smartest country in the world with the most resources and innovation has people who still believe the coronavirus is a hoax? More to come after the latest news ...
General Update
Numbers are rising again in the US after a Thanksgiving reporting lag. It may take another week for the numbers to stabilize, but it seems clear that we're on the rise again. Deaths are now happening at their highest rate ever -- even more than in April, our last peak. And there is no sign that it's slowing down.
Cases per capita -- last 7 days:
Worst states: Minnesota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wyoming, Indiana.
Best states: Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, Virginia, Washington
Deaths per capita -- last 7 days:
Worst states: South Dakota, North Dakota, Iowa, New Mexico, Nebraska
Best states: Hawaii, Virginia, Vermont, California, Delaware
Not a Hoax
Now, back to my rant.
There's no nice way to put this, but how dumb can people be? How clueless can they be as to what's happening around the world? How many of their friends have to die before they accept that this is a 1 in 100 year event?
Actually, I can answer that last question. People who are actually experiencing this virus know beyond a shadow of a doubt that this virus is real, it kills, and it delivers a lot of pain and grief. Even the most stubborn of us will change our tune when faced with enough reality. How many times have you heard people who said, "It's a hoax," only to catch the virus and then tell all their friends that it's NOT a hoax?
So, for today, I thought I'd present a few videos to help you glimpse what it looks like at the end. Some of these are sad, but I want you to realize, this could happen to you, or it could happen to your friend or family member.
I'll start with this video from a mom in her final stages before dying talking about what it's like and why we need to avoid the virus.
Or perhaps you'd like to see it from a doctor's perspective. This is the somewhat famous Dr. Joseph Varon in Texas -- a frontline worker.
That was back in July, but here's an update from a couple of days ago ... he's been working nonstop over 250 days straight. His main frustration is that as soon as he helps one batch of people, there's another waiting, many of whom are doing the exact opposite of what the scientists and doctors have been asking us to do.
As he says in both videos: I'm fighting two wars ... one against the virus, and one against stupidity.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/health-55190012
It's one thing to praise our hospitals for saving lives with incredible procedures, but it's another to indicate that it's fine for people to get sick because the hospitals can handle them (flattening the curve). As I hope you learn from these videos, that no ... they're really not handling it. They're getting exhausted, and the worst is yet to come the next few weeks.
And finally one more ... an interview of funeral directors ... an interesting perspective:
At the end of that video, a director says: After this, my job has become easy -- nothing will ever be that difficult again. And this is a similar theme I keep hearing from hospitals and morgues: nothing like this has ever happened in their experience, and they can't wait till it's over to get back to the easy stuff.
And finally ... one last thing to consider. If you've been posting for months about how this virus is a hoax, keep in mind that those posts on Facebook and Twitter are forever. People are going to remember you as the crazy person who believed it was a hoax when there was so much evidence to the contrary. I only tell you this now because you get one more chance ... because after a few weeks from now, it's going to be too late. After the darkest winter anyone will have witnessed in their lifetime here in the US, we're going to remember the people who helped to spread the virus, and I don't think you would want to be remembered that way.
It's not to late to join the majority who are increasingly doing more to work together in fighting the virus. Together we can stop the death, so I invite you to join now ... drop the hoax act and fulfill your patriotic duty, and do your part.
... Or not. You're free to choose your own path, but you don't get to choose the consequences.
Today, I'm going to take it a little easy -- Thanksgiving and all that. I realize we're about to enter a really rough patch over the next two or three months, after which I expect we will all learn a lot more about this pandemic. I'm a little distressed that there still remain some who just don't get it. It's a shrinking minority, but still there, and still helping the virus to spread. We only need enough of us to get R(t) < 1.000 in order to protect more American lives.
So today, I'm going to hit you with a whole bunch of random facts that you either don't already know, or you may need a reminder.
But first, recent happenings ...
General Update
The good news is that new cases are trying to slow down. I'm not sure if it's a testing ceiling or the result of partial lockdowns in several states, but it could be a good development. Even active cases are trying to slow down. Hopefully it's not just a Thanksgiving Day lull in reporting ... we'll find out in a few days.
Cases per capita over the last 7 days:
5 worst states = North Dakota, Wyoming, New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota.
5 best states = Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, South Carolina.
My state: North Carolina is 8th from the best -- so, yay! My county of Forsyth is no longer in the top 20 in the state for cases.
Deaths per capita over the last 7 days:
5 worst states = South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska.
5 best states = Vermont, New Hampshire, Hawaii, California, Maine
The US is in 7th place for total deaths per capita, and it looks like we'll remain there for a while. Belgium is #1 with 0.14% of their entire population dead.
Random Facts
Okay -- so here we go -- random facts for your enlightenment -- in no particular order.
The Pfizer vaccine comes in 2 doses three weeks apart, and it could make you sick for a few days.
It will take months to fully distribute the vaccines, but we could have the virus fully under control by May.
The first three vaccines very close to being finished are use completely different methods to fight the virus -- each ingenious ideas and effective. It won't matter which one we take, and all three (and more) will be welcome.
So far, 36 US congressmen have tested positive for the coronavirus. Out of the Senate, all 8 are Republican. Out of the House, 18 are Republican, and 10 are Democrat.
Trump was praised in April for saving thousands if not millions of lives. At the end of April, we were up to 65,266 deaths. Since then we have had over 205,000 more deaths.
In another two weeks, our average daily death counts will pass our earlier peek in April.
About 20% of those who catch the virus experience adverse effects for months after recovering ... in some cases, people report feeling sicker than when they actually had the virus. This is called "Long Covid" or "Covid Long Hauler."
Sweden actually did institute some restrictions including:
Banning public gatherings with 50 or more people.
Recommending smaller gatherings to use risk assessments and institute mitigation methods.
Encouraging social distancing -- working from home, etc.
Moving secondary schools and colleges to remote learning (but not primary schools).
Also -- earlier this week, Sweden increased their restrictions: no more than 8 allowed in public gatherings.
The United States is the only "rich" country that has yet to get active cases down near zero. Other countries have gotten their cases to low levels before suffering resurgences.
Only four states have deaths per capita lower than the world average: Vermont, Maine, Alaska, Hawaii.
The virus doesn't care about the purpose of any meetings, any righteous convictions, or bravery. It kills indiscriminately.
There is no evidence that any country has reached herd immunity. Though some cities may have obtained this. The 20% threshold theory has been proven to be incorrect.
As of 10/3/2020, the US has had almost 300,000 excess deaths for 2020. Yet, some people still say that US excess deaths are low for the year. This is because they're comparing a 3Q number and projecting linearly to get a low yearly number without realizing that by far deaths tend to be highest during 4Q.
One estimate has that over 30% of the US population have contracted the virus -- much higher than the "official" 4%.
I hope you enjoy these. I'll be back with more next week.
The next couple of months are going to be painful, and sadness is going to hit most of us. I'm now up to two people who I know that have died, and this third wave has just begun. Even with a vaccine coming shortly, we still have to be vigilant to avoid as much death as we can in the coming weeks. If you haven't gotten there yet, you will most likely soon start to wonder, "What do I have to do to end all this?" We'll take a closer look after this update.
General Update
Cases are still rising in the US, but for the first time, it appears that we're starting to slow down a little. I'm not sure if it's because we've reached another testing ceiling, or if we're starting to see the effects of recently installed partial lockdowns in several states. Our death counts have officially met and passed our peak from the second wave, and it'll be another month before they slow down.
Per capita cases over the past week:
The five worst states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Iowa, Nebraska. (Extra points for anyone to find where I grabbed the picture at the top from.)
The five best states are: Hawaii, Maine, Vermont, Virginia, Oregon.
My state of North Carolina is still spiking. And so is my county of Forsyth (still in 12th place in the state). (My family is hunkering down.)
Per capita deaths over the past week:
The five worst states are: South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Wisconsin. (Stay away from that area -- really.)
The five best states are: Hawaii, Vermont, Alaska, New Hampshire, Maine.
In my state of North Carolina, deaths might be trying to go down -- it's kind of random.
The US is now in 8th place for total deaths at around 0.08% of our population. Over this past week, it's been going up and down between 7th and 9th place with the UK and Italy surpassing us and Chile going back under us. There are about 6 countries real close to each other in this range.
What Can You Do?
In any kind of disaster, it's human nature to feel bad about what's going on and to want to do something about it. It happened with 9/11, and it is happening with many of us now, though there remains a large minority still catching up.
So, what exactly can we do now? Are you ready to do your civic duty and help protect the vulnerable? If we work together, we can bring an end to this very quickly. We've seen it in South Korea, China, Japan, and many other countries. It's very possible -- and now we even know how to attack this disease while avoiding a lockdown at the same time, but it would take cooperation from nearly anyone.
How do these other countries do it and come out with much less death per capita than our country is doing right now? To put it simply ... the general public, themselves, are taking it seriously and they are working together. They are instituting correct behaviors that fight the virus, and they are helping each other to learn, remember, and act out what needs to be done. And it really isn't that tough.
STEP 1: Get educated. While we're being bombarded with misinformation, you can still do your own research. How does this virus work? What are its weaknesses? What are its strengths? What spreads it the most? What curbs its spread? I've known the answers for months, and have tried to share this info with you bit by bit. And all the information you need is available -- all waiting patiently for you to learn as well. It's not that hard, and I will summarize the big steps here.
First off, if you haven't already done so, I strongly recommend that you read the two most important newsletters I've written, primers -- if you will:
The Simplicity -- learn what the Goal of epidemiology is. I'll tell you right now -- it's to do whatever it takes to get R(t) < 1.0, or in other words, reduce the number of active cases. If we accomplish this one Goal, then mathematically, the virus kills itself off.
The Anti-Hype -- learn about the nefarious forces that are working to upset our one Goal. If you can come to understand how misinformation works, you can learn to combat it. And there is a very simple test -- if an idea or concept reduces the spread of the virus, then it must be good. However, if an idea or concept actually increases the spread and maximizes death, it is most likely part of this Anti-Hype.
STEP 2: Do the things that help to limit the spread. Here's a quick list.
Wear masks. This is probably the easiest way you can participate in the fight against the virus. It's more effective than most people think. We're at an estimated 70% coverage nationwide. I'll leave it up to you to do your own research on these points (see STEP 1), but I'll still give you links to my blabs for some optional reading.
Social distance as much as you can. This may mean staying at home, working from home, refraining from visiting friends in person, keeping distance, etc. It's all about reducing vectors of spread. You'll never know when you're the one spreading the virus until it's too late. Note that this is a temporary state until we get this much more under control. Keep in mind that Korea, China, Japan, etc., are pretty much open, but playing it safe. We can, too.
Get tested if you think you're sick or exposed. This is the fastest way to identify where the virus is, and to identify who needs to be quarantined. There is no way faster to choke the virus than to effectively identify and quarantine the sick and exposed. This is even much more effective than lockdowns.
Cooperate with contact tracing efforts. If you get a phone call, talk to the people and help them to put an end to this virus. It's all about identifying the sick and the exposed so that further death can be avoided. Talking to these people can saves lives.
Download a contact tracing app. Our human contact tracers could use our help. If you live in one of 17+ states participating in the Google/Apple contacting trace program, this app can help you to identify when you are exposed to the virus, and considerably speed up contact tracing -- and these apps protect your privacy as well. You could probably try to get your own state to participate if they aren't already.
Educate others. Information is power. If you can get others to adopt these behaviors, then the virus would have no chance.
STEP 3: Avoid doing actions that work to spread the virus. Here's a quick list of what NOT to do.
Go to crowded indoor places, with or without masks. Especially now, the chances of you catching and or spreading the virus are very high, even with masks on. You may have fun at your reunion, but then hate yourself later when two or more attendees die a month later. And an indoor rally is about the most dangerous event you can attend.
Go to crowded outdoor places without masks. Outside air is very good at dispersing aerosols, but one can still be infected by the larger droplets in close quarters. Don't believe those that say that outdoor protests and rallies are safe. Even with masks on, you will want to keep at least 6 feet away from people outside. Most of the bigger profile crowded indoor and outdoor events over the past months have proven to increase case volume in the cities they are held.
Ignore the virus. Some people see efforts to stop the virus as infringements on their freedoms, so they'll try to go about their lives as if there is no virus. We shouldn't be forcing people to comply, but if you truly want to limit the spread, this is the last thing you'll want to do.
Mock those who are working to stop the virus. Just don't do it. You wouldn't want to inadvertently inspire someone to stop fighting the virus.
Count solely on the vaccine. This will not be available to most of us for months. We will still need to be vigilant. As the vaccine starts to take hold, we will be able to relax our efforts and move back to normal ... however that time has not yet come.
Propagate misinformation. You may not be directly contributing to the spread, but we humans are a social bunch. We learn by example. If you post something on social media that says the virus is a hoax, someone is going to read it and believe you, and they're going to go out and get someone sick. Before you share that article, idea, argument, or whatever, first ask yourself the Anti-Hype test question: does this help to stop the spread? Or does it increase the spread? If the latter, then don't post it, as you will fall into the nefarious trap and contribute to the problem. Not posting it is about the best thing you can do to stop it from propagating.
When this is all over -- and it will end, and we will one day return to normal -- we will all be able to look back and see what happened. We will have 20/20 hindsight (sorry for the pun). And we will have a full knowledge of how we fared -- we will know if we helped or hindered. Decide now where you'd like to be remembered, and act now. Time is short, and the next couple of months will be very difficult and sad. It's not too late to minimize death and end this virus together.
Really good news coming out this past week. A new vaccine almost ready to be distributed, and more coming shortly. A possible nose spray to help protect us from daily exposure. A new antibody treatment that looks promising.
However, we still need to be vigilant ... I'll explain more after the break.
General Update
The numbers are still going up like crazy. The only good news is that deaths could be a lot higher, but give it another couple of weeks. Cases are through the roof, and that's bad -- deaths are lagging cases by about a month in Europe and other places, and now it's our turn.
Cases per capita over the past week:
The worst five states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Wyoming, Wisconsin.
The best five states are: Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, and California.
My state of North Carolina is at its highest case count right now, but other states are much worse. My county of Forsyth ranks 12th right now in the state in recent cases per capita, and is at its highest rate right now.
Deaths per capita over the past week:
The worst five states are: North Dakota (whoa nellie -- stay away from there), South Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, Kansas.
The best five states are: Vermont, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Maine, California.
Deaths in North Carolina are at their highest, and so are the deaths in Forsyth -- but still relatively low compared to the rest of the United States.
Overall, the US has moved up to 7th place as of yesterday, but it looks like the UK is going to fly by us and push us back to 8th any day now. We've been going back and forth between 7th and 8th place for a month now.
Vaccine Update
And now back to the vaccine. Good news ... right? 90% effectiveness?
This vaccine comes from BioNTech (Germany) and Pfizer (USA). They say they can provide 30-40 million doses of the virus in the next couple of months, and possibly up to 1.3 billion doses over a year's time. But note that this vaccine comes in two doses. You get one shot, and then another one three weeks later. So, these doses would only help 15-20 million people in the next couple of months, and 650 million people by the end of next year.
You may notice that's noticeably lower than 7 billion people in the world ... but remember, we only need to get R(t) < 1.0. If we choke the virus, it will go away on its own. Can Pfizer and BioNTech make these doses fast enough to save lives?
The bad news is that it doesn't help those who have already caught the virus. All those who are currently infected are still in trouble. (Though the new antibody treatment might be able to help -- as long as hospitalization figures can be kept down.) I am somewhat saddened to think about the slew of deaths about to play out over the next month -- nothing can stop that now. It's really depressing me.
We're also not sure yet how effective this vaccine will be on older people. Younger folks in these studies have the advantage of healthier immune systems and more T-Cells, etc. It's very possible that older folks will have less of a response to this vaccine -- but hopefully it will be enough.
Also, the pool supporting the 90% figure is actually pretty small. It does have a lot of credibility because of the size of the trials, but there are most likely several factors that have yet to be considered. In practice, we could very well see lower efficacy.
Since the studies aren't completely finished, this and other vaccines coming up can only be distributed on an emergency basis -- as decided by the FDA. This means that anyone receiving the vaccine will have to be monitored, such that if any ill effects pop up, the vaccine can be halted as soon as possible. But at least so far, this vaccine seems to be free of major side effects -- which is usually determined early on in the trials.
This vaccine also needs to be kept at very cold temperatures, which could be a challenge to distribute.
Someone like me -- early 50s with only minor issues, is likely NOT to be eligible for the vaccine for another couple of months. So, dang. Older people will get it first, and other vulnerable folks -- the ones most likely to die if they catch the virus.
Trump is taking credit for the success of this vaccine, but does he deserve it. He's right in the area of this being a major undertaking in such a short amount of time. He's also right about other similar vaccines coming out that will most likely be very effective as well. More than one vaccine is more than welcome.
However, there is much debate over how much Trump actually helped. BioNTech and Pfizer have yet to receive any money at all from Operation Warp Speed. They do have an agreement, though, and can stand to earn as much as $2 billion from the government as they distribute the vaccine. One could argue that this was sufficient financial incentive to get their act together and produce the vaccine sooner.
Also, had this played out differently and if we had nipped this thing in the bud in February/March (like South Korea did), then we wouldn't be needing these vaccines. We didn't see any Ebola vaccines to come out of our 2014 outbreak in the US -- because we eradicated it before it could spread (what a concept!). Though -- I just learned that Ebola vaccines have been produced in the past year ... hooray!
Can we trust the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine? The data seems to show that it's safe, and it may even be effective. I would not be afraid to take this vaccine.
However, don't forget these items of bad news:
We don't know how long this new Covid19 vaccine will be effective -- the antibodies could very well wear off anywhere from 6-12 months (or hopefully more) and allow us to be infected later on.
We're not sure yet how effective this will be on any upcoming mutations -- though if we make one version of the vaccine, it can be tweaked as needed.
We're not sure if the new mink mutation in Denmark will mess up the vaccine. Some experts think that specific mutation can render all vaccines useless. We could kill off one strain and allow this strain to take its place.
Remember that the distribution of the vaccine will be slow at first. (And several people that you know are likely to die anyway in the next month -- and so close to having been able to receive the vaccine!)
Relaxing now will only speed up the spread of the virus, leading to more deaths before the distribution of the vaccine can commence.
So, it's imperative to remember to behave in certain ways to get R(t) < 1.0. We need active cases to go down -- always -- no matter what develops. We can't wait to rely solely on the vaccine. We will need to employ several tactics in our arsenal against the virus. Maybe we'll quickly get that daily nose spray that we can use until we can get vaccinated. We can always wear masks -- it's still a very cheap and effective way to get R(t) down. We can continue washing our hands, and social distance as much as possible. And we can always cooperate with contact tracers, and if we get sick, make sure to alert all our friends to let them know they may be infected.
This is far from over, and we should not lose sight of the final goal. R(t) < 1.0. But soon, this and other vaccines will be able to help us in the fight.
Many seem to be sincerely surprised that Biden is slowly emerging victorious. Some even think it's some kind of fraud. And this is where I'm surprised, because what's happening now is exactly what I've seen in all of the recent elections back to 2000. There have always been states that take longer to count votes than other states. And this time -- we knew this going into the election -- it's exacerbated by many more mail-in ballots due to the coronavirus pandemic. It just takes more time to count all those mail-in ballots -- mainly because it takes more time to vet them, checking signatures, whether the person has already voted, and all other measures in place to make sure fraud and mistakes aren't happening.
Imagine this ... you're running the vote count for your state, and you've just finished election day. You got all your in-person votes. You're counting your early votes and checking the provisionals (ballots with issues). And you've got this desk with a gigantic pile of main-in votes. (Well -- maybe several desks.) How long should you wait before cutting off counting votes from that pile?
Or how about this? You're in line to vote where things shut down at 7PM. The line is moving very slowly, and it's 6:59PM. At 7PM, should the election officer cut off the line and send everyone home? Or should they let the remaining people vote?
There really is no difference between the two scenarios. If you're in line by 7PM, you're going to get your chance to vote, even if it takes three hours. And those votes are going to be counted.
And that tall stack of mail-in votes? There is absolutely nothing in the Constitution, nor in any state law that says that counting those votes has to finish by midnight Election Day. That's something crazy people have made up. The first deadline is December 14, when the designated electors are supposed to vote.
On Election night, Trump made the unprecedented move to claim victory in at least five states where he was in the lead, but where the states were nowhere near done counting the votes, and where no reputable forecaster had called them -- nothing I'd ever seen before in my life. Even in 2000 with Bush v. Gore, no action was taken until Florida had finished their first count.
But okay ... I need to keep this short and get back to the OP question. Trump was in the lead early on and was set for a landslide, but then the votes started flipping toward Biden. How is this possible?
It's really quite simple if you consider the following:
The coronavirus epidemic inspired several states to create and/or expand their absentee ballot process. My state of NC expanded its deadline for ballots to arrive in the mail (provided the envelopes are postmarked by Election Day). The idea was to make it easier for people to avoid having to show up in person to vote and spread the virus.
Republicans were more likely to show up in person on Election Day to vote. I usually do this, but not this year (I did absentee ballot and hand-delivered it.)
Democrats were more likely to use mail ballots, as Democrats tend to err on the side of caution, and Republicans tend to err on the side of not fearing the virus.
Big cities tend to be predominantly Democrat. Thus, a LOT of mail-in ballots come from big cities, and they lean heavily Democrat. (And LOTS of mail-in ballots take longer to count.)
Do you see it yet? For most states who are slow in counting, the in-person votes and perhaps early votes were counted first, which leaned heavily Republican. And that gigantic stack of mail-in votes that sat on all those desks? They take longer to vet and count, and they lean heavily Democrat. So, of course it was always going to look like a gigantic Trump lead followed by a "miraculous" Biden comeback.
But don't you fret. If you're worried about fraud or Trump losing, please consider the following:
In Arizona, Maricopa County still has a ton of outstanding mail-in ballots, and the city of Phoenix is known for its Republican population. We could see Biden's lead shrink, and Trump can still win the state. (Funny, peeps aren't asking for the vote counting to stop there.)
In Georgia, they still have to count outstanding military ballots, which will most likely lean Trump -- which would eat at Biden's lead, and possibly flip the state back to red.
In North Carolina, I don't think there are enough outstanding ballots for Biden to get in the lead.
Also remember that all these ballots should be well documented. After the fact, there will be ample time to recount, re-vet, and help us feel better about the whole process. Bad ballots will be thrown out (as they always are), and any fraud will be revealed.
Today I devote my newsletter to one of the most interesting friends I've ever known, but first ...
General Update
The numbers in the US keep going up. We've surpassed the 10 million mark for total coronavirus cases. Deaths are still relatively low, but starting to rise, lagging behind the most recent surge by about a month. The US was briefly in 7th place a couple of days ago in deaths per million, but just now got pushed back down to 8th place where we were last week. Looks like Argentina is passing through.
Cases per capita in the last week:
The five worst states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Montana
The five best states are: Vermont, Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, New York (tired of seeing Vermont on this list?)
My state of NC is still hanging in there -- cases keep rising, and we're breaking daily death records, but still a slow rate of growth. I wish cases were going down.
Deaths per capita in the last week:
The five worst states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas, Wisconsin
The five best states are: Vermont, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Maine, Virginia
Also, here are two interesting news articles. The first could be very bad news -- a new mutation of COVID19 in Denmark that may make it more difficult for humans to make antibodies. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54842643
However, the second could be very good news -- a possible prophylactic nose spray that could help end the pandemic. I'm going to give this one another week and perhaps report on it in more detail next week.
Now, for the rest of this newsletter, I'd like to remember Joey, the first friend I've lost to the coronavirus. Up to now, I've heard of people dying, but out of the first 200,000, not one of them were close to me -- perhaps a couple of deaths affected people I knew, but this death, which occurred earlier this week, was the first to affect me personally.
I was in Joey's second inner circle. Very few made it into the primary inner circle -- I was always too busy to qualify. But his death hits me just as hard, and it's hard to imagine not seeing him again.
So, let me tell you about Joey.
I met him the very first day I went to church in Winston Salem -- back in the spring of 2004, and it was very interesting. He latched on to my wife and me immediately, and I thought he was strange. He was one of those kinds of guy ... rubs most everyone the wrong way in a first impression. But guess what ... I'm that type of guy, too. Maybe he sensed that and tried to become friends immediately.
I knew he was different when we were all sitting in church, and behind us, he suddenly broke out in a verse of "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" in the heaviest tenor Bronx accent you could imagine. And yes, it could be said that he was a few cards short of a full deck, but that's what made him Joey.
But wait ... back then it was just Joe -- not Joey. Only the privileged few earned the right to call him Joey.
As you may gather from the picture above, he was probably the most patriotic person I have ever met -- definitely staunch conservative. He loved guns. He loved Trump.
He was one to go up often to bear testimony at my church, sometimes to the dismay of many of the people. He would tell us the most interesting stories -- about living in New York -- how he came to join our church -- how he was expected to continue the "family business" and how they let him get religion, walk away, and live. I was never sure how much of these stories were true, but they were certainly fun to listen to, and he almost always had good messages hidden in there.
He sang in our choir, and he couldn't sing. It would always come out high pitch (like a lady singing). Several wanted the choir director to tell him not to come, but most of us didn't have the heart to tell him no. (Like that Barney Fife episode.) We tried to give him a couple of lessons, but it was no use ... his brain just didn't work that way. I always thought he added an ethereal angel-like addition to our performances. I was just impressed that he would come when most men stay away from choir.
Did I mention that he loved guns? It was the one area where he was Einstein. He could tell you anything about any kind of gun. The one time I visited his apartment he had a wall full of guns. It was ... impressive. Though, they were all replicas or BB guns. Once he described to me how a thumb-print mechanism could unlock the trigger, so that only you were able to shoot the gun.
Every now and then in church, when it was asked, "Does anyone have an announcement" he would say, "I have an announcement. There's a knife and gun show coming this weekend. Does anyone want to go with me?"
In hindsight, I regret never taking him up on the offer.
He scared some of the church members, but I knew he was harmless. The guns thing was the one thing his brain picked up on ... kind of a savant type of thing.
I met him back when he was still new in our church -- he still held on to Catholic views, and every now and then he'd struggle with doctrines that opposed Catholicism. It got to be so bad that he got angry and left. I didn't see him for a few years as he attended other churches.
But then he came back, and this time he had changed. The anger was mostly gone. This time, he wanted everyone to call him Joey, and he hugged everyone who would hug him back.
When our church boundaries changed, he ended up being moved to a different time slot -- same building. But he still poked his head into our specific service, and I would still get hugs.
I mentioned that he loves Trump -- right? Well, last year he told me the story about how he met Trump years ago -- well before he became president. According to him, they sat in a room and talked for hours about New York and other common interests. I still wonder if the story were true, and if Trump would remember him. Maybe they talked for only a few minutes? The details he provided were at least consistent with how I would picture such a Trump encounter transpiring.
Then came the coronavirus. Back in January (as I hear it), when he learned about the epidemic, and when Trump seemed to take it more seriously than anyone else, Joey stopped going to church. He knew he was in high risk groups, and he didn't want to take any chances. He chose to stay home and away from people. I'm not sure if he started venturing out a month ago, or if a neighbor gave him the virus, but he caught it.
I'm not sure if I mentioned here, but last month we had a coronavirus scare, and Joey was the main source of that scare. He had met someone who met someone who met someone who met our family over a short period of time. The second person in line caught the virus and is doing fine, and it appears to have stopped there, though other avenues of spread near me seem to have opened up. Many of my friends are reporting that they are positive. (And I got tested, myself today.)
Joey did fine until he had to go to the hospital. He was in for a few days, and was discharged. But then he had to come back, and that time he was put on a ventilator. A few days ago he died. We were all praying for him, but it was evidently his time to go.
Church just won't be the same without him.
Joey, thanks for all the pleasant memories. You will always be remembered.
Okay, you guys. I'm tired. You're tired. We're all tired of COVID-19. And my power got knocked out by Zeta, so today's newsletter is going to be a ... recap!
First, the latest updates ...
General Update
I gotta give you some good news. Evidently, this fall/winter's flu season is off to a late start, largely because of our fight against COVID-19. We usually begin flu season by receiving it from the southern hemisphere who have just now ended their season, but not so many people are traveling here. And social distancing measures, and possibly even mask wearing, has caused the flu virus to take a big hit. So ... a pleasant surprise. It could help to offset some of the COVID deaths that are about to hit the next few months ... we'll have to see. I'll let you research this one on your own, but to get you started, here's just one of many reports on this.
And what does the NY Times dashboard tell us this week?
New case counts per capita over the past week:
The five worst states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Montana, Wyoming.
North Dakota and South Dakota also have the highest Total Cases per capita in the nation ... yes ... even more than New York and New Jersey.
The five best states are: Vermont, Maine, Hawaii, New Hampshire, New York .
My state of NC has counts still rising ... breaking records in the 7-day averages. And my county of Forsyth ... rising again after having started to come down a little after the Trump bump last month.
Death counts per capita over the past week:
The US remains in 8th place and Peru remains in 1st place, with 2nd place Belgium coming up fast.
The five worst states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, Arkansas.
The five best states are: Vermont (none), Maine (none), New York, Oregon, California.
The Recaps
Okay ... over the past couple of months, I've been providing weekly coronavirus newsletters, striving to bring together data and trying to explain things in a way that most anyone can understand. If you want to learn ... it's all knowledge that's available from all over the web. I've attempted to compile much of this information, and have even provided my own analyses. So, check out the topics below, and pick your poison. What would you like to learn more about?
Or, you could read these in order ... I tried to order them in levels of importance.
Here we go:
The Simplicity: What is the goal of epidemiology, and what simple things can *we* do today to help lower the number of active cases?
The Anti-Hype: What is the source of so much misinformation and contention? Learn about nefarious forces that are working to weaken our nation and maximize death. What is the best way to determine what information is good, and what is bad?
Voting: Is it safe to vote in person? (It's safer than you may think.) What are other alternatives to ensure your vote is counted? I placed this one high in importance just because our election is only a few days away.
Contact Tracing: What is it? How does it work? What can I do to help fight the virus?
Masks: Are they effective? How other other countries faring? Are masks against our freedoms?
Lockdowns: Do they work? Can we avoid them? Or in other words, is it possible to open everything up and protect our vulnerable at the same time?
Herd Immunity: What does this mean? Can we obtain it? And how much would it cost?
Building Immunity: What can we do to build our immunity, just in case we unfortunately catch this virus?
Trump's Report Card: How is Trump doing in the handling of this epidemic? Note: I was very tempted to add more recent events to this today, but decided against it. The results of his efforts speak for themselves.
Churches: What can we do to protect churches from spreading the virus like wildfire?
Schools: What can we do to open up schools and protect our children -- and more importantly the older staff, parents, and grandparents?
Miracle Cures: There are so many "cures" out there for those who have caught the virus. Which are effective, and which are more akin to snake oil? Written three months ago, it's already a little outdated!
And finally, about all this "tired" talk that I keep hearing about... Here's a video to remind us that some people will not be tired. They will continue doing their jobs ... people on the frontlines in the hospitals and in the funeral homes. I will also not be tired, but will continue doing my best to help us work together to end this. Giving up is the worst thing we could do at this moment. So, I'll be back next week.
General Update / Why Masks? / Masks in the World / Masks in the States / The Future
Today I'm going to talk about masks. So many times you've heard me say, "Put on the masks," but I haven't really explained why -- until now. If you'd like to learn the facts, keep on reading.
But first ...
General Update
The numbers keep rising. As the third wave begins, new case counts (on average) will shortly match the peak of mid July. Active cases are now already higher than they've ever been. Death rates are starting to rise again this week after being largely level for a few weeks.
New case counts per capita over the past week:
The five worst states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, Idaho (knocking Nebraska to 6th place)
The five best states are: Vermont, Maine, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Oregon (knocking New York to 6th place)
North Carolina is thinking about going back down again ... come on, my state -- you can do it!
Death counts per capita over the past week:
The US is still in 8th place in the world. Peru is #1.
The five worst states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas, Kansas (knocking Missouri to 6th place)
The five best states are: Vermont, Maine, Alaska, New York, New Hampshire (knocking Connecticut to 11th place, Oregon to 10th place, and New Jersey to 8th place)
Why Masks?
So why do so many people say we need to wear masks? And why do so many people say no? Are masks really that effective? How do they work? Are they affronts to our Constitutional rights? Let's take a closer look.
But keep in mind the main goal of epidemiology: to keep R(t) < 1.0, or in other words, create an environment where active cases are always decreasing. We don't have to be perfect in fighting the virus, but if we can get R(t) = 0.999 or lower, then the virus will die on its own ... simple math.
Now, let's go way back. I think the first time I remember seeing masks was during the 2003 SARS outbreak. I saw pictures from Asia, which showed all these people wearing masks.
And I'll be honest ... I didn't understand why they were wearing masks, and I thought back then, "Better them than us." I was glad it wasn't here in the states. It eventually infected over 8,000 people and killed 774 (almost a 10% mortality rate -- but perhaps that case count is an undercount).
And again in early 2020, this new SARS outbreak, what we call COVID-19, started again in Asia, and they put on masks. It started in the Wuhan area and quickly spread to the rest of the world. Some think that the masks worn across Asia helped them to contain it quickly. If it worked in 2003, perhaps it would work in 2020, and most Eastern Asian countries have had very low COVID-19 deaths per capita.
In contrast, Sweden, which has less than 1% mask coverage -- possibly the worst in the world -- is currently in 14th place in the world for deaths per capita.
Was it really the masks? Let's keep going.
The idea is that masks filter out the virus and allow us to breathe in virus-free air. We believe that the virus transmits primarily through "droplets" that we breathe out, and possibly through smaller "aerosols." The virus can't live very long outside of these shields of moisture. Droplets are heavy and tend to drop to the ground pretty quickly -- which is where the 6-feet separation rule comes in. Aerosols are much smaller and can linger in the air for much longer -- up to 30 minutes or more. If they are a major vehicle for virus transmission, then one can catch the virus more than 6 feet away ... and even from people who have already left the room. And aerosols are small enough to go directly into our lungs where the virus can do the most immediate damage.
To understand droplets and aerosols (microdroplets), I recommend this very information video.
The greatest takeaways from this video are:
Aerosols can be a big issue if they do indeed transmit COVID-19 (and evidence seems to support that this does seem to exist in super spreader events).
Plexiglass dividers may stop droplets effectively, but aerosols would have no problem floating around them.
The biggest defense against aerosols is airflow. This implies that outside is better than inside, and the most dangerous environments would be closed rooms with no airflow.
What does this mean for masks? We know they're really good at catching droplets, but maybe not so much aerosols -- some may seep out. Here's a fun video showing more "shadowgraph" shots of people with and without masks.
If it hasn't become clear yet, you've probably picked up from that video that masks work best in holding in the virus -- more so than it does in keeping the virus out. However, in a recent outbreak of the virus in and around the White House, Senator Thom Tillis (one of the few Republicans who regularly wears masks) appears to have caught the virus even though he wore a mask to the suspect Supreme Court Nomination party. The mask didn't stop the virus, but he most likely caught it from someone not wearing a mask (my money is on Senator Lee being the main culprit). Also, masks quickly lose their effectiveness if you're going around hugging people and getting close. I hope you saw in the video that some airflow does seem to get through the mask, but doesn't travel very far.
I won't get into the different kinds of masks ... I'll let you research that on your own. But it turns out that the mask doesn't have to be perfect to get R(t) < 1.0. If you infect just one person instead of ten, then the mask is worth it. And get this ... with universal mask coverage (when almost everyone wears a mask), the effectiveness is more than doubled because the virus has to get through two filters and not just one. Check out this video discussing the math behind this idea ...
In other words ... many people wearing imperfect masks really can lead to the eventual disappearance in the virus. In fact, I think we witnessed a taste of that when mask usage in the US increased in July and new cases started coming down (toward the end of the 2nd wave).
By now, I hope you see the potential use of masks. If everyone were to wear masks ... say 85% coverage, then it really could allow us to more fully open up our economy. Maybe a few of us would still catch the virus, but with R(t) < 1.0, the virus would quickly go away, and then we'd be able to shortly take off the masks and go back to normal.
But as you're about to see, masks aren't the only factor.
Masks in the World
I'll start by pointing out some outliers. On the most part, wearing masks seems to stop the virus, and not wearing masks allows it to spread, but not in these two countries ...
Peru instituted a universal mask mandate in place early on ... wear the mask or be thrown into prison. By mid-April, they had over 80% mask coverage.
BTW, I'm getting these mask coverage estimates from the IHME COVID-19 website. It was the only place where I could find these figures for each country in the world (and every US state), but I have no idea as to their accuracy. They do seem reasonable when compared to reports I've heard from around the world. At the website, scroll down to the "Mask use" chart for each country to see % coverage throughout the year.
So, Peru had nearly perfect mask coverage, but they also have the highest deaths per capita in the world.
And on the flip side, look at New Zealand, where mask coverage never went above 17%. Yet, they've had one of the lowest deaths per capita in the world.
Does this blow up the mask theory? Not necessarily. Peru had a lot of spread due to poor sanitation issues. The people were wearing masks, but many of the poor weren't washing them, and being in close quarters made the masks practically useless.
And New Zealand? They instituted a very strict lockdown protocol ... even stricter than in the US. It brought down the virus counts quickly, but at a very steep cost. Their economy took a big hit. Perhaps if they had used universal mask wearing, they could have opened up their economy much sooner (or even avoided a lockdown all together), and keep COVID-19 counts down.
So, I thought I'd try some fun and look at some selected countries. I took the top 10 countries in case counts and added some countries I have been following over the past few months. BTW, I like to get my data from worldometers. It provides awesome data at granular levels, and I think that the numbers are actually more accurate than the numbers John Hopkins reports.
For each of these countries, I estimated the most recent 2-week R(t). And I compared the results with current mask usage as per the IHME website. And I put the numbers into Excel and added pretty colors. Let me show you the results:
Green means good in these graphs, and Red means bad. Currently, you can see that 7 of these selected countries have R(t) < 1.0, which means active cases are going down, and those countries are becoming safer. And all of those countries have 65% or more mask coverage.
And looking toward the bottom of the graph, the mask colors tend toward the orange side. Of course, you'll notice some outliers. I already mentioned Peru had been doing very poorly, but they've finally turned it around. I'm surprised to see China's mask coverage so low at 59%, but this could be because they've had very few cases these past few months. They are only recently having a small resurgence in cases. Sweden is starting their next wave, and projections are for a very bad winter for them. Spain, who has the highest mask coverage, only recently got it up to 90% in the last month and a half, and their COVID numbers started to go back down, but in the last week have started coming back up.
I have no idea why Italy's doing so poorly. They've clearly been doing something wrong these past two weeks after having done so well. They've also been slowly ramping up mask coverage over the past month.
Masks in the States
And what about in the states? Since the data existed, I decided to look at all 50 states. Sometimes the results can be screwy -- especially in the low population states, but I went ahead and did it to see if I could find similar patterns. Our states are kind of like tiny little countries, each with their own governors.
So, first I sorted my data by best R(t), and this is what it looks like ...
For the four states with R(t) < 1.0, the mask coverage is at least 61%. I'm surprised that Georgia is doing so well, but maybe that's good news that we only need 60+% coverage. There might be something else going on, though. They had been pretty high in the recent past.
But overall, I see more green and yellow than I do orange in the "Masks" column. It is interesting that the highest mask wearing states in this collection are experiencing R(t) > 1.0. A reminder that mask wearing is just one factor in the big equation ... if we're not doing contact tracing and adequate tracing and quarantining, or if we're allowing many indoor events or close contact, it could help lessen the effectiveness of masks.
Plus ... keep in mind that I only grabbed a snapshot in time, which may not provide a full accurate picture. For example, Vermont, not on this exhibit, has 76% mask coverage, but is currently experiencing a small outbreak, bringing their R(t) to 1.5. If the masks are effective, we'll see this quickly come back down, much like what we've seen a couple of times in South Korea.
But look at this ... I decided to sort the data with worst mask wearing on top, and check it out!
The only three states to have mask coverage under 50% are all doing terribly. Also, in this exhibit, I see more red and yellow cells for two-week R(t), than I do green cells.
Georgia is the first state to appear with R(t) < 1.0, and we already talked about them.
The Future
What comes next is up to us. We struggle because we value this thing called freedom. You can't tell me what to wear on my face. Even though I understand this, I'll be honest ... it rubs me the wrong way. If I see a cheap method to save lives, I'm going to implement it, because I care about my country and I want it to succeed.
This cartoon captures the sentiment I have toward those who choose not to wear masks ...
But you know what? I think eventually, the vast majority of us are going to choose to wear masks very soon. We're almost at 70% coverage today, and it's slowly inching upward.
What's going to happen is that as deaths ramp up in combination with flu deaths starting in December and lasting through February, I think we're finally going to drop this strange Anti attitude, and we're finally going to band together and do what it takes to kill off this virus for good. How do I know this? Because I've already seen it happen.
In my state of North Carolina, a healthy 19-yr-old student died of COVID-19 complications and almost immediately, students started wearing masks. In Spain, the latest increase of mask wearing has been in response to a scary second wave.
Of course, we would all be better off if we were to comply now and save a lot of lives this winter. But we'll probably wait until we're compelled to wear a mask, and then it may already be too late. How better it would be to do it now rather than to be compelled later.
Conclusions: it appears that masks do have a level of effectiveness. They're not perfect, but again they don't have to be. Most states and countries that are succeeding have higher mask coverage. However, it appears mask wearing doesn't work alone. It seems other mitigation factors are still needed to work with mask wearing to get R(t) < 1.0, such as better contact tracing, testing, or better mitigation techniques such as holding events outside or increasing air flow inside of buildings to scatter and/or destroy aerosols.
I hope you stuck with me through this exposition ... I tried to make it fun and informative. It's not too late to work together to get R(t) < 1.0 ... to do our part to help out our country and open it up more safely. Perhaps you learned something, or at least I've given you something to think about. If you liked what you read, feel free to share with your friends. There's a whole library of truth waiting for anyone who really wants to learn it. They just have to do a little research and find it. And that knowledge will wait for those who become ready for it.
