I usually try to get these presidential previews out much earlier than this, but I've been busy. So in my four-year look ahead, I now have the advantage of hindsight for Biden's first 100 days. What's going to happen in the next four years?
Let me get the easy stuff out of the way, first. I have every reason to believe Biden is still going to be alive in four years. He may be on the sickly side, but his doctors are going to keep him alive. Will he run for a second term? I don't think so.
Undoing Trump
We should be used to this by now. Trump undid a lot of Obama, and Biden has already undone a lot of Trump -- so it earns first place on my list. On the most part I am happy with these actions. If you've been following my articles, there were several Trump policies that I opposed, even though I'm mostly a conservative.
I won't harp too much on this, except to note one Trump policy that still remains in place. We still have the tax cuts, including the 21% corporate tax rate. Biden wants to split the difference between that and the prior 35% to bring us to 28%. I'm personally opposed to this idea -- as everyone agrees that it will lead to job loss -- mainly among the middle class. He also wants to institute a minimum corporate tax, of which I strongly oppose. We should close the loopholes instead of punishing corporations for timing issues leading to temporary lower paid taxes.
Biden promises to leave alone the taxes on the first $400k of personal income, which I'm certain will stand -- the middle class tax rates will not change despite a lot of misinformation going around. But Biden does plan on raising taxes on income past $400k, including capital gains tax -- and I'm perfectly fine with this.
But will this pass through Congress? I think it will.
The Coronavirus
Overall, I think Biden's handling of the pandemic is okay. It's a lot better than Trump's handling. If Biden had done even the littlest thing at all to combat the virus, he would have done better than Trump after April 2020. As of now, I see vastly improved numbers and the situation is still getting better. Biden has successfully provided additional support to the states to help distribute the vaccine.
However, Biden seems a little wishy washy in areas that could have really helped get the numbers down even faster. Instead of only asking everyone to wear masks, he could have instituted an actual mask mandate. He could be doing a lot more to incentivize people to be vaccinated -- such as mandating vaccine passports and requiring them at places of transportation. He could have pushed the Google/Apple contact tracing technology and require a national use of it -- which really could help identify much more quickly the asymptomatic virus transfer. You may have seen my article as to what I would have done if I were president.
But maybe Biden has done enough -- maybe we'll see the virus go away now and normality by July 4th. It all depends on what happens next. The coronavirus numbers began coming down drastically in January when it was clear how Biden was going to lead.
Immigration
Will we ever have a president who gets this right? Trump, in my opinion was too strict in his immigration policy -- much more effectively lowering legal immigration than he did illegal immigration -- including a new policy to start rejecting green card renewals -- punishing those who "came through the gate legally." And building an expensive symbolic ineffective wall -- which evidently can still be scaled and dug underneath.
On the other hand, Biden seems to be too light on immigration. As soon as he got in office, immigration attempts skyrocketed -- especially among children. He says that it's just a winter rush of immigration, but we all know it's because everyone down south thinks Biden is "such a great guy." It also didn't help that Biden announced that we're not going to turn away the children. And it also seems that "catch and release" is back on the table.
It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Maybe one day we'll get a president who can most effectively manage our borders. Not too strict. Not too light. More people coming in legally and paying taxes, and much less illegal immigration.
Obamacare
I have no idea what comes next, here. My guess is that Biden will reinstitute the individual mandate. Technically it still exists, but it's just set at $0. My prediction is that very little will happen in the area of healthcare, and prices will continue to increase.
Global Warming
The "scientist" side of me is actually a little excited about Biden's plans to counter global warming. Overall, since 2000, pollution from the US per capita has been decreasing as technologies improve, but we're still one of the highest per capita polluters.
However, I am a little concerned with the price tag on Biden's current infrastructure proposal. Trillions of dollars is a big deal, even if spread out over several years. It still falls far short of the impossibly ambitious Green New Deal, but it still seems to be too ambitious, possibly even including a lot of expensive liberal programs that don't really have much to do with global warming. (I haven't yet studied what's in that plan.)
I'm happy that Biden is doing something, but isn't there some innovative solution somewhere in the middle? I love the idea of building up solar cells to supplement our already-existing power supplies. (I've got some ideas in that area that I may share one day.) That doesn't seem to be too expensive. And within a couple of decades, we're likely to get some cold fusion going, which will be a much more efficient and cleaner energy source that would drastically reduce pollution just by the virtue of it becoming available.
We'll see what happens. I expect that the current proposal will NOT pass, but a watered-down version may eventually pass.
Midterm Elections
I'm going to go ahead and make a bold prediction -- that Republicans will NOT overtake the House nor the Senate. Well -- small chance they may get the Senate, but I believe the attempt to overturn the election supported by so many big named Republicans is going to backfire -- just as it did in the January special election in GA. Plus, I predict that many independents will actually like what Biden will have accomplished and will vote Democrat at the end of next year.
I'm not sure what to think about this development. A lot of my conservative friends fear that the "Socialist Democratic Party" will destroy our country. I wouldn't say we're going that far -- we'll definitely survive and have another chance later for conservatives to get back into power. But I do believe we may end up erring in the area of losing jobs and have another recession in a few years.
But then again -- I think that Republicans lost their seat at the table when they put Trump in the big chair. And they will likely be kept from that seat as long as they continue pushing the Trump agenda (which is only popular among a 30% base -- and not so much among independents anymore).
National Unity
This is where I saw the most hope for Biden. Obama divided us. Trump divided us ten times more than Obama did. I saw a very toxic situation brewing, which I think has already been diffused immensely ever since Biden got sworn into office. I still think Biden may have a chance in bringing Americans closer together.
However, he certainly has a strange way to carry this out. In this area I am somewhat disappointed already. Trump had said in his inaugural speech, "Come to me and I will unite you." (So funny!) Biden did a much better job in his speech asking for unity, but unfortunately, at a later time, he too said his version of "Come to me and I will unite you."
Biden seems to be really good at pushing liberal ideas, but I'm not seeing much conservative ideas being pushed. Also, Biden still doesn't seem to do too well when it comes to answering antagonistic questions. He, like Trump, seems to be very capable of walking off stage when the questions get tough.
In addition, he's not very good at winning over the Trump camp. Just like Obama did to Bush, and what Trump did to Obama, Biden is certainly continuing the blaming of the former president. He even continues to misrepresent what Trump says and utters inaccuracies all the time. For example, he blasts Trump's handling of the vaccine rollout, but then when he took over, the graph of vaccine shots per day did not really change its trend. Biden was simply continuing what Trump had started.
If Biden wants unity, he needs to speak the truth. He needs to acknowledge Trump where Trump did well. If he had simply thanked Trump for Operation Warp Speed and put him on a pedestal while praising the vaccine, then so many more conservatives would be getting the vaccine right now, and so many more conservatives might be thinking, "Biden isn't as bad as we thought he'd be."
I know Biden's heart is in the right place, but his current tactics just aren't working. Maybe he'll figure it out eventually. Those with good hearts tend to ultimately find the right answers.
My prediction on this front: I think we'll ultimately become more unified -- whether it be from the absence of a toxic president, or from Biden finally bringing us together.
Closing Remarks
Biden would not be my personal pick for president, but for the 2020 election, I did vote for him because that's what I thought was best for our nation. And that's even with me disagreeing with a lot of his policies. Ten years ago, I would have never imagined myself voting for him -- especially when I had remarked, "He looks just like his party mascot!" But yet, that's how my vote went.
Even though I may express some disappointment in Biden today and over the next four years, I do not regret my vote, and I am unlikely to regret it (I do not regret any of my presidential votes over my entire voting record). I know what direction we were heading, and I believe we've dodged that future for now. We get to survive another four years. I also know that things will not get as bad as many of my conservatives fear -- because I actually listen to what Biden is saying, and not what others say that he's saying.
Biden may continue to be wishy-washy, and provide us with plenty of funny senior moments. I think he'll fail at some of his goals, but will succeed in other areas. I also anticipate that the next four years will not be as exciting as the last four years (as I already enjoy the fact that I can go days without worrying about what the president is doing). But ... we'll see what happens.
Welcome to a special edition coronavirus newsletter. I figured now would be the best time to provide a quick vaccine update. Overall, this is really good news, as all signs point to an actual end to this pandemic, and a relatively quick return to a normal life. I thought I would clarify some questions about the vaccine based on my recent research and also provide my own predictions. I will say outright that the health departments and the press have been downplaying these vaccines big time, so much that it's confusing many people who have valid concerns.
I will also now make a bold prediction that the vast majority of those reading this newsletter will ultimately choose to get vaccinated of their own volition, and I think you know this deep down. Maybe you'll choose to do so sooner rather than later, but we'll see.
What I'm going to do in this article is to first present four scenarios that are likely to play out, and I will also speak to several different concerns. And at the very end, I will finish off with my own personal testimony as a Christian for those who may appreciate it.
First off, I should point out that some people probably should NOT get vaccinated. If you have certain health conditions, you should discuss with a doctor. If a doctor tells you "no," then don't get vaccinated. If you are allergic to some inoculations, you might want to consider the Johnson & Johnson shot instead of Pfizer or Moderna. Also, if you've recently recovered from COVID19, you're likely to have protection for a while -- maybe six months. Everyone should keep this in mind and not be too judgmental. We just need "enough" to be vaccinated in order for this to end.
Scenario #1: The Happy Scenario
Once we hit a certain level of herd immunity, new infections will fall, and eventually the virus will disappear -- or it will become a very small trickle that's easy to handle. We could hit this level if we have enough people who get vaccinated plus those recently recovered from COVID19. For example, if 50% get fully vaccinated, and 20% have recent sickness protection, that would get us up to 70%. And if that's enough coverage (we're not sure what the right number is, yet), then we will hit this immunity pretty quickly and -- you wouldn't have to get vaccinated. And more power to us! I would love this outcome. The masks would come off, and everyone would be happy as things return to normal.
However -- you may already guess that I place a small probability on this outcome. I think that if we want to end this for good, we're going to need 90% total coverage as soon as possible. Even with herd immunity with a still-high base of active cases, I think it would still leave enough fuel for the virus to continue infecting the unvaccinated and mutate to new viruses that will resist the vaccines (ending herd immunity for everyone), which would then require booster shots.
I do think it is highly likely that we will have to get at least one additional booster shot toward the end of this year. However, if we could somehow get up to 90% coverage fast enough, we could avoid this booster.
Scenario #2: The Peer Pressure Scenario
I notice that the vast majority of my friends on social media want this shot and are more than happy to share when they get their shots. These come from friends of all walks of life: liberals, conservatives, religious, atheist, and so on. The ones complaining about the shots are a shrinking minority. Depending on which poll you believe, the number who want the shot is around the 60-80% range.
Many of the remaining group may simply choose to go ahead and get vaccinated because they just don't want to be a holdout. That would be fine with me ... the more who get vaccinated, the better. Out of the four scenarios, I see this one as the most likely to play out.
Scenario #3: The Vaccine Passport Scenario
Biden has already made it clear that he's not going to force these vaccines nor the passports on us. He's going to leave it to the private sector to decide. And I think governors can still institute their own mandates.
I fully support the idea of instituting vaccine passports, whether it be a governor's executive order or a business's choice, as I believe it would help to expedite going back to normal more quickly without worrying so much about infecting the unvaccinated and inviting mutations and so on.
Newer studies are showing good evidence that 12 days after a full vaccination, we receive near-full protection from COVID19 and most of the current variants -- even stronger protection than one gets from recovering from the virus itself. And asymptomatic transfer may even be reduced significantly.
I personally think masks aren't as necessary for the fully vaccinated person, but there does remain around a 10% chance of still getting a mild case of the virus and possibly infecting someone else, so it would probably still be prudent to go ahead and continue wearing masks until base active counts get to be low again -- which won't be long if most of us get vaccinated.
In this vaccine passport scenario, it's likely that many of the resisters may get the vaccine so they can more freely get around, though they may feel that their freedoms are taken away. But then they'll be fine once everything goes back to normal. However, I place a low probability on this whole scenario, as Biden doesn't have enough gumption to push the vaccine passports on a national level, and I think there will be too much resistance. For example, Governor DeSantis has already banned all vaccine passports in Florida, even as that state is starting their next surge.
Scenario #4: The Drag-It-Out Worst Case Scenario
I really hope it doesn't come to this. If enough people resist the vaccines and we don't hit the desired herd immunity, then this thing is going to drag out even longer -- past July 4th -- past Thanksgiving -- past Christmas -- into 2022 and beyond. This is because mutations will continue to pop up, requiring further booster shots from updated vaccines -- maybe every 6 months or so. We'll see much more reinfections occurring.
But here's the catch ... the ones dying will mostly be among those who still refuse to be vaccinated. And there will come the time when they finally figure it out ... "We're dying. Okay -- we'll take the shot." I don't want to see my friends end this way. I also don't want to see this thing linger much longer.
So, let's take a closer look at some of the concerns that keep popping up.
I don't want to lose my freedoms.
I have never seen it this way and probably never will. And as I mentioned above, Biden isn't going to push it.
We are all free to choose, but we don't get to choose the consequences.
If we refuse the shot and die from COVID19 complications, we would have exercised our freedoms, but we would also have lost access to the rest of our lives. Further, if we refuse the shot, we could end up infecting another person who ends up dying -- thus curtailing the freedoms of that person.
Most people who get the vaccine get a sore arm, and then ... well ... they get back to their own lives, fully capable of enjoying their freedoms.
The FDA hasn't approved these vaccines.
This is true. It is being allowed only on an emergency basis. In fact, they're still doing tests to determine long-time efficacy and to determine any further long-term effects. This is also the first time mRNA vaccines have been allowed to be administered to the public (Pfizer and Moderna). This is amazing new technology, which could have tremendous applications against other viruses once it's proven to be safe enough. And no ... they do not change our DNA. The mRNA fragments don't even enter our cells -- a fact that may make this the safest type of vaccine ever created.
Being on emergency basis, the US continues to monitor results arising from the three approved vaccines: Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson&Johnson. So far, side effects and deaths are few -- with deaths being as low as compared to "not getting the vaccine." Experience is strongly supporting the fact that these vaccines are safe. (Though -- as I said before -- some people with underlying conditions may be more susceptible to adverse side effects -- if you suspect this, do your research -- talk to your doctor.)
These shots have aborted fetus tissue.
This is not quite true. Though, all three approved vaccines (and many of the other vaccinations) make use of cell cultures grown from three specific aborted fetuses from the 60s-80s. These cells are used either in the testing or in the production process, but as far as I can tell, these cells aren't in the final products. These same culture cells have also already been used around the world for decades for other medical purposes ... and yes ... they really do grow from the same three fetuses. No new abortions are needed to create these vaccines. If you want more details, you can read more in my earlier blog entry.
Or you can consider that the Pope and the leader of my church, Pres. Nelson, both of whom are fully aware of the existence of these cell cultures, have approved these vaccines, have received these vaccines, and have urged us all to get vaccinated. (Click the following pictures for more information.)
But I really like Trump, so I'm not getting the shot.
I doubt that any of you are saying this exactly, but I do notice that most people resisting the vaccine are on the conservative side, and most are avid Trump supporters. And sometimes it seems to me that they choose to fight the vaccine because it's one way to show their love and support for Trump. Or it may simply be that they pick up this sentiment visiting Parler or other conservative-leaning platforms.
If this really is the one thing holding you back, then please listen to Trump. These vaccines that we have now represent one thing Trump has done right in this pandemic. It is Trump's legacy, which is saving lives today.
Trump received at least the first shot of the vaccine in January. At CPAC, he urged everybody to get the shot.
And Trump emphasized this again in a recent phone interview on Fox News.
Trump wants you to be vaccinated -- he wants his legacy to be a success. Please don't let him down.
My final testimony
And lastly, I'd like to present my own personal religious testimony, Christian to other religionists. I usually like to keep these posts agnostic so all readers can benefit, but I feel that what I wish to say sincerely here will reach many of you.
You may remember during the beginning parts of the pandemic, right after lockdowns were urged in nearly every state -- there was much prayer and fasting for the epidemic to end. Pres. Nelson, of my own church, invited people from around the world to join in prayer and fasting on 4/10/2020 (Good Friday) -- exactly one year ago today. He asked us to pray for an end of the pandemic and that our lives would be normalized.
And many people of many faiths joined in the prayer on Good Friday -- either by invitation or independently. In my city of Winston-Salem, my wife and I watched a broadcast from our city government -- an hour of prayer and reflection from several religious leaders, including Christian, Muslim, Buddhist, Wiccan, and other religions.
I really believed something big would come out of this unification in prayer -- some miracle cure or other event that would save lives. But we would yet have another 500,000+ deaths in our nation alone. Was it in vain?
I've have only recently come to discover that something big did happen in April 2020 -- shortly after all the prayer and fasting. The first version of the first two vaccines to be approved in the US, Moderna and Pfizer, was finished and clinical trials began -- yes -- in April. Johnson&Johnson followed afterwards with trials beginning in July. And these vaccines would be among the most effective vaccines ever made -- as good as if not better than our current shots for measles and chicken pox. These vaccines put our flu vaccines to shame. It did take a while for adequate testing before being released to the public, but we have them now.
I believe these vaccines were a direct answer to all of our united fasting and prayer from different religions. God listened and provided us the key to stopping more death, normalizing our lives, and being healthy again. He had inspired the doctors and scientists to create very effective vaccines. He knows the count of our days and has let us know that He intends for us to live longer -- that it is not yet our time to die.
So, I happily choose to accept God's gift, and take this vaccine so that it may extend my life, and save the lives of others, and help bring us back to normality. I am not going to throw away the shot that He has provided.
Four years ago, I made a series of predictions about Trump's first term. A little over halfway into his term, I posted an update. Today I'll finish out the backtesting -- how well did I do in my predictions? To save myself time, if there's no change between my mid-term report and today, I'll only give you the new developments.
"The next four years will be interesting." Ding ding ding ding -- that one was too easy.
Social issues
I was mostly off on this: "I don't think Trump will be as bad as many of my left-leaning friends fear." Technically this turned out to be true only in that it could have been much worse, but it was still pretty bad. Most of my right-leaning friends don't see this, but they also don't want to see it. I, on the other hand can't unsee what I've seen.
LGBT concerns: Pretty much nailed it.
Obamacare: As I mentioned before, Trump and friends failed to come up with a replacement, and healthcare costs are still high. Will it be a disaster with the mandate removed? It's still too soon to tell.
Immigration: It got even worse in the last two years. Many people don't seem to understand that Trump made it much harder to legally enter the United States. Quotas for refugees were drastically reduced. Those with green cards (also known as those who went through the gate legally) were hit with new rules to make it harder to remain in the country (while one of Trump's people ridiculed the Statue of Liberty). H1-B visas have gotten even more scarce. Refugees were treated contrary to the Geneva Refugee Convention, including deporting them back into danger and sometimes death, and permanently separating over a thousand children from their parents -- helping us to really stand out in the world. He did have portions of his Wall built, but not much. It still remains ugly, symbolic, ineffective, and expensive. Mexicans have already demonstrated that they can climb it and still dig under it.
And Mexico never did pay for the wall -- so I got that one right.
Muslims: Nothing new here -- I pretty much got that one right.
Black people: Tensions certainly increased in the last two years, including some highway protests -- so I'll give myself a thumbs-up on that. I still don't see Trump as racist toward black people, just someone who doesn't know how to handle these tensions correctly. He could have easily helped to diffuse many of the Black Lives Matter protests in 2020, but he ended up exacerbating the tensions -- I think mostly due to incompetence and thinking a ill-executed "Law and Order" campaign would actually work.
Trump as Hitler
I'll give myself a thumbs-up for saying Trump would not turn into Hitler. I still don't see him as evil. Though ... "Trump will usher in a disaster from his ignorance." A big thumbs-up to me. Ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding! Can someone say coronavirus? On this topic alone, I could go on and on and on, which I do in this post.
And though "Hitler" never happened, I had no idea that "Putin" would show up big time in Trump during the 2020 elections and how he tried to upend our Constitution in an attempt to maintain power. I chronicle much of what transpired here, but this doesn't include the Capitol riots. Depending on what occurs over the next couple of months, I may dive deeper into this big hoax, but I really don't want to have to do it.
Fake news
When I said Trump would have "zero effect" in silencing his opponents, I was right in that I don't believe any news outlets got in trouble or suffered. On the contrary, they may have flourished. But I was wrong in that Trump did succeed in convincing millions of Americans that reputable news sources really aren't "reputable."
And something I didn't see at all: fringe outlets such as OAN and Newsmax actually got a big boost after Fox News called Arizona for Biden in early November (they were only following the AP). Such a silly thing to get angry about. Move over Fox News, here comes something scarier!
And at the same time Twitter and Facebook made the stupidest mistake of silencing many of my conservative friends by flagging posts and deleting them. This pushed many conservatives to more conservative social media sites such as Parler, thus creating a dangerous confirmation bias environment.
Now I think we're still in a very precarious situation, and much, much, much closer to that strange civil war I keep warning about. Though, Biden becoming president seems to have already helped to diffuse this greatly.
"Perhaps we just need to take away his Twitter account." LOL! I had no idea how prophetic this sentence would turn out to be!
Money
I hit the money on the Federal Reserve (nothing happened -- really). And corporations really are flourishing. Though our deficit took a big hit -- even before coronavirus hit.
Foreign Relations
I was thankfully wrong about: "we will see one, if not two attacks." We have yet to see our next sizable foreign terrorist attack on our soil since 9/11. Though, domestic violence has increased greatly.
I was also wrong about Trump -- big time -- when it came to his big win helping to broker a peace deal in the Middle East -- didn't see that one coming.
Russia again did try to help Trump maintain power, but looks like it failed. Trump losing actually increases the chances of Putin's rival to gain more popularity and perhaps get into power. Russia continues to influence our social media ... big time, and most Americans still continue to fall into their scientifically-generated traps. (More about that later.)
Trump's Gift to Unite
It never happened. Trump never did rise to this call. He proved time and time again that his ability to maintain power was much more important than anything else. He has divided us further. He has made people more angry -- in particular, his base. He has turned himself into an idol -- bigger than his Party even, and sometimes even bigger than God. He has critically weakened the Republican Party, which is now likely to fall and possibly give way to another party.
It has been a very interesting four years. In some respects we may be better off, but in many others I think we are frighteningly worse off. I think my predictions turned out to be reasonable, though I missed a couple of big items.
Up next -- I will do my own forecast of Biden's upcoming four years. I think that task will be more difficult. Heh.
As a fiscal conservative, I'm watching with great interest the apparent downfall of the Republican Party, which I once belonged to. In the 2020 election, the Party did make gains in the House but failed to take the majority, and they also lost the Senate and the presidency, giving near-full control to the Democratic Party.
In the wake of the Capitol storming, many people are now leaving the Republican Party. This NPR article gives some scary numbers. More than 4,600 Republicans removed their names from the Party in Colorado. 6,000 in North Carolina, 10,000 in Pennsylvania, and 5,000 in Arizona. And in red Utah, as many as 7,600. As one defector says,"it's just become the party of mean people." Another one says, "I would probably never vote for another Republican again." Yet another person defected because the Republican Party "turned their backs completely on Trump."
According to this Reuters article, over 60 former W. Bush officials have left the Party -- one saying, "The Republican Party as I knew it no longer exists. I'd call it the cult of Trump."
I left, myself, in January 2016, saying, "If this is what the Republican Party is becoming, I want no part of it." I changed my status to Unaffiliated. At the time I was very sad not to have a conservative party to call my own (a topic for later).
So, what's going on? Is the Republican Party falling apart? Will it continue to bleed members? Can the Party save itself? Perhaps, but by my reckoning, they must act now. One thing's for certain -- this exodus really did happen because of one man -- Donald Trump. Whether they like him or not, people are leaving either because they didn't want the Republican Party to incorporate Trump and his controversial policies, or because they feel the Party abandoned Trump. So ... yeah ... Trump, Trump, Trump.
In my specific case, if it had been just about any other candidate in 2016: Rubio, Carson, or even Cruz, I would have voted Republican -- 99% chance. I definitely did not want Hilary, and instead voted third party.
In 2020 I would have again most likely voted for any other candidate other than Trump or anyone who supported his controversial policies. Instead I chose to vote Biden, hoping the Republican Party would reboot and pick someone else for 2024.
I realize that most of my intended audience still likes Trump, and he did indeed accomplish some amazing things that only he could get away with: brokering a deal in the Middle East, diffusing the situation in North Korea. I get it.
But we've got to face it. Trump will never be president again. He's not going to get anywhere enough votes after the storming of the Capitol. You can see here that his average approval rating dropped like a rock just a couple of days after the event. Sure, he'd get his 30% base, but no independent, and definitely no Democrat is going to vote for man they believe tried to overturn the election along with the Constitution with very flimsy evidence of election fraud.
This also goes for any prominent Republican who supported Trump and his "Big Lie." That's what the majority of people are calling the whole election turnover attempt. Cruz and Hawley have absolutely no chance, and heaven forbid if Greene ever runs. While you may like these guys and would actually want them in the White House, I don't think they're electable. I sure wouldn't vote for any of them now.
Also, imagine this scenario: Trump, or someone else, breaks off and forms their own "Patriot" Party. What do you think would happen? That's right. The conservative vote would split. I'd probably vote Republican, a lot of you would vote for Trump, and the Democrats would win. 2024. 2028. And even 2032 ... we're looking at possibly two decades of Democrats enjoying free rein in our government before conservatives get their act together, and by then, good luck to our economy.
So How Can the Party Survive?
We first need to realize the true cause of the Republican Party's wound. It's not really Trump -- he's just the face of the real issue. When other people look at the Party, all they see is Inconsistency.
In late 2015 as Trump was pushing his presidential bid, most of the prominent Republican candidates were unified in their condemnation of Trump. They called him racist, xenophobic, radical, uncouth, and unelectable. They considered him to be a joke.
This was until December 2015 when Trump described his Muslim ban. At first everyone condemned this idea -- even Cruz. But then something happened. The candidates saw Trump's base increasing, and I think they did what they thought was best for their own careers. One candidate said, "Wait -- let's listen to Trump. He might be on to something with this ban." And then everything changed.
Trump didn't change -- the Republican Party changed and incorporated Trump and his controversial policies. The Party had first condemned Trump, and then they lost their spines. At least that's what the majority of the world is saying.
The number of conservatives who stayed consistent were few. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio continued to stand up to Trump throughout the election. Senator Romney stood up to Trump several times over the past four years, even voting to remove him from office. Senator Flake stood up to slow down the Kavanaugh hearings, and now retired, continues to criticize Trump.
These consistent few are held to be pariahs among most of the members of the Republican Party, but for a big chunk of frustrated conservatives (like me) and the rest of the world, these people are being held as heroes and exemplary models of integrity. These people actually have a spine!
And this is exactly where I see the Party surviving. Imagine if, for 2024, the Republicans put forth someone like Romney (he may be too old, himself) -- someone who people on the left might actually vote for. (Many Democrats have indeed said that they like Romney.)
Just think about it. Put on your game theory hats. If, as a Party, you had to choose between a nameless candidate who you knew would only get 30% of the vote, and another nameless one who could possibly get 60%, which one would you choose?
So ... if the Party is to survive, it needs to let go of Trump. It was a failed experiment that resulted in all power being taken away after four years (which is exactly what I had predicted in January 2016 would happen). Condemning Trump's election "Big Lie" and the resulting riot on the Capitol is the bare minimum for survival. Perhaps even someone like Cruz could find a way to redeem himself.
And then ... put forth a person in 2024 with so much integrity and leadership skills for whom it would be difficult NOT to vote.
It's up to you guys. You could stick with the man you love -- it's very easy to love Trump. But is it worth loving him more than the possibility of getting a conservative back in power? I believe there is somebody better. Does it really have to be Trump, when someone better could have a bigger chance of winning back the presidency?
I know ... I said I was done with my coronavirus newsletters, but don't worry. This is just a random coronavirus post, which I warned would come as needed.
It's no secret that I find Trump's record on coronavirus to be abysmal. And nearly every time I bring up my thoughts, someone invariably asks, "Well, what would you do differently that Trump hasn't already done?" I usually give a short answer like, "Well, just about ANYTHING." No one seems happy with that, so here we go ... now, I'm President of the United States, and it's up to me to get on top of this COVID19 pandemic. What would I do?
#1) Clear and consistent messaging from the top.
People deserve to know the facts. They don't need sugar coating and to be told lies like "we're doing just fine" and "the end is just around the corner." I would personally give frequent short updates, provide words of encouragement, and echo sound advice for fighting the pandemic. If necessary I would warn about misinformation and explain why errant allegations are wrong. I would present the message of "Let's work together to bring this pandemic to an end."
In my "private" life and tweets, I would remain consistent with the messages. None of this "masks are recommended" one day and "doesn't Mr. Johnny John look like an idiot in his mask?" the next day.
#2) Let my team of scientists and experts navigate the pandemic.
There is no place for politics in any kind of emergency. I would allow the CDC to perform to its full potential -- none of this altering their warnings to fit my agenda. I would let my coronavirus task force shine and have them appear frequently to help us get through the pandemic. I would listen to the council from these experts and provide them with what they needed in order to help bring us to the quickest end of the pandemic.
#3) Testing, testing, testing.
In order to be effective, testing needs to be done quickly with fast results so that we can have the much-needed information to fight this disease at the source. Today, a sick person must wait a couple of days just for an appointment to be tested, and then wait a few days for the results to come back. By then, he could have infected several other people.
A person should be able to wake up one morning, decide to get tested, and get results by the end of the day. And all completely free of charge. I would help provide whatever was necessary to bring this to pass.
#4) Masks everywhere.
This one is specific to COVID19 and other respiratory viruses. I would encourage mask wearing anywhere in public in inside or crowded situations. (In other words, masks not required outside when people can remain far, far apart. And no masks for younger children.)
I wouldn't push mandates, but would urge, "It's the right thing to do." Though, I would support a business's right to refuse service for patrons not wearing masks.
Masks would no longer be encouraged (locally) when certain numbers drop below specified thresholds.
#5) Effective contact tracing (behind the scenes) and quarantining.
Our current team of contact tracers is so slow, the next generation of spread has already occurred by the time they finish their sleuthing. I would ensure that teams of contact tracers across the nation are adequately staffed and trained to speed up the process, so that they can actually stop the next vectors.
I would also urge the public to cooperate with contact tracing efforts, reminding them that it's one of the easiest ways we can work together to fight the virus.
I would also provide the message that quarantines should be honored, whether it be for five days or two weeks, and let people know that it's better, faster, and more effective to quarantine individuals than to resort to an economy-destroying lockdown of everyone.
#6) Nationwide secure contact tracing mobile app.
To aid our team of contact tracers, I would have a nationwide mobile app developed using a secure and private shell, much like the current Apple/Google shell being used in several countries throughout the world. And though it wouldn't be compulsory, I would encourage everyone to use it. (You can see my thoughts about privacy concerns and other considerations here. The Apple/Google shell actually protects your privacy more than just about any other app on your phone.)
This app would be able to identify some exposed individuals faster than human contact tracing. The indications would then help to quarantine individuals, and businesses would be allowed to require certain statuses for patronage.
Up to here, I think Biden will definitely up the game with steps #1-#4, and I suspect #5 may also be part of his behind-the-scenes plans, but I haven't heard anything about #6, which is kind of disappointing (to me, a process improvement/automation guru). Either way, Trump has woefully failed in all 6 steps.
#7) Financial support for people in quarantine.
Those forced or requested to go into quarantine should receive immediate financial support if they are unable to work from home. For every day off of work, they should receive the same payment they would have received. For exempt workers, credits would be paid to the companies so sick days can be preserved. (This may be subject to caps.)
No employer would be allowed to fire anyone for being placed in quarantine.
#8) Work to keep everything open.
Doing all of the above are all bare minimum requirements for getting on top of a disease like COVID19. It is what I frequently like to call "Stage 1 understanding." And it's been one of my biggest frustrations with my country's handling of this situation. We've been spending an inordinate amount of energy trying to get all Americans on the same page, but it's only the First Page. Failing to achieve this minimum has been a disaster, helping us to achieve one of the top ten spots for deaths per capita in the world.
The countries that have been successful have already incorporated steps #1-#7 in some shape or form, and in each case it helps to bring everyone to the Second Page or "Stage 2 understanding." With everyone paying attention, the people can then be educated on how to keep everything open while still navigating the plague, until it's entirely eradicated. I'm talking dining inside, schools open, less need of social distancing, masks not needed in some circumstances -- because people would be employing other mitigation factors such as increasing air flow in buildings to dissipate aerosols (some places in the US are already doing this, BTW).
If we had we instituted steps #1-#7 immediately starting in late January 2020 or maybe even early February, we could have AVOIDED all the lockdowns in March, and we would be enjoying positive GPD growth, and then we would have been a huge example to the rest of the world, which would have helped to inspire others to take similar measures and possibly even help to bring a worldwide end to the pandemic by the close of 2020.
We are only in our current situation because we let it get bad in the early stages, and it hasn't gotten better since.
#9) Continued Monitoring.
At the end of the pandemic, the job would not be done. Sure, masks would come off, the automated contact tracing app would be disabled, and so on, but teams would still be on the lookout for the next pandemic behind the scenes. And when the next one comes (and it will), we would be ready. It would be like invoking some Order 66 and the American citizens would immediately know to institute steps #1-#7 in order to achieve #8, kill off the plague, and save lives. Depending on the nature of the outbreak, any modified steps would be quickly communicated.
Final Thoughts
I realize that a lot of this relies on 20/20 hindsight (yeah -- boo!), which is very easy for me to do right now. When COVID19 first started out, we didn't really understand how bad it could get. Would mitigation measures harm or do good? Would we be reacting over "nothing"? Everyone throughout the world was slow to take this seriously: China, the WHO, the CDC. Even though it was novel and already causing death, people were just afraid of overreacting.
In only a couple of months, China had a breakout worse than all other SARS outbreaks that proceeded it until they admitted it existed and stopped trying to cover it up. And then they quickly clamped down on it with much success, but not before it was already unleashed to the rest of the world.
Other Asian countries such as Korea and Japan acted quickly -- masks came up, and just like an Order 66, the public seemed to already know what to do to stem the spread. This is because these countries had real experience from prior outbreaks. They knew what they did wrong previously and they made sure not to do it again. They WORKED TOGETHER.
In April 2020, I was willing to give Trump a Mulligan, because we haven't really had that experience with a deadly virus. (Except for Ebola, which was immediately eradicated in the US because of some awesome very fast action by our government behind the scenes -- we knew that bug was dangerous and took care of it from Day 1.) I could see that Trump was trying. Perhaps I would have likewise been caught off guard. I've learned most of my knowledge on outbreaks after March 1, when it was already too late. But then again, I probably would have been more open than Trump to listen to epidemiologists who were already sounding warning bells as early as January.
I did try to get people to support Trump in April, because he was kind-of going in the right direction with his daily briefings, though he was still struggling. I feared that if he were to ever give up, we'd be doomed, so I tried to get people to reinforce Trump's good actions and make him want to keep on going. But when he was ridiculed about the detergent, he gave up entirely, and after that (since May), he hasn't really done anything.
Well ... except for some of behind-the-scene things he did such as supplying certain emergency equipment, perhaps helping to get some financial aid passed, and also providing financial incentives to help produce a vaccine ... Trump does get praise for these actions. However, I see these as the super minimum things any president would have instituted, and so, I didn't include any of that in my steps above. Also, I did say I'm focusing on things Trump hasn't done that I would do. As it stands, we lost far more lives through Trump's inaction than we saved lives through what he did right.
However, I can say this going forward. We now have experience ... recent experience with a deadly pandemic, and hopefully we will be able to see our successes and our mistakes, and next time hopefully we'll do what we know works. If I were president, I would make sure it would happen as detailed above.
And now that we have come to the end of this blog post, I'm no longer president. It was fun while it lasted. Did I tell you they have really good breakfasts?
Yeah ... you read that right. I'm done. I've been writing these newsletters for months now -- first on my Facebook page, and then over here on this blog. It's been fun, but ... let's face it ... it's pretty much too late to do anything anymore. Just hunker down and wait for what's coming over the next couple of grim months. Plus, I need a break, and starting the first week in January, I'm going to launch a whole new and exciting initiative.
I'll continue doing my weekly model updates on my Facebook page (which last run showed us hitting 400k total deaths by around January 20-ish). And I'll continue updating my deaths per million graphs once a month going forward (on Facebook). And every now and then when I feel like it, I'll come back and give a few more "Coronavirus Updates."
So, one more general update, and then some closing thoughts.
General Update
It's bad out there ... just bad. Practically all states are red on the hotspot map, except for Maine, Vermont, and Hawaii.
Hospitals continue to fill up. You can check statuses on that here.
Cases per Capita -- last 7 days:
Worst States: Rhode Island, Indiana, Alaska (wha?), Idaho, Kansas
Best States: Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, Oregon, Washington
North Carolina: Cases have skyrocket this last week. Forsyth County is increasing, but not in the top 20 counties.
Deaths per Capita -- last 7 days:
Worst States: South Dakota, North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Rhode Island
Best States: Hawaii, Washington, Maine, Virginia, Vermont
The Pfizer vaccine is about to start rolling out, as it is now approved by the FDA for emergency use. Though, we're not entirely sure if it was under duress with President Trump's threats to fire the head of the FDA.
Most of my readers will not be eligible for the first round, and we'll run out of doses. But don't worry -- other vaccines are likely to be approved shortly.
Emergency use means that the government will continue to monitor the vaccine and halt it if it turns out to have too many adverse effects or turns us into zombies. Two possibly identified side effects may be intense allergic reactions for those who use epipens (but no reports of anaphylactic shock), and possibly Bell's Palsy (it may have been a coincidence, but it was statistically significant). If you want to learn more about these, check out this Reuters fact check.
Hopefully this and other vaccines will help get R(t) < 1.0 and kill off the virus.
Farewell
Okay -- time for final words.
The good news is that every day, more and more people get on board. A majority of the people are sincerely working hard to fight the virus. They wear their masks, practice social distancing, and do whatever else they understand to help out and do their part. We are now estimated to be at around 73% mask coverage -- higher from 70% a couple of weeks ago.
The bad news is that the other 20%-30% are still fighting this. They fear that their rights are being taken away. Or they believe that since they're under 55 years old, they have no need to be careful, and let the vulnerable people fend for themselves (it's their fault if they catch the virus).
Unfortunately, this minority is responsible for the vast majority (85%+) of the spread of the virus in our nation -- whether it be through spreading misinformation or the virus itself through sick or asymptomatic spread.
Sadly 27% of us not wearing masks still provides the virus plenty of fuel for spreading and maximizing death.
If you haven't already, I highly recommend reading the following three newsletters, which I consider to be by far the most important posts I've written concerning the fight against the virus.
What Can You Do To Stop the Spread? -- Learn the simple steps that *you* can do to help join the fight against the virus and save lives. You can also see a list of actions to avoid.
The Simplicity -- What is the main goal of fighting the virus? R(t) < 1.000. But what does that mean? Click here to learn more about what we've learned from several outbreaks in the past.
The Loudness -- Learn about the nefarious forces that are intentionally trying to use the pandemic to weaken our country. Once you learn to recognize the signs, you will instantly realize how *you* can help to fight the virus effectively.
By far, President Trump, Dr. Scott Atlas (a radiologist?), and a couple of rogue epidemiologists, are the most responsible for the spread of the virus in our nation. They have done so through their teachings, rhetoric, and actions. If you read those three articles and strive to understand them, then you, too, should be able to see this as well. Use these people as an example of what NOT to do.
I think it really will get better when Biden takes office in January. Then we will have much more consistent messaging coming from the top, and hopefully there will be a lot less confusion and nonsense coming from the minority.
We shall see. It's not too late to join the fight against the virus. Join the majority who are already doing it. Working together, we can stop this virus.
Well ... you all can stop this virus. I've already done more than my fair share to fight the most disruptive virus in my lifetime, and my conscious is fully clear. Eventually I'll be back after the dose of reality we're all going to get in the next few weeks. But for now, I'm going to enjoy Christmas. I'm going to relax. And hopefully this annoying cough that I've just now developed is going to go away.
I wish you all well, and I'll see y'all on the other side.
What do 2000, 2004, and 2016 have in common? They were all closer than the 2020 election. And still one month later, Trump is still trying to overturn the results? Why? What are his ultimate goals?
Before I continue ... a quick word to my conservative friends, of which there are many who sincerely just want to see Trump serve four more years. And I get it ... I hate it when my candidate loses. I really wanted Romney to win in 2012, but got four more years of Obama instead.
My friends are great ... and they give me a lot of leeway. But I am very concerned -- not only for our country, but also for my conservative friends, who I believe to be deceived by a charlatan. I've been trying since early 2016 trying to convince them that Trump is not the best pick for a conservative candidate, of which my friends are fully aware.
I am in no way concerned about Trump actually winning, but I am very concerned with what comes next. So, perhaps I'm writing to prepare my friends. I'm also hoping to save what's left of the conservative party I used to love. As I've said before to my friends, I'm playing the long game -- I would love to see conservatives back in power, but we've got to remove this cancer that has infected us, and I'm hoping to help bring some of this to light.
I see this (sincerely) as the first step for preparing for 2024 -- if conservatives want to have any hope of regaining power, the Trump just has to go. He lost, and as I'm about to show, the widespread fraud that he claims just doesn't exist ... at least not to any degree that could overturn the results.
In 2000, Bush beat Gore in the state of Florida by less than a 1000 votes. That was CRAZY! This time 20 years ago, I really had no idea who are next president was going to be -- it was that close. Gore really could have won.
Bush won the original count in Florida, and he won the automatic recount (though his lead narrowed some). And here I lose count, but he won all subsequent full and partial recounts until the Supreme Court finally put it to rest just in time for the electoral college to vote in December.
Did Gore have the right to do what he did? Heck yeah. The first recount was automatic. And he had the right to request another recount. I did not agree with his creative counting, but I do not fault Gore one bit -- he fought till the end.
The same happened also in 2004 and 2016, but to a much lesser degree. Both Kerry and Hilary asked for recounts in battleground states -- there was at least hope for them for a turnaround in the vote. And there was nothing wrong with that.
Technically, there's nothing wrong with Trump in 2020 doing the same thing as Gore, Kerry, and Hilary: asking for recounts and launching lawsuits, but -- oh my -- the degree that he's chosen to carry this makes 2000 look like nothing. But the funny thing is ... Gore ACTUALLY HAD A CHANCE with less than 1000 votes separating him from the presidency. Can Trump really hope to achieve what Gore couldn't? The mathematician in me knows it's not going to happen, as there are hundreds of thousands of votes standing in his way. And get this ... Biden's leads in most of these battleground are actually LARGER than what Trump won in those same states in 2016.
And so far Trump is keeping everything "legal," but he's now starting to put pressure on conservative legislatures to send alternative electors to the vote next week, which would be very ... interesting. However, I believe that what he is doing now is still damaging the trust in our own democracy. Trump believes (or he says he believes) that he lost the election because of fraud, and many of his base believe him ... so much that they're willing to give him hundreds of millions of dollars AFTER ELECTION DAY, protest, and otherwise try to pressure legislatures.
But where is the fraud? One of my friends argues: "If they're really good at the fraud, you're not going to be able to see it, and that's why we have to stop it." This is all well and good, but in order for judges to do anything, it has to be something ACTIONABLE. That is, something you can point to and say, "See here?" and they look and have no choice but to rule "fraud." But this just isn't happening. (Have patience ... I'm getting there.)
So far, judges are throwing the vast majority of these cases out ... with prejudice even, and not just liberal judges, but even conservative judges ... some of whom Trump, himself, appointed. Conservative secretaries in several states (who voted for Trump and want him to win) are testifying there is no fraud. Even people high up in Trump's cabinet are testifying there is no fraud -- knowing they may very likely lose their jobs.
As for myself, I've found that I can take most claims that Trump and his team come up with, do just a little bit of research, and discover with ease that they're false or unprovable -- it's not really that hard. Information is readily available on the webs -- you just have to be willing to go past the one or two sources most ultra-conservatives hit (which apparently does not include Fox News right now -- so funny!).
This is also the MOST AUDITED election the US has ever had. It almost had to be because Trump kept talking about voting fraud for the entire four years in office. There were measures that he himself helped to be instituted to fight fraud. So, Trump is at a catch-22 here ... either he really lost the election or he really failed to stop fraud.
And the best part ... every state has a freakin paper trail. We saw in Georgia, which uses the Dominion software, that their hand recount came out very close to the first count, and the same with the second recount that just now finished. If Dominion had been flipping votes as Trump insists, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN CAUGHT IN THESE HAND RECOUNTS. I would swear this on my whole career as a mathematician, actuary, modeler, and audit-minded dude. I have to deal with auditors all the time, and believe me ... you can't get anything past those guys.
But where to even begin with the debunking of Trump's claims? It would take forever because there is so much -- Trump is very prolific. The best I can do is to hit the claims in classes. Perhaps it would be good for you to start with this recent debunking by the BBC.
One of my favorites is from that article ...
Dead People Voting
Just one year ago, I sincerely believe that dead people were voting, but then I saw the movie "Selma," and then I realized what's really going on. I reexamined the dead people voting claims I've heard throughout the years -- and sure enough ... it's mostly no proof at all, or hearsay, or misunderstandings (except for onesies/twosies here and there).
As the BBC article above indicates, they looked into a list of 10,000 identified dead people who voted, took a random sample and then performed research. Out of 31, they found 28 were still alive, 1 was a real case of a dead person trying to vote ... but the vote had already been tossed out, and 2 cases of people who had died within weeks of the election (alive when they sent the ballots). You can get even more information on this research here.
The situations uncovered (from that article and others like it):
Some of the alive people on the list had names coinciding with people of the same name in the same state (and sometimes even the same birthday) who had died. (When you have millions of people in a state, the chances of this happening are actually quite high -- which I may explain one day.)
People who were able to confirm that they were truly alive.
Cases of Jr / Sr confusion.
Cases of a wife signing her name as her husband (Mrs. John Doe), like they used to do in the olden days.
More People Voting Than Registered
Think about it: if this were really going on, it would be very easy to prove. I've looked at a few of these, and in all cases, the numbers being used were outright wrong, and it was very easy to find the right numbers.
For example, consider this picture retweeted by Trump on Nov. 27:
In case this picture gets deleted, it shows: PA mailed out 1,823,148 ballots. 1,462,302 were returned. However, PA reported 2,589,242 mail ballots tabulated. Where did 1,126,940 votes come from?
Sounds like a slam dunk case of fraud caught with its pants down. But wait just a second. What happens if I were to do something different ... like ... look up the numbers myself?
The U.S. Elections Project does a pretty good compiling statewide voting data. You'll find these may be a little off from earlier reported numbers due to timing issues, but they are pretty close to the supposed 11/24 numbers -- except for one exception. The total number of ballots requested was 3,087,524 (the number I see today). Not 1,823,148.
Some sites conjecture that the person compiling the 1,823,148 number either got the Democrat requested (1,941,131) mixed up with the total requested. Or perhaps the number came from the Primary election and not the General. In either case, it didn't take very long to confirm that 1,823,148 was never right at any time.
When Trump decided to retweet this errant, he could have taken five minutes to do the same kind of research, but instead he chose to propagate this misinformation. Either because he was lazy, or he was simply forwarding what he wanted to hear, and damn the consequences. Hopefully you didn't fall for the same trap.
This is just one example, but I'll leave you with a challenge. Trump's team has uncovered plenty of these types of bad data. Wherever you hear that 120% of the people voted, or any variation of "more than registered," I bet you can find the true numbers and see that the allegations are plain wrong. I've done it a few times, and it really is eye-opening.
Strange Vote Surges
In the picture at the very top of this post, Trump is holding a timeline of the vote counts in Wisconsin, showing how he was winning and then ... BAM ... all these Biden votes come in one big surge ... just enough to put Biden into the lead.
And again, there was this strange one in Michigan (a famous screen shot that Trump retweeted):
The numbers are really small in this graphic, but it shows absolutely no change in the vote counts for Trump, but it shows an increase of 128k votes for Biden. Trump is in the lead in both pictures. What up with that?
For the Michigan surge, we know that it was a human error -- a typo from one county that was corrected. In fact, Matt Mackowiak deleted his initial tweet the very next day, because he knew it was a non-event. In a review, the error was found and corrected -- it was only a matter of time before it would be discovered.
The surge in Wisconsin is more of a case of "so what?" Votes aren't all counted simultaneously. If you look at the entire graph, you'll see surges for both candidates throughout the whole night. Most likely, a big (blue) county reported its large number of results all at the same time, giving a large boost to Biden. Timing of reports just isn't any kind of evidence of fraud.
Though, didn't anyone else find it strange that Trump tried to claim victory in several battleground states in his late night speech on Election Night -- even before there were still many votes left to tabulate? And at the same time, wasn't it funny that Trump tried to stop the votes where he was in the lead, but not in states where he had fallen behind? (If you look at Trump's words more closely, you'll see a lot of these types of contradictions -- it's very strange how many people seem to be missing this.)
Shenanigans at Voting Precincts
There are a lot of unsubstantiated reports of strange happenings at precincts. Reports of shredding, pulling ballots from under tables, trucks delivering many votes for Biden and other Democrats, running selected ballots through the machines multiple times, using sharpies to sabotage the ballots, and so on. I'm not going to try to attack specific cases, but in general:
Voting precincts will tell you exactly what they were shredding (blank envelopes, faxes, duplicate documents, etc.) and report that they can produce all the ballots as needed because they've kept them all -- and yes -- all the mail-in ballots have creases (in some states).
There were indeed trucks delivering certain items such as food, equipment, etc., but there is absolutely no evidence that generated ballots (that is, not filled out by real people) were in any of these trucks. The lack of evidence means nothing for judges to act on. In many cases, the precincts will tell you what was in those trucks. For a fraud claim to be any good, evidence has to be ACTIONABLE.
Some districts were indeed running ballots through multiple times any time a batch was thrown out due to an error (thus requiring a rerunning of all the ballots in the batch once the error was fixed).
Any ballots that can't be read by computers must be handled by hand. This is standard practice in ALL states. It's silly to think a sharpie could sabotage a ballot, because a human being could clearly see what was marked.
I will hit the "ballots from under tables" thing separately here, because it's by far the most annoying. We have a video from Georgia that shows a "mysterious" table that is pretty much left alone all day, and then people are told to go home around 10:30, and as soon as they leave, election workers pull out these four bins of ballots and resume counting. How do we know this happened? Because the narrator of the video told us.
But when you talk to people who were actually in the room, they tell a different story. I won't go into it here, because I'm sure you've already looked it up. But I don't think it really matters, because, we, on the outside, don't know exactly what was in those bins. Yet there exists a perfectly plausible scenario ... (I figure if others can conjecture, so can I, and it took me less than a minute to think this one up) ... those were early vote or absentee vote ballots.
According to Georgia law votes can't officially start to be counted until 7PM on election date. However, the earlier ballots can be preprocessed -- verified and scanned -- anything but counted.
So, you have all the Election Day ballots. The first thing you're going to do is verify and scan those puppies, and then start the counting process at 7PM. At some time during the night, you're going to pull out all those earlier ballots that have already been preprocessed and start counting those -- but you don't have to do so much with them because they're already preprocessed.
Yeah ... maybe it's my wishful thinking -- I don't know what was in those bins, and you don't know, either. We can only speculate (or ask the election workers).
Again, there is no ACTIONABLE evidence that those ballots were pre-generated Biden votes. No evidence, no case, and absolutely no convictions on PURE SPECULATION in our justice system.
Dominion Vote Flipping Again, there is no evidence that this is happening. In fact, as I've said above, if there were vote flipping, it would have been caught by the hand recount in Georgia ... BOTH TIMES. And it wasn't.
I realize there's that stupid tweet going around today about running an equal number of Trump and Biden votes through a "sequestered Dominion" machine, which showed a 26% lead for Biden. 37 votes were flipped. The argument continues that if that same flipping rate flowed throughout the whole country, then Trump really did beat Biden in the popular vote!
First off, it's a very strange coincidence that 37 additional votes were indeed awarded to Trump in Ware County after an audit revealed an error. That's 37 votes for the entire county ... not from some random small test. I'm thinking someone got their signals crossed.
And who exactly performed this test? And where exactly is this sequestered machine? Evidently Debbie Browning of the Tift County knows, but then it turns out that she doesn't know, but her friend knows. See where I'm going with this?
So again ... no ACTIONABLE evidence. And certainly one could recreate the experiment just for kicks ... that's how science works. But there's no reason to do so when the alleged "bad" test can't even be proven to have taken place.
As many secretaries and even the DOJ have attested, there is absolutely no evidence of vote flipping by computer software.
Republican Leaders Attesting to No Fraud
This is probably one of the biggest puzzles to many conservatives. Why is it that Attorney General Barr, Chris Krebs of election security, several secretaries of state, the governor of Georgia, and several other conservative officials -- who most likely voted for Trump and wanted him to win -- all testified that no substantial fraud existed in this election and that the results are the most accurate results yet produced? Could they all be in the pocket of China?
It may seem like cognitive dissonance, but maybe -- just maybe, there wasn't really any fraud? The fact that all these guys are strong conservatives gives more credence to the idea that there really is something to this idea.
I strongly recommend watching this entire interview of Chris Krebs (13 minutes well spent if you want to get down to the truth), who spent two years beefing up election security throughout the nation, only to be fired by Trump for DOING A GOOD JOB and then be accused of intentionally sabotaging the election.
Republican Hearings
People ask me why I'm not watching these hearings. They think if I watch, I will be impressed with the mountain of evidence and finally be won over. And my answer: it's all a big waste of time. It's one big show with no substance. It reminds me of that Simpsons episode where Homer complains about a pail of bad shrimp, and when Apu throws in another pail, Homer says, "Woohoo!"
I see it as no different than what the Democrats tried to do in the Kavanaugh hearings. All for show, and accomplishing nothing. These are all hearings, and not binding courts of any kind. That's why the mainstream media isn't covering them -- because they're inconsequential.
They're also hilarious ... at least bits and pieces that I've captured. SNL did a good job covering lots of the funny business ... and then I come to learn that most of what they made fun of actually happened! The funny witnesses, the terrible proceedings, and even the MyPillow Guy in the mix.
Most of what happens in these hearings are more of "all the above" that I've covered in classes. None of it is ACTIONABLE. Or it's bad data that's easy to disprove. Or PURE SPECULATION impossible to prove. If anything, I believe these hearings just make Trump and the entire Republican Party look bad, drastically lowering the chances of the two conservative Senator candidates being chosen in the next couple of weeks, giving all power to Biden. And possibly damaging the Republican Party for 2024 chances as well. But we'll see ... sometimes our memories are short.
Alternative Theory
I actually have an alternative theory that fits Occam's Razor pretty nicely.
I think that Trump planned all of this from the beginning. When the coronavirus hit, and things weren't going his way, he knew that his chances of winning in 2020 were dwindling.
He saw early on that Democrats were more likely to be scared of the virus and be more likely to use mail-in ballots. It would take time for these ballots to be delivered in the mail, and some would even come in after Election Day (but postmarked on or before Election Day). He also knew that Election Day votes would be counted first, which would show bias toward Trump, and that more Biden votes would appear the next day and later when states started counting more mail ballots. I explain all of this in this analysis.
So, what did Trump do? He went after mail-in ballots, claiming they were bastions of fraud. He went after drop boxes, knowing it would make it harder for people to get their votes in on time (would you believe one county cellophaned their only drop box and marked it CLOSED?) His appointee instituted several new policies to slow down the mail, including dismantling automated sorting machines ... though most of these were reversed. He went after ballot receipt deadlines.
Trump floating the idea that the Americans deserved to know the winner on Election Night, as if it were a Constitutional right, which is far from the truth. There has never been an election when all votes are finished tabulated that night. (Alaska, anyone?) That's why the Constitution allows for weeks for the votes to be tabulated before the electoral college votes in December.
But sure enough, Trump claimed victory in several battleground states while they were still counting -- where he was far from mathematically clinching the majorities.
And then he did what no other candidate had done in the past. He sued for some states to stop counting, when they hadn't even FINISHED THEIR FIRST COUNT. In 2000, 2004, 2016, each losing candidate at least waited for each state to finish their original count before taking any kind of action.
And as each stage of Trump's plan failed, he moved on to the next stage: suing to stop certifications, trying to get state legislatures to send alternative electors, and I'm not sure what comes next. Maybe after today he's done?
Perhaps he truly thinks that fraud occurred, and he's sincerely trying his hardest to expose it. But my alternative theory makes a lot of sense: Trump simply wants to stop the Biden votes. Attack the mail, the ballots, the timing, ... anything to keep power.
And yes, from where I stand, I see one the biggest onslaughts ever taken by a sitting president on our Constitution -- almost as if trying to pull what Putin successfully pulled off in his country earlier this year. And I can't tell you how elated I am to see that the Constitution is surviving this onslaught, and how I can fully appreciate the wisdom of our Founding Fathers when they created our government. It really gives me hope for the future of this country, for the first time in years.
Yes, it could just be my theory ... but man, does it fit the observations quite nicely!
Closing Thoughts
Whatever happens, we're in this together. I am pretty tough on Trump in this blog post, but I believe it's warranted. It's not directed toward any of my readers. I do not condemn anyone who voted for Trump. I fully understand why you like him. He does have some good traits that liberals have a hard time seeing.
Do you remember the protests four years ago and the whole "Resist" and "He is Not My President" movements? Do you remember how conservatives felt these movements were unconstitutional and disrespectful to the office of the president? Do you remember many saying how un-American it was?
I would likewise love to see all of you resist the temptation to do exactly the same when the electors choose Biden to be our next president next week. I hope you don't stoop to the same level and ignore the system that our Constitution has set up. The last thing I would want to see is a stupid civil war because some can't accept our chosen president as President.
More urgently, I'd like to say this to my conservative Georgia friends (of which there are many): you had better go vote in the special election. I really don't understand this self-destructive movement to boycott the vote because Trump is losing his election. I'll reiterate something I've said at least twice this year: if you don't go vote, I believe you will lose the right to complain about Biden getting full power when both Senate seats go to the Democrats. If you don't want Biden to get this power, then NOW is the time to act. Put it on your calendar: January 5, 2021. There is only one way for you to help keep the Senate red -- go vote! I know you have a beef about the Republican Party not supporting Trump, but the time will come later to take care of that.
Eventually I believe that this will all pass. My wife implies to me that I don't have to write this post, but you know me -- when I have something to say, I don't mind saying it. I'm hoping that going forward we can work together to find someone else better than Trump for 2024 who can do a much better job of reuniting America and truly strengthen our country. I think ultimately, we will figure it out.
How is it that the smartest country in the world with the most resources and innovation has people who still believe the coronavirus is a hoax? More to come after the latest news ...
General Update
Numbers are rising again in the US after a Thanksgiving reporting lag. It may take another week for the numbers to stabilize, but it seems clear that we're on the rise again. Deaths are now happening at their highest rate ever -- even more than in April, our last peak. And there is no sign that it's slowing down.
Cases per capita -- last 7 days:
Worst states: Minnesota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wyoming, Indiana.
Best states: Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, Virginia, Washington
Deaths per capita -- last 7 days:
Worst states: South Dakota, North Dakota, Iowa, New Mexico, Nebraska
Best states: Hawaii, Virginia, Vermont, California, Delaware
Not a Hoax
Now, back to my rant.
There's no nice way to put this, but how dumb can people be? How clueless can they be as to what's happening around the world? How many of their friends have to die before they accept that this is a 1 in 100 year event?
Actually, I can answer that last question. People who are actually experiencing this virus know beyond a shadow of a doubt that this virus is real, it kills, and it delivers a lot of pain and grief. Even the most stubborn of us will change our tune when faced with enough reality. How many times have you heard people who said, "It's a hoax," only to catch the virus and then tell all their friends that it's NOT a hoax?
So, for today, I thought I'd present a few videos to help you glimpse what it looks like at the end. Some of these are sad, but I want you to realize, this could happen to you, or it could happen to your friend or family member.
I'll start with this video from a mom in her final stages before dying talking about what it's like and why we need to avoid the virus.
Or perhaps you'd like to see it from a doctor's perspective. This is the somewhat famous Dr. Joseph Varon in Texas -- a frontline worker.
That was back in July, but here's an update from a couple of days ago ... he's been working nonstop over 250 days straight. His main frustration is that as soon as he helps one batch of people, there's another waiting, many of whom are doing the exact opposite of what the scientists and doctors have been asking us to do.
As he says in both videos: I'm fighting two wars ... one against the virus, and one against stupidity.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/health-55190012
It's one thing to praise our hospitals for saving lives with incredible procedures, but it's another to indicate that it's fine for people to get sick because the hospitals can handle them (flattening the curve). As I hope you learn from these videos, that no ... they're really not handling it. They're getting exhausted, and the worst is yet to come the next few weeks.
And finally one more ... an interview of funeral directors ... an interesting perspective:
At the end of that video, a director says: After this, my job has become easy -- nothing will ever be that difficult again. And this is a similar theme I keep hearing from hospitals and morgues: nothing like this has ever happened in their experience, and they can't wait till it's over to get back to the easy stuff.
And finally ... one last thing to consider. If you've been posting for months about how this virus is a hoax, keep in mind that those posts on Facebook and Twitter are forever. People are going to remember you as the crazy person who believed it was a hoax when there was so much evidence to the contrary. I only tell you this now because you get one more chance ... because after a few weeks from now, it's going to be too late. After the darkest winter anyone will have witnessed in their lifetime here in the US, we're going to remember the people who helped to spread the virus, and I don't think you would want to be remembered that way.
It's not to late to join the majority who are increasingly doing more to work together in fighting the virus. Together we can stop the death, so I invite you to join now ... drop the hoax act and fulfill your patriotic duty, and do your part.
... Or not. You're free to choose your own path, but you don't get to choose the consequences.
